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Ukraine War


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5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

7147c28b099a133655079595d1a48cc0c15e1804

Not at that temperature. The outside will be charred black before the meat gets to 165 internal temperature. If it was that quick and easy to cook 200 pounds, some fast food company would have already commercialized it.

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9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

So maybe 6 bodies per day?  (2100 per year)  They've lost that many soldiers in less than two weeks, and perhaps as much as 6X that amount.  Like I said, inefficient. 

Hey now, I've seen Ozark, and it only takes about 2-3 minutes.  

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3 hours ago, Bullneck said:

Practically Soylet Green level of work, there Russia.

If I were a Russian soldier I would find this kind of demoralizing.

 

31 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

7147c28b099a133655079595d1a48cc0c15e1804

So this is how the solve the food supply chain issue.  Putin really is a genius.

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https://www.newsweek.com/liz-cheney-blasts-putin-wing-gop-macgregor-zelensky-remarks-1685269

Liz Cheney Blasts 'Putin Wing of the GOP' After Ret. Col. Macgregor's Zelensky Remarks
 

It may have already been discussed here, but I am glad to see this from the sane people left in the GOP.  Make those that accepted Russian aid in winning US elections own their fucking cozy relationships with Hitler 2.0.

 

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38 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who is fucking this up? us or Poland?

 

It's been discussed in the other thread. Getting the jets from one NATO country to an American base in another NATO country then flying them from NATO air space into the Ukraine is very problematic.

 

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4 minutes ago, F250 said:

It's been discussed in the other thread. Getting the jets from one NATO country to an American base in another NATO country then flying them from NATO air space into the Ukraine is very problematic.

 

I don't go to the Mos Eisley of this board. thanks for the info

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Just now, Dutchrudder said:

Yeah, it might be seen as an act of war, and then Putin will get really mad and start threatening to nuke things!!!

Or pull some shit on NATO dragging the U.S. into the fight which could set off a fuck ton of dominoes that we really don't want happening. Even worse he could just fire off a nuke.

A game of chicken with nukes is a terrible idea.

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the problem is the maintenance and re-armament between combat sorties.  A dozen Ukraine pilots take the rail into Poland to fly 12 jets over back over Russian supply columns in their country...most of the world won't bat an eye.  You establish a fully-functioning combat site for multiple fixed wing groups with expert personnel and equipment, to launch dozens of combat sorties per day...you start to get into NATO compact questions.  We are getting to point, rather quickly, where we have to start thinking about executing a handful of world leaders and then seeing who weeps the hardest...and killing them too.  

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37 minutes ago, F250 said:

Or pull some shit on NATO dragging the U.S. into the fight which could set off a fuck ton of dominoes that we really don't want happening. Even worse he could just fire off a nuke.

A game of chicken with nukes is a terrible idea.

Not really.  Putin holds all the cards.  He knows the West isn't controlled by a single madman.  We know Russia is.  It's a lot easier for him to nuke us than vice versa.  As I stated on the other Ukraine thread, he could do the same thing to a NATO country that he's doing to Ukraine and NATO's response wouldn't be much different. 

 

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3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Not really.  Putin holds all the cards.  He knows the West isn't controlled by a single madman.  We know Russia is.  It's a lot easier for him to nuke us than vice versa.  As I stated on the other Ukraine thread, he could do the same thing to a NATO country that he's doing to Ukraine and NATO's response wouldn't be much different. 

 

And on the bolded point, you're flat-out wrong.  If 1) a NATO country was directly attacked, invoking Article V, and 2) NATO didn't respond militarily, then NATO just functionally decided to dissolve.  And I think we've seen rather clearly over the past two weeks that NATO is NOT interested in dissolving.

I am very confident at this point that if Putin decided to, say, send tank columns into Latvia, NATO air assets would be turning them into burning hulks within an hour.  In fact, that's the best way to go about it -- don't wait till Russian forces move in en masse.  Smoke 'em as the first ones cross the border.  NATO would do that, and it actually would keep the Russian losses and casualties lower.

