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Left Behind: A Quick Dose Of Post Big 12 Reality


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10 minutes ago, The Other White Meat said:

I think for the PAC it shouldn't be about increasing the size of the pie necessarily but about expanding into the central timezone to gain more visibility on the national stage. Add a couple of programs like Tech and  OkSt that are respectable enough to keep the pie relatively the same size but now you have kickoffs that people on the east coast might actually see.

Agreed. The Pac needs to be careful. They need to add tech and okst, not for tv revenue but for continued viability as a league. All these leagues need to get to 16 asap. If they dont they leave themselves open to purging. Hell the sec may snatch up their flagship programs if they are not careful. 

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Random thoughts:

1. Baylor (HAHAHAHAHHAHA)

2. Keeping the Big XII together seems to be a fools errand, but only being considered while the marketable schools find a better path.

3. If one or two more leave, I think it becomes obvious to everyone that it's over.

4. If the Big XII folds, who do we make the check out to?

5. I seriously doubt TCU to the Pac, Cal Berkley was adamant last time that they would vote against any religious school, I don't think they would admit a school with Christian in their name and have any leg to stand on in the future.

6. I remember being told by a trusted source that our move to the Pac was a "done deal" last time. Then he called me up and said "the networks just offered crazy money to stay together" (Paying the remaining schools the same as if they were 12) and the whole thing stopped. This aint over until it's over.

7. Same source says "Sharp is doing everything he can" to stop us.

8. See #1 

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I think for the PAC it shouldn't be about increasing the size of the pie necessarily but about expanding into the central timezone to gain more visibility on the national stage. Add a couple of programs like Tech and  OkSt that are respectable enough to keep the pie relatively the same size but now you have kickoffs that people on the east coast might actually see.

I don’t get the time zone argument. The PAC is free to have 11am, 2pm, and 5pm PST kickoff times right now which would put their games in prime viewing windows. The issue is that no national networks want to broadcast their games during the prime slots. Adding OSU and TTU isn’t going to fix that problem.
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A quick dose of post Big12 reality?

 

There is only the SEC, Clemson and Ohio St now. College football is becoming more regionalized rapidly. TV #'s will be great in the south and Ohio, the rest of the country will tune out. College football is the new NASCAR. Fanbase of folks from Mississippi, Bama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Florida, Ohio, Georgia and South Carolina. 

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2 hours ago, 927 E. 41st said:

Random thoughts:

1. Baylor (HAHAHAHAHHAHA)

2. Keeping the Big XII together seems to be a fools errand, but only being considered while the marketable schools find a better path.

3. If one or two more leave, I think it becomes obvious to everyone that it's over.

4. If the Big XII folds, who do we make the check out to?

5. I seriously doubt TCU to the Pac, Cal Berkley was adamant last time that they would vote against any religious school, I don't think they would admit a school with Christian in their name and have any leg to stand on in the future.

6. I remember being told by a trusted source that our move to the Pac was a "done deal" last time. Then he called me up and said "the networks just offered crazy money to stay together" (Paying the remaining schools the same as if they were 12) and the whole thing stopped. This aint over until it's over.

7. Same source says "Sharp is doing everything he can" to stop us.

8. See #1 

Regarding 7, it’s over.  

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1 hour ago, hiphopfroggy said:

A quick dose of post Big12 reality?

 

There is only the SEC, Clemson and Ohio St now. College football is becoming more regionalized rapidly. TV #'s will be great in the south and Ohio, the rest of the country will tune out. College football is the new NASCAR. Fanbase of folks from Mississippi, Bama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Florida, Ohio, Georgia and South Carolina. 

Nobody really cares about tcu anyway.  

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The realignment thread isn't really a realignment thread anymore, so I'll cross post this here:

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

I've been saying the AAC would automatically add TCU since day 1 of this thing. They and Baylor will definitely shop around but an American with TCU and Baylor wouldn't be a bad conference. It would be behind the 4 new "power" conferences but it's best team would almost assuredly make a 12 team playoff.

