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Realignment talk not going away


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10 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Yeah, take the AZ schools, CU, and Wazzu.  Let Utah rot.

 

1 minute ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Utah's self worth might be over-inflated, but they are still twice as valuable as CU. 

I think Colorado is the key. They've sucked for a while, but with Sanders coming in as coach, they're getting eyeballs again. He does anything on the field, and with their recent history, improving on that is a low bar, and Colorado is featured on Sportscenter every weekend. 

Beyond that, though, Arizona and Arizona State have to move as a pair. That's twice as many moving parts. Utah is reticent, for some reason. Washington State is less of a target, but would probably jump in a minute. Colorado already has a B12 history, and they've already shown they'll jump conferences. 

When the first school tumbles, the B12 can pick from several schools. Even Oregon and Washington might look, if the B12 doesn't require them to sign a grant of rights, and gives them an out if the B1G calls. 

Stanford and Cal will probably never be options. They'd rather take the Rice or Ivy League route than be part of what they consider a group of substandard colleges. 

There's some of that at UT. When I was a student in the 70s, when the Houston Cougars beat Texas 30-0, a lot of the faculty I knew (Art Department) were giggling about the loss, and saying Texas should quit worrying about football so much. The Art faculty was pissed at athletics, cause they had the BMD receptions before the games at the old Huntington (I think it was Huntington) gallery in the art building, and sometimes the BMDs would hang their coats on the sculptures. They also considered all the athletes knuckle draggers. 

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2 hours ago, Crockett said:

Utah's whole identity is the P12 and that they have been a "peer" of Stanford, Cal, UCLA, UW, etc. When they got into the P12 you saw P12 stickers on cars all over the place. Driving from Utah County (where Provo is located) north to the neighboring Salt Lake County with Salt Lake City in it, there was a billboard placed just inside the county line stating "Welcome to P12 country". 

This is a very confusing and scary time for Utah, so be patient with them as they process the stages of grief. 

 

Hmm.. Where have we seen this before?

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3 hours ago, LTbear said:

I've been surprised how uppity Utah fans have seemed online. I'm not saying they have no chance at the B1G, but I'd wager they are, at minimum, about 4th or 5th on the B1G's wishlist (including ND and the PAC schools), and maybe as low as 7th (not even counting potential ACC targets). 

Utah is ahead of WSU and OSU on the Big 10's list, nobody else.

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17 minutes ago, Richard Kimball said:

There's some of that at UT. When I was a student in the 70s, when the Houston Cougars beat Texas 30-0, a lot of the faculty I knew (Art Department) were giggling about the loss, and saying Texas should quit worrying about football so much. The Art faculty was pissed at athletics, cause they had the BMD receptions before the games at the old Huntington (I think it was Huntington) gallery in the art building, and sometimes the BMDs would hang their coats on the sculptures. They also considered all the athletes knuckle draggers. 

Art Department? Lol...

Pseudo-intellectuals vs knuckle-draggers.

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21 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Utah to me is one of the must haves for the Big 12 in this because it will provide a legit rivalry that is going to be an instant checkbox for the late night slot every year. Utes vs windowcoug will be something you can schedule mid season and it becomes an instant “yeah it’s late and I’ve probably had a few too many, but is there still a good game on” big ratings draw.

One of the things that drives viewership is going to be is this worth staying up for, and frankly watching teams that loath each other and all of the angst, both on and off the field, helps drive it.

 

In many ways one of the problems with the current Big 12 post Tex/OU is that there isn’t enough hate/rivalry that comes through on the screen. The Utes/WindowCoug and Ariz/ASU add two more of those to the conference. It isn’t the level of the iconic rivalries that the SEC and B1G looks to have a monopoly on for the most part, but there will be enough to justify a late night slot and an OK audience.

 

21 hours ago, Uncle Nate said:

Why midseason rather than end of sesason?

Otherwise, I agree with you wholeheartedly.  This is why I hope Tech-OSU is ensured an every year game...and why I am so upset we aren't playing them in 2023.  It's a natural rivalry.  OSU has stolen nearly all of their traditions from Tech, and we like to point that fact out to them.  :)

Big 12 made a huge mistake not having those two teams play in 2023.

