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Realignment talk not going away


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On 5/30/2023 at 4:33 PM, CustersDoctor said:

There are several advantages for CU by making the move.

1. Geographic: A. Big complaint by Boulder business owners is that visiting teams from the PAC12 don't bring fans like the BIG12 did. Well duh, geographic isolation has consequences. B. Central time zone games get more viewers. This indisputable fact is why Larry Scott worked so hard on landing CTZ teams back in 2010. C. Playing games in recruiting hot beds matters.

2. Stability: It's ironic that the conference that has lost six members in 12 years is the stable one, but that is where we are.

3. More linear less streaming. Broadcast TV and Cable are still where the eyeballs are. It may be different in 6 years, but as of now the PACX current contract has more streaming than any other conference and if the new TV deal is headed by AppleZon then it will be even more streaming oriented.

4. The PACX deal may come in at below the dollar threshold that CU can live with.

 

This guy claims a lot for not naming sources.

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7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm more upset that our ASU game in Tempe is not only on FS1, but will start at 9:30 pm central. I'm old, that's fucking late, even for a Saturday. 

All Arizona and Arizona State home games in September have to be at night, so get used to it if those two join the Big 12.  Check their schedules and you'll see all their other September home games are also night games.  It would be dangerous for fans to kickoff during the day early in the season.  I remember going to USC's game at ASU in 2005 and it was on October 1st, which meant it didn't get September night kickoff protection.  Fucking TV scheduled it for the middle of the day and it felt like sitting inside an oven.  You could have fried eggs on the bleachers.  The stadium ran out of ice and bottled water around halftime and I saw a few fans that had to be taken away in an ambulance, presumably for heat strokes.  Some of the older folks I went with had to leave early because it was a life or death situation for them.

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3 hours ago, mdmost said:

Wonder how this changes next year. I'd imagine the bookends will increase and the middle will shrink significantly. There's only so many OTA stations. 

These numbers include conference networks, which aren't much different than streaming.  Actually Pac 12 Network is worse than streaming.

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3 hours ago, mdmost said:

Sorry, I was meaning for the Big 12. I think streaming will go up with more ESPN+ games as all tier 3 is already there. The SEC will get more cable games and at least 1-2 ABC spots since the SEC GOTW goes to the 2:30 ABC spot. CBS/NBC/FOX will mostly rotate Big 10 games and if there's a decent ranked Big 12 matchup. Pac 12 probably stays the same since they still have the existing deal. LHN is going to fold into the SEC Network. ACC still has their network. The only one that doesn't is the Big 12. They only have streaming, FS1/FS2, and possibly ESPN2 as options for less exciting matchups.

The Big 10 will shrink as far as streaming since they now have 3 OTA options. Cable will shrink as well outside of CBS Sports Network and FS1/FS2 since ESPN is no longer an option. 

The Big Ten’s deal starts this year so they already lost those ESPN numbers. Other than the SEC’s 230 spot on CBS starting week 3 (they only have partial CBS distribution this year), the Big Ten already has all its OTA options included in that number. It will go up but not significantly.

Big 12 will lose some but they’ll still have that FOX showcase and an ESPN late night spot if they add some P12 teams.

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2 hours ago, 'stache said:

 

I vastly prefer ESPN+ to Peacock. We have the Hulu/Disney+/ESPN+ combo which is a pretty good deal. I can also watch OSU baseball and softball. I'm not signing up for another streaming service for a few games a year and Saved by the Bell reboots. I have no idea though if I'm in the majority or the minority. Today's release has OSU v Central Arkansas and v. South Alabama on ESPN+, and there can really be no seriously complaints, because those are some super shitty matchups. We usually only have one per year. I'm more upset that our ASU game in Tempe is not only on FS1, but will start at 9:30 pm central. I'm old, that's fucking late, even for a Saturday. 

I’m with ya.

Already have the Disney bundle on top of my cable/Internet combo and don’t wish to add another service.

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2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

 I remember going to USC's game at ASU in 2005 and it was on October 1st, which meant it didn't get September night kickoff protection.  Fucking TV scheduled it for the middle of the day and it felt like sitting inside an oven.  You could have fried eggs on the bleachers.  

