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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Thank you for proving my point. 

That you have no idea what "record" means? That no matter what the data says, you won't admit that actually we're chugging along? 

I'll give you debt. It's insane. I hope you'll give me:

Inflation is coming down.

The Fed, believe it or not, has not put us in recession (yet).

GDP is decently strong.

Unemployment is ridiculously low.

Stock market (which I think is a bad measure of "economy") is up 13.5% off the lows.

Could it all change next month? Sure, but for right now despite all the hand-wringing in the headlines, things are doing pretty good.

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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23 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

 

It's all going too smoothly, which makes me nervous. I have no idea how you move rates from 0% -> 5% in under a year and nothing breaks. Somehow, so far they've figured it out.

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Whats the argument now?

Inflation in terms of absolute cost of things is still extremely high, because they had been accelerating the last 2 years.

Inflation in terms of annual change is high, because of the above.

The rate of change is decreasing, because lots of the commodities and other supply chain inputs are getting back to reasonable prices. Energy still moderate high. Housing seems sticky high. 

Compared to months past the prices are no longer ‘running away’. Compared to the rate most deem stable and appropriate (2%) they are still well north of that. 

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5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Whats the argument now?

Inflation in terms of absolute cost of things is still extremely high, because they had been accelerating the last 2 years.

Inflation in terms of annual change is high, because of the above.

The rate of change is decreasing, because lots of the commodities and other supply chain inputs are getting back to reasonable prices. Energy still moderate high. Housing seems sticky high. 

Compared to months past the prices are no longer ‘running away’. Compared to the rate most deem stable and appropriate (2%) they are still well north of that. 

Wow.  Thanks for the education.  It's almost as if you don't know what the underlying message is.  LMAO.  This place is fucked.

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9 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Pretty sure you can move that slider for the start point back to 1970 to see the (initial) point where the slope changed.  It's a measure of the fiat dollar's failure as a store of value.

Can’t wait to see who takes offense to this

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16 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Pretty sure you can move that slider for the start point back to 1970 to see the (initial) point where the slope changed.  It's a measure of the fiat dollar's failure as a store of value.

 

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

Can’t wait to see who takes offense to this

The conversation is happening at the link below. Feel free to join in. 

 

 

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19 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wow.  Thanks for the education.  It's almost as if you don't know what the underlying message is.  LMAO.  This place is fucked.

I didnt seek to counterargue you or anyone else. Truthfully I don’t even know what your ‘message’ is.

The last few posts, to which I formed my response, was back and forth “is inflation high or not”. 

My response was it depends on the specific measure (yoy, mom, spot price) because no single binary answer covers the full context of the time series.

Whats your grievance with that?

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So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

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21 minutes ago, B00M said:

So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- most of you are rooting for higher inflation.  

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1 hour ago, B00M said:

So you’re once again vaguely accusing no one in particular of injecting politics? Why? 

Because the tone of the thread is pessimistic despite the short term trends being modestly encouraging? in a thread about all of us getting poorer and hanging on the decisions of an unelected body……… you think the only explanation for cynicism is… anti-left politics? 

Go outside man 

 

Much of the world is experiencing inflation issues. The US is handling it better than most, but middle of the pack for G20 countries. Yes, inflation sucks, but it’s okay to celebrate the recent downward trend 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

I went outside, but it’s pretty cold. I’m going to make some soup. 

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Much of the world is experiencing inflation issues. The US is handling it better than most, but middle of the pack for G20 countries. Yes, inflation sucks, but it’s okay to celebrate the recent downward trend 

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate

I went outside, but it’s pretty cold. I’m going to make some soup. 

Totally agreed

 

 

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- most of you are rooting for higher inflation.  

Angry Season 2 GIF by The Office

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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Inflation can't go from 9% to 2% without going through 6.5%.  We all know what the underlying theme here is.  D out front should have told ya'.

“Inflation is decelerating, as some of its components have come down, but others remain high, so the net basket still remains above normal”


my man, how do read politics from that, particularly which direction is being cheered for? 

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Inflation numbers are rear view mirror calculations, and housing in particular significantly lags. Economists peering into the latest numbers pretty much agree that inflation is coming down now pretty rapidly, which is why there won’t likely be 50 point basis increases anymore unless inflation reignites. 

What’s ridiculous about the political arguments is the fact that both parties contributed to the problem, with the Republicans starting it and the Democrats not being sensitive enough to adjust policies to address it fast enough. 

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9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

What’s ridiculous about the political arguments

What’s ridiculous is there isn’t any political argument being posted except by JJ.

Dude denied there was an inflation issue right up until the 9.4% posted.  Wonder why……?

Edited by Incredulity
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8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I thought it was washpark and his deflationary headwinds that was the last holdout to recognize inflation was actually happening.

You're not actually taking @Incredulity at his word, are you?  He's lying.  I've acknowledged current inflation for quite some time.  It's right here in this thread.

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I'd like to see you prove that I denied inflation until the summer of 2022.  I mean, it's your assertion, you must have proof, given that you're absolutely obsessed with me.

(Here, I'll help you out.  I acknowledged the spike in inflation some 8-9 months before that high print, right here in this thread.  Oops.)

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OK, not worth the effort I've put into it, much less any more.  Proof positive of your lies, almost 9 months to the day prior to the peak 9.1% inflation print:

On 10/22/2021 at 11:52 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Please blow me, and after you do that, go back and look at the point in time I was talking about.  I have never denied current inflation.

 

 

 

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