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2022 Rain Thread


South Austin

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On 2/20/2022 at 7:56 AM, UT_OB1 said:

@phdhorn what are the odds that the rain forecasted for SE Tx on Thursday fizzles out?  I got people lined up to get a roof installed and inspected that day. 

I think rain will be very, very light if any, but not a good start to Thursday (< freezing).  After about 10 or so I think other than being really cold and maybe a little wet, things improve.

Of course if you're on a wet roof in 35° temps it might not be the best day.

More details from the other thread:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/22703-2021-2022-texas-winter-weather-thread/&do=findComment&comment=4089679

 

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On 2/22/2022 at 8:35 AM, phdhorn said:

I think rain will be very, very light if any, but not a good start to Thursday (< freezing).  After about 10 or so I think other than being really cold and maybe a little wet, things improve.

Of course if you're on a wet roof in 35° temps it might not be the best day.

More details from the other thread:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/index.php?/topic/22703-2021-2022-texas-winter-weather-thread/&do=findComment&comment=4089679

 

There was no re-roofing work done today. 

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Yeah, I wanted to get up on the roof to fill-in/re-stain two of my eaves on Sunday.  But instead, I'll be drinking and watching "Afterparty" on Appletv+

Shit can wait until next weekend.  

Sucks though because can't take the munchkins to UT baseball in this kinda weather.  

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Sunday's going to be nice, actually. High about 60, sunny.

I'll bet somebody one bottle of beer that we've had our last daytime (i.e. later than say 10 a.m.) freeze for the year. I'd almost be willing to bet a second bottle that we may not freeze again until the fall. But it's been a weird winter so I hold off on that second one. Beer just doesn't grow on trees, you know.

Edited by phdhorn
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40 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Sunday's going to be nice, actually. High about 60, sunny.

I'll bet somebody one bottle of beer that we've had our last daytime (i.e. later than say 10 a.m.) freeze for the year. I'd almost be willing to bet a second bottle that we may not freeze again until the fall. But it's been a weird winter so I hold off on that second one. Beer just doesn't grow on trees, you know.

You said something similar back in October about our last day over 90 degrees…then December and Christmas happened.  

Count me in!

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13 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

You said something similar back in October about our last day over 90 degrees…then December and Christmas happened.  

Count me in!

Oh yeah... well..er.. that was...uh... Yeah, that was done on purpose just to... uh.. to.. umm... gin up some action! I knew all the time it would get warm again... Yeah, that's it!!

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Could be, could not be. I don't place much stock in the seasonal outlooks. The 8-14 day outlooks seem to be pretty good imo.

But if it's still La Nina, I guess that does point to hot/dry.

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So, the rule I’ve generally lived by is if it’s pouring in Australia, specifically Queensland, Texas is gonna drought.  It’s not 100%, but correlates enough for me to notice what’s up.

My friends in a raised house in Brisbane has to evacuate due to flooding the other day….

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Anyone else think that the hill country looks weirdly different this winter? Can't quite put my finger on it, but it looks more "drought" than just dormant for the winter. Just super brown.

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9 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Anyone else think that the hill country looks weirdly different this winter? Can't quite put my finger on it, but it looks more "drought" than just dormant for the winter. Just super brown.

I’m in Llano today for a hearing, and was thinking the same thing driving out here on 29. Very brown and dry.

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Looks like Monday is our next best chance?  Would certainly explain why I've only seen a handful of wildflower patches scattered around town.  This whole situation started to feel way wrong back in October.  What if they had weather/climate stats like sabremetrics in baseball?  

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Yeah, sorry.  I was bailing out water from my yard and got distracted.  

Also the first SXSW I can remember in a long while there wasn't either crazy rains or a big cold spell.  Half dozen people yesterday from outta town, "My god, the weather here is perfect...I think we're gonna try to move here next year."  

Great, 'drought people'...

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Yeah, I know man.  I was trying to tie it into the "True Detectives" quote..."Time is flat circle".  I felt, as an occasional writer, that "Weather is a flat circle" was catchier than "Climate is a flat circle." precisely because of the juxtaposition to duration.  I guess I could go either way.  I understand the difference.  It was supposed to be a callback not a instigation.  As always, I appreciate your expertise and my own ability to fuck up a decently clever joke. 

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23 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, I know man.  I was trying to tie it into the "True Detectives" quote..."Time is flat circle".  I felt, as an occasional writer, that "Weather is a flat circle" was catchier than "Climate is a flat circle." precisely because of the juxtaposition to duration.  I guess I could go either way.  I understand the difference.  It was supposed to be a callback not a instigation.  As always, I appreciate your expertise and my own ability to fuck up a decently clever joke. 

Well, no problem, was sort of posting more as a uniform statement, not to you... unfortunately the "quote" feature often reads like "stick it up your ass" and of course none intended.  Carry on.  Let me check on the clima... er.. weather this week. (Hint:  another chance of rain that is gonna fall flat I think Thursday).

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Poopy chance of rain as a cold front, er wind shift, comes in Thursday.
Pretty good chance of rain Monday - first severe outlook of the season.  Stay tuned if it gets significant.  At this point nothing terrorizing, but it is March and here we go.

