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Global Spring?


Immaculate Vibes

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2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Why is that?

Funds getting run the fuck over to the downside, and not wanting to margin, + rain in Iowa-Illinois. We were down 2 million on soybean acres on the report and we puke 2 bucks is something that wouldn't usually happen. Old crop is still inverted with strong basis for the most part, and generally speaking we either bounce or the inversion has to die once the fund rout is over. 

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1 hour ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

 

There’s about 15-20 accounts/bots all tweeting the same wording, in all caps, and all referencing Reuters, but I went back 8 hours on Reuters accounts and didn’t see shit.  These were the only relevant tweets.  I’m not doubting this could happen but it’s strange that it’s not showing up on the Reuters Twitter or website.

 

 

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Their rates will be down for a few days until they get the steam to bring units back up. Not a huge issue.

Yeah….that was also about as daring a prediction as “someone is going to get a flat tire on I-35 today!” Refineries have minor breakdowns literally all the time. Running hot, running medium, running however.
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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Yeah….that was also about as daring a prediction as “someone is going to get a flat tire on I-35 today!” Refineries have minor breakdowns literally all the time. Running hot, running medium, running however.

Yep. I work at a refinery in operations. Deferring maintenance and extending the life of parts is standard practice to cut costs. The refinery I'm at was making half it's full rate of gasoline for 2+ months early in the summer due to dumb, avoidable shit. 

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17 minutes ago, Parliament said:

If it's that bad in July, what's it gonna be like in January?  Are they gonna be able to spin up a bunch more energy by then?

Of course, things are often significantly changing directions by the time CNBC gets around to talking about it.

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38 minutes ago, Parliament said:

If it's that bad in July, what's it gonna be like in January?  Are they gonna be able to spin up a bunch more energy by then?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-07/dutch-ask-germany-to-keep-nuclear-plants-open-to-ease-gas-crisis

Add to it that they aren't doing anything to keep their existing nuclear plants running past the end of this year. Dumbasses.

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2 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Germany still gets 12% of its electrical energy from nucular power plants, and decommissioning them by the end of the year doesn't make sense.

I never understood the hate for nuclear power plants. Yeah every few decades a fire starts and the animals in the area grow 4 eyeballs and an extra leg. But it also produces a lot of electricity without generating greenhouse gasses. The waste product is plutonium which can be used for nuclear weapons, and depleted uranium for the A10. The rest just be dumped into old indian burial grounds. 

I jest, but in this era of climate change spurred by greenhouse gases, nuclear plants make a lot of sense, but apparently not according to Europeans where only 3 countries still get some energy from nuclear plants.

 

It's mainly the Germans that are scared of them. The French and Swedes heavily use nuclear. Sourcing nuclear materials is going to be an issue with the Russia/Ukraine shit.

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5 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

It's mainly the Germans that are scared of them. The French and Swedes heavily use nuclear. Sourcing nuclear materials is going to be an issue with the Russia/Ukraine shit.

Yes and no.

About 96% of the global uranium reserves are found in these ten countries: Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Namibia, Uzbekistan, the United States, Niger, and Russia.[59] Out of those the main producers are Kazakhstan (39% of world production), Canada (22%) and Australia (10%) are the major producers.

I'm not an expert in central Asian politics and diplomacy, but it doesn't look like Kazakhstan is particularly cozy with the Russians. Now if the Russians also invade Kazakhstan, then yeah, nuclear fissile material could be harder to come by.

Gotta get the Europeans some of that yellow cake!

Chappelle Show Yellow Cake GIFs | Tenor

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24 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Yes and no.

About 96% of the global uranium reserves are found in these ten countries: Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Namibia, Uzbekistan, the United States, Niger, and Russia.[59] Out of those the main producers are Kazakhstan (39% of world production), Canada (22%) and Australia (10%) are the major producers.

I'm not an expert in central Asian politics and diplomacy, but it doesn't look like Kazakhstan is particularly cozy with the Russians. Now if the Russians also invade Kazakhstan, then yeah, nuclear fissile material could be harder to come by.

Gotta get the Europeans some of that yellow cake!

Chappelle Show Yellow Cake GIFs | Tenor

I'm just saying what guys like Peter Zeihan are saying. They have a better understanding of the supply chains and processes than me.

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While Sri Lanka has been the clear front runner for shit going down, given that they were running out of fuel and therefore electricity, it’ll be interesting to see what other countries follow suit.  I think Syria is in the mix, because there’s going to be even more desperate people there thanks to Russia’s UN veto.  Probably another African country or three, plus a South American country or two.  And food will probably help drive it.

 

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Nothing will cure Sri Lanka’s woes until they get hard currency, and they don’t have much to offer in terms of exports.

I believe they relied on tourism for their hard currency but that dried up with Covid. I can’t imagine tourists wanting to go there especially now with civil unrest.

Don’t know how they can break out of this spiral without massive loans. 

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21 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Don’t know how they can break out of this spiral without massive loans. 

China seems the natural choice, but I’m not sure how they feel about the Chinese right now, and China may very well support a more hardline leader.

Ironically they were working out a deal with Russia for fuel, but no idea where that’s going in light of recent events with the Sri Lankan leadership.

Things feel kind of weird, almost like this is the calm before the storm. As if there is anything calm about this.

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

While Sri Lanka has been the clear front runner for shit going down, given that they were running out of fuel and therefore electricity, it’ll be interesting to see what other countries follow suit.  I think Syria is in the mix, because there’s going to be even more desperate people there thanks to Russia’s UN veto.  Probably another African country or three, plus a South American country or two.  And food will probably help drive it.

 

Lots of places are probable. From Ecuador to Mali to Somalia. So many places are fragile right now. 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

China seems the natural choice, but I’m not sure how they feel about the Chinese right now, and China may very well support a more hardline leader.

Ironically they were working out a deal with Russia for fuel, but no idea where that’s going in light of recent events with the Sri Lankan leadership.

Things feel kind of weird, almost like this is the calm before the storm. As if there is anything calm about this.

After what the Chinese did on the port project there, not sure if their cash would be welcome. 

 

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Real talk though - one of my buddies from work is from Sri Lanka and grew up there during the civil war. Took shrapnel from a bomb one day playing tennis as a kid. He said in his view the root of their economic woes is a terrible loan they got from the chinese government to build the airport for nobody. Now, the loan payments are crippling the country and contributing to the overall strife and scarcity. 

It was really a sobering moment a few weeks ago when he was explaining all of this as we walked down the Las Vegas strip together, with full bellies and a little drunk. The insane differential in wealth is what enabled the corruption that's destroying that nation. Everyone can see it happening but nobody can stop it for some reason. 

I hope those people are able to liberate themselves from being sold out for a pointless vanity project. At what point does a nation's contract become void, and their obligations cease? They won't survive without some international support, that's for damn sure

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5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Real talk though - one of my buddies from work is from Sri Lanka and grew up there during the civil war. Took shrapnel from a bomb one day playing tennis as a kid. He said in his view the root of their economic woes is a terrible loan they got from the chinese government to build the airport for nobody. Now, the loan payments are crippling the country and contributing to the overall strife and scarcity. 

It was really a sobering moment a few weeks ago when he was explaining all of this as we walked down the Las Vegas strip together, with full bellies and a little drunk. The insane differential in wealth is what enabled the corruption that's destroying that nation. Everyone can see it happening but nobody can stop it for some reason. 

I hope those people are able to liberate themselves from being sold out for a pointless vanity project. At what point does a nation's contract become void, and their obligations cease? They won't survive without some international support, that's for damn sure

I am totally shocked by this revelation.  Certainly there are no other countries with the same problem.

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