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Realignment talk not going away


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4 hours ago, BRLA said:

I may have missed it upthread, but has there been any information on what happens to the annual funds due to UT from the remaining years on the LHN contract?  

I doubt we'll hear about that until after the LHN folds into the SEC Network. I'm sure there's a prorated amount we'll get for agreeing to terminate the network early. I know LHN is not everyone's cup of tea but I'm really going to miss Griffin, Fozzy, and Brian Robison. I'm hoping there's a special carve out for them to still do pre and post games. 

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2 hours ago, mdmost said:

I doubt we'll hear about that until after the LHN folds into the SEC Network. I'm sure there's a prorated amount we'll get for agreeing to terminate the network early. I know LHN is not everyone's cup of tea but I'm really going to miss Griffin, Fozzy, and Brian Robison. I'm hoping there's a special carve out for them to still do pre and post games. 

i'm hoping there's a special carve-out to keep the network period, costs paid by Belmont, profits if any to the conference, all with the agreement that UiL gets monetized

aggy gets to monetize all of the trees in the state - which they don't own

we get to monetize texas high school football - which we do own

LHN lives on

aggy goes apoplectic

abracadabra

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25 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

Here you go.

Spoiler

I’m trying to wrap my head around SMU joining the Pac-12. I get San Diego State in terms of the Southern California footprint, and the Aztecs have been competitive in football and basketball. But SMU, overall, not so much — and they have a sliver of the Dallas market. Can you talk me down on this? — @Cargoman0363

 

That sentiment is completely understandable and, all things being equal, the Mustangs would not have been the Hotline’s first choice for Pac-12 expansion. (Houston was atop our list.)

But the conference must navigate the landscape as it exists, and the Mustangs, in several respects, are the best available option for growing the footprint.

In fact, we view adding SMU as a member in similar fashion to adding Amazon as a media partner: Neither entity can be judged on its merits as of today; both must be evaluated for what they could be in the future.

The Pac-12’s next media contract cycle begins in the summer of 2024 and, depending on the length of the deal, should last until the end of the decade or early in the 2030s.

Let’s envision a seven-year deal, because odd numbers create easy midpoints. The 2027 football season would be halfway through the agreement (three years down, three remaining).

 

The Pac-12 isn’t assessing the viability of Amazon as a means of content distribution based on Prime Video’s market position today. It’s evaluating Amazon for what that partnership would provide midway through the next cycle.

Will streaming be more widely acceptable in the sports media realm in 2027-28 than it is now?

Would technology evolve to the point that viewers did not need to close the app in order to channel surf?

Our advice is to assess SMU football the same way: Will the Mustangs have a stronger football brand late in the decade than they do now?

Would an affiliation with the Pac-12 lead to improved recruiting, higher community interest, greater resources and more competitive success, to the point that the Mustangs gain traction in the massive Dallas market?

(Don’t be misled by the Big 12’s lack of interest in SMU during its 2021 expansion phase. That was rooted in resistance on the part of Baylor and TCU, in particular.)

And to be clear: We don’t know whether a few years in the Pac-12 would elevate SMU to a level that’s not currently visible, just like we don’t know if Prime Video will become a mainstream viewing platform (for sports) by the midpoint of the next media contract cycle.

But that’s the calculation to consider for both issues.


It makes zero sense to me that ESPN is more interested in the Big 12, fronted by Oklahoma State, Baylor and BYU, than the Pac-12 with Washington, Oregon and Utah. Make it make sense. — @kmasterman

I have no reason to believe ESPN is materially more interested in the Big 12, but because the conferences deployed different negotiating strategies, conclusions are difficult to draw.

ESPN was willing to renew its existing agreement with the Big 12 at a below-market valuation that worked for ESPN.

The network very well might have done the same with the Pac-12. But instead of renewing its deal, the Pac-12 opted to take its inventory to the open market and explore new partners.

The reality is that each conference will occupy second-tier status with ESPN, which will be all-in with the SEC starting in 2024 — to the point that we will see SEC doubleheaders on ABC and ESPN in the prime viewing hours, with 30 minutes carved out for home videos of the Smart family reunion.


Is the Disney corporate restructuring announced yesterday possibly related to a Pac-12 media deal delay? — @GoCougs7

I cannot state definitively either way. But my sense is the corporate-level event in November, with disappointing earnings and Bob Iger’s return as chief executive, played a role in the trajectory of negotiations.

So, perhaps, did the layoffs announced by Amazon in late 2022.