I think that one unexpected positive development from this war has been a strengthening of NATO.  And NATO would react differently to an attack on a NATO nation than this attack on a non-NATO nation because......NATO and non-NATO is a real difference.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

And on the bolded point, you're flat-out wrong.  If 1) a NATO country was directly attacked, invoking Article V, and 2) NATO didn't respond militarily, then NATO just functionally decided to dissolve.  And I think we've seen rather clearly over the past two weeks that NATO is NOT interested in dissolving.

I am very confident at this point that if Putin decided to, say, send tank columns into Latvia, NATO air assets would be turning them into burning hulks within an hour.  In fact, that's the best way to go about it -- don't wait till Russian forces move in en masse.  Smoke 'em as the first ones cross the border.  NATO would do that, and it actually would keep the Russian losses and casualties lower.

I think that one unexpected positive development from this war has been a strengthening of NATO.  And NATO would react differently to an attack on a NATO nation than this attack on a non-NATO nation because......NATO and non-NATO is a real difference.

And once NATO destroys every conventional way to wage war he has, Putin.....gives up?  "My bad, guys; let's just forget the whole thing."

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38 minutes ago, F250 said:

Or pull some shit on NATO dragging the U.S. into the fight which could set off a fuck ton of dominoes that we really don't want happening. Even worse he could just fire off a nuke.

A game of chicken with nukes is a terrible idea.

But that's where every scenario with Russia ends up, Russia threatening to nuke anyone who interferes.  So we let them take Ukraine, then what next?  It seems Georgia, Moldova and even Khazakhstan are in their sights, possibly the Baltic states too.  Moldova is close to NATO countries, and would likely get "support", but ultimately no boots on the ground or planes in the air on their behalf.  This scenario is just going to keep happening, but next time it will be with Ukraine's resources and 40m people to support Russia. It's only going to get worse, and Russia is only going to get stronger from here out. We could save Ukraine and make them a very friendly ally to the "West" or let them suffer the long drawn out war and eventually be absorbed by Russia, lose their identity, and let Russia strengthen itself through their resources.  

I'm leaning towards US/NATO intervention now. 

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10 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Not really.  Putin holds all the cards.  He knows the West isn't controlled by a single madman.  We know Russia is.  It's a lot easier for him to nuke us than vice versa.  As I stated on the other Ukraine thread, he could do the same thing to a NATO country that he's doing to Ukraine and NATO's response wouldn't be much different. 

 

He doesn't hold all of the cards, and he isn't a madman.  Stop with this bullshit.  It seems like all is going to plan but with delays and the supply of weapons systems to Ukraine is causing a bit of a problem for them but not insurmountable.   They switched to their tactic of just shelling cities and trying to mass murder their way into victory.  Russians leadership doesn't care about casualties like we do, and they don't care about the lives of non-combatants at all it seems.   

They seem to be aware that their entire ground assault fails if Ukraine gets some air-support.  And it is in Moldova's interest to become an airbase for Ukraine to operate out of as they were all but identified as the next target.

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7 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

And once NATO destroys every conventional way to wage war he has, Putin.....gives up?  "My bad, guys; let's just forget the whole thing."

No, NATO doesn't do that.  NATO destroys forces that have crossed into a NATO country.  NATO does NOT strike at Russian forces on Russian territory.  That is strategic restraint.  It avoids providing "total war" as an excuse to Putin.

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8 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

This scenario is just going to keep happening, but next time it will be with Ukraine's resources and 40m people to support Russia. It's only going to get worse, and Russia is only going to get stronger from here out.

WTF?  You think the people of Ukraine - the civilian people fighting with homemade weapons right now -- are going to be a resource to SUPPORT Russia?

AND....you think Russia is getting STRONGER?  WTF?  We are weakening them, perfectly. 

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5 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

But that's where every scenario with Russia ends up, Russia threatening to nuke anyone who interferes.  So we let them take Ukraine, then what next?  It seems Georgia, Moldova and even Khazakhstan are in their sights, possibly the Baltic states too.  Moldova is close to NATO countries, and would likely get "support", but ultimately no boots on the ground or planes in the air on their behalf.  This scenario is just going to keep happening, but next time it will be with Ukraine's resources and 40m people to support Russia. It's only going to get worse, and Russia is only going to get stronger from here out. We could save Ukraine and make them a very friendly ally to the "West" or let them suffer the long drawn out war and eventually be absorbed by Russia, lose their identity, and let Russia strengthen itself through their resources.  

