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Ukraine War


BehoId, The Underminer!

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lulz at the idea that Zelensky isnt just out strolling around without security when he's at war with Russia, and Russia probably has a 150K+ troops in his country. I guess he should just be strolling down to the corner store to pick up a sixer? 

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As expected, Finland applied for NATO membership yesterday. Sweden joined them today.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-stockholm-sweden-finland-f7328801f699fbb2f28826c0f14d4ef6

We’re calling your bluff, Vlad: We have nukes too and your military sucks. You can’t take Ukraine. You think that opening up another front against Finland would work out well for you?

 

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Damnit, now I’m going to have to go get something from McDonald’s. I guess I could go for a Filet-O-Fish.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61463876

McDonald's to leave Russia for good after 30 years

McDonald's has said it will permanently leave Russia after more than 30 years and has started to sell its restaurants. 

The move comes after it temporarily closed its 850 outlets in March.

The fast food giant said it made the decision because of the "humanitarian crisis" and "unpredictable operating environment" caused by the Ukraine war.

The opening of McDonald's first restaurant in Moscow in 1990 came to symbolise a thaw in Cold War tensions. 

A year later, the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia opened up its economy to companies from the West. More than three decades later, however, it is one of a growing number of corporations pulling out.

"This is a complicated issue that's without precedent and with profound consequences," said McDonald's chief executive Chris Kempczinski in a message to staff and suppliers.

"Some might argue that providing access to food and continuing to employ tens of thousands of ordinary citizens, is surely the right thing to do," he added.

"But it is impossible to ignore the humanitarian crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. And it is impossible to imagine the Golden Arches representing the same hope and promise that led us to enter the Russian market 32 years ago.

McDonald's said it would sell all its sites to a local buyer and would begin the process of "de-arching" the restaurants which involves removing its name, branding and menu. It will retain its trademarks in Russia. 

The chain said its priorities included seeking to ensure its 62,000 employees in Russia continued to be paid until any sale was completed and that they had "future employment with any potential buyer".

McDonald's said it would write off a charge of up to $1.4bn (£1.1bn) to cover the exit from its investment. 

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22 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

How serious is this Turkey objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO? I wasn't aware of beef between them and Turkey.

I believe it’s mostly tied to Kurdish refugees with PKK ties, which grinds the Turkish gears since they dislike them and what not.

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23 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

I believe it’s mostly tied to Kurdish refugees with PKK ties, which grinds the Turkish gears since they dislike them and what not.

Yeah, this is a relatively complicated dispute and the below opinion article contains the best explanation of the backstory I've found so far, in case anyone else is interested. I'm still not clear on whether Sweden has actually supported the PKK per se, or rather the YPG/SDF that the US has backed, which Ankara claims is basically PKK. Either way, this is probably just a shakedown of Uncle Sam and friends by Erdogan.

Spoiler

The sharply increased security concerns of Russia’s neighbours in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine came to a head late last week when Finland and Sweden, following weeks of talks with US and European leaders, signalled that they would soon move to join Nato.

Then on Sunday, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said their applications, which are expected this week, would be fast-tracked by the alliance.

That is assuming Turkey does not stand in the way. “Scandinavian countries are like guesthouses for terrorist organisations,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last Friday in Istanbul. “At this point, it’s impossible for us to be in favour.”

Nato expansion must be unanimous, so with its dissenting vote Ankara, which maintains the bloc’s second-largest army, could essentially cast a veto. This would be a sizeable gift for Moscow, which has vowed to retaliate should Sweden and Finland become members.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly pointed to Nato’s eastward expansion in the late 1990s and early 2000s – adding 10 countries, mainly from the Baltic and Balkans – as the impetus for his Ukraine invasion.

Even as Russia’s military aggression looks set to spur further Nato enlargement, Moscow’s stance remains that the bloc’s encroachment on its borders poses an existential threat and that taking control of Ukraine, or part of it, is needed to ensure its security.

On the weekend, soon after Ukraine’s military forced a Russian retreat from the country’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, Russia halted electricity exports to Finland, with which it shares an almost 1,400-kilometre border, and warned of a “military-technical” response still to come.

Over the past few months, Turkey’s longtime leader has endeavoured to support Kyiv militarily and maintain friendly ties with his Russian counterpart. It seems unlikely Turkey would now take this a step further and stand in direct opposition to all of its fellow Nato members – though it would not be the first time.

