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Texas Governor's Race 2022


atomheartbevo

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1 minute ago, Dutchrudder said:

Eh, if he bring support for other Democrats down ballot, it will be worth it. He's not going to have a chance to win the Governor's seat, but maybe he helps flip a few purple districts or get rid of Ken Paxton. Every little bit helps.

Paxton isn't going anywhere.  The Chair of the UT board of regents is out fundraising for him, quite successfully.  Paxton will be re-elected, and UT leadership will help make it so.

Enjoy that lovely tidbit.

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16 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Conventional wisdom is that 3 losses in a row is the end of being a viable candidate.  I wish it was also the same for football coaches.

 

Is it in three in a row for the same office?  Or for 3 in different offices?  I really don't think O'Rourke's presidential primary bid is a stain on his ability to win.  Shit, Joe Biden lost two of those things, maybe more.  Considering the party out of power runs like 15 primary candidates these days, most of those people are going to "lose" but still go on to be viable candidates for senate seats, governorships, et. al.  

Now if somebody were to lose the popular vote for President three times.  That would be something. 

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

2.  I would camp overnight for tickets to a Huffines v. O'Rourke general election debate.  Neither of them gives a shit about me or my issues, but to physically bask in the awkward juxtaposition of calm, charismatic 6'3" O'Rourke at one podium and this moist, feverish troll 5'6" Huffines at the other podium.  I'd get kicked out because I wouldn't be able to stop laughing out loud.  

 

FWIW, Beto was horrible in the 2018 debates. Cruz was far more composed. Don't know if that changed in any Democratic primary events. Debates don't matter though, so entertainment value like this is about all you can gleam from them.

1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

Eh, if he bring support for other Democrats down ballot, it will be worth it. He's not going to have a chance to win the Governor's seat, but maybe he helps flip a few purple districts or get rid of Ken Paxton. Every little bit helps.

This. If nothing else, his fundraising ability and campaign infrastructure raises the floor for Democrats and could potentially divert Republican resources in what has the potential to be a rough election for Democrats. Politics isn't football, there are good losses. 

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6 hours ago, South Austin said:

Color me unhopeful.  The Republican primary might be bloody and entertaining, but whoever emerges will have a groundswell of support from the anti-Biden Texas reds looking to correct the Democratic gains in 2020.  Beto will make it interesting.  But I think there were a lot of Rs voting anti-Trump who will swing back Republican next year.

We need to get out there and make sure Don Huffines goes MAGA 3rd party in the general.

But that's assuming that Don Huffines has the balls to take on the Republican swamp and that's assuming that Don Huffines loves Texas enough to try and protect the border, since Greg Abbott is Joe Biden or something.

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1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

Maybe there's enough suburban white woman out there angered they have to leave the state to fix Susie's little accident. Nah.

Plenty were pretty fucking pissed about last February, and many moms were pissed that Abbott was trying to work against school districts with the COVID stuff this year, because while they love their kids, they don't love babysitting them on Zoom during the daytime.  

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

We need to get out there and make sure Don Huffines goes MAGA 3rd party in the general.

But that's assuming that Don Huffines has the balls to take on the Republican swamp and that's assuming that Don Huffines loves Texas enough to try and protect the border, since Greg Abbott is Joe Biden or something.

This is honestly the only hope that Beto has -- a MAGA 3rd party candidate siphoning away GQP voters from Abbott.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

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Don if you love Texas, you will do anything you can to beat Greg Abbott, including running against him in the general.  You know Democrats are crossing over in the (R) primary to vote against you, so you need to run in the general for MAGA!

He absolutely needs to do this.  Texas needs him to protect our MAGA values, and not be a coward and walk away.  RUN, DON, RUN!

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11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We need to get out there and make sure Don Huffines goes MAGA 3rd party in the general.

But that's assuming that Don Huffines has the balls to take on the Republican swamp and that's assuming that Don Huffines loves Texas enough to try and protect the border, since Greg Abbott is Joe Biden or something.

If Huffines does indeed go third-party, the wheels will come off the Abbott campaign.

