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Realignment talk not going away


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24 minutes ago, Trojan Man said:

I thought both schools plus the fair preferred having that game early.  Have the schools or ESPN said what time it will kickoff after you join the SEC?

It's not necessarily that people want it early, it's just that they're avoiding making it a night game.  So 11 or 2:30 are the slots where it will be played depending on TV broadcast options for the day.

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4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

If it's on the national window, it's 11am still even when we join the SEC. If it's regional, 2:30. If CBS was still a thing, it would be 2:30. 

Now that ESPN/ABC have the SEC game of the week, that 230 window will no longer be regional.  I assume the 11am window will become the regional time slot and TX/OU will have more 230 kicks going forward.

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Now that ESPN/ABC have the SEC game of the week, that 230 window will no longer be regional.  I assume the 11am window will become the regional time slot and TX/OU will have more 230 kicks going forward.

So will the 2:30 spotlight game be on ESPN channel or will they air it on ABC?  If they put it on ABC, they will beat CBS in ratings

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Now that ESPN/ABC have the SEC game of the week, that 230 window will no longer be regional.  I assume the 11am window will become the regional time slot and TX/OU will have more 230 kicks going forward.

Do you know this for certain?  Has Disney/ABC indicated it is going to change its decades-long scheduling practice of putting its national game at 11?

If so, cool, but I don't think I'd assume that ABC is going to act the same way CBS did with its national games for the SEC, since CBS never had an 11 AM slot anyway.

Edit: I'll also add that due to the capability to reverse mirror onto ESPN and ESPN2, a "national game" on ABC isn't quite the same as a national game on CBS.  Disney does have more flexibility when it comes to subdividing regionally and the 11 AM "national" slot doesn't have quite the importance for them that it did two decades ago, so I could see them making both 11 AM and 2:30 PM semi-national.

Edited by utee94
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7 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Unless something changes, LSU usually plays Florida on the same day as Texas - OU. ABC/ESPN will pick the better game each year. Regardless, 230pm RRR games should be a thing again. 

Florida plays Missouri on that Saturday this season, and they played Vanderbilt on that same day last season.   LSU plays Tennessee this year, and last year they played Kentucky.

But I certainly agree with the general sentiment that if Texas continues to suck, TX-OU will risk getting moved down the priority list. 

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

When I ran an analysis a couple of years back, 11am games did draw bigger audiences than 2:30pm after controlling for teams and network. Not a massive difference but I assume similar analyses are why Big Noon is a thing on Fox and why ABC made 11am their main slot. 

Yup.  In the late 90s up through maybe 2001 or 2002, ABC had them reversed.  Their 2:30 slot was national and their 11 AM slot was regional.  But I'm assuming they performed similar analysis and came to the conclusion that isolating for timeslot alone, 11 AM was better for their national game.  And it's been that way ever since.

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16 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

Don't screw Western teams with 9 AM local kickoffs at home, don't screw Eastern teams with 10 PM local kickoffs at home.  Give those kickoffs to the teams that won't have their attendance and atmosphere killed by it.  Seems pretty simple and fair to me.

While your comment makes sense to fans, it doesn't necessarily make sense to TV executives.

16 hours ago, Js1 said:

Truth 

Fox tells USC to host at 9am and they said “yes daddy, thank you for our annual check”

I can see Fox telling USC to have one 9am local game to see how the ratings do. Maybe the whole country watches Ohio St at USC with a 9am PT kickoff...

 

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19 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

What’s Herbstreit’s contract at ESPN look like? FOX would probably give him a raise, and he could focus more on his beloved Ohio State. 
 

I doubt he wants to stick around at ESPN to fluff the SEC, and talk shit on the Big Ten. 
 

I would fully support this move. 

That would be sticky for Herbstreit since the new rights deal is split between CBS, NBC, and FOX. There is no guarantee that he would get to cover his beloved Buckeye games often enough, and the only real place he could go and be a top guy would be NBC. FOX and CBS already have their A list broadcaster teams in Klatt and Gus and Nessler and Danielson. 

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10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Don't hold your breath on Notre Dame jumping to the Big 10.

 

Their AD and President are so fucking out of the loop with modern terms.....


When BIG and SEC are making 100 million plus each team and they're stuck at 70-80 range then they'll change. 


Just some 70 year olds stuck in the old way.

