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Global Spring?


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We may be looking to add Brazil soon with Bolsonaro polling far behind Lula.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/19/bolsonaro-attack-on-brazil-electoral-system-sparks-outrage

Fuck that bitch.

In Brazilian citizens, regardless of where they reside, are required by law to vote. The fine is rather small for not voting. My wife has not missed an election since living in the US. You can count that vote for anyone but Bolsonaro.
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On 7/17/2022 at 1:44 PM, Parliament said:

Has the Earth reached its limit of its human "carrying capacity?"  Serious question.

Yep. COVID gave it the ole college try to thin the herd, but it's gonna take something with a little more bite to really make a difference. 

WW3 is next up IMO with just enough nukes to kill off 1/10 of the population at first then ruin the environment for the remaining 1/2 of us. Infrastructure completely collapses and we are living in Medieval style once all the gas and ammo is used up. 

If that scenario doesn't happen then we always have global warming coming out of the bull pen to pitch the closer.

 

tl/dr We all gonna die.

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So nukes kill off 10 percent of global population and then the environment is ruined for half of the remaining?

How is the environment not ruined for 45 percent of the original pre nuke total but ruined for 45 percent of it? Is that other 45 percent dead? So nuke then environment kills 55 percent of pre nuke population?

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3 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Yep. COVID gave it the ole college try to thin the herd, but it's gonna take something with a little more bite to really make a difference. 

WW3 is next up IMO with just enough nukes to kill off 1/10 of the population at first then ruin the environment for the remaining 1/2 of us. Infrastructure completely collapses and we are living in Medieval style once all the gas and ammo is used up. 

If that scenario doesn't happen then we always have global warming coming out of the bull pen to pitch the closer.

 

tl/dr We all gonna die.

Math notwithstanding, I really do think this is correct.  We are past the tipping point and we are going to see the end.  I didn't think it would be within our lifetimes (I just turned 40), but I'm revising my stance.

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Bill Burr Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

The good news is that quite a few nations are going to (or already) have declining populations, including China and Russia. Even India is going to top out at 1.6 billion, but that's still going to take another 30 years before they hit that and start to decline, as they have a lot of younger women who will be hitting child-bearing age in the meantime.

Brazil won't peak until the 2040s.  Pakistan and Indonesia probably won't peak until well after 2050.

Celebrity Big Brother Bbceleb GIF by Big Brother

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-62260678

Quote

Security forces in Sri Lanka have raided the main anti-government protest camp in the capital Colombo and have begun pulling down tents. Hundreds of troops and police commandos moved on the protesters outside the presidential offices, hours before they were due to leave the area.

A BBC video journalist was beaten by the army and one soldier snatched his phone and deleted videos.

Quote

It comes after Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn in as president. Sri Lanka's ex-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country last week.

Mr Wickremesinghe - the former prime minister - is seen as deeply unpopular with the public, and has vowed tough action against demonstrators. But some protesters have said they will give him a chance.

 

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This thread is filled with Malthusians. Shame on you. You’ve been wrong for centuries. 


 

For as much as I post on this thread I’m actually quite optimistic about human civilization.  Our technology will figure out a lot of the things people here worry about. There will have to be some kind of financial reset soon because the current math is unsustainable. There will almost certainly be conflict over that unfortunately but it’s how the deck is reset. 

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15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It comes after Ranil Wickremesinghe was sworn in as president. Sri Lanka's ex-president Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled the country last week.

Mr Wickremesinghe - the former prime minister - is seen as deeply unpopular with the public, and has vowed tough action against demonstrators. But some protesters have said they will give him a chance.

Wow I can’t believe this guy Is deeply unpopular with the public but still seized power. What’s his background?

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/authors/ranil-wickremesinghe

oh wait. What a fucking shocker. 

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1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

So nukes kill off 10 percent of global population and then the environment is ruined for half of the remaining?

How is the environment not ruined for 45 percent of the original pre nuke total but ruined for 45 percent of it? Is that other 45 percent dead? So nuke then environment kills 55 percent of pre nuke population?