Ever the opportunist, Mr Erdogan is possibly looking to leverage his position to gain concessions.

In his remarks he referred to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Turkey's south-east for decades and is labelled a terror group by the US and EU, as well as Turkey.

Sweden is generally supportive of its Kurdish immigrants and its government backs the US-aligned Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which Turkey views as an offshoot of the PKK. In November, Kurdish communities in three Swedish cities held events marking 43 years since the birth of the PKK. The gatherings were organised by the KCK, a Kurdish solidarity group that adheres to the ideology of PKK founder Abdullah Ocalan.

Sweden’s relatively friendly stance toward Kurdish separatists is in part an attempt to make up for a past blunder. After then prime minister Olof Palme was assassinated in 1986, authorities quickly blamed the PKK and proceeded to harass, detain and persecute Kurdish groups within Sweden and beyond. Turkey encouraged these efforts with semi-regular leaks in support of the PKK assassination theory, as in 1998 when a captured PKK leader reportedly blamed Ocalan for the killing. As recently as 2014, Sweden threatened to fine a Kurdish football club that expressed public support for Syrian Kurds.

But over the years Swedish prosecutors found the PKK theory less and less likely, and in mid-2020 they essentially cleared the PKK of involvement in Palme’s killing and pointed to a lone, middle-aged graphic designer as the likely assassin.

Soon after, a high-level Swedish delegation visited the SDF leadership in north-eastern Syria, much to Turkey’s chagrin. Then last year, Swedish Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist held a video call with SDF leader Mazloum Abdi and expressed his country’s long-term support of the group, which played a key role in the defeat of ISIS. In addition, five Swedish parliamentarians are of Kurdish origin.

Sweden is also known to harbour prominent followers of Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara blames for a failed 2016 coup. The Stockholm Centre for Freedom and the Nordic Research Monitoring Network – two well-known, Sweden-based outlets that mostly report on Ankara’s alleged rights abuses – are run by presumed Gulenists.

The follow-up comments of top government adviser Ibrahim Kalin on the weekend suggest Mr Erdogan is indeed doing a bit of arm-twisting in the hopes that Sweden ends its open support of PKK allies. On Monday, Sweden said it would send a delegation to Turkey for Nato-related talks.

Even so, Mr Erdogan might also be looking for a more enticing offer. One possibility is that Ankara is hoping for military concessions from the US, such as re-entry into Washington’s F-35 fighter jet production process or F-16 sales, or a major financial commitment from Europe.

As I detailed last week, Turkey is awash in anti-refugee anger this spring, as millions of Turks struggle to put food on the table and pay their bills.

The €6 billion ($6.25bn) the EU gave Ankara to take care of its 4 million Syrian refugees as part of their 2016 deal has now been spent, and Europe has expressed its willingness to renew. Ankara has begun building housing for 1 million Syrians in Turkish-controlled areas just across the border, but last week Mr Erdogan vowed that he would never forcibly send refugees back to their homeland.

This suggests that, despite the ground the opposition has gained in recent months by vowing to send refugees home, the ruling AKP may stick with its open-door, “champion of suffering Muslims everywhere” policy as election campaigns kick into gear.

Such a stance is likely to go down better with Turkish voters if the EU were to hand Ankara, say, $8bn in refugee funding, in exchange for Turkey accepting the Nato entry of “terrorist-supporting” Sweden and Finland. Unlikely, perhaps, but it’s within the realm of possibility.

The real question, however, might be whether Moscow would let that happen. Driven by self-interest and self-preservation, Turkey has smartly walked a geopolitical tightrope for years. But the moment it is finally forced to pick a side may be nigh.

 

Edited by Hookah Horns
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44 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

I believe it’s mostly tied to Kurdish refugees with PKK ties, which grinds the Turkish gears since they dislike them and what not.

Turkey is also apparently wanting some breaks on weapons systems (don't think they'll be let into the F-35 club) - they are wanting to buy some newish F-16s (40 I think) and get 80 upgrade kits.

 

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Turkey is near and dear to my heart—living there made a huge impression on me as a kid—but it'll probably never be safe for me to return in my lifetime. Erdogan has destroyed modern Turkey imo. Fucking tragic.