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You could say that for just about every other school out there except Notre Dame. They are a host unto themselves. For them having Notre Dame home games broadcast on a singular network is more important than total dollars. They will still have a special carve out for the playoff. They bring in eyeballs which brings in dollars. They still get their marquee games with USC every year. They still get a big name OOC opponent every year. I actually quite enjoy that they can give the Big 10 the finger. 

To wit:

 

Edited by mdmost
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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

That extra $20M is not going to elevate Indiana and Purdue past Notre Dame and they know it.  It won't elevate anyone in the Big 10 past them other than schools that are already on their level.

That’s the point. They’d be a tier behind the elites still. 
 

 

and idk a business person in the world that would turn down an extra 20-30 million more per year. 

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Just now, Al_4_ISU said:

That extra $20M is not going to elevate Indiana and Purdue past Notre Dame and they know it.  It won't elevate anyone in the Big 10 past them other than schools that are already on their level.

Right. Indiana and Purdue are being paid to be a punching bag for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. And they'll gladly take it. They may jump up ever so often and bite a big name but the money isn't going to lead to them challenging the top schools for supremacy. Meanwhile, Notre Dame can sit over there and create their own schedules each year, pick and choose the ACC teams they want to host, and keep their yearly rivalry games that still have meaning to them. 

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1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Right. Indiana and Purdue are being paid to be a punching bag for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. And they'll gladly take it. They may jump up ever so often and bite a big name but the money isn't going to lead to them challenging the top schools for supremacy. Meanwhile, Notre Dame can sit over there and create their own schedules each year, pick and choose the ACC teams they want to host, and keep their yearly rivalry games that still have meaning to them. 

Until the BIG says their biggest game of the season won’t be possible due to USC scheduling. It’s something that was mentioned a while back by one of the reporters who covers realignment stuff. Big uses that game as leverage. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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1 hour ago, Thiefery said:

So will the 2:30 spotlight game be on ESPN channel or will they air it on ABC?  If they put it on ABC, they will beat CBS in ratings

 

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Do you know this for certain?  Has Disney/ABC indicated it is going to change its decades-long scheduling practice of putting its national game at 11?

If so, cool, but I don't think I'd assume that ABC is going to act the same way CBS did with its national games for the SEC, since CBS never had an 11 AM slot anyway.

Edit: I'll also add that due to the capability to reverse mirror onto ESPN and ESPN2, a "national game" on ABC isn't quite the same as a national game on CBS.  Disney does have more flexibility when it comes to subdividing regionally and the 11 AM "national" slot doesn't have quite the importance for them that it did two decades ago, so I could see them making both 11 AM and 2:30 PM semi-national.

It was reported that they were taking over that game in that time slot.

The deal will establish ABC as the new broadcast home for the SEC’s flagship Saturday afternoon football games, as well as selected Saturday primetime fixtures and the annual conference championship.”

https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/sec-espn-abc-football-tv-rights-cbs/

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

That’s the point. They’d be a tier behind the elites still. 
 

 

and idk a business person in the world that would turn down an extra 20-30 million more per year. 

Because they are in a position to not have to worry about money. When has Notre Dame ever complained about not having enough money or being unable to fund anything at the school? 

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4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Until the BIG says their biggest game of the season won’t be possible due to USC scheduling. 

Okay. The Big 10 is going to turn down USC playing Notre Dame, a game their TV partners will get every year if NBC keeps Notre Dame home games? 

Edited by mdmost
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On 8/9/2022 at 5:46 AM, hawkfan said:

Agreed, I just don't see the B1G having the lineup to fill out 3 national OTA games for the type of numbers being thrown around unless the networks know something we don't.

It's either ND or maybe the B1G has agreed to play more conference games to increase ratings.  It seems like we're missing something.

Well, if we can rule ND out for now, then either they're looking at 10 conference games, or maybe that Dennis Dodd report a couple weeks ago about adding Cal / Stanford / Oregon / Washington (but not at full shares) has some validity.  If they wait to sign the deal before expanding, they can justify full shares for SC/UCLA and partial shares, or lengthy phase-in shares, for the expansion schools.  I'm sure that the Big Ten presidents would love to come up with a way to make adding Stanford, Cal, and Washington viable.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-evaluating-cal-oregon-stanford-and-washington-from-pac-12-as-further-expansion-considered/

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17 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Their AD and President are so fucking out of the loop with modern terms.....