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Could use some rain. Wildfires from Big Lake to west of Ft. Worth .

 

Headed to Eastland County. Made contact with Texas A&M Forest Service while en route. I’m told four fires now referred to as the #eastlandcomplex. As of 7pm – one fire roughly 95% contained, others are at zero containment.
 
Edited by clapclapclap
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8 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Trees aren't budding. No wildflowers when typically they're typically bursting this time of year. Looks like a strong chance of rain on Monday. We really, really need it. 

I saw this too. A lot of trees aren’t budding. My weirdo tree in my backyard that usually buds way too early is, but he’s kind of a Kevin. Whatever. Nature knows better than we do. 

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We should get at least a squall line with Monday.  NE of us (say from N Williamson County E and N into NE Texas), first time ever SPC initiated a "30% or greater" ("Enhanced" in common parlance) risk for this early in the season anywhere in Texas.  I think their weather is gonna be fairly bad.  Right now we're in "slight" risk.  "Enhanced" means if you live in a spot, severe weather is almost certain to occur within a 25 mile radius.  "Slight" means within 50 miles.  ("High", the highest category, is almost never issued, and if it is, kiss your house and ass goodbye).

Hopefully that "enhanced" line doesn't creep SW ward.  Otherwise, best chance since... uh... the last time it rained a lot which I think was about a month ago.  Next Mon. into Tues. is gonna be an asscheek sweater, so I'll keep an eye on it.

Edited by phdhorn
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Good news, the severe area has moved even more east, about 1/2 of Travis County not even in it anymore.  That said, severe areas are like impressionistic paintings... foggy and blurry but colorful.  We'll see.  Rain still in the picture, but I doubt much more than a heavy dew.

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2 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Good news, the severe area has moved even more east, about 1/2 of Travis County not even in it anymore.  That said, severe areas are like impressionistic paintings... foggy and blurry but colorful.  We'll see.  Rain still in the picture, but I doubt much more than a heavy dew.

We all know it will rain at your place. 

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13 hours ago, jettrink said:

Where's your 1824 flag or the Republic of Texas flag, carpet bagger?

Nah, I'm saving that for the coming civil war.

Update:  Back in the severe soup today, and an enhanced risk (ugh!) but at least it's not overnight:

SUN2.jpg

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Not looking fun for tomorrow, but they are really going all out for Louisiana and Mississippi on Tuesday. 

 

I noticed it's supposed to rain tomorrow morning before the afternoon shit. Is this going to be the usual case where more rain early keeps severe potential down later or does it not mean shit?

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Jeff Lindner latest -

Severe/Flash Flood Threat
 

Severe weather and flash flood threat continues to increase for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday

 

A powerful storm system will move into TX over the next 24 hours brining multiple hazards to the area. Parameters continue to become increasingly favorable for both severe weather and heavy rainfall by Monday afternoon and evening. There were some concerns yesterday as to the degree of capping that may be in place across the warm sector air mass Monday afternoon and also storm mode. Short range guidance is indicating more robust development across the warm sector Monday afternoon with supercell structures increasingly likely. Given very strong shear profiles of 60-70kts over the region all severe modes will be in play including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. There could be a few strong tornadoes, especially for locations north of I-10.

 

SPC has expanded the enhanced risk (3 out of 5) outline to include more of SE TX. Severe threat will begin in the mid afternoon hours on Monday and continue into the late evening hours.

 

Heavy Rainfall: 

While the main synoptic focus of the storm system will be aimed at NE TX with respect to the heaviest rainfall axis, there is increasing potential for high precipitation supercells to develop and train across SE TX Monday afternoon and evening. Surface trough or front will slow over SE TX Monday night and expect the severe threat to gradually shift toward heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding throughout the night. The setup for repeat cell training is concerning with the greatest threat generally along and north of I-10. Favorable low level inflow off the Gulf combined with strong upper level divergence into either  slow moving line or line of supercells raises the flash flood threat.

 

Will increase rainfall amounts to 3-4 inches across the area, but isolated totals could be as higher as 6-7 inches where sustained training develops. Hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches will be possible leading to rapid onset flash flooding over urban areas. Street flooding will be the primary threat, but under corridors of excessive rainfall, significant rises on creeks and bayous will be possible. WPC has upgraded a portion of the area into a moderate risk for flash flooding north of the I-10 corridor.  

 

Monday afternoon and evening will be active over the area. Have ways to receive warnings.
 

 

92A21848-B6DB-4BFA-B5A6-B63C66A1FAD6.gif

9E307CCE-44D6-42E3-9BAA-DACFE9E7AF94.gif

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One more update.

Tornado and hail probabilities for tomorrow afternoon/evening. A few strong tornadoes (EF2+) is possible in the black hatched area.

Very large hail (golfball+) possible in the black hatched area around the Brazos Valley and I-35 corridor
 

 

D4B73ED6-C73B-46D6-8DFE-0CA89D10D4A1.jpeg

9734B569-E06B-44E2-AA5E-AA793CF7F34E.jpeg

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