I'm leaning towards US/NATO intervention now. 

There is no justification for intervention by the U.S. on behalf of Non-NATO members outside of a loose interpretation of the Bush doctrine. Which is a fucked up doctrine that put us in a 20 year war.

As mentioned above, attacks on NATO vs Non-NATO members is very different.

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Nivek said:

He doesn't hold all of the cards, and he isn't a madman.  Stop with this bullshit.

There are quite a few generals and other military intelligence types who are openly questioning if Putin has lost it.

I'm not saying that makes it so, but I do think they know more about it than we do.  

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Putin is aware that we have nukes too and they’ve been aimed at Russia for decades. He knows, or at least suspects, that we have nuclear armed stealth submarines he can’t locate in the region that can burn Moscow to a cinder before his first nuke reaches its target. I assume that’s the case. It damn well better be the case.

Putin launching a nuke would be suicide. I’d hope that some Russian general would put a bullet through Putin’s brain before he could order such an attack. But I don’t think he’d ever do it because he’s interested in wealth and power and staying alive and he knows it would be all over if he launched a nuke.

The Russians play chess. They don’t play poker. Americans are better at poker. Don’t fall for Putin’s obvious bluff. He’d only launch a nuke if American tank columns were closing in on Moscow. MAD is still a thing. Show Putin that we’re prepared for nuclear war and he’ll back down just like Khrushchev.

I’m not saying we should send forces into Ukraine. And I think the US and her NATO allies have handled this pretty well so far. But I don’t think we should be overly concerned about Putin using nukes just to save face in a horribly botched war of choice just to conquer a country that doesn’t want him there.

Also, Finland should really join NATO. 

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Just now, TexArcher said:

There are quite a few generals and other military intelligence types who are openly questioning if Putin has lost it.

Putin hasn’t lost it.  He might have miscalculated a little but this gambit in Ukraine is exactly what anyone paying attention should have seen coming.  Years of the West failing to stand up to this guy gave him the permission structure to attempt this. Georgia, Crimea, Donbas, Brexit, 2016 election.  Putin got away with all of it with nominal wrist slaps.  He’s not going to stop either. 

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Not at all likely to happen but would be crazy if it did prediction.

Russia destabilizes as economy crashes. The current Russian Communist party increases in popularity. China works to subvert the current Russian government and support a Communist takeover. New Communist Russian government implements some form of a Leninist New Economic Policy based on the China model. The world ends up with two major Communist powers guided by China.

Like North Korea the Russians could be used to provoke the West on China's behalf.

 

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5 minutes ago, Bravo said:

he does hold held a lot of cards because he knows NATO is was weak and full of appeasement attitude and also a slave to russian gas.

FIF accuracy.  You can go back and look at my posts pre-war -- I was worried about a weak NATO being challenged, probably by a small attack on a Baltic state, and effectively folding.

I no longer have those worries.  Putin has successfully undermined NATO, its resolve, and its cohesion, for decades.....and he undid every advantage he'd built in a single day, and in fact faces a NATO more unified than it's been since the height of the Cold War.  Sweden and Finland are considering joining, even.

The connection to Russian petroleum is a problem, but if it comes to war, it comes to war.  And bad shit will happen, including with energy supplies.  C'est la guerre.

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I consider China communist in name only.  It’s not an egalitarian society or even trying to be. They love their slave labor and blood money like everyone else. 

They still consider themselves Communist but in transition which is what Lenin's NEP policy was predicted on. An interim period of state capitalism until society is prepared for a transition, the Chinese could technically stay in this phase for centuries and still call it a transitional phase.

 

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2 minutes ago, Bravo said:

I don't believe he had any real plans to invade any of the NATO baltic countries. He isn't stupid as you said. Also, MAD will always be a thing so any threat of nukes is Putin just bluffing to scare NATO to back off. He will invade NATO adjacent countries in the region though like Moldova if he ever gets control of his bungled invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine may have stopped any of those plans fortunately. Furthermore, generals are going to start killing/suiciding themselves soon because they obviously were yes men to him which now has made him look like a fool.