When BIG and SEC are making 100 million plus each team and they're stuck at 70-80 range then they'll change. 


Just some 70 year olds stuck in the old way.

They may make less money from their TV deal, but my guess is they think they make up for it by being their own stand-alone entity.  I assume their alumni prefer independence and likely give more based on that, but probably more importantly, I imagine being independent leads to more publicity, which helps the football program and enrollment.  When people talk about the power conferences and the playoff, they generally mention Notre Dame as well.  

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4 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Okay. The Big 10 is going to turn down USC playing Notre Dame, a game their TV partners will get every year if NBC keeps Notre Dame home games? 

Replace it with USC/Michigan whomever. 
 

 

just repeating what he said. That’s assuming Notre dame gets 70-80 million. I estimated that on high end. 
 

 

if their deal is less than that it would essentially force their hand. 

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Notre Dame values their independence more than an extra 20 million. Autonomy means more to them than money, which they have plenty of thanks to their donor base. Any network would fall all over themselves to pay Notre Dame market value. They get eyeballs and that's all that matters. You have to stop thinking Notre Dame is like other programs. Everything you attest to the motivations of another program do not apply to Notre Dame.

And I'll believe the move to 10 conference games when I see it. Everyone loves their cupcakes. 

Edited by mdmost
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22 minutes ago, hawkfan said:

Like I said, ND won't make the decision based on money, they'll make it when conferences go to 10 conference games and they can't fill a schedule anymore outside the left behinds.

They're not in a position where they have to make the move.... Yet.

Under the Swarbrick regime, you could be right. But who knows once Swarbrick was gone.

ND reminds me of Texas under DeLoss Dodds. Dodds was here before OU v. NCAA back in 1984. I thought then that Texas would go to the SEC. But it always seemed to me that Dodds hated the SEC. Finally, Dodds left. While we had a couple of ADs before CDC, true, CDC and the Admin had the huevos to pull the trigger. And while I understand the AD does not have the final say as to what conference Texas is a part of, is there any legitimate doubt the AD can guide such a decision?

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39 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Notre Dame values their independence more than an extra 20 million. Autonomy means more to them than money, which they have plenty of thanks to their donor base. Any network would fall all over themselves to pay Notre Dame market value. They get eyeballs and that's all that matters. You have to stop thinking Notre Dame is like other programs. Everything you attest to the motivations of another program do not apply to Notre Dame.

And I'll believe the move to 10 conference games when I see it. Everyone loves their cupcakes. 

They love money more, as the events of the last 40 years have shown.

When the networks offer to pay them more to get rid of the cupcakes and increase ratings, they will.  There will be significantly less resistance to that once the playoff expands to 12/16 and everyone has more margin for error to play for the national title.

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59 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Well, if we can rule ND out for now, then either they're looking at 10 conference games, or maybe that Dennis Dodd report a couple weeks ago about adding Cal / Stanford / Oregon / Washington (but not at full shares) has some validity.  If they wait to sign the deal before expanding, they can justify full shares for SC/UCLA and partial shares, or lengthy phase-in shares, for the expansion schools.  I'm sure that the Big Ten presidents would love to come up with a way to make adding Stanford, Cal, and Washington viable.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-ten-evaluating-cal-oregon-stanford-and-washington-from-pac-12-as-further-expansion-considered/

Gross.  Stanford is the only other Pac team I hope gets into the Big 10, and they're only worth it if they seal the deal to land Notre Dame.  3 California schools means they all get 1 easy travel road game per year, plus the LA sphere of influence doesn't quite extend to the Bay Area so having a team up there helps with recruiting.  Stanford is merely apathetic towards football as opposed to Cal being outright hostile towards football and Stanford is private meaning no California politics baggage so they get the nod.  I wouldn't mind Utah getting in eventually, but I wouldn't lose sleep over it if they don't.

The rest can rot.  That would be such a letdown if the Big 10 goes on a Pac invitation spree.  We're finally in a conference full of teams that prioritize football and plays primetime games when the country isn't asleep and never has SOS issues, only to be told "Here's your new Big 10 schedule: UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington and maybe you'll play Ohio State or Michigan once every 4 years and also every game against your old Pac 12 foes is at 10 PM ET to fill the late night slots."  We left the Pac 12 to leave that bullshit behind, not re-brand it with the Big 10's logo.