The Big 12's draw will be parity, that most games should be competitive, and rivalries will develop, even if temporarily. I remember the Gundy-Leach matchups had a rivalry feel for a few years there with both teams regularly scoring in the 50's and the win coming down to who could finally make a stop late in the game. I could see that returning, especially since Tech fans have a chip on their shoulder thinking they invented horses, flags, people riding on horses, with flags, the hanging curveball, high fibre, good Scotch, all of which we took from them. Bring it on fake zorros.

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I should add that a Tech-OSU "rivalry" should develop naturally. I think we all were turned off when they tried to force us into a rivalry game at the Texas State Fair a week after OU/TX. Like we were just dying to be referred to as the "Little Brother Bowl." I've mentioned this before and very few people seem to remember. Maybe it wasn't serious, but I know it took up a lot of bandwith on the OSU boards about 15 years ago.

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Just now, 'stache said:

 

The Big 12's draw will be parity, that most games should be competitive, and rivalries will develop, even if temporarily. I remember the Gundy-Leach matchups had a rivalry feel for a few years there with both teams regularly scoring in the 50's and the win coming down to who could finally make a stop late in the game. I could see that returning, especially since Tech fans have a chip on their shoulder thinking they invented horses, flags, people riding on horses, with flags, the hanging curveball, high fibre, good Scotch, all of which we took from them. Bring it on fake zorros.

This is the way.

The Guns Up is ours, btw.  There's a reason we call you all Xerox U.  :)

 

 

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

...since Tech fans have a chip on their shoulder thinking they invented horses, flags, people riding on horses, with flags, the hanging curveball, high fibre, good Scotch, all of which we took from them. Bring it on fake zorros.

Warner Bros. would like to have a word, Tech.

 

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4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Bold move by that AD.  Him and their commish flapping out there in the wind.  Maybe it works out but I sure as fuck wouldn’t be flapping my gums if I was in their shoes.  

One thing is for certain. There will be a group of schools left with their dicks in their hands claiming moral and intellectual superiority as the business of college athletics sails away into the sunset. 

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3 hours ago, Crockett said:

Utah's whole identity is the P12 and that they have been a "peer" of Stanford, Cal, UCLA, UW, etc. When they got into the P12 you saw P12 stickers on cars all over the place. Driving from Utah County (where Provo is located) north to the neighboring Salt Lake County with Salt Lake City in it, there was a billboard placed just inside the county line stating "Welcome to P12 country". 

This is a very confusing and scary time for Utah, so be patient with them as they process the stages of grief. 

It's like getting invited to the cool kids party and the cops come bust it up 20 minutes after you get there.

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2 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

It depends on how you define "cupcake". I should've clarified - FCS teams or lower.

As you know, UT doesn't schedule FCS opponents. aggy will schedule at least 2, when possible. The fact that SEC teams scheduled that shit (the week before their rivals in November) gamed the system.

and I think they'll continue to do it until they're forced not to. I think it's more likely that the meh G5 schools get dropped than the SHSU & Citadels of the world get dropped. 1 decent P5 & 2 FCS cupcakes OOC along with 9 SEC games is what most of the schools will do. I'm sure our OOC will continue to be mixtures of Rice, UTEP, UTSA, & other easy victories, even if they aren't FCS class opponents. I do wonder if ESPN won't stipulate in the new contract that there has to be "X" number of SEC conference games or P5 matchups per week to keep from having everyone schedule that kind of game at the same time in order to keep the inventory of games top-notch. I would imagine they would want at least 4 matchups to choose from any given week to make sure they have at least 1 game worthy of primetime.

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42 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Bold move by that AD.  Him and their commish flapping out there in the wind.  Maybe it works out but I sure as fuck wouldn’t be flapping my gums if I was in their shoes.  

Yeah, you would think an AD of a P5 school would know when to keep his mouth shut.

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5 minutes ago, hook me said:

I do wonder if ESPN won't stipulate in the new contract that there has to be "X" number of SEC conference games or P5 matchups per week to keep from having everyone schedule that kind of game at the same time in order to keep the inventory of games top-notch. I would imagine they would want at least 4 matchups to choose from any given week to make sure they have at least 1 game worthy of primetime.

