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Global Spring?


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15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russian bots have been out in full force trying to scare casual followers of the conflict and energy situation.  The phrase they are trying to spread is being pumped out of a lot of Twitter accounts.  Makes it easy to report them for being bots.

 

No need to tell us. We've got a 23 page thread here that is just that. 

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3 hours ago, Foosters said:

No need to tell us. We've got a 23 page thread here that is just that. 

The best case scenario today is a substantial deindustrialization of Europe along with $1T+ worth of bailouts against the backdrop of increased inflation. Worth following closely imo. If it makes you feel scared or indifferent is up to you. 

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6 hours ago, dimyh said:

Battle of the Stan's just kicked off. I don't know their backstory but looks like we have a new conflict to fire up in the old Soviet backyard.

This and the attack on Armenia wouldn’t have happened a year ago, at least not on this scale.   Now that Russia has proven to be so weak, I wonder who else is going to kick something off.  Some grievances, unfair or not, are going to be settled.

Frank Costanza Seinfeld GIF by MOODMAN

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On 9/23/2022 at 8:26 AM, Humble Beast said:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59768195

From December, 2021:

Quote

The Belgian government has reached a deal to close seven ageing nuclear reactors by 2025.

The reactors, housed at two plants in Doel and Tihange, have long been controversial. They have been shut down repeatedly for safety checks and have sparked fear in neighbouring countries.

A compromise was reached after years of debate and overnight talks by government ministers.

The plan in principle was confirmed at a press conference on Thursday.

 

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9 minutes ago, sidis said:

hopefully belusconi's puppets bring back the bunga bunga parties at the expense of the italian people.  but this time, i want an invite.

c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800.jpg

 

just trying to bring something enjoyable to this bizarre little doom scrolling porn thread.

I mean, is a new Italian gov't even doom porn?  It's Italy....there'll be a new gov't in 6 months anyway.

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean, is a new Italian gov't even doom porn?  It's Italy....there'll be a new gov't in 6 months anyway.

And isn't always better to have them be on the other side/team when the wars start so that when they switch they end up on our side?

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7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

That gap between LNG supply and demand for next 5 years is pretty shocking. Have to think fertilizer/food shortages will be persistent problem during that period. Sad. 

If only the West would listen to the voice of reason, Vladimir Putin, we could avoid so much of this.

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5 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Yes. He remains a master strategist.

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

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37 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

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11 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

They are real.  And the underlying facts are true.  The Vlad-fellating is the unique feature of HB.

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1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

The apparent attack had no immediate effect on European energy supplies; Nord Stream 2 has never gone into service, and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down since August.

So the impact of this to actual supply is zero.   The only thing this affects is if Putin is ever deposed/killed, Russia pulled out of Pre-2014 Ukraine, Russia returned all of the kidnapped Ukrainians, and Russia started paying reparations.....THEN we could open up the supply again.  

So yeah, big immediate impact.

AND we all know it was Russia/Putin who did it because no one else benefits and no one else is this stupid and obvious.   So Putin remains a master strategist!

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More than the Vlad fellating, its HB's conclusions based off stuff like that. Oh, gas prices are going to be high for a few years, Now We'Re aLL FucKeD!! Or, Europe was able to pivot away from its decades long reliance on Russian gas in less than a year, with minimal short term pain to completely decouple from a totally fucked country run by a genocidal maniac.

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2 hours ago, Foosters said:

Yes. He remains a master strategist.

 

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  The whole world got outmaneuvered by the brilliant Vlad Putin.  If only we'd listened to Humble Beast, and the world had bowed to Putin and given him everything he's ever wanted, we could have avoided all of this mess.  Now, Putin WINS!

 

It was smart of Putin to gain a large share of European gas market. He was always going to use it like this. 

He’s botched pretty much everything since and now he’s going to try to take us down with him. 
 

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

I know you like to bag on HB but the above chart is from Bloomberg's opinion writer on energy.  Not exactly a pro Russian mouthpiece.  and LNG demand issues are real with or without Russia's 8% of supply

It’s all so tiresome.