Fuck the Pacific Northwest schools, and Oregon in particular.  For decades the PNW schools led the choir for equal revenue sharing as the only fair choice when they were the beneficiaries and USC and UCLA were pulling the cart, but as soon as the LA Clydesdales left the barn and it's their turn to prop up all the Pac's deadweight they do a 180 and demand unequal revenue shares and LARP as if they're bluebloods.  Two-faced pieces of shit.  Earlier in this thread somebody said Oregon is the anti-aggy and they're absolutely right, that program offers fuck all to their conference.  They're parasites.  They bring nothing for recruiting, they don't have any major markets, they've never won a national title.  There are no benefits to being associated with Oregon, all they do is take.  Kneecapping their recruiting by keeping them on the outside looking in would be very beneficial for USC, UCLA, Ohio State and any Big 10 team planning on making California recruiting inroads.  The only fun thing about inviting additional Pac teams would be lording our full share to their partial shares over them as proof their world view was dead wrong for all the years they insisted they were just as important and valuable as USC and UCLA.

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3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Do you know this for certain?  Has Disney/ABC indicated it is going to change its decades-long scheduling practice of putting its national game at 11?

If so, cool, but I don't think I'd assume that ABC is going to act the same way CBS did with its national games for the SEC, since CBS never had an 11 AM slot anyway.

Edit: I'll also add that due to the capability to reverse mirror onto ESPN and ESPN2, a "national game" on ABC isn't quite the same as a national game on CBS.  Disney does have more flexibility when it comes to subdividing regionally and the 11 AM "national" slot doesn't have quite the importance for them that it did two decades ago, so I could see them making both 11 AM and 2:30 PM semi-national.

I'd be shocked if ABC stops mirroring, matter a fact, with the money involved, I'd expect more of it.   If you can draw 6m viewers in the SE, and 7m total nationally, they can split up the NE (ACC) and West (Pac/B12) with two 3m broadcasts and get 12m total.   This is how the NFL does it as well, with each DMA being partitioned only to a local team in their home game.   Annoys those of us who want to watch a different game, but maximizes eyeballs across the entire window.

It wouldn't shock me if Fox/NBC/CBS did this as well with the Pac/B12 negotiations to say, split up a window where the Big Ten game is out east to mirror it with a Pac 12 game out west.  

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

That’s the point. They’d be a tier behind the elites still. 
 

 

and idk a business person in the world that would turn down an extra 20-30 million more per year. 

People turn down extra money to avoid situations they don't want to be in every single day.

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2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, my guess is that $20 mil or even $30 mil is worth it to ND to keep their old timers' love of independence happy. If it were $50 million, they might reconsider. But if they're really within $20 million of the BIG, they'll take it and stay independent.

While money doesn't hurt, exposure and recruiting are more important.  

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20-30 Million is a lot of money to turn down even for ND. They lost 2 of their Big 3 coaches this year and while money may not have been the biggest factor in each it will only get worse if they are 30 million behind. If Freeman starts winning then what is stopping Penn State or Michigan State or Nebraska from using that surplus of 30 million to pry him away.

These programs that weren't able to make money with donor subsidization will suddenly all be profitable and those same donor funds will/should be reallocated to NIL and facilities upgrades. 30 million may not matter if that was the difference over a decade but per year is a whole different animal. 

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2 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

20-30 Million is a lot of money to turn down even for ND. They lost 2 of their Big 3 coaches this year and while money may not have been the biggest factor in each it will only get worse if they are 30 million behind. If Freeman starts winning then what is stopping Penn State or Michigan State or Nebraska from using that surplus of 30 million to pry him away.

These programs that weren't able to make money with donor subsidization will suddenly all be profitable and those same donor funds will/should be reallocated to NIL and facilities upgrades. 30 million may not matter if that was the difference over a decade but per year is a whole different animal. 

Notre Dame can pay him more money than he'll ever need and possibly want, and if he likes being the coach there, why would he move?

Big 10 and SEC schools have been getting much larger TV checks than Texas for awhile.  Texas still has a bigger budget.  Michigan State isn't going to to just be able to money whip a coach from Notre Dame at that kind of TV difference.