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4 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Eh, if he bring support for other Democrats down ballot, it will be worth it. He's not going to have a chance to win the Governor's seat, but maybe he helps flip a few purple districts or get rid of Ken Paxton. Every little bit helps.

Exactly -- that's what worked before and it should again.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

He absolutely needs to do this.  Texas needs him to protect our MAGA values, and not be a coward and walk away.  RUN, DON, RUN!

I've got roughly 4000 "shares" of Huffines to win governor of texas on PredictIt @ $.01. ( a whopping $40). I need to remember to keep tabs on that. I see where it spiked up to $.05 last week, but has since dropped back down to $.02 I'm not a fan of the guy in any way, but in this batshit MAGA environment, I can see him having a spike in popularity before he implodes.  I might as well profit off of it if it happens. God help us if he actually wins, the $4K I'd clear aint gonna pay my moving expenses. 

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Read the letter real quick.  I love that A&M...violations of Corps of Cadets rules are handled by the same people/in the same way that rules for Motor Vehicles and Dining Halls area.  

I wanna meet the A&M Vice President for "Parking Garages, Cafeteria Plans, and the Corps of Cadets."  

All a violation mean is you can't get into campus student leadership.  You can keep your dorm, credit hours, and scholarship.  It's a nothing burger which means Huffines will ride into straight into the fucking Sun.

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8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

So now covid tests are also bad?

Pretty sure people like Huffines don't even want you saying the word "COVID" unless they are talking about their ancestors: "MY ANCESTORS CAME HERE ACROSS THE MISSOURI TRAIL RIDING IN COVID WAGONS WHILE FIGHTING OFF INJUNS AND YANKEES!"

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6 hours ago, RPM said:

The gun stuff is gong to be hard to walk back, but he has a point. Hot Wheels should be easy to unseat with a decent opponent. I'm not sure Beto didn't squander his capitol with the presidential run. He should have laid low after the Cruz defeat.

*capital

 

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7 hours ago, Lobo said:

Well done, CNN.  Manage to work "unseat" three times into the first fucking paragraph.  Headline tomorrow, "O'Rourke raises concerns of Abbott's crippling of Texas democracy and disabling the energy grid infrastructure."  I mean, is there some surly poster working at CNN website desk right now? 

Beto's going to shake the tree and see what falls out.

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Plenty were pretty fucking pissed about last February, and many moms were pissed that Abbott was trying to work against school districts with the COVID stuff this year, because while they love their kids, they don't love babysitting them on Zoom during the daytime.  

Betos entire campaign should be (1) I will fight to make sure the Texas energy companies will not turn the lights off again in this state for profit and last February never occurs again, (2) I will fight to stop school shootings by irresponsible laws that allow mentally ill people, criminals and kids to purchase assault rifles they don’t need and (3) I will fight to make sure our kids can go to school safely without worrying about covid, measles, polio, etc and without having to deal with unnecessary politics like ridiculous mask or vaccine bans for vaccines that most have been around for decades.
 

Whether he can actually do all of that or not is besides the point. Messaging matters. Republican have figured that out long ago.

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7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Beto has already undermined himself in Texas politically.  But he seems hellbent on figuring out exactly how many total piece of shit GOP candidates he can lose to in sequence. But that text message game doh. 

To be fair, what Democrat in Texas is going to stand up, stick their necks out, and run against Abbott?  It's not going to be Matthew, and he may not even consider himself a Democrat.  The Castro brothers?  It's November, was one of them going to wait until January or February?  Same with Wendy Davis, what was she waiting on?

Lina Hidalgo already declined (probably going to wait four more years for things to change even more).

These are the only Dems to have declared:

https://gilbert4gov.com

https://www.12newsnow.com/article/news/local/texas/michael-cooper-announces-run-for-governor-of-texas/502-c7d05f25-5bf8-474d-93c5-7714aae0980b (his website is disconnected from his domain)

Edit: And none of us here have probably heard of either of those two above who have actually declared.

Edit 2: Apparently Steve Adler is in the mix of "maybe, maybe not", but it's mid-November, these people should be out campaigning now.

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I was going to say that Jason Isbell is going to lose some fans over this, but the front page of his website has a "Black Voters Matter" link, so he's already lost those people.