You can fry an egg out there on the city sidewalk 
You can fry your bacon and and and and 
I understand why lizards live in sunny Arizona 
Why people do and call it home I'll never understand

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2 hours ago, Trojan Man said:

The Cardinals play in a dome with a retractable roof.  Arizona and ASU play outside.  Here is where the Sun Devils play.

 

ASU.jpg

It’s still outdoors but it don’t look like that anymore…

spacer.png

Edited by BluTechsan
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2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Which out of conference game is airing on CBS? The first CBS game of the year is week 3, South Carolina at Georgia. CBS does not broadcast any OOC games week 1 or 2.

https://fbschedules.com/sec-football-schedule/

I'm trying to parse this comment

Quote

SEC is slightly handicapped as non conference home games aren’t eligible for OTA due to their CBS deal.

Are you saying there's something contractual that prevents OTA non-conference home games? Or are you saying just the first 3 weeks?

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19 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

I'm trying to parse this comment

Are you saying there's something contractual that prevents OTA non-conference home games? Or are you saying just the first 3 weeks?

Just the first three, CBS wants the SEC conference match ups and I believe only buys 15 games.

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8 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Just the first three, CBS wants the SEC conference match ups and I believe only buys 15 games.

OK... I mean, I know we've had SEC OOC games on CBS before, including the first three weeks, so I'm not clear on the distinction.

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6 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

OK... I mean, I know we've had SEC OOC games on CBS before, including the first three weeks, so I'm not clear on the distinction.

They get to chose the best 13-15 games, with a rule that each team gets at least one game, and rarely pick an OOC game due to that.   Conference games give them credit for two.    They also rarely pick in the first few weeks until the PGA Championship is over.   When expansion to 14 happened and the SEC asked for more games, they doubled up some in October/November instead.

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9 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

They get to chose the best 13-15 games, with a rule that each team gets at least one game, and rarely pick an OOC game due to that.   Conference games give them credit for two.    They also rarely pick in the first few weeks until the PGA Championship is over.   When expansion to 14 happened and the SEC asked for more games, they doubled up some in October/November instead.

So it's a preference thing, not a contract eligibility requirement, because they have definitely had SEC OOC games as the SEC Game of the Week multiple times in recent seasons.

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1 minute ago, gatormarc said:

So it's a preference thing, not a contract eligibility requirement, because they have definitely had SEC OOC games as the SEC Game of the Week multiple times in recent seasons.

I think the only eligibility is they agreed to expand to 15 games, every team gets a game, and CBS picks first.   I also think the SEC started scheduling some conference games in the first three weeks to provide more availability when they increased the amount of games to keep the per team even.

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1 minute ago, Hurtlocker said:

I think the only eligibility is they agreed to expand to 15 games, every team gets a game, and CBS picks first.   I also think the SEC started scheduling some conference games in the first three weeks to provide more availability when they increased the amount of games to keep the per team even.

OK... I think we're on the same page. There is no "non conference home games aren’t eligible" rule for CBS. That's where my confusion was.

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1 hour ago, gatormarc said:

OK... I think we're on the same page. There is no "non conference home games aren’t eligible" rule for CBS. That's where my confusion was.

Not trying to confuse, and I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the SEC’s CBS deal but historically they don’t typically broadcast non conference games. Maybe you can find a specific example but I think that is likely an exception outside of the norm. I trust @Hurtlocker take, but my point was, simply by looking at the first three weeks of this season, the CBS Tier One deal is handicapping the SEC’s numbers.

I do see last year they broadcasted Penn State at Auburn in week 3, and going back 5 years I’m only seeing Tenn/WVU at Charlotte as the only other OOC game (which was neutral site outside of their TV deal) so there must be the PGA or something blocking them from week 1/2 games otherwise I would assume Texas at Alabama in week 2 would be on CBS.

Either way my point is basically that, while partnered up with CBS, the SEC’s first 3 weeks skew lower, but they should change once fully in ESPN.

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4 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Not trying to confuse, and I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the SEC’s CBS deal but historically they don’t typically broadcast non conference games. Maybe you can find a specific example but I think that is likely an exception outside of the norm. I trust @Hurtlocker take, but my point was, simply by looking at the first three weeks of this season, the CBS Tier One deal is handicapping the SEC’s numbers.