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9 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Notre Dame can pay him more money than he'll ever need and possibly want, and if he likes being the coach there, why would he move?

If rumors are true, supposedly one of the driving forces for Kelly leaving was that Notre Dame was unwilling to pony up the cash for an assistant coach budget that was comparable to the pool that other elites had to work with. Result being frequent poaching (money whipping) of promising ND assistants for what would otherwise be lateral moves, hamstringing the program's potential. Believe it was also a rumored issue even before Kelly regime. ND being a private makes it difficult to verify. 

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Just now, derpyhorndog said:

If rumors are true, supposedly one of the driving forces for Kelly leaving was that Notre Dame was unwilling to pony up the cash for an assistant coach budget that was comparable to the pool that other elites had to work with. Result being frequent poaching (money whipping) of promising ND assistants for what would otherwise be lateral moves, hamstringing the program's potential. Believe it was also a rumored issue even before Kelly regime. ND being a private makes it difficult to verify. 

A lot of it comes down to the individual too.  Kelly is clearly a pretty greasy dude and will absolutely be motivated by money more than, say, Pat Fitzgerald who seems to just really like where they are.

At the end of the day, I'm just saying it's not really that surprising that Notre Dame prefers Independence to whatever the Big 10 pay increase will be.

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8 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Notre Dame can pay him more money than he'll ever need and possibly want, and if he likes being the coach there, why would he move?

Big 10 and SEC schools have been getting much larger TV checks than Texas for awhile.  Texas still has a bigger budget.  Michigan State isn't going to to just be able to money whip a coach from Notre Dame at that kind of TV difference.

MSU just paid Tucker the same deal that Kelly got at LSU before the new TV deal kicks in. I think part of why Kelly left was because that deal and the Franklin deal set a new floor for elite coaches and obviously ND couldn't hold onto Kelly. What happens when these new TV deals pay 100/year and ND has to convince coaches not to take a 50%+ raise all guaranteed? 

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As an ND fan I feel like I see this different. He was complaining about travel, he did not come out and declare independence or die, he said no 3rd super conference, also was complimentary to Warren. I will have to go back and listen. 

 

This interview to me was the weakest I have ever heard when declaring independence. Too me he was laying ground work. Maybe I am wrong.

Edited by nd2003
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29 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Don't get me wrong, I can see that there are obvious reasons ND would join the Big 10 (especially with USC in it), but they just aren't motivated in exactly the same way as everyone else.

Money and access to the playoffs are the only things I can see as the reasons they would join. As it stands, they have no reason to go if they can get 75-80 million to stay independent while keeping their normal schedule and they certainly aren't being shut out of the playoff if they are having a good year. Big name teams are always going to want to play Notre Dame because it's a marquee matchup coming to your stadium, even if they go to 10 conference games. There's a lot of cache for beating Notre Dame.  Notre Dame can afford to be the one team that doesn't have to jump at money. They are the special exemption team of the college football universe. ESPN and Fox aren't going to cut them out of the playoff. 

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Notre Dame can pay him more money than he'll ever need and possibly want, and if he likes being the coach there, why would he move?

Big 10 and SEC schools have been getting much larger TV checks than Texas for awhile.  Texas still has a bigger budget.  Michigan State isn't going to to just be able to money whip a coach from Notre Dame at that kind of TV difference.

Umm this is America man.  Most people always want more money.

I don’t think your second statement is true. Conference distribution sure, but add in the LHN and if Texas made less I still wouldn’t says SEC/B1G we’re making ‘much’ more.

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4 hours ago, mdmost said:

You could say that for just about every other school out there except Notre Dame. They are a host unto themselves. For them having Notre Dame home games broadcast on a singular network is more important than total dollars. They will still have a special carve out for the playoff. They bring in eyeballs which brings in dollars. They still get their marquee games with USC every year. They still get a big name OOC opponent every year. I actually quite enjoy that they can give the Big 10 the finger. 

To wit:

 

People who listened to the interview have said ND was the least committed to independence that they have ever heard.  Swarbick was complaining about travel to Tallahassee.  So while there certainly wasn't any imminent to Big 10 statements, he didn't rule it out the way ND usually does.  He also talked about consolidation. I think he understands ND eventually has to join Big 10.  Doesn't mean he intends to be the one to make that decision.

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