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Realignment talk not going away


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4 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

I kind of miss Aggy, but more just in the way of missing out on the yearly comedy of their expectations vs. reality... e.g. the Thujone "Annual Aggy rollercoaster."

I can obviously still observe and be amused from afar, but it's better when it's up close and personal.

Yes, it's much more fun to directly kick them while they're down than it is to watch others do it, but the latter is also enjoyable

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5 minutes ago, Dirk X West said:

Yes, it's much more fun to directly kick them while they're down than it is to watch others do it, but the latter is also enjoyable

It's the main reason I miss playing the ags and am looking forward to renewing the series.  It's so much fun to watch the Horns beat the shit out of them.  

 

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2 hours ago, utee94 said:

It's the main reason I miss playing the ags and am looking forward to renewing the series.  It's so much fun to watch the Horns beat the shit out of them.  

 

Them falling on their face on the way out of the Big 12 was just so fun. 

Case McCoy herping and derping his way to that upset win in that last game between you guys was absolutely glorious.

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Ehhhh…looking back at it- the Ags were 9-4 the year before they announced their departure to the SEC, and 6-6 in the B12 after they announced, and 11-2 their first year in the B12. They lost by one point to OSU, three points in OT to KSU, and two points to Texas. Did they get the B12 officiating job that UT has been experiencing the last couple of years? Honestly- if they had not been called for targeting on the winning Texas drive, would anyone get upset or remember it?(ducks) (this is why I’m hesitant to bash Sark- the B12 thumb is on the scale)

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14 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Dodds wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination but he tried to get the conference to work together and the other schools refused. He pitched the first ever conference network and the rest of the conference voted down even investigating it. Texas didn't want conference leadership to suck.

Texas wanted the current ND AD, Jack Swarbick.  OU wanted the real Dan Beebe.

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10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

There is no way they'd kick out Rutgers and Maryland.   Even if neither ever wins a game, they're worth so much to BTN - roughly $250M a year.   UCLA/USC add around $130m/year.     Missouri isn't in that camp.

And they are worth a lot being in the DC and NYC metro.  Lots of rich Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio St., etc. alums live there.  Big 10 uses it to connect to big donors.

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Bobby:

 

With the Big 12’s new TV contract settled, we continue to hear that Texas, Oklahoma and the Big 12 are working toward resolution regarding the timing of the departure of the Longhorns and Sooners.

While all three parties continue to publicly state that 2025 is the official year of transition for Texas and OU to the SEC, all three parties, the Big 12 included, would like it to be earlier.

It’s like a divorce. No one wants to stay in the marriage longer than necessary. They’d each rather get on with their life.

The new TV deal gives the remaining Big 12 schools and incoming ones the runway to begin moving forward without the Horns and Sooners.

**

So how do these things move forward and ultimately get decided?

Legally, it’s the same way many divorces are handled: mediation.

That’s the next necessary step.
 

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23 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bobby:

 

With the Big 12’s new TV contract settled, we continue to hear that Texas, Oklahoma and the Big 12 are working toward resolution regarding the timing of the departure of the Longhorns and Sooners.

While all three parties continue to publicly state that 2025 is the official year of transition for Texas and OU to the SEC, all three parties, the Big 12 included, would like it to be earlier.

It’s like a divorce. No one wants to stay in the marriage longer than necessary. They’d each rather get on with their life.

The new TV deal gives the remaining Big 12 schools and incoming ones the runway to begin moving forward without the Horns and Sooners.

**

So how do these things move forward and ultimately get decided?

Legally, it’s the same way many divorces are handled: mediation.

That’s the next necessary step.
 

Shocked.  Figures they would want at least two years worth of games with us. Maybe the networks threw them a bone and asked them to play nice?

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The nerdiest realignment article you'll ever read (or not read, no judgement):

Tessier-Lavigne says conference realignment conversations are underway at Faculty Senate meeting

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Confidential conversations are underway about whether Stanford should pursue conference realignment, the University president said at Thursday’s Faculty Senate meeting.

“There is a lot that’s happening behind closed doors right now,” said Stanford President Marc Tessier-Lavigne. “I am not at liberty to divulge those except to say that the 10 universities are focused on working with our commissioner to strike a deal that would be good for the conference, but more importantly good for our student athletes.” 

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However, the financial overview revealed that the athletics department is running a financial loss. “The income and expenses do not match,” Koseff said. “It’s something that is actively being worked on.”

Koseff pointed out that $40 million is derived from the Pac-12 through media rights and March Madness. This large sum “should be what drives a lot of decision-making going forward,” Koseff said. 