I don't think D1 football is ready to die quite just yet - if only for another x amount of years - and I think the expanded playoff actually helps this. I see it being floated around that there might be a new top division with 64 teams but that's a little tricky. Just going by recent recruiting rankings on 247, the AAC for 2022 has Cincy at #32 in the country, SMU at #52 and UCF at #60. That isn't including TCU or Baylor. 

For 2021 - Cincy was #44, Memphis was #47, SMU was #51, UCF was #57 and USF was #65. 

I don't really see Wake, Vandy, Kansas, and Rutgers getting to play big boy football while Cincy, UCF and TCU sit from the sidelines and watch. (but of course there could be further realignment)

I think it's more likely we end up with 75-80 teams in a reorganized top flight division of football. 

I'm of course biased here but I'm also not convinced SMU is a top 64 athletics program again yet. However - some of those other schools absolutely are. The back of napkin math gets tricky.

I think this is what happens:

WVU and someone else -> ACC

KU, ISU -> B10

TTU, OSU -> P12

TCU, Baylor -> American 

KSU to one of the latter two. P12 gets to 14 with Tech and okie - AAC gets to 13 football members with TCU and Baylor. Maybe BSU gets picked up somewhere.

Then you have a decent 5 football conferences with 13-16 members each. The American wouldn't be as good as any current P5 as they lack a blue blood (counting Clemson as a blue blood here) but they'd be closer to the Pac in football than the Pac will be to the SEC. 

From there, it would set up very well to slot teams into a 12 team playoff. Best team from those 5 gets a bid - maybe best team from outside those 5 gets a bid but not sure who that would be if BSU and BYU have a down year and if ND finally jumps to the ACC. 

6-7 at large - you'd usually have 2-3 from the B10 and 4ish from the SEC. 

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6 minutes ago, JOSEYWALES66 said:

The interesting to me about Baylor is the debt on the new stadium.   TCU did a bunch of renovations but they basically had that paid for by alumni.    If I remember correctly, Baylor is carrying a lot of debt. 

Sounds like they got a little high and mighty. "Too big for their britches", so to speak.

Edit. This really has to fuck with their recruiting.

Edited by Steel Shank
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What seems most likely to me:

  • West Virginia to ACC - would allow them to revive the Backyard Brawl with Pitt, also close proximity to Virginia and Virginia Tech.  It would not shock me if the ACC were to add Houston, too.
     
  • Kansas and Iowa State to the B1G - Kansas for sure, Iowa State maybe.  Both schools are AAU members, which the B1G really likes.  Kansas is extremely attractive for hoops, and probably no worse at football than Illinois.  (Which is to say, they're terrible.)  Iowa State has a longstanding rivalry with Iowa, and would fit in well regionally with Nebraska and Minnesota as well.
     
  • Texas Tech and Oklahoma State to the Pac - Pac will need to expand to keep up with the Joneses.  These are probably the two best remaining programs in the Big XII, and these schools would fit in reasonably well with Colorado, Utah, and the Arizona schools.  I could see the Pac also entertaining the idea of adding Boise State and maybe BYU (if the Pac decides to get past the whole Mormon thing) to get to 16 teams.  Oklahoma State to the B1G is also a possibility, although that seems like less of a good fit to me.
     
  • Baylor, TCU - probably the American.  These are smaller programs that would probably thrive in that conference, although the loss in conference prestige would be a blow.  When the CFP expands to 12 teams, I could see the American getting at least one bid.
     
  • Kansas State - who knows?  My guess is they might join the Mountain West with the likes of Colorado State, Wyoming, Air Force, etc. unless the Pac gets desperate enough to add them.

 

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The only school in the Big 12 that might be additive somewhere else is Kansas - and that assumes the NCAA dies and their hoops program stops funding the entire NCAA via the NCAA tourney.  They conceivably get a lot of their hoops value back in a revamped tourney structure.  Is that more additive than a good football add?  Probably not.  but there aren't many football additions left to be had.  