I do see last year they broadcasted Penn State at Auburn in week 3, and going back 5 years I’m only seeing Tenn/WVU at Charlotte as the only other OOC game (which was neutral site outside of their TV deal) so there must be the PGA or something blocking them from week 1/2 games otherwise I would assume Texas at Alabama in week 2 would be on CBS.

Either way my point is basically that, while partnered up with CBS, the SEC’s first 3 weeks skew lower, but they should change once fully in ESPN.

Yeah its definitely an accurate observation.  Its not that there are no games, its just that CBS doesn't dominate it like later in the season.   And CBS has never been a fan of cutting into its tour schedule.   Hell, they work hard to ensure the NCAA tourney empties right into the Masters.   

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6 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I do see last year they broadcasted Penn State at Auburn in week 3, and going back 5 years I’m only seeing Tenn/WVU at Charlotte as the only other OOC game (which was neutral site outside of their TV deal) so there must be the PGA or something blocking them from week 1/2 games otherwise I would assume Texas at Alabama in week 2 would be on CBS.

IIRC, there is a preseason draft where CBS only gets a certain number of protected picks, and then there's a back and forth with ESPN. It looks at the entire season.

Historically, CBS always grabs Florida-Georgia as their first pick. It could just be that ESPN grabbed Texas-Bama before CBS could with their pick.

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2 hours ago, gatormarc said:

IIRC, there is a preseason draft where CBS only gets a certain number of protected picks, and then there's a back and forth with ESPN. It looks at the entire season.

Historically, CBS always grabs Florida-Georgia as their first pick. It could just be that ESPN grabbed Texas-Bama before CBS could with their pick.

They had UCLA@Michigan for that date at 3:30.   And the week prior its Ohio State@Indiana, after that no B1G 3:30s, guessing they start up on the SEC later.

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1 minute ago, Hurtlocker said:

They had UCLA@Michigan for that date at 3:30.   And the week prior its Ohio State@Indiana, after that no B1G 3:30s, guessing they start up on the SEC later.

That would make sense. They have more slots to fill just this year.

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13 minutes ago, bullet said:

https://www.aau.edu/newsroom/press-releases/six-leading-research-universities-join-association-american-universities

UC-Riverside, Miami (FL), Arizona St., George Washington, Notre Dame and South Florida get invited into AAU.

ASU and USF wow good for them, but Georgia still didn’t make the cut…Miami just got more attractive to the Big Ten.

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5 hours ago, gatormarc said:

IIRC, there is a preseason draft where CBS only gets a certain number of protected picks, and then there's a back and forth with ESPN. It looks at the entire season.

Historically, CBS always grabs Florida-Georgia as their first pick. It could just be that ESPN grabbed Texas-Bama before CBS could with their pick.

Texas/Bama pulled 11 million viewers last year, UGA/UF pulled 6. I think hurtlocker is right that it likely had more to do with getting Big Ten games to fit into their available slots while keeping their SEC requirements for this last year.

Either way it’s the last year so I’ve probably spent too much times thinking about this already lol.

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20 hours ago, Jabberwocky said:

 

If the UConn stuff is serious, then it has to include football.  I guess if you're a huge league, you need some football bottom feeders to provide wins for everyone else, and if that program is elite in men's hoops, all the better.  That doesn't make media money materialize, though.

There's no getting around the fact that Colorado and UConn have been two of the worst FBS football programs for the last decade.  ESPN has a pro rata deal with the Big 12 for P5 adds.  FOX doesn't.  So either FOX gets to direct expansion choices to some extent, with that leverage, or BY has another partner in mind who is ready to bid on new Big 12 inventory that FOX won't bid on.  Maybe Amazon wants to dip its toes into the college athletics space.  

 

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2 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

If the UConn stuff is serious, then it has to include football.  I guess if you're a huge league, you need some football bottom feeders to provide wins for everyone else, and if that program is elite in men's hoops, all the better.  That doesn't make media money materialize, though.

There's no getting around the fact that Colorado and UConn have been two of the worst FBS football programs for the last decade.  ESPN has a pro rata deal with the Big 12 for P5 adds.  FOX doesn't.  So either FOX gets to direct expansion choices to some extent, with that leverage, or BY has another partner in mind who is ready to bid on new Big 12 inventory that FOX won't bid on.  Maybe Amazon wants to dip its toes into the college athletics space.  