He’s been about as outspoken publicly on politics as someone could be. If they were still hanging around they weren’t paying attention. The second tweet is referencing his Georgia covers album that was a thank you to the people of Georgia for going for Biden. 

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7 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

I think he’s got a helluva lot better chance than he’s getting credit for here. 

He probably does.  Lot of shit went down in Texas over the past 18 months, and the Republicans botched it about as publicly as you can get.  Trump isn't on the ticket (bad for Abbott) and Abbott is getting hammered by both sides for the last 18 months.

Abbott better pray with all of his might that the power grid stays up this winter.  And he better pray that the Trumpers supporting Huffines don't push him into running in the general.  If we get a repeat of 2006 and Perry winning with 39% of the vote, I don't see Abbott trumping in that scenario.

 

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13 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Fuck. I can’t fucking stand Huffines and think he’s a detriment to society, but not voting for Beto.  I think he’s got a helluva lot better chance than he’s getting credit for here. 

It really comes down to "if polls are to be believed." Texas Tribune has consistently shown polls that Texans are actually in favor of gun control, abortion rights, etc., but the actual polls in which people vote seem to show otherwise. That said, Beto is/was one helluva a motivator against Cruz when no one took him seriously at the start.

In my social/professional circles living in Austin, I think he gets 90% of the vote. In my former high school social circles from oil producing, rural West Texas (now majority Hispanic), I think he only gets 20%. Politics today really does seem to be mostly driven by where we live and who we associate with. The wavering battle lines of religion, class, place, race, and profession really do seem to be the determinants.

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2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Texas Tribune has consistently shown polls that Texans are actually in favor of gun control, etc., but the actual polls in which people vote seems to show otherwise

They are.  Their just not in favor of the flavor Beto proposed. 
 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Instead, you’ll vote for Abbott, whose entire identity is….a weak cuck to Huffines. Amazing.

It’s worse than that, bud. 

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3 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

They are.  Their just not in favor of the flavor Beto proposed. 

Probably. How he wriggles out that declaration of "hell, yeah, taking 'em away" in the heat of the moment will be pivotal. But, then again, the whole abortion thing, the covid response thing, the keepin' the electricity thing will also play into it. 

I'm done with prognostications, speculations, and predictions about how others vote. In a sign of how locked in we are, I've already made up my mind on an election that won't happen for almost a year from now.

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2 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Not uncommon, I wouldn’t think. 

Yep. Who are the few on the margins who might swing either way? Who can you actually get out to vote? That's all it is at this point.

Are Hispanic oil field workers in South & West Texas motivated by the gun thing if they're prospering in a high price environment? Are white, suburban soccer moms feeling comfortable about sending their kids to school in a (hopefully) post-pandemic world, or are they more worried about the pr0n in their kid's lie-berries? What about the young singles who are worried about getting knocked up? Do the Samsung and Tesla plants go down in the next winter storm? Does some nutcase poison Lake Ray Hubbard? Does Texas Football turn it around? Does some Black kid get shot in some questionable scenario by Baylor campus cops? Does a wave of Venezuelan political refugees arrive at the Presidio bridge?

Those are the incalculable scenarios which are going to determine it...or not.

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32 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Probably. How he wriggles out that declaration of "hell, yeah, taking 'em away" in the heat of the moment will be pivotal. But, then again, the whole abortion thing, the covid response thing, the keepin' the electricity thing will also play into it. 

I'm done with prognostications, speculations, and predictions about how others vote. In a sign of how locked in we are, I've already made up my mind on an election that won't happen for almost a year from now.

@Lobo actually posted a great hypothetical how Beto could own what he said basically and come out looking pretty good. I forget which thread it was on -- maybe this one.

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I hope he and Dowd go really negative.  There is ground to be made there if they talk more about how Texas is near the bottom of a lot of important metrics, ERCOT and less about guns and voting rights.  While most of Texas may be pro life, even the staunchest R's don't like the idea of citizens getting bounties for turning people in.  It's a fools errand, but I would enjoy seeing them punch those guys in the face.

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