The PAC or ACC might add schools but it's essentially a delay of the inevitable in either cases.  Even if they implement unequal revenue sharing, they're just kicking the can down the road until that won't work to keep their bread winners from leaving.  

The Big 12 will probably know within the next few months whether the PAC big brands 1) have a competitive TV deal to stay in place, and if not 2) whether the B1G (via FOX) wants to poach their big brand schools.  If most of the Big 12 sticks together, they end up adding the PAC leftovers.  If the PAC holds steady, the Big 12 in the short run adds from the AAC schools and waits to see what happens with the eventual raid of the PAC/ACC.  

So if you assume the Big Ten creates a 5 team west coast pod and that KU wins a knife fight with CU for the last spot in the Big 20, then you end up with something that looks like this:

West:  Zona, ASU, Utah, CU, TTU, TCU
East:  OSU, KSU, ISU, BU, UH, WVU

That's a fun and balanced league and it's still a power conference technically (voting issues, playoff access, etc.)  The money would be a lot better than G5 money even if it's nowhere close to SEC or B1G money.  

 

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All the hate flowing from the "Tagalong Eight".  So much animosity toward TEXAS for years -- and now they finally realize how important the Longhorns have been financially for their Universities.   smdh

 

"TCU might survive realignment, but college football — as we know it — might not"

By Melissa B. Triebwasser@TheCoachMelissa  Jul 23, 2021 

Quote

At SEC Media Days earlier this week — or a lifetime ago, who can say — SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey opened his time at the podium with a quote from the Bob Dylan song, saying “the times, they are a changing.” It was a callback to his first address as commish six years ago, as he noted how much had changed in such a short period regarding the landscape of college football

Little did we know then just how much MORE change was on the horizon.

It seems all but imminent at this point that Texas and Oklahoma are headed to the SEC; multiple reports (like HERE, HERE, and HERE) as well as the fact that the two flagship programs bailed on Thursday night’s emergency meeting amongst Big 12 ADs. Whether they will wait until the Grant of Rights expires in 2025 or negotiate a deal that lessens the $70+ million penalty for leaving early remains to be seen, but as rumors of ADs seeking out back channels with other conferences leaks fast and furious, it seems the end of the Big 12 is nigh, something that would allow Texas and OU to sneak out quietly in the middle of the night with few penalties.

The Big 12 is effectively over, folks — this isn’t doom and gloom, this is happening.

As TCU fans, our immediate thought goes to what happens next. This tends to fall into three categories:

1)  OH S&!T

2)  TCU is an attractive brand name that will have other suitors

3)  Been there, done that. We’ve navigated conference realignment many times and will be fine.

I am firmly in category one, but y’all know that.

247 Sports insider Jeremy Clark reported last night that TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech have already reached out to the Pac 12 to gauge interest. This makes the most sense for those four teams; those calling for the ACC and Big Ten, I am sorry — it’s not happening, and that’s not just me opining, it’s the feeling of every single person that “knows things” that I’ve spoken with. The Big Ten is engaging with Iowa State and Kansas, two schools that fit their wider profile as AAU/research-heavy schools. If anything, the ACC *might* talk to the Mountaineers, but that train has left the station many a time before without West Virginia on it, so folks in Morgantown are rightfully having flashbacks to the days of the Big East.

Kansas State? I am so sorry.

In talking with folks that know BU/TT/OSU well, well, we are all trying to talk ourselves into the PAC not only wanting us, but it being a good fit. The Horned Frogs have a large following in Southern California especially, and if the Pac 12 is going to expand, the rich fertile recruiting grounds of Texas and the enticing markets of DFW and OKC are appealing ish. Sure, the time zone and long flights would suck for programs like basketball and other one offs, but there are ways to make that tenable to say the least. And listen, the Pac 12 is just slightly less desperate than the Big 12 is about to be, and adding four universities with good ties to good markets (though that matters much less these days) would strengthen them considerably and put them in a much better position to consistently send multiple teams to the 12 team expanded playoff in the future. The real draw is better access to Texas talent — dipping your toe in the state and pulling out blue chip recruits would certainly get programs like USC, Stanford, and Oregon — who already prioritize Texas talent — on board. It also keeps the athletic department budgets somewhat consistent to what they are used to: in 2018-2019, the last “normal” year, the Big 12 paid out $38.8 million dollars to each normal school. The Pac 12? $32.2 million.