In terms of the national landscape, there are shifting allegiances. USC and UCLA left the Pac-12 to join the Big 10. The Pac-12 and the Big 10 are NCAA Division I athletic conferences. 

Since this move, conference realignment has been a topic of consideration among the Stanford administration, according to Koseff. Schools in the Big 10 make significantly more from media rights, which could result in “an extra $50 million,” Koseff said.

“It has enormous consequences for our student athletes so it is not an issue that can be taken lightly,” Koseff said.

 

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Pac-12 should be concerned about visibility, not value compared to Big 12 as new media rights deal nears

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Those hung up on the value of media rights deals at this point aren't asking the right questions. Whether the Pac-12 makes more than the Big 12 isn't the issue. It has become less about money and more about visibility.

The advantage of the Big 12 jumping the line to sign a new media rights deal with ESPN and Fox last month at least secures the conference's future: It will continue to be shown on linear television. The money is the money, an average of $31.66 million per school beginning in 2025 with an all-in figure of about $50 million per school annually when the College Football Playoff expands.

The Pac-12 is expected to finalize a deal in principle by the beginning of 2023, two industry sources told CBS Sports. One source said the league had sent out a "robust" proposal to ESPN and Amazon.

If a deal with ESPN and a streaming giant like Amazon is reached, the Pac-12 would likely be able to command a sum approximate to the Big 12's base figure. (The Pac-12's all-in total -- including the CFP, bowl games and NCAA Tournament payouts -- wouldn't be as large, mostly because the value of Pac-12 basketball pales in comparison to that of the Big 12.)

By cutting in line, the Big 12 also gets access to broadcast windows already choked with premium Big Ten and SEC content. Those two giants already will be dominating the day with Big Noon (Fox), the valuable 3:30 window (SEC) and Big Ten Saturday Night (NBC). USC and UCLA will also be playing Big Ten games in the late-night fourth window.

Rather, the biggest question for the Pac-12 remains: Who will see its games? For the first time, a Power Five conference would be showing significant content on a stand-alone streaming service without a TV affiliation. It's possible that caused strong push back from inside his conference when Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren kept advocating for adding California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington in expansion.

Not only are those schools not worth the $75 million per year Big Ten schools got in their new media rights deal, the likes of Purdue, Minnesota and Indiana pushed back against further expansion. They didn't want some of their games relegated to a still-emerging streaming platform. (The Big Ten negotiated with Amazon while weighing its options, but a sizable bid was turned down, according to SportsBusiness Journal.)

For the moment, Amazon has let it be known it is only doing business with must-see, premium live sports television properties, namely the NFL.

"[Amazon has] no interest in bad games," one industry source said.

Another industry source suggested, if Amazon wants to go all-in in premium live sports, it might make a big bid for part of the expanded College Football Playoff and pass on the Pac-12 altogether.

Amazon claims 200 million Amazon Prime subscribers worldwide. It does not break out U.S. subscribers. Whatever conferences are being told by Amazon could be subject to wide interpretation. What if the majority of U.S. subscriptions are on both coasts? That might appeal to the Pac-12 but certainly not the Big Ten, which is centered in the Midwest and Northeast.

If the Big Ten were to expand and need a fourth partner, its newly available content would likely come after the top 70 games that are currently split between ESPN and Fox. That's a lot of Cal-Purdues and Stanford-Minnesotas. That's also a long of angry coaches, athletic directors and administrators worrying how their games are going to be seen by fans and recruits. The Pac-12 is already losing quality content with departure of USC and UCLA.

The Big 12 remains curious about adding Pac-12 teams in expansion. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark wouldn't mind having members in all four time zones, which would all but guarantee content in four of those television windows.

So how, exactly, is the Pac-12 going to position its games so folks can see them? A heavy reliance on streaming could work, it's just not industry standard right now. If anything, there has been a resurgence of traditional platforms.

The Big Ten went primarily with three over-the-air broadcast networks: CBS, Fox and NBC. Depending what the Pac-12 does, the Big 12 may be the only Power Five conference partnered with the two linear cable giants: ESPN and Fox.

The Pac-12 would be betting on the future. Streaming is coming, big-time. Experts suggest it's going to replace linear TV. Just not yet. Only 85% of the country have at least one streaming subscription.

That's why it's wise to ignore the media rights revenue aspect when it comes to comparing the Big 12 and Pac-12. Whether they're $45 million or $50 million behind the SEC and Big Ten, it's still a massive disadvantage.

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Will the Big 12 expand further?

Details have emerged on the inner workings of Big 12 expansion. While it's no secret Yormark wouldn't mind expanding beyond 12 teams, Big 12 partner ESPN has agreed to pay pro rata (equal value to existing teams) should the Big 12 add members, CBS Sports has confirmed. Meanwhile, the league's other partner, Fox, has not made such an agreement.