Yes.

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7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

This thread is filled with Malthusians. Shame on you. You’ve been wrong for centuries. 


 

For as much as I post on this thread I’m actually quite optimistic about human civilization.  Our technology will figure out a lot of the things people here worry about. There will have to be some kind of financial reset soon because the current math is unsustainable. There will almost certainly be conflict over that unfortunately but it’s how the deck is reset. 

Science needing to fix what religion and ignorance has fucked up?

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In your book, you argue that the world is moving backward in terms of human development.

There was a huge progress in development across 100 countries in the 50 years after 1960. People were living longer. They were better fed. Children were less likely to die in infancy and more likely to go to school.

But over the last ten years, things have gone into reverse. We're in a bleaker, more foreboding and more worrying decade than in the previous four or five decades. For example, in 2015, there were something like 600 million people on the verge of starvation. Now that number is 850 million.

Why is this reversal happening?

There's been an upsurge of conflict, especially in parts of Africa and the Middle East. That's partly a reflection of geopolitics. But it's also the reflection of resource pressures. Climate change leads to more competition over resources, particularly land and water, and that can create grievances which can spill over into conflict.

On top of that, we have the pandemic, which has dragged down many poorer countries. Rich countries were able to protect their own economies, but poor countries weren't able to do so — so the number of extremely poor people grew.

What needs to change?

The U.N., the World Bank, donor organizations and donor countries provided a lot of help to those 100 countries [that have made progress since 1960]. But they haven't provided as much effective help to the 30 or 40 countries that are left behind and going backward, such as Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia. So we need to focus much more on those vulnerable countries by giving them more money and higher priority in financing decisions — and hiring more staff who are used to working in very poor countries.

 

Former head of UN Humanitarian Aid

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/07/21/1112439154/former-u-n-relief-chief-shares-his-secret-for-coping-with-crises-a-sunny-gene

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1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

I think in hindsight this will look very foolish given the geopolitical/food security landscape. 
 

I don’t see a timeline given but theyre pushing for 30% reduction. 

At a certain point, we need to be a lot more efficient with fertilizers, because heavily nitrated water sources isn’t good for humans or livestock. 

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1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

At a certain point, we need to be a lot more efficient with fertilizers, because heavily nitrated water sources isn’t good for humans or livestock. 

Agree overall. There is an issue with timing here. 
 

17 minutes ago, DoobieWah said:

Starvation is not very good for humans or livestock either. 

Don’t worry. You’ll just eat the bugs. 
 

Hold on, I’ve just gotten word we’re skipping over the bugs. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

for some lighter News, a journalist just leaned about Guam and thinks it’s a flashpoint in the Pacific.

What?  I've been to Guam 4-5 times by submarine and 5 times by plane.  First time I ever time travelled was flying back from Guam.  I left at 11 AM October 15th and landed in Seattle at 9 AM October 15th.  It's changed a bit now but we used to call it the wild wild west of America.  There are no rules there.  And the locals love America unlike the Hawaiians.

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Yep. COVID gave it the ole college try to thin the herd, but it's gonna take something with a little more bite to really make a difference. 
WW3 is next up IMO with just enough nukes to kill off 1/10 of the population at first then ruin the environment for the remaining 1/2 of us. Infrastructure completely collapses and we are living in Medieval style once all the gas and ammo is used up. 
If that scenario doesn't happen then we always have global warming coming out of the bull pen to pitch the closer.
 
tl/dr We all gonna die.

Math notwithstanding, I really do think this is correct.  We are past the tipping point and we are going to see the end.  I didn't think it would be within our lifetimes (I just turned 40), but I'm revising my stance.


Earth has not reached its carrying capacity for humans. The idea that it has is so laughable as to be not even worth engaging. The amount of food, water, and energy waste/inefficiency in the world is enormous.

Can the Earth sustain billions living at the standards we in the west and other upper income countries currently enjoy? Different question.
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