The AAC? $7.4 million.

(That’s why the Big 12 isn’t going to end up adding four teams and staying alive: that conference without Oklahoma and Texas is basically a beefed up AAC that would almost certainly lose it’s Power Five autonomy and see it’s revenue stream plummet by literally tens of millions of dollars. That will kill non-revenue sports — like baseball (especially at a private school) — and completely change the landscape of the athletic departments that will go from flush to hanging on for dear life overnight.)

If the path forward becomes one of Super Conferences (check out this thread by Adam Lunt for context on what that would mean), then the 12 team Pac 12 needs four teams and the Big Ten (Iowa State and Kansas) and ACC (West Virginia and ???) would need two each. The SEC reaches the threshold with the addition on Texas/OU.

So, it just kind of makes sense, I guess.

But the bigger picture can’t be ignored either, as ESPN writer David Hale threaded at length on twitter. For years, the NCAA has operated as a shadow operation — or maybe more of a shadow puppet — allowing universities to make their own decisions and operate under an “every man for himself” mantra. We have seen that through COVID and now with the NIL — there isn’t a centralized body keeping things above board on the administrative side, and as Gary Patterson pointed out during Big 12 Media Days last week — there isn’t a player’s union protecting the student-athletes. College Athletics as a business aren’t about college athletics, they’re about brands. The bigger the brand, the bigger the paycheck — and ultimately, that’s what matters. Absolutely no one in administration really cares about regional rivalries or game day atmospheres unless those things impact the bottom line: Alabama would drop the SEC and join in a conference with USC, Ohio State, and Clemson if they thought that was their best path to profitability. That’s why the SEC has become so dominant: the brands of their universities and the near-monopoly these programs have as entertainment in their respective regions.

And they want more.

Texas is the richest damn school in the country. And they want more.  At some point, the system is going to blow up. Because the big schools and the big brands will never stop wanting more. They don’t care about tradition. They don’t care about rivalries. They don’t even care about winning.  

 

 
Edited by LTtxfan
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The other conferences will be making moves soon. This is the way…they will wait until it’s official/no turning back for UT/OU. Best thing to do is expand their numbers and IMO most of our conference brings value. I think OSU, TTU, ISU and Kansas for sure for different reasons. Feel bad for KState unless they are part of a package. They had a strong start 8-5 year before last and then Covid and injuries last year decimated them. Hoping for the best for most all of y’all. Sincerely. 

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Quote

Texas is the richest damn school in the country. And they want more.  At some point, the system is going to blow up. Because the big schools and the big brands will never stop wanting more. They don’t care about tradition. They don’t care about rivalries. They don’t even care about winning.  

Really?we don’t care about tradition? And rivalries? Because we are leaving a league with TCU? This shows how self centered and unaware these tag a long programs are. 
  
we’re about to revive our series with Arkansas and TAMU. 
  
TCU sees us as a rival. We don’t see them as one. 

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7 hours ago, hiphopfroggy said:

A quick dose of post Big12 reality?

 

There is only the SEC, Clemson and Ohio St now. College football is becoming more regionalized rapidly. TV #'s will be great in the south and Ohio, the rest of the country will tune out. College football is the new NASCAR. Fanbase of folks from Mississippi, Bama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Florida, Ohio, Georgia and South Carolina. 

You are probably not wrong. ESPN and company have been working on this project of making college sports regional for awhile.