ESPN owns 63% of the value of the $2.3 billion contract that begins in 2025. As such, it gets top picks with the four best football games each season, six of the top eight, eight of the top 12 and 12 of the top 20, according to SportsBusiness Journal. Fox, which owns the remaining 37% of the deal, receives 26 games per season.

If the Big 12 expands, the new team(s) would get 63% of pro rata revenue (approximately $20 million). Should Fox not approve of expansion, the Big 12 would retain the right to shop those added games to other media partners. Still, those added games wouldn't be available for a new partner until after Fox had made all its picks.

In 2016, the Big 12 was guaranteed pro rata from ESPN for any teams it added in expansion -- up to $1 billion in additional funds. The league ultimately decided not to expand.

The current Big 12 deal isn't finalized until the partners sign what is called the long-form contract. That includes the final grant of rights that secures schools TV rights to the conference for the term of the deal. Big 12 sources say it is safe to assume the league wouldn't have done a deal with ESPN and Fox without the "commitment" of the conference's board of directors (school presidents).

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Is San Diego State on the move?

There's all kinds of speculation surrounding San Diego State joining the Pac-12. If the Mountain West school does make the jump, the Pac-12 would not have to necessarily bring in a 12th member to balance the schedule. That's right, the current Pac-12 (with only 10 teams beginning 2024) could be the Pac-11.

The NCAA changed its minimum membership requirements years ago at the request of the Big 12, ironically enough. In 2016, the NCAA ruled a league with less than 12 members could stage a championship game. In 2017, the Big 12 reinstated its championship with a 10-team league.  

That was a precursor to modern league composition. Since that year, the Big 12 has matched its first- and second-place teams in its league title game. That worked out so well in terms of playoff access that other leagues caught on to the idea. The AAC and Pac-12 currently play in one "table." Other leagues are expected to follow.

A Pac-11 makes sense in that it would be hard enough to squeeze pro rata (equal value) media rights out of San Diego State in comparison to the other 10 schools. Adding a 12th member would further split the pie.

"We continue to have conversations all along with various entities," said San Diego State AD J.D. Whicker when asked about going to the Pac-12. "As we assess those, we'll make the best decision for San Diego State."

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Gonzaga is talking ...

The Big 12 is not the only league kicking the tires on Gonzaga basketball.

"Gonzaga's talking to everybody right now," said a person familiar with the conversations. "They're looking at all their options. I think they're interested in ensuring that they can protect themselves going forward. If you have the opportunity to go to the Pac-12 or Big 12, [you've got to do it.]"

The addition of Gonzaga to an already-loaded Big 12 would add to what is widely considered the best Division I basketball league. It's not clear what rightsholder would pay for the addition. Basketball is considered only 20% of any media rights deal. What would one team be worth?

One industry insider said the move would make sense for ESPN, which owns WCC rights (where Gonzaga currently resides). It could shift that money to the Big 12 in some way, because without Gonzaga (a national program), the WCC becomes something akin to a low major.

 

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https://www.yakimaherald.com/sports/college_sports/uw_sports/commentary-assessing-the-state-of-the-pac-12-media-rights-negotiations-and-expansion-plans/article_33185f70-8fe2-5bea-8a3a-5dc115aac887.html
 

PAC10 expansion Jon Wilner says…

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If we were handicapping the expansion landscape, SMU would be a co-favorite with SDSU.

 

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11 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Some wishful thinking there:

"...We do not believe the formation of a Big Ten western division is imminent, for three reasons:

— Big Ten presidents don’t have the appetite to destroy the Pac-12.

— Big Ten media partners don’t have enough cash available to support four more schools.

— Remaining West Coast options don’t carry media valuations (as a collective) that make them accretive for the Big Ten...."

Big 10 has already destroyed the Pac 12 and taking Nebraska sealed the eventual fate of the Big 12 forcing the haves to leave.

Big 10 media partners have all the cash they need.  So do Amazon and ESPN who aren't part.

The last might be an issue.  But the small difference wouldn't stop a 2 team addition if the Big 10 wanted it strategically.

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On 11/8/2022 at 10:17 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

BIG is a much better conference built for sustainability when that happened. PAC is struggling to even get a TV deal agreed to. 

Washington/Oregon desperately want out. Arizona/Arizona State looking to bolt as well.

Apparently the hangup on a tv deal is Kliavkoff clinging to the pipe dream that he can get the UC Regents to overrule UCLA's move to the B1G, which isn't happening.  But that piece needs resolution prior to signing.