And if true, that’s hardly surprising. Economic factors can impact media negotiations and are one of many risk factors that underscore the need for urgency in the process.

But that’s only a hunch, and I don’t expect to ever have full clarity on that piece of the puzzle.


What are the chances the Pac-12 adds any teams in 2024, as of today? Everyone keeps talking about San Diego State and SMU, but I don’t see this group of presidents adding those schools without a compelling financial case from commissioner George Kliavkoff. — @BearFlagFan

Are you confident votes are there for SDSU and SMU? — @Sporttakes3

Any membership requests would require a three-fourths vote of the existing schools; at least eight presidents would have to approve.

(Fortunately, the Hotline has recent experience in counting votes, having tracked the UC regents’ months-long deliberations on UCLA.)

Although Pac-12 presidents have a history of misguided decisions, we’re confident that the Aztecs and Mustangs would have the votes if the schools stick together and determine expansion is the proper course.

From the outset of this saga, the Hotline has believed new members were needed — partly as a defensive play (keeping the Big 12 out of San Diego), partly as a means of growing the footprint (the Dallas media and recruiting markets) and mostly because of the need for game inventory.

As a 10-team conference, the Pac-12 would have approximately 65 home football games available to its media partners each season (assuming two non-conference home dates per team).

As a 12-team league, it would have approximately 78.

That’s a significant difference when each game carries a multi-million-dollar price tag.


When do you think official invites will be sent out if the Pac-12 expands? I am assuming the presidents will meet and vote on this first. — @lilcmac5

By the middle of March, we should have a sense for whether the schools will sign a media rights deal and whether the conference will expand.

And it could unfold more rapidly.

If the media rights piece drags deep into the spring, trouble could follow. Big trouble.

At some point, the schools could lose faith in Kliavkoff’s ability to meet the moment.


Would Tulane, Rice or other Central Time Zone schools be considered by the Pac-12 if the conference goes to 14 teams? Will it go to 14? — @PjKiernan_

I am deeply skeptical about a 14-team league, but there’s no reason we can’t venture down Hypothetical Lane …

The primary reason to grow beyond 12 is inventory: More schools mean more games, which create more programming which could, potentially, lead to a better media contract, but only if Amazon and ESPN are pushing for quantity to satisfy their streaming needs.

And in that situation, yes, Rice and Tulane would make the most sense because 1) they provide access to new markets, 2) they (easily) clear the bar academically, and 3) they would create more Central Time kickoffs.

But in the real world, the Pac-14 is extremely unlikely.


Your best guess for conference affiliation for the following schools in 2024, and 2030: Washington, Arizona State and Washington State. — @DawgsWhy

The Hotline published our vision for the future of the Pac-12, and college football at large, in September. And despite all the events over the past five months, the outlook remains generally the same:

The Washington schools likely will remain in the Pac-12 through the decade — granted, nothing is guaranteed until contracts are signed — but tumult is coming to the sport in the early 2030s, when the Big Ten’s next media cycle begins.

RELATED ARTICLES

Will the Big Ten create a western division with Oregon, Washington and the Bay Area schools joining USC and UCLA?

Will the SEC respond?

Will the ACC fracture?

Our best guess is that college football will have three conferences by the mid-2030s: The Big Ten and SEC, each with 20 or 24 members, and a fully revamped Big 12 that spans the country and incorporates most, if not all of the remaining Power Five schools.


Do USC and UCLA get an expansion vote as part of the 75 percent requirement to add a school? — @ML84Pro

They do not, as we outlined Thursday in a report on the state of Pac-12 expansion.

Only the 10 remaining schools will vote on membership — and on any matters pertaining to the future of the conference.

USC and UCLA participate in discussions about, and cast votes on, issues that impact conference operations until the summer of 2024.

(They voted on the 2023 football schedule, for example. And if Comcast withholds any cash as a result of the $50 million overpayment saga, the L.A. schools will take the same revenue hit as everyone else.)

But all the long-haul, meaty matters will be addressed only by the 10 continuing members.


You’re good at what you do. Any chance you shift to a Big 12 sports focus? — @vakaviti

Appreciate the kind words.

The Hotline’s syndication partners include Salt Lake City-based KSL.com, and we’re thrilled with the relationship.

Our content strategy for the 2023 season and beyond hasn’t been formulated, but the mission will remain the same:

We cover the schools (and the issues that matter to them), wherever they are.

 

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This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

3)SEC can not eliminate the FCS teams. Can still play lower level FBS but bc of the 8 game conf schedule they can ALL schedule 1-2 bigger non conference games. 