The bolded.  This is very important.  Putin inadvertently gave the West an opportunity to weaken Putin, weaken the Russian military (in terms of both attrition and morale), and keep Russia distracted and stuck in an indefinite quagmire.  He bit off more than he could chew.

Had he done this with Georgia?  He probably gets away with it.  Armenia?  He gets away with it for sure.  Moldova?  Maybe/probably gets away with it.  But he went all-in on Ukraine, and it's biting him in the ass.  He just exposed his flank, and we need to hammer it.  And we get to do so without putting US forces at material risk.  That's an incredible opportunity.

Heh heh, I said "hammer his flank."

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13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He just exposed his flank, and we need to hammer it. 

We’re not and it’s infuriating. People talking about off ramps and how we shouldn’t do this or that. I’m like “this dude is finally on life support, now is the time to drop the anvil, do not resuscitate.”  I hope I’m wrong but I suspect the powers that be have some interest in keeping Putin around or prolonging the war in Ukraine in hopes that it’s enough to contain him. Again, I hope I’m wrong. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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2 minutes ago, Bravo said:

 

See how excited those kids are when their iphones/samsungs start breaking down, they can't access shit on the internet, no more Starbucks of McDonalds, and none of that even matters because their family income just got devalued 90%, so getting a non-moldy head of cabbage will be their new family project.

These are kids of a the prosperous technology age.  Think about how bitchy your kids get when the wifi goes out for an hour.  These kids are going to face a lot fucking worse, with no benefit or upside.

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We’re not and it’s infuriating. People talking about off ramps and how we shouldn’t do this or that. I’m like “this dude is finally on life support, now is the time to drop the anvil, do not resuscitate.”  I hope I’m wrong but the powers that be must have some interest in keeping Putin around or prolonging the war in Ukraine in hopes that it’s enough to contain him. 

If you think that supporting a bona fide military response and resistance that's destroying materiel and Russian troops left and right, and sanctioning Russia to the point where Ruble notes are toilet paper, isn't "hammering his flank," you ain't paying attention.

And, yes, an off ramp is smart, and important.  Because there's only two positive outcomes here: 1) Putin dies (killed from within....which is the best outcome, of course), or 2) Putin remains alive, and finds a way to de-escalate that saves some face.  That's it.  Those are your choices.  Unless you want the third one: 3) Putin alive, total World War.  I think that one is very, very, very bad, and should be avoided at almost all costs.

As someone who negotiates disputes -- often very heated and emotional -- between two parties who often still have to occupy the same space/deal with each other after the current dispute ends, providing the other side some sort of face-saving off-ramp is essential.  Failing to do so would be breathtakingly stupid.

There is no fairy-tale ending here.  So stop pretending like one exists.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

And on the bolded point, you're flat-out wrong.  If 1) a NATO country was directly attacked, invoking Article V, and 2) NATO didn't respond militarily, then NATO just functionally decided to dissolve.  And I think we've seen rather clearly over the past two weeks that NATO is NOT interested in dissolving.

I am very confident at this point that if Putin decided to, say, send tank columns into Latvia, NATO air assets would be turning them into burning hulks within an hour.  In fact, that's the best way to go about it -- don't wait till Russian forces move in en masse.  Smoke 'em as the first ones cross the border.  NATO would do that, and it actually would keep the Russian losses and casualties lower.

I think that one unexpected positive development from this war has been a strengthening of NATO.  And NATO would react differently to an attack on a NATO nation than this attack on a non-NATO nation because......NATO and non-NATO is a real difference.

and thats it. the one chance Putin had to invade NATO and kill it is now gone. 

this is the advantage of dealing with an ideologue of last century. He will make predictable moves because of who he is, not from any sound strategy and/or forward thinking genius that people like to paint of the guy. he is a small man with an outdated worldview who is good at strong-arming his political opponents and laying wreckage to his own assets. just ensure he has an offramp to off himself and don't escalate anything here.  everything to date has been played masterfully. 