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22 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Apparently the hangup on a tv deal is Kliavkoff clinging to the pipe dream that he can get the UC Regents to overrule UCLA's move to the B1G, which isn't happening.  But that piece needs resolution prior to signing.

How likely is it that UCLA is forced to hand over some of that sweet sweet B1G revenue to Cal?

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36 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

How likely is it that UCLA is forced to hand over some of that sweet sweet B1G revenue to Cal?

I have to think very slim.  It would be unprecedented and really unjustifiable.  And would result in lawsuits, which I think no one wants.

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2 hours ago, BigHornedLurker said:

only new thing i want out of realignment is for the Big 10 to be appropriately attributed with killing those rose bowl 

The ultimate disrespect will be when eventually the B1G fully takes over the PAC remnants and turns the Rose Bowl into the site of the B1G championship game.

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What no has explained yet is why is everyone so confident that the PAC 10 will get a contract at or larger than the Big 12. When they opened negotiations with ESPN and Fox their reported offer was 24 million a year per team. Since then, Fox dropped its bid completely and supposedly ESPN's only competition is Amazon whose actions lead one to believe that they are positioning themselves for the NBA not a Pac 10 that just lost it's two most valuable brands. We are suppose to believe that Espn is willing to pay for a shared PAC 10 at top dollar when they have plenty of inventory and adding PAC 10 schools would just be icing on the cake? And why does Amazon feel so generous that they will offer the PAC 10 a higher contract when by all accounts they have next to no competition. They could offer 25 million a year per team for all three tiers and there would be no one to outbid them. Does Amazon want to get into college football so bad that they are willing to overpay for a mediocre league that barely fills its stadiums every week. They would be better off bidding for the Mountain West at a way cheaper price with less financial risk. Also, has Oregon and Washington just decided that they have given up on the Big10 dream and they are willing to make less than their Big12 counterparts for the next 5 to 6 years hoping that less money and exposure is going to make their schools more valuable when the new contracts come up?

Unless these schools are just really that delusional, I would expect that after the contract terms are shared with Pac 10 schools we will see a lot of movement. I think there's a real chance that Oregon, Washington, Arizona and Utah all make the move. Oregon and Washington would go with the assumption that they will still be waiting for a Big10 invite but they can't let their brands decrease over the next 5-6 years when at that time they may be competing with ACC teams for BIG 10 spots. Maybe I'm missing something but it just seems like If you're a fan of any Pac 10 team you should be emailing school presidents and shouting from the roof tops that you want to join the BIG 12. Staying in the PAC 10 at this point is sentencing your school to irrelevance.

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They have the same inherent disgust for us (the angry eight) institutionally that y’all did.

The difference is we’re going to be a financial upgrade for them, but they seem to content to rot in irrelevance rather than associate with prairie scum.

 

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

They have the same inherent disgust for us (the angry eight) institutionally that y’all did.

The difference is we’re going to be a financial upgrade for them, but they seem to content to rot in irrelevance rather than associate with prairie scum.

 

If not financial, definitely bigger exposure.   The Big 12's new deal is going to get them about:

25-30 games on ESPN, where ESPN is paying priority for the best 20 of that group

20 games combined on Fox/FS1, where likely 8-10 will be Fox

20 games on ESPN+

It would shock me if the Big 12 doesn't at least share the featured Thursday slot on ESPN with the ACC, which leaves about 30 games on ESPN/ABC/FOX throughout the year, likely running off slot to SEC/Big Ten (e.g. SEC on ABC, Big 12 on ESPN, or on ESPN opposite Big Noon).  With ESPN having ACC/SEC/B12 (2/3rds) and FOX having 1/3rd of the Big 12 and two games a week for the Big Ten, the only slots left are AfterDark for the Pac.

I'm just not sure where they go for windows.

 

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With Rutgers, the B1G can make a claim to the NYC market.  I suspect the carriage rates are properly adjusted (derated) for the fact that it's, well, Rutgers.

Rutgers has the 8th largest number of living alumni (per the report I link below).  Rutgers is an AAU member.  There may be considerable value to a large alumni base from a reputable R1 university.   I am certain the B1G considered all of that before offering Rutgers.  I say that and Cal meets the same criteria :)

https://www.universitymagazine.ca/10-biggest-college-alumni-networks-u-s/ 

The B1G has 7 of the 10 colleges with the largest alumni base.  The others: Texas (9), Cal (7), UCLA (5).

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On 11/11/2022 at 7:53 PM, boilerhorn said:

With Rutgers, the B1G can make a claim to the NYC market.  I suspect the carriage rates are properly adjusted (derated) for the fact that it's, well, Rutgers.