4)Main rivalries are kept and you play every team every other year. Example: Texas plays Ou every year. Texas plays Aggie @ College Station in 2024, in Austin 2026, in CS 2028, in Austin 2030. Texas plays Arky in Austin 2025, Fayetteville 2027, Austin 2029, Fayetville 2031. 

SEC2024.png

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On 2/10/2023 at 1:03 AM, billfromlaketravis said:

We signed a really shitty contract in exchange a really shitty bribe from ESPN, the LHN. We were always going to pay to get out early. 

I believe that ESPN will owe us for the contractual years of the LHN, until 2031.  Someone correct me if that is wrong, but I am pretty damn sure I read this when our league change was first announced.

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On 2/9/2023 at 7:56 PM, DCLonghorn said:

I will miss the Big 12. I will miss the Big 8 teams. BYU will be the team to beat in the Big 12. Thanks to all those non-Longhorns who have been in this chat for YEARS and taken illogical Longhorn hubris and assholery.

Here's hoping we do better in the SEC/NFL B League than we did in the Big 12... 3 out of 27!!!

Maybe James Brown can be QB1 for the 2024 season.

Since we're too fucking smug collectively, I certainly won't start the chant... But I'm damn excited/scared for the SEC!!!! 

I only neg trolls.  This has to be a fucking troll.

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5 minutes ago, cochamps said:

What a pussy.  I remember weiners like you freaking out about playing big, bad Nebraska.  Get a grip.

What the fuck are you talking about, did you read what I was responding too. Your response is so far off the context of what this response was in regard too.

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1 hour ago, TheContractor said:

This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

3)SEC can not eliminate the FCS teams. Can still play lower level FBS but bc of the 8 game conf schedule they can ALL schedule 1-2 bigger non conference games. 

4)Main rivalries are kept and you play every team every other year. Example: Texas plays Ou every year. Texas plays Aggie @ College Station in 2024, in Austin 2026, in CS 2028, in Austin 2030. Texas plays Arky in Austin 2025, Fayetteville 2027, Austin 2029, Fayetville 2031. 

SEC2024.png

Spoiler alert: We’re playing aggy every year. 

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17 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

What the fuck are you talking about, did you read what I was responding too. Your response is so far off the context of what this response was in regard too.

I am not sure what the fuck your reply is supposed to mean then.  Which is maybe not that surprising...

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2 hours ago, TheContractor said:

This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

3)SEC can not eliminate the FCS teams. Can still play lower level FBS but bc of the 8 game conf schedule they can ALL schedule 1-2 bigger non conference games. 

4)Main rivalries are kept and you play every team every other year. Example: Texas plays Ou every year. Texas plays Aggie @ College Station in 2024, in Austin 2026, in CS 2028, in Austin 2030. Texas plays Arky in Austin 2025, Fayetteville 2027, Austin 2029, Fayetville 2031. 

SEC2024.png

Respectfully, this is fucking awful

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3 hours ago, TheContractor said:

This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

SEC2024.png

3+6 will bring in a helluva lot mo' money for the SEC

Expect it to happen

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3 hours ago, TheContractor said:

disrespectfully, its the best option if you consider fairness, not $. I understand 3+6 is the odds on favorite but if you consider a competitive balance then 1+7 is the best. Networks $ ,probably will feel different 

Well if you don't consider what fans want, then its ok.  Disrespectfully, you are a mathematical idiot if you think any scheduling is fair when you are in one division and miss 6 out of the other 15 schools.

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On 2/9/2023 at 10:33 AM, Al_4_ISU said:

The only thing I see missing with Houston is fan engagement.  They definitely have everything else in their favor.

If they are doing exceptionally well, they get fan support, but if they are not in competition for a conference title, it's back to COVID crowds in Houston.   The first year or two, the fans will show up for home games, but if you see any UH fans when you host them, they are fakes, likely Hawkeye fans in disguise, looking to take a duce in unlocked cars. 

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16 hours ago, TheContractor said:

This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

3)SEC can not eliminate the FCS teams. Can still play lower level FBS but bc of the 8 game conf schedule they can ALL schedule 1-2 bigger non conference games. 

4)Main rivalries are kept and you play every team every other year. Example: Texas plays Ou every year. Texas plays Aggie @ College Station in 2024, in Austin 2026, in CS 2028, in Austin 2030. Texas plays Arky in Austin 2025, Fayetteville 2027, Austin 2029, Fayetville 2031. 

SEC2024.png

If I'm reading this right,  Texas and OU would play Bama every year?

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42 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

If I'm reading this right,  Texas and OU would play Bama every year?

No in the 1+7 format, Texas only plays Ou every year. the 14 other Sec teams are split 7 in even years/the other 7 teams in odd years. column 7 for both Texas and Ou should have read Auburn/Bama

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1 hour ago, Gaffords said:

If they are doing exceptionally well, they get fan support, but if they are not in competition for a conference title, it's back to COVID crowds in Houston.   The first year or two, the fans will show up for home games, but if you see any UH fans when you host them, they are fakes, likely Hawkeye fans in disguise, looking to take a duce in unlocked cars. 

Thank you for speaking my language 

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The SEC ending a bunch of big annual rivalries to do a 1+7 format would be dumb.  

Bama should play Auburn and Tennessee every year.  
Auburn should always play Bama and Georgia. 
Etc.

There's no way to make the "+7" rotation fair and balanced, anyway.  It's going to vary depending on who is good in any given year.  3+6 gives the fans the games they want and it makes the most money.  

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On 2/11/2023 at 10:59 AM, DFW Horn said:

Didn't FCB say we were a lock for the Pac back in, what, 2011?

I'm not sure if that move would've ever taken place or not, but the PAC didn't do themselves any favors by rushing to invite Colorado so there wouldn't be room for Baylor because there would be no polluting of the PAC 10 with a Christian school. Then a couple of days ago, I was listening to some PAC 12 mouth, they are fine with SMU joining, but really wish they could shake Baylor and TCU free... 

Oh how the arrogant have fallen...  From having their finger on the trigger in position to effectively kill off the Big 12, but there would never be a Christian school in the sacred PAC 10, so the the power division of the Big 12 could either like it or fuck off. To having a Methodist school as one of the two "must have's", but wishing they could get Baptist Baylor and Texas Christian.  

The PAC have been fucking a duck the entire decade this round of realignment has been going on.  Their.  They have fucked themselves continually at only aggy could compete with.  

Whiffed on the entire Big 12 south... Which would've put the PAC shoulder to should with the other two.

Whiffed again on OU, and in the process, likely killed any chance of OU 2ver looking west again when they made a public spectacle of telling OU to fuck off...  As smart as they believed themselves to be, not understand that OU was offering them UT giftwrapped.  It wouldn't have taken long for us to have followed. We damn sure wouldn't have went east at that time, too much bad blood with the gimp little brother...

Then to prioritize getting the PAC into Asia over securing exposure in your home country, like where your recruits are going to be coming from, not to mention the viewers who actually know what an Oregon duck is. Or to be up to their nostrils in quicksand, but each time someone would consider throwing them a lifeline, to carry on as if they were the ones in the position of power and if they were lucky enough to allow them to carry the PAC games, they should be forever grateful, because obviously the PAC wasn't letting just anyone to carry their games..  

 

But when the last AT&T lifeboat was about to push off from the Titanic, offered to make room for them, to insist not only on sitting at the front, but to have the entire bench to yourself?  That's as aggy as it gets. Legends in their own minds...

The punchline to the PAC joke was when they finally got the great visionary, Larry Scott  out of there, it seems they replaced him with Larry Scott 2.0.  I might be wrong, but from the outside, he seems to be every bit as arrogant and will say anything in the moment, without considering that within 24 hours, everyone will know he's full of shit and will make up shit just to look good in the moment without thinking about how it is going to make him/them look by morning. And that's aggy to the core.

Fuck the Pac right along with OU. 

 

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1 hour ago, Gaffords said:

I'm not sure if that move would've ever taken place or not, but the PAC didn't do themselves any favors by rushing to invite Colorado so there wouldn't be room for Baylor because there would be no polluting of the PAC 10 with a Christian school. Then a couple of days ago, I was listening to some PAC 12 mouth, they are fine with SMU joining, but really wish they could shake Baylor and TCU free... 

Oh how the arrogant have fallen...  From having their finger on the trigger in position to effectively kill off the Big 12, but there would never be a Christian school in the sacred PAC 10, so the the power division of the Big 12 could either like it or fuck off. To having a Methodist school as one of the two "must have's", but wishing they could get Baptist Baylor and Texas Christian.  

The PAC have been fucking a duck the entire decade this round of realignment has been going on.  Their.  They have fucked themselves continually at only aggy could compete with.  

Whiffed on the entire Big 12 south... Which would've put the PAC shoulder to should with the other two.

Whiffed again on OU, and in the process, likely killed any chance of OU 2ver looking west again when they made a public spectacle of telling OU to fuck off...  As smart as they believed themselves to be, not understand that OU was offering them UT giftwrapped.  It wouldn't have taken long for us to have followed. We damn sure wouldn't have went east at that time, too much bad blood with the gimp little brother...

Then to prioritize getting the PAC into Asia over securing exposure in your home country, like where your recruits are going to be coming from, not to mention the viewers who actually know what an Oregon duck is. Or to be up to their nostrils in quicksand, but each time someone would consider throwing them a lifeline, to carry on as if they were the ones in the position of power and if they were lucky enough to allow them to carry the PAC games, they should be forever grateful, because obviously the PAC wasn't letting just anyone to carry their games..  

 

But when the last AT&T lifeboat was about to push off from the Titanic, offered to make room for them, to insist not only on sitting at the front, but to have the entire bench to yourself?  That's as aggy as it gets. Legends in their own minds...

The punchline to the PAC joke was when they finally got the great visionary, Larry Scott  out of there, it seems they replaced him with Larry Scott 2.0.  I might be wrong, but from the outside, he seems to be every bit as arrogant and will say anything in the moment, without considering that within 24 hours, everyone will know he's full of shit and will make up shit just to look good in the moment without thinking about how it is going to make him/them look by morning. And that's aggy to the core.

Fuck the Pac right along with OU. 

 

I kind of liked the PAC, but you’ve kind of nailed it. 

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4 minutes ago, cochamps said:

Seem like mediocre adds but after the LA departures, that will be the norm.  Washington and Oregon and a PAC of spares,  jmo,

Pretty much. I think SDSU can be a nice piece…eventually. 
 

I’m happy that all bigger Texas programs will have regular, clear access to the CFP. It’ll prevent a lot of bitching in the legislature. Win your games and you’re in. 

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On 2/11/2023 at 4:15 PM, TheContractor said:

This is how it should be: 1+7. the 3+6 way is not the best option. 

1) 1+7 is the most fair way. 3 permanent opponents is a big imbalance for some teams. Ex: Tennessee will get Vandy, South Carolina, Bama. While someone like Auburn will get Bama, UGA and South Carolina. Ou gets Texas, Florida, Mizzou while Arkansas gets Texas, Kentucky and Mizzou. The path for 1 teams is clearly different than the other. 

2)1+7 keeps the SEC at 8 game schedule which they have used for 25+ years to have an advantage over other conferences. 

3)SEC can not eliminate the FCS teams. Can still play lower level FBS but bc of the 8 game conf schedule they can ALL schedule 1-2 bigger non conference games. 

4)Main rivalries are kept and you play every team every other year. Example: Texas plays Ou every year. Texas plays Aggie @ College Station in 2024, in Austin 2026, in CS 2028, in Austin 2030. Texas plays Arky in Austin 2025, Fayetteville 2027, Austin 2029, Fayetville 2031. 

SEC2024.png

Am I reading this wrong?  Looks like Texas and OU would play Bama every year but doesn’t show that on Bama’s schedule.

Edit looks like last column should be Bama/Auburn.

Edited by Beer Drinker
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On 2/9/2023 at 8:12 PM, 936horn said:

Miss the Big 12? all the second rate schools and programs that thought they were even in the same hemisphere as us the last 30-odd years. 

We haven't won a Big 12 title in over a decade. 2009 and 2005 mind as well be last fucking century at this point.

Are you seriously throwing academics in the same conversation as football? I'm guessing 40% of the guys that step on most campuses won't graduate with a degree and the ones that do are probably communication or leisure studies majors.

We aren't paying millions for coaches, facilities and players to win a spelling bee and we certainly aren't going to the sec for its academic prestige.

 

 

 

 

Edited by redswingline
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2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Pretty much. I think SDSU can be a nice piece…eventually. 
 

I’m happy that all bigger Texas programs will have regular, clear access to the CFP. It’ll prevent a lot of bitching in the legislature. Win your games and you’re in. 

I can't feel good about the Dickerjames school getting back in the big time.  Much prefer Rice to get that slot.  SMU is the one who deserved to get permanently relegated.

The only good thing they ever did after Doak Walker and Jerry LeVias, was letting Dickerson keep the Gold Trans Am aggy gave him.

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48 minutes ago, PencilPusher said:

If so, think the school should rename/rebrand itself to its more well known moniker “Southern Money University”. 
 

“Here come the Money Mustangs!”

They could always go the aggy route and state definitively that the "M" no longer stands for anything. Because turdition

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