This

Yes, I believe ESPN, FOX, and the other media companies will limit the cupcake games moving forward. They don't want to pay for that crap.

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13 minutes ago, hook me said:

and I think they'll continue to do it until they're forced not to. I think it's more likely that the meh G5 schools get dropped than the SHSU & Citadels of the world get dropped. 1 decent P5 & 2 FCS cupcakes OOC along with 9 SEC games is what most of the schools will do. I'm sure our OOC will continue to be mixtures of Rice, UTEP, UTSA, & other easy victories, even if they aren't FCS class opponents. I do wonder if ESPN won't stipulate in the new contract that there has to be "X" number of SEC conference games or P5 matchups per week to keep from having everyone schedule that kind of game at the same time in order to keep the inventory of games top-notch. I would imagine they would want at least 4 matchups to choose from any given week to make sure they have at least 1 game worthy of primetime.

 

7 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

This

Yes, I believe ESPN, FOX, and the other media companies will limit the cupcake games moving forward. They don't want to pay for that crap.

Allegedly, the SEC is under serious pressure to stop with the FCS bullshit from the tv partners. Those games are absolute losers for tv 100% of the time. It's an inventory drain across the board. The move to a 12 team playoff decompresses the concern around making the playoffs. 

I have to imagine that a big part of the ACC's problem is their "follow the leader" strategy of only scheduling 8 conference games and having every team schedule at least one FCS opponent, just as the SEC does. Not only is that incredibly weak inventory, but they're also screwing themselves out of more meaningful inventory. If they were ever to somehow renegotiate that albatross of a contract, both of these issues would have to be part of the remedy.

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Utah uses the Big 12 program blueprint to beat the shit out of PAC 12 programs that don’t give a shit with only UO, UW and USC being programs they need to actively try to knock off. They are a high floor low ceiling program just like all the programs in the Big 12, they are afraid of  having a week in week our dog fight against teams like, OSU, TCU, Baylor, K state, UC, UCF etc instead of having 5 free wins from dead beat Pac 12 programs like Cal, Stanford, UCLA, Colorado, Arizona etc.

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24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Allegedly, the SEC is under serious pressure to stop with the FCS bullshit from the tv partners. Those games are absolute losers for tv 100% of the time. It's an inventory drain across the board. The move to a 12 team playoff decompresses the concern around making the playoffs. 

I have to imagine that a big part of the ACC's problem is their "follow the leader" strategy of only scheduling 8 conference games and having every team schedule at least one FCS opponent, just as the SEC does. Not only is that incredibly weak inventory, but they're also screwing themselves out of more meaningful inventory. If they were ever to somehow renegotiate that albatross of a contract, both of these issues would have to be part of the remedy.

I'd say that the ACC's problem is mostly that they were stupid enough to lock in a tv contract for 20 years.

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19 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I'd say that the ACC's problem is mostly that they were stupid enough to lock in a tv contract for 20 years.

I always thought it was a GOR til 2036 but that the media contract was shorter or could be renegotiated as networks started paying more. How is it that 14 institutions didn't see the exponential growth in media contracts? Makes no sense to me that they would agree to that with everything else going on in realignment.

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4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I always thought it was a GOR til 2036 but that the media contract was shorter or could be renegotiated as networks started paying more. How is it that 14 institutions didn't see the exponential growth in media contracts? Makes no sense to me that they would agree to that with everything else going on in realignment.

They got a lot more money and a network that they thought would pay out more in exchange for locking it in for so long. The deal would have been much lower if they had signed a shorter agreement. 

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3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

 

Allegedly, the SEC is under serious pressure to stop with the FCS bullshit from the tv partners. Those games are absolute losers for tv 100% of the time. It's an inventory drain across the board. The move to a 12 team playoff decompresses the concern around making the playoffs. 

I have to imagine that a big part of the ACC's problem is their "follow the leader" strategy of only scheduling 8 conference games and having every team schedule at least one FCS opponent, just as the SEC does. Not only is that incredibly weak inventory, but they're also screwing themselves out of more meaningful inventory. If they were ever to somehow renegotiate that albatross of a contract, both of these issues would have to be part of the remedy.

aggy not gonna like that. I feel for them. They had some really nice built-in excuses to play Prairie View regularly. TAMU System school, HBCU, and it's a local school. 

I think we're looking at a future schedule of UTSA/UTEP, Rice/Louisiana directional school, and the top half of the ACC (ESPN tie-in). 

OU is pretty fortunate that Tulsa is a private school. Nobody gives a shit about them. 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

aggy not gonna like that. I feel for them. They had some really nice built-in excuses to play Prairie View regularly. TAMU System school, HBCU, and it's a local school. 

I think we're looking at a future schedule of UTSA/UTEP, Rice/Louisiana directional school, and the top half of the ACC (ESPN tie-in). 

OU is pretty fortunate that Tulsa is a private school. Nobody gives a shit about them. 

 

 

Likewise, we have SWT on a 2026 future schedule for the first time in Forever Ago..... 1930.

We've played Southwestern (Southwestern dropped football and then brought it back recently) more recently (in 1945) than SWT.

I expect we'll see Rice, SFA, and Sam appear again on more future-schedules. We've played Sam & Rice recently.

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8 minutes ago, BachelorTrek said:

Likewise, we have SWT on a 2026 future schedule for the first time in Forever Ago..... 1930.

We've played Southwestern (Southwestern dropped football and then brought it back recently) more recently (in 1945) than SWT.

I expect we'll see Rice, SFA, and Sam appear again on more future-schedules. We've played Sam & Rice recently.

SFA is a system school now, but still FCS. I'd imagine they plan on going up a division soon. 

Yeah, I have no problem throwing Texas State a game. 

I kind of hope ESPN talks the UT Triumvirate out of the Ohio State series. I'd much rather play Clemson or FSU. 

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21 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

 

Screenshot_20230309_190254_Chrome.jpg

I was drunk when I placed my best CFB bet last year, put down $100 on a 4 leg parlay of late Pac 12 and MWC games.

5 hours ago, 'stache said:

What is supposedly so great about Utah? Some football success and AAU? They were MWC just ten years ago. They are firmly in the Big 12 status of program, successful and somewhere below the bluebloods programs. The Big 10 isn’t looking for that, it’s Big 12 or PAC/MWC. They can’t realistically think the Big 10 is calling so are they holding our for a possible ACC merger?

I don't think Utah is a lock for the B1G but they have a chance if the conference goes to 22-24 teams and I wouldn't be opposed to them joining at that point.  First and foremost they're the AAU flagship school of one of the fastest growing states in the country.  Utah already produces a decent amount of football talent, give it another 10-20 years and their population growth will result in even more of it.  Considering the SEC has Florida, Georgia and Texas in their footprint I think it's important the B1G takes recruiting potential into account when expanding if they want to win more championships.  Obviously Utah isn't on the FL/GA/TX level when it comes to recruiting but every little bit helps.  They have a passionate fanbase, they support football and the last few years have elevated the national profile of their football team.

The biggest potential pitfall is what will happen after the Kyle Whittingham era.  They've been fortunate to keep him as long as they have, but he's 63 so he'll probably retire in the next 5ish years.  If they fuck up his replacement hire that could crater their program at the worst possible time and make them a much less attractive option.

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52 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

aggy not gonna like that. I feel for them. They had some really nice built-in excuses to play Prairie View regularly. TAMU System school, HBCU, and it's a local school. 

I think we're looking at a future schedule of UTSA/UTEP, Rice/Louisiana directional school, and the top half of the ACC (ESPN tie-in). 

OU is pretty fortunate that Tulsa is a private school. Nobody gives a shit about them. 

 

 

All fun and games until Prairie View sticks a loss on Jimbo.

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Utah plays in a stadium the same size as the one in Manhattan, KS and they were in the MWC a little more than a decade ago.  They don't have the biggest fanbase in their own state.  Utah doesn't have a deep HS recruiting base.  They're a couple of bad football hires away from being indistinguishable from Oregon State or Washington St.  If their AD is popping off publicly, then it's probably being done with the blessing of their president and BOR.

If they end up eventually wanting an invite, I'd have serious reservations about it on the Big 12 side.  You don't want to recruit your own problems and welcome a malcontent into your room, when you've found stability for the first time in more than a decade. 

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Utah's whole identity is the P12 and that they have been a "peer" of Stanford, Cal, UCLA, UW, etc. When they got into the P12 you saw P12 stickers on cars all over the place. Driving from Utah County (where Provo is located) north to the neighboring Salt Lake County with Salt Lake City in it, there was a billboard placed just inside the county line stating "Welcome to P12 country". 
This is a very confusing and scary time for Utah, so be patient with them as they process the stages of grief. 
 

So Utah is the aggy of the Pac12? Got it.
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51 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

Utah plays in a stadium the same size as the one in Manhattan, KS and they were in the MWC a little more than a decade ago.  They don't have the biggest fanbase in their own state.  Utah doesn't have a deep HS recruiting base.  They're a couple of bad football hires away from being indistinguishable from Oregon State or Washington St.  If their AD is popping off publicly, then it's probably being done with the blessing of their president and BOR.

If they end up eventually wanting an invite, I'd have serious reservations about it on the Big 12 side.  You don't want to recruit your own problems and welcome a malcontent into your room, when you've found stability for the first time in more than a decade. 

You have to remember, what else is the AD supposed to say? With the level of vitriol they have with windowcoug they are much better off as an AD discounting the move than any of their other options. Then, they can say that university made a longterm decision and let’s now band together in the AD to crush those religious fanatics down the road in conference.

 

They can’t ignore it, they can’t embrace it. If they discount it and the Pac12 survives they look like they held fast. If it does blow up, who remembers outside of a few hardcore fans that laugh that the AD got overridden/ didn’t listen to by the President and BOR

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1 hour ago, billfromlaketravis said:

SFA is a system school now, but still FCS. I'd imagine they plan on going up a division soon. 

Yeah, I have no problem throwing Texas State a game. 

I kind of hope ESPN talks the UT Triumvirate out of the Ohio State series. I'd much rather play Clemson or FSU. 

I don't think they can since that inventory was key to the fox negotiations. We even had to flip to a road game with Michigan.

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Da Utes are riding a couple of successful years with little serious competition in the conference. They are basically a poor man’s Oregon. A good friend is an alum and even he admits the fan base only started paying attention recently. When Whittingham retires, that will be the test to see if they can backup the gum flapping.

If they had half a brain, they would jump on the Big12’s offer before the phone stopped ringing. The same with ASU, OSU & Wazzu. As rapidly as the PAC is disintegrating, there are going to be several schools out in the cold, since there is no leverage. The one advantage ASU has is that the state of Arizona will force UA to take little brother with them (see what happened when the PAC expanded). Wazzu and OSU bring nothing to the table. Oregon & Washington are the only value-added schools, and they will have to agree to a lesser payout. Cal & Stanford, who the hell knows what they are thinking.

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https://kslsports.com/499432/opinion-making-sense-of-the-latest-pac-12-media-rights-rumors/
 

Quote

So where is the hold up? I’ve been told the Pac-12 is currently negotiating with both Amazon and Apple TV on the streaming end and because it’s new territory the process takes longer and involves more lawyers than simply negotiating with one of the classic TV powers. There is a general precedent in contracts with classic TV powers such as ESPN, Fox Sports, etc. and the various athletic conferences, there isn’t one with streaming services and that makes drawing up a contract more complex and therefore more time-consuming.

Bullshit

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On 3/9/2023 at 5:56 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

If I'm not mistaken UA/ASU have a pretty significant enrollment of California kids who didn't get into the LA schools or California schools? 

IMO they're in a good geographical location to recruit both stats well so long as they have a good coach.

ASU acceptance rate: 88%  To be admitted to ASU, you will need one of the following:
top 25% in high school graduating class. 3.00 GPA in competency courses (4.00 = "A") ACT: 22 (24 nonresidents) SAT: 1120 (1180 nonresidents)

Suprisingly, UA has an 87% acceptance rate.