Edited by trauma babe
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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Turkey is also apparently wanting some breaks on weapons systems (don't think they'll be let into the F-35 club) - they are wanting to buy some newish F-16s (40 I think) and get 80 upgrade kits.

 

Yep, and the Eu hit them with weapon sales sanctions. Note I said EU, not NATO. The two incoming members, and they are coming, were not part of NATO. All goes back to Turkey hitting North Syria in 2019 I think. Damn, so many dates to remember. 

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1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Russians got a dose of reality on their version of 60 Minutes from a retired colonel. Then they’ve got that host bitch spouting Kremlin propaganda.

 

God damn. They very much had a choice. Nobody wants the Russian people to disappear. True insanity... Mikhail was badass though, thanks for posting.

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39 minutes ago, B00M said:

God damn. They very much had a choice. Nobody wants the Russian people to disappear. True insanity... Mikhail was badass though, thanks for posting.

It’s just so ridiculous because the notion that Russia’s existence is threatened by NATO is pure fantasy. NATO’s existence is based upon defense against Russian aggression and expansionism. And Putin is showing us exactly why NATO exists. No one ever had intentions of invading Russia. Not Ukraine, not NATO, not Finland or Sweden. Nobody. No one is threatening Russia’s existence.

And if not for the death and destruction and war crimes it would be kind of funny because we’re seeing just how weak and incompetent the Russian military is. It’s all pointless. They can’t win. The sooner someone puts a bullet through Putin’s head the better.

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Russians got a dose of reality on their version of 60 Minutes from a retired colonel. Then they’ve got that host bitch spouting Kremlin propaganda.
 

That’s the first guy we need to hand a briefcase of cash to when then shit goes down. He gets it.

She did not like that cold water in the face. Interesting that none of the men on that show interrupted him, it was the woman.
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I will never not stop marvelling at what constitutes a right wing honey pot that had the republicans falling all over themselves.   
Part of the con is plausibility that she's actually attracted to the mark. Even the most delusional GOP creature knows they are not pulling Scarlett Johansen
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The Turks were not just in the F-35 program, they were a major supplier. They got kicked out after doubling down on stupid and buying S-400s from Moscow.  I don’t think they’ll be let back in.  I think they’ll extract some promises of talks on PKK with the Nordics and they’ll try to wring some money from Europe. I think a lot of it is domestic tough talking. 

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2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The Turks were not just in the F-35 program, they were a major supplier. They got kicked out after doubling down on stupid and buying S-400s from Moscow.  I don’t think they’ll be let back in.  I think they’ll extract some promises of talks on PKK with the Nordics and they’ll try to wring some money from Europe. I think a lot of it is domestic tough talking. 

And removal of weapons sanctions. They want to buy other equipment and cannot. Now they see the Russian stuff sucks more than our neighbors to the north. 

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Haven't seen this posted yet. Another shakedown? Anybody heard their reasoning?

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1527034026460061696?s=20&t=113IKSfDQs84fd58VJILqA

Edit: apparently they want changes in election law in Bosnia to favor Bosnian Croats, but apparently this is unlikely to hinder Finland/Sweden joining

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How do you embed a tweet??
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13 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Could be about Bosnia, but Croatian in Bosnia are part of the federation, not pseudo independent like the Serbs. Also saw this from the Finns. 

 

Some context is always lacking in Tweet news. Croatia is a parliamentary republic that more or less functions as such, their president is of a different bent that the parliament and government. It’s the parliament that approves the Finnish and NATO bids.  They will almost certainly do so and the figurehead president can’t really stop it. He’s posturing for some local political points. 

Turkey remains the long pole in the tent. 

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5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

so we got it covered then? cool cool

Not going to be the best wheat crop ever but domestically we will still have a 600ish million bu carryout on a 1.7 billion bushel crop. Canada should do ok this year too. Western Europe is taking a hit with late dryness but it won’t be awful. Biggest issue is logistics/financing when the obvious Russian friendly people don’t need to import wheat currently and are poorly located to launder it on to the world market. 

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On 5/17/2022 at 10:27 AM, Chad Fuck said:


That’s the first guy we need to hand a briefcase of cash to when then shit goes down. He gets it.

She did not like that cold water in the face. Interesting that none of the men on that show interrupted him, it was the woman.

Moscow girls make me sing and shout!

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