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52 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Pistols Firing has some interesting stuff. SIAP

https://pistolsfiringblog.com

 

Two articles not already posted that are currently on Pistols Firing

Article #1  "A Super-Conference Poacher’s Guide to the Big 12"

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/a-super-conference-poachers-guide-to-the-big-12/

The Rankings were bad:  1) Okie Lite  2) ISU, 3) Baylor 😂  4) KSU 😂😂😂  5) KU 🏀🏀🏀  6) Tech   7) Tcu  😎😎 Wvu

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Article #2  "What Merging the AAC and Big 12 Might Look Like"

https://pistolsfiringblog.com/what-merging-the-aac-and-big-12-might-look-like/ 

 

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Just saw this too...  SIAP

Pistols Firing    FOOTBALL

"Texas, OU to Announce Intentions of Leaving Big 12 for SEC Within 48 Hours"

The move could happen this weekend.

 July 23    By  Kyle Boone 

Texas and OU leaving the Big 12 and joining the SEC now seems imminent. Announcing their intentions formally could happen in the next 24-48 hours, according to CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd.

247Sports’ Chip Brown also reported on the two schools’ expected departure, saying on Friday that both will join the SEC and that “Texas and OU officials plan to inform the Big 12 on Monday that they won’t renew when the league’s grant of rights expire in 2025, a step that clears the path for the SEC to formally consider adding Texas and OU.”

“It could be as soon as 24-48 hours and as long as two weeks before we have any clarity in terms of timing,” a source told Dodd in reference to when Texas and Oklahoma would expect to formally join the SEC. Both would owe big money to the Big 12 if it were to happen before the grant of rights deal expires.

The grant of rights seems to be the only sticking point that would keep OU and Texas tied to the Big 12 for the short-term, but a source told PFB that there are avenues they could get out of those deals legally. Brown on that front added this:

To leave earlier, Texas and OU would be contractually bound to give up their four remaining years of Big 12 television revenue, which would total nearly $160 million each (based on 2019’s $37.7 million payout per school) – although such situations in the past have been settled in court to allow both sides to move on.

Texas and OU were the founding members of the Big 12 when it was formed in 1994, part of a league that combined the old Big Eight with the Southwest Conference. The two schools account for the most football conference championships since that time.

The Big 12 tried some sort of damage control Thursday in a conference-wide call to try and discuss repairing an apparently broken situation and to discuss contingencies if OU and Texas were to leave for the SEC. Neither OU nor Texas were on the call, however, an ominous sign about the two schools’ commitment to the league.

It’s unclear what happens from here to OSU and the rest of the Big 12 — and it is equally unclear when OU or Texas will move conferences — but there will only be eight remaining conference members in the Big 12 and the future of the league seems to be in peril.

 

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Haven’t checked in here in a few days.

We all still thing the best outcome of this is Baylor getting fucked and going bankrupt right?

I still think OSU/Tech/KU/KSU/ISU probably fine. TCU is maybe fine. Baylor probably fucked. As they should be.

Edited by oSuJeff97
Fuck Baylor
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5 minutes ago, oSuJeff97 said:

Haven’t checked in here in a few days.

We all still thing the best outcome of this is Baylor getting fucked and going bankrupt right?

I still think OSU/Tech/KU/KSU/ISU probably fine. TCU is maybe fine. Baylor probably fucked. As they should be.

I think KSU is in the probably fucked boat.

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18 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Regarding 7, it’s over.  

this.  NIL changed the dynamics.  It wasn't a negotiating ploy like last time.  we never wanted the Pac.  2 hour time diff and travel for olympic sports wasn't worth it.

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3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

I think KSU is in the probably fucked boat.

Yeah probably they aren’t in as good of a position as OSU/TTU/KU/ISU. I’d probably put them in the “maybe fucked” boat. They are still a large public state university with good football success. I think that puts them a notch above Baylor and probably TCU at least.

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I think the Big Ten is done reaching. They should have learned their lesson with Rutgers. Adding OK State doesn't deliver the OKC market. Just as adding Tech doesn't deliver the Dallas market. I think the Big Ten could stand pat. I'm not sure KU Basketball means as much to the Big Ten as we think it does. 

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