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If you think that supporting a bona fide military response and resistance that's destroying materiel and Russian troops left and right, and sanctioning Russia to the point where Ruble notes are toilet paper, isn't "hammering his flank," you ain't paying attention.

And, yes, an off ramp is smart, and important.  Because there's only two positive outcomes here: 1) Putin dies (killed from within....which is the best outcome, of course), or 2) Putin remains alive, and finds a way to de-escalate that saves some face.  That's it.  Those are your choices.  Unless you want the third one: 3) Putin alive, total World War.  I think that one is very, very, very bad, and should be avoided at almost all costs

I’m only advocating for whatever it takes to humiliate the Russian army out of Ukraine as fast as possible without overt U.S. military intervention.  I hope we’re doing as much as possible behind the scenes to make it happen but I have my doubts based on how previous administration have approached this guy.  Putin isn’t going to nuke us for the same reason North Korea isn’t. MAD actually works.  I don’t believe he’s looking to take on NATO right now, because it would be suicidal with the military he has BUT he will keep pushing the envelope until NATO responds, he’s betting they won’t and so far he’s been right.

Letting Putin hang around in Ukraine to bomb maternity hospitals and nuclear facilities ain’t a good strategy either. 

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m only advocating for whatever it takes to humiliate the Russian army out of Ukraine as fast as possible without overt U.S. military intervention.  I hope we’re doing as much as possible behind the scenes to make it happen but I have my doubts based on how previous administration have approached this guy.  Putin isn’t going to nuke us for the same reason North Korea isn’t. MAD actually works.  I don’t believe he’s looking to take on NATO right now, because it would be suicidal with the military he has BUT he will keep pushing the envelope until NATO responds, he’s betting they won’t and so far he’s been right.

Letting Putin hang around in Ukraine to bomb maternity hospitals and nuclear facilities ain’t a good strategy either. 

First bolded text: without actually using NATO forces in direct combat with Russia, what else would you have us do?  Ukraine has gotten literally TENS OF THOUSANDS of anti-tank and anti-air weapons.  They are among the best supplied militaries in the world right now.

Second bolded text: it's not a good strategy....it's a GREAT strategy.  Hear my machiavellian ass out here: it's horrific.  It's awful.  It is inhuman.  And with every pregnant mother Putin kills, he forever loses even more of any scintilla of legitimacy that remains.  He will forever be the Butcher of Mariupol.  He will be irrevocably de-legitimized as a world leader.  The more Putin attacks civilians, the more he loses.

War is a hideous fucking business.  Play to win.  Which is what we are doing.  

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1 hour ago, Nivek said:

He doesn't hold all of the cards, and he isn't a madman.  Stop with this bullshit.  It seems like all is going to plan but with delays and the supply of weapons systems to Ukraine is causing a bit of a problem for them but not insurmountable.   They switched to their tactic of just shelling cities and trying to mass murder their way into victory.  Russians leadership doesn't care about casualties like we do, and they don't care about the lives of non-combatants at all it seems.   

They seem to be aware that their entire ground assault fails if Ukraine gets some air-support.  And it is in Moldova's interest to become an airbase for Ukraine to operate out of as they were all but identified as the next target.

Russia Should Worry: The US Military Has Activated Its Strategic Materiel Stockpile

Quote

Russia keeps creating more problems, and Washington keeps responding: The Russian invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves throughout the world. Although the U.S. adroitly and aggressively used declassified intelligence to warn Ukraine and the world, the scale and brutality of the Russian attack are pushing the Pentagon and NATO to unprecedented measures.

A few days after the Russian invasion, NATO activated the NATO Response Force for the first time in its history. Now, the U.S. military has activated its strategic materiel stockpiles also for the first time ever.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/russia-should-worry-the-us-military-has-activated-its-strategic-materiel-stockpile/

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

No, NATO doesn't do that.  NATO destroys forces that have crossed into a NATO country.  NATO does NOT strike at Russian forces on Russian territory.  That is strategic restraint.  It avoids providing "total war" as an excuse to Putin.