 

UConn just doesn't make sense to me. The closest Big 12 school is WVU, approximately 500 miles away, and WVU is already on an island. It's also a terrible fit culturally and for non-basketball sports. I get that Yormark wants the premier basketball league but it is seems like such a bad idea in every other respect. My only thought is that maybe he's using the threat of adding UConn to encourage another school (like ASU or Arizona) to jump in? 

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10 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

If the UConn stuff is serious, then it has to include football.  I guess if you're a huge league, you need some football bottom feeders to provide wins for everyone else, and if that program is elite in men's hoops, all the better.  That doesn't make media money materialize, though.

There's no getting around the fact that Colorado and UConn have been two of the worst FBS football programs for the last decade.  ESPN has a pro rata deal with the Big 12 for P5 adds.  FOX doesn't.  So either FOX gets to direct expansion choices to some extent, with that leverage, or BY has another partner in mind who is ready to bid on new Big 12 inventory that FOX won't bid on.  Maybe Amazon wants to dip its toes into the college athletics space.  

 

So the larger plan is Gonzaga in hoops, right? UConn, Kansas, Baylor, and Gonzaga makes for a hoops powerhouse.

The Big12 is taking a swing, but a conference in 4 time zones doesn’t make for a shared regional/conference identity. 
 

I wonder if ESPN is encouraging the hoops empire to build up ESPN+?

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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17 hours ago, gernblansten said:

You can fry an egg out there on the city sidewalk 
You can fry your bacon and and and and 
I understand why lizards live in sunny Arizona 
Why people do and call it home I'll never understand

As we say around here, it weeds out the weak lol

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10 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

UConn just doesn't make sense to me. The closest Big 12 school is WVU, approximately 500 miles away, and WVU is already on an island. It's also a terrible fit culturally and for non-basketball sports. I get that Yormark wants the premier basketball league but it is seems like such a bad idea in every other respect. My only thought is that maybe he's using the threat of adding UConn to encourage another school (like ASU or Arizona) to jump in? 

Who knows.  I guess if you thought Syracuse, Pitt, and Louisville were going to come loose, at some point, maybe they fill in the map for you a little bit and address the geography concerns UConn might cause.  I don't see how that helps make sense of the financial situation, unless he knows something nobody else does about the future monetization of the NCAA tourney. 

I understand the logic of threatening Arizona with a lost spot unless they go ahead and move, but I think the Big 12 can just wait PAC options out at this point.  I don't see that they need to create a lot of smoke to shake anyone loose.  The PAC's media rights situation should do that on its own.  

 

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59 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

UConn just doesn't make sense to me. The closest Big 12 school is WVU, approximately 500 miles away, and WVU is already on an island. It's also a terrible fit culturally and for non-basketball sports. I get that Yormark wants the premier basketball league but it is seems like such a bad idea in every other respect. My only thought is that maybe he's using the threat of adding UConn to encourage another school (like ASU or Arizona) to jump in? 

Ditto, all i can assume is it has to do with games in MSG, UConn isn't in the market, but they have a big NYC following.

Maybe its also to offer Zona more basketball bluebloods

Regardless, unless Uconn is agreeing to overspend on football for a while, its a whole lot of strange

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They just released this too:

Big 12 to Establish Commercial Sales Division

Today, the Big 12 has announced it will create an internal commercial sales division for the first time in the Conference’s 27-year history. In having complete control of its commercial business, the Conference is also announcing the hiring of Sean Desmond, the Big 12’s first-ever Vice President of Sales to lead commercial efforts. Desmond will report directly to Commissioner Yormark. Additionally, the Conference is hiring Austin Greenstein as Senior Director of Ticketing and Partnerships. Greenstein, most recently with Fenway Sports Management and the Boston Red Sox, will report to Desmond.
 
The Big 12 Conference’s commercial outreach strategy will be executed at the local, national, and international level. The Conference will use its in-house sales engine to maximize current revenue streams - which includes Big 12 Championships - as well as establish new opportunities. One of the first commercial sales opportunity the Conference will pursue is the title partner for the 2024 Big 12 Pro Day, being held at The Star in Frisco, TX. Additional opportunities include the partnership rights of the Big 12 replay operations room and its entire gameday venue monitoring operation, the Conference’s 2023 summer activations in New York City’s Rucker Park, as well as other newly introduced IP.
 