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1 hour ago, Laxtonto said:

You have to remember, what else is the AD supposed to say? With the level of vitriol they have with windowcoug they are much better off as an AD discounting the move than any of their other options. Then, they can say that university made a longterm decision and let’s now band together in the AD to crush those religious fanatics down the road in conference.

 

They can’t ignore it, they can’t embrace it. If they discount it and the Pac12 survives they look like they held fast. If it does blow up, who remembers outside of a few hardcore fans that laugh that the AD got overridden/ didn’t listen to by the President and BOR

He's not supposed to say anything.  Why pop off on twitter about a Dennis Dodd article?  Nobody forced him to do that.  And there's no way they're better off as an AD going out of their way to piss off what might be their only viable lifeboat provider when the SS PAC 12 starts sinking in earnest.  The people who will remember that Utah did that are running the Big 12.  

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Funnily enough, Utah's AD, Mark Harlan, was USF's AD in the midst of when the Big East collapsed and they got left behind. Upon the BE's collapse he oversaw their fade into obscurity with bad coaching hires and a total lack of program investment that ultimately got them left behind again when the Big 12 expanded (a few years after he left for Utah), even though EVERYONE knew the Big 12 was looking to expand again.

from the reddit

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7 hours ago, hook me said:

and I think they'll continue to do it until they're forced not to. I think it's more likely that the meh G5 schools get dropped than the SHSU & Citadels of the world get dropped. 1 decent P5 & 2 FCS cupcakes OOC along with 9 SEC games is what most of the schools will do. I'm sure our OOC will continue to be mixtures of Rice, UTEP, UTSA, & other easy victories, even if they aren't FCS class opponents. I do wonder if ESPN won't stipulate in the new contract that there has to be "X" number of SEC conference games or P5 matchups per week to keep from having everyone schedule that kind of game at the same time in order to keep the inventory of games top-notch. I would imagine they would want at least 4 matchups to choose from any given week to make sure they have at least 1 game worthy of primetime.

No one schedules two FCS teams (unless they have to due to last minute cancellations) because only 1 can count towards bowl eligibility.

Yes the SEC TV deal renegotiation in 2025 will be for the additional inventory. The SEC is adding 8 conference games with UT/OU and if they go to 9 conference games that’s an additional 8 games which are replacing trash OOC games and significantly increasing their value. If the SEC bans FCS games and requires each team play a P5 opponent each years that would also increase the value of their deal.

Also the SEC effectively gets to negotiate last so whatever the top deal is they can say they should get more.

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1 hour ago, Gidnik said:

Funnily enough, Utah's AD, Mark Harlan, was USF's AD in the midst of when the Big East collapsed and they got left behind. Upon the BE's collapse he oversaw their fade into obscurity with bad coaching hires and a total lack of program investment that ultimately got them left behind again when the Big 12 expanded (a few years after he left for Utah), even though EVERYONE knew the Big 12 was looking to expand again.

from the reddit

And he's an Arizona alumnus.

He's an AD, which means realignment is above his head. He blindly believes the PAC is invincible because it's all he's ever known. Ignorance without awareness leads to blind arrogance.

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26 minutes ago, Jabberwocky said:

Some sort of Utah Sports coverage site:

 

Most have been saying the Pac's money will be comparable to the Big 12, but their visibility and exposure will suffer with much of the content being streamed. I'm sure ESPN will buy Pac 12 after dark.

How we define "prime time" for CFB? Mid-afternoon time slots? 

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1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

Most have been saying the Pac's money will be comparable to the Big 12, but their visibility and exposure will suffer with much of the content being streamed. I'm sure ESPN will buy Pac 12 after dark.

How we define "prime time" for CFB? Mid-afternoon time slots? 

Mid afternoon and national night games.

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If the money is similar but you're predominantly a streaming service game, you're fucked. 

Also - IF they actually get a deal done, you know it’s going to be relatively short-term because of the Washington/Oregon situation.

So yeah the best case for PAC seems to be getting “similar” money (if not somewhat lower) to the Big 12, but less exposure, and then it’s short-term so you have no stability because you know that Oregon/Wash will leave for the B1G two seconds after they are invited; and now you’re in the MWC money zone for your next deal, which may be basically right around the corner (2-3 years or so).

 

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