 

6 minutes ago, ABSR said:

The apparent attack had no immediate effect on European energy supplies; Nord Stream 2 has never gone into service, and Nord Stream 1 has been shut down since August.

So the impact of this to actual supply is zero.   The only thing this affects is if Putin is ever deposed/killed, Russia pulled out of Pre-2014 Ukraine, Russia returned all of the kidnapped Ukrainians, and Russia started paying reparations.....THEN we could open up the supply again.  

So yeah, big immediate impact.

AND we all know it was Russia/Putin who did it because no one else benefits and no one else is this stupid and obvious.   So Putin remains a master strategist!

The impact of this is to supply for the next several years. My understanding is new LNG ports take 3-5 years to build so new capacity isn’t coming online soon. New Russian leader or resolved conflict could’ve allowed gas to flow as a bridge until that capacity is available. Refilling storage the next few years will be more difficult as well. 
 

5 minutes ago, texastough said:

More than the Vlad fellating, its HB's conclusions based off stuff like that. Oh, gas prices are going to be high for a few years, Now We'Re aLL FucKeD!! Or, Europe was able to pivot away from its decades long reliance on Russian gas in less than a year, with minimal short term pain to completely decouple from a totally fucked country run by a genocidal maniac.

You have to think beyond the obvious. There’s downstream effects that have been discussed here plenty. 
 

European/German deindustrialization with all the societal issues that come with it.

Fertilizer production is dependent on NG. Higher costs mean less fertilizer, means lower crop yields. Increased food scarcity. Especially in developing nations that can less afford the new high prices. 
 

Higher energy costs put upward pressure on inflation globally. 
 

We’ve seen the effects of high energy costs on seemingly strong nations with their currencies. Pound, Euro, Yen, Yuan all rekt and still worsening. The complete fallout from this is still unknown. 
 

 

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11 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

The complete fallout from this is still unknown. 
 

Unknown....but CELEBRATED by ahem, a certain poster.  I'm thinking there's one big answer to this.....

CRYPTO!

Oh, and also, give in to whatever Putin wants.  Can't forget that.  It's the secret ingredient that makes everything better.

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-leak-russian-navy-ships/index.html
 

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European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines likely caused by underwater explosions, according two Western intelligence officials and one other source familiar with the matter.

It’s unclear whether the ships had anything to do with those explosions, these sources and others said – but it’s one of the many factors that investigators will be looking into. Russian submarines were also observed not far from those areas last week, one of the intelligence officials said.

 

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Russian ships routinely operate in the area, according to one Danish military official, who emphasized that the presence of the ships doesn’t necessarily indicate that Russia caused the damage.

“We see them every week,” this person said. “Russian activities in the Baltic Sea have increased in recent years. They’re 

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But one senior US official and a US military official both said Russia is still the leading suspect – assuming that the European assessment of deliberate sabotage is borne out – because there are no other plausible suspects with the ability and will to carry out the operation. 

“It’s hard to imagine any other actor in the region with the capabilities and interest to carry out such an operation,” the Danish military official said. 

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Russia has requested a UN Security Council meeting on the damaged pipeline this week – something the senior US official said is also suspicious. Typically, the official said, Russia isn’t organized enough to move so quickly, suggesting that the maneuver was pre-planned.

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But officials familiar with the latest intelligence say that Moscow would likely view such a step as worth the price if it helped raise the costs of supporting Ukraine for Europe. US and western intelligence officials believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is gambling that as electricity costs rise and winter approaches, European publics could turn against the Western strategy of isolating Russia economically. Sabotaging the pipelines could “show what Russia is capable of,” one US official said.

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Russia has already taken steps to manipulate energy flows in ways that caused itself economic pain, but also hurt Europe. Russia slashed gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1 before suspending flows altogether in August, blaming Western sanctions for causing technical difficulties. European politicians say that was a pretext to stop supplying gas.

 

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