Rutgers has the 8th largest number of living alumni (per the report I link below).  Rutgers is an AAU member.  There may be considerable value to a large alumni base from a reputable R1 university.   I am certain the B1G considered all of that before offering Rutgers.  I say that and Cal meets the same criteria :)

https://www.universitymagazine.ca/10-biggest-college-alumni-networks-u-s/ 

The B1G has 7 of the 10 colleges with the largest alumni base.  The others: Texas (9), Cal (7), UCLA (5).

Couple things:

  • Rutgers wasn't "derated" as it isn't just Rutgers' fans watching. They may have been the school in realignment since 2010 that has brought the most financial benefit to their conference and that is only because the Big Ten was structured to take advantage of it with BTN.   They went from gaining around $0.25 per household in NYC prior to around $1.25+ after.   That equates to roughly $180m a year for BTN alone (Fox likely saw a bump in FS1/FS2 in bundling them as well).   It really doesn't matter if Rutgers ever wins a game again, or ever has a game off BTN, the flag is planted, and Rutgers paid for itself many times over.
  • Cal and Rutgers definitely share some academic connections, and Cal is in the middle of the San Fran-Oakland-SJ DMA, but that's kind of where the similarities end.  When the B1G picked up UCLA/USC, it netted them the second largest market with LA, giving BTN the Top 3 in NYC/LA/Chicago, with Penn State being a significant draw in #4, Philly.  Even with LA being #2, it is 2m households smaller than NYC (e.g. a gap the size of the Miami or Minneapolis market), so USC's brand in football and UCLA's in basketball was needed.   Cal is known, and sometimes they're good, but they're not really a brand like USC.   On top of that, while the NoCal market is definitely a draw, it is less than half the size of LA.  The gap between NoCal and NYC is around the size of DFW and Houston - combined.
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12 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This is the way I think every league will go.

Hopefully all leagues retain some form of protected rivalries within them, but this does produce the best CCG by far.  It also brings me a little joy knowing that Iowa, who's been rubbing it in our face that they were born on third and get to suckle at the Buckerine tweet unimpeded will be stuffed into a corner of that league where they will no longer benefit from playing in a god awful division that gives them access to the conference title game.

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So much for having that TV deal before the end of the year:

UC Board of Regents delays decision on UCLA move to Big Ten

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SAN FRANCISCO — The University of California Board of Regents has scheduled a special meeting for Dec. 14 in Los Angeles to finalize a decision on UCLA’s planned move to the Big Ten Conference.

Regents set the date during a meeting in San Francisco on Thursday, the second public session where the move was debated.

UCLA announced on June 30 that it was leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten in 2024, a decision that quickly drew the ire of Gov. Gavin Newsom.

In 1991, campus chancellors were delegated authority by the UC Office of the President to execute their own contracts, including intercollegiate athletic agreements. But the regents heard during an August meeting that they retain the authority to review decisions impacting the UC system, meaning they could affirm, overturn or abstain from following up on UCLA’s decision.

The University of Southern California is also moving to the Big Ten, but it’s a private institution and not part of the UC system.

UCLA chancellor Gene Block and athletic director Martin Jarmond took questions Thursday from the regents on the benefits of the move and their concerns.

Block said the university’s athletic budget will add at least $10 million for additional nutritional, academic and mental health support for athletes and add more charter flights to cut down on travel time. A report in August said eight of UCLA’s 23 sports – baseball, men’s and women’s soccer, men’s and women’s tennis, softball, gymnastics and women’s volleyball – would experience additional travel impact.

A report published by the regents for this week’s meeting estimates that UCLA will see $60 million to $70 million in additional revenue from the Big Ten’s new media rights deal that begins next year. Even factoring in the additional expenses, the Bruins would still see a significant windfall compared to the $34.3 million in media rights and conference distribution it received in 2020, according to the report.

The Pac-12 is also negotiating a new media rights deal, but it is not expected to come close to what the Big Ten receives.

The move would also largely wipe out a $102.8 million deficit in the athletic department. UCLA secured a loan to cover losses, which the athletic department is responsible for repaying with interest.

Initial responses to a survey commissioned by the regents showed many of the UCLA athletes who had participated favored the move. Out of 111 athletes who responded, 35% said joining the Big Ten would be a good idea compared to 7% who thought it was a bad idea. More than one-third of the respondents (38%) said they needed more information and 20% had no opinion.

Nearly 600 surveys were sent out and the regents are hoping more are returned before next month’s meeting.

The regents could require UCLA to pay Cal an exit fee for leaving the Pac-12 or share TV revenues they will gain from a move. UCLA and Cal have played each other in football since 1923.

 

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