And it's entirely predictable he will stage something to make it appear the motherland is under attack by NATO.  He already tried that at least once in the past 10 days.

51 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Putin is aware that we have nukes too and they’ve been aimed at Russia for decades. He knows, or at least suspects, that we have nuclear armed stealth submarines he can’t locate in the region that can burn Moscow to a cinder before his first nuke reaches its target. I assume that’s the case. It damn well better be the case.

Putin launching a nuke would be suicide. I’d hope that some Russian general would put a bullet through Putin’s brain before he could order such an attack. But I don’t think he’d ever do it because he’s interested in wealth and power and staying alive and he knows it would be all over if he launched a nuke.

The Russians play chess. They don’t play poker. Americans are better at poker. Don’t fall for Putin’s obvious bluff. He’d only launch a nuke if American tank columns were closing in on Moscow. MAD is still a thing. Show Putin that we’re prepared for nuclear war and he’ll back down just like Khrushchev.

I’m not saying we should send forces into Ukraine. And I think the US and her NATO allies have handled this pretty well so far. But I don’t think we should be overly concerned about Putin using nukes just to save face in a horribly botched war of choice just to conquer a country that doesn’t want him there.

Also, Finland should really join NATO. 

A big part of me wants to call his bluff now.  Especially after seeing the condition of his army and armaments.  I can't help but think how many Russian nukes will detonate in their silos and never get into the skies.   I get that it's a risk, but the longer this goes on and the more losses he takes, the more fragile his ego will be.   No off ramp and he'll just take out the whole world, then no one will be left behind to laugh at him.   So we wait until he kills 25,000 Ukrainians?  Like Brisket said, he knows we are much more capable of ruining him than vice versa.  Give him an out and call his bluff.

27 minutes ago, Bravo said:

 

Just need some tiki torches.   Why do they all look like extras in The Handmaiden's Tale?

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1 minute ago, pyrohornIII said:

I can't help but think how many Russian nukes will detonate in their silos and never get into the skies.   I get that it's a risk, but the longer this goes on and the more losses he takes, the more fragile his ego will be. 

Jesus fucking Christ, are you insane?  Each Russian missile sub can put something like 70 MIRVs on target.  Russia has 11 missile subs.  Even if only half are operational, and even if their missiles are HORRIBLE, and only 20% work.....that's 70 functioning nukes (14 per boat, X 5 subs).  You're willing to let SEVENTY fucking targets get nuked?  And we're not even counting ICBMs, at least SOME of which would work.  For fuck's sake, that's total global thermonuclear war.  Pretty goddamned cavalier when you're talking about a scale of destruction that will kill literally hundreds of millions of people when all strikes are said and done.

Nukes work as a deterrent because they're fucking nukes, man.  When your opponent has that option, it HAS to be considered in gaming any scenarios.  I'm sorry, but I'm not willing to lose 20 American cities over this.  And anyone who is willing to place that bet is fucking insane.

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49 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See how excited those kids are when their iphones/samsungs start breaking down, they can't access shit on the internet, no more Starbucks of McDonalds, and none of that even matters because their family income just got devalued 90%, so getting a non-moldy head of cabbage will be their new family project.

These are kids of a the prosperous technology age.  Think about how bitchy your kids get when the wifi goes out for an hour.  These kids are going to face a lot fucking worse, with no benefit or upside.

They're not excited right now.  That was the lamest political rally I've ever seen....and there were only about 50 of them.  Completely, and poorly, staged. 

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3 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

They're not excited right now.  That was the lamest political rally I've ever seen....and there were only about 50 of them.  Completely, and poorly, staged. 

Well......maybe not the LAMEST political rally you've ever seen......

 

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52 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

See how excited those kids are when their iphones/samsungs start breaking down, they can't access shit on the internet, no more Starbucks of McDonalds, and none of that even matters because their family income just got devalued 90%, so getting a non-moldy head of cabbage will be their new family project.

These are kids of a the prosperous technology age.  Think about how bitchy your kids get when the wifi goes out for an hour.  These kids are going to face a lot fucking worse, with no benefit or upside.

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