“As we continue to innovate the Big 12 Conference, controlling our commercial business is a crucial step,” said Commissioner Brett Yormark. “Through our commercial sales division, the Big 12 will look to grow each aspect of our Conference, enhancing existing revenue drivers and establishing new ones. Following his five years leading commercial sales in the college athletics space, we are thrilled to welcome Sean Desmond to the Big 12 family.”
 
In addition to sponsorship sales being led internally, the Conference will lead all its ticketing sales and operations for its championships and new events. The Conference will continue to work with LEARFIELD on a project-by-project basis and will tap into its vast resources, including ongoing relationships with LEARFIELD businesses CLC and SIDEARM, as the Conference continues to innovate and grow.

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ASU becoming an AAU member is bad news for Eugene Community College.  ASU is more attractive on many levels than the Zeros.

PHX is the #11 tv market in the US and is growing faster than almost any other top 15 market, except possibly Tampa.

PHX will be top 10 eventually. It dwarfs Eugene and is almost twice the size of Portland.

Lots of BIG alums, midwest transplants and snowbirds in the PHX area (infinitely more than Eugene/PDX), and good recruiting in AZ.

ASU generates 5x the research $$ as the Zeros. 

Unlike the PNW schools, ASU, like Stanford, actually would help USC and UCLA with travel, and it's an attractive place to visit for BIG schools/admin/fans.

//

There was no doubt the BIG would have made an exception for ND, and probably Miami also, but ND and Miami becoming AAU probably means Miami ends up in the BIG eventually.

BIG adding ND, Stanford, UNC, UVA, and Miami would be 21 teams. 50/50 on whether the SEC will add FSU. BIG adding FSU would be 22 teams.

At that point, they probably go to 24 and use a pod structure for scheduling. 

IF the BIG passes on GT and Duke and looks to add one or two teams in the West to as the final teams, ASU would be a legit candidate. 

There's multiple scenarios where ASU and UW (or maybe even CU, depending on how things play out over the next 5-10 years) get added over UO at that point.

There's a possibility the BIG stops at 20 or 22, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 24 team BIG with a West pod of USC, ND, UCLA and Stanford, or a West division of USC, ND, UCLA, Stanford, ASU and UW.

Either way, ASU becoming AAU adds another school in the West that's more attractive than Eugene Community College.

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45 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Ditto, all i can assume is it has to do with games in MSG, UConn isn't in the market, but they have a big NYC following.

Maybe its also to offer Zona more basketball bluebloods

Regardless, unless Uconn is agreeing to overspend on football for a while, its a whole lot of strange

UConn agreeing to overspend on football for a while isn't far-fetched.  That school has money.  They're also arguably the premier program in men's basketball currently, with 5 natties since '99.  Dan Hurley is young, too, so they could keep things rolling for a while if they can afford to keep him (Big 12 money > Big East money in that respect.) 

My assumption is that the Big 12 is aggressively pursuing expansion with the blessing of its media partners.  Somehow an expanded Big 12 saves ESPN/FOX money.  Getting enough PAC inventory into the Big 12 that ESPN can 1) not bid on that PAC contract, and 2) continue airing "After Dark" inventory makes sense to that end.  The Big 12 expands, makes money, and its partners save money by paying for the inventory of fewer overall schools.  Maybe FOX and/or ESPN intend to shuffle east cost inventory in a similar way, for similar reason.

BC, Wake, Duke, etc., could be facing a Stanford/Cal/Washington State-ish future.       

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2 hours ago, Park Gothic said:

UConn just doesn't make sense to me. The closest Big 12 school is WVU, approximately 500 miles away, and WVU is already on an island. It's also a terrible fit culturally and for non-basketball sports. I get that Yormark wants the premier basketball league but it is seems like such a bad idea in every other respect. My only thought is that maybe he's using the threat of adding UConn to encourage another school (like ASU or Arizona) to jump in? 

I don't think it would work, but it's worth having the conversations. 

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8 minutes ago, camel at sea said:

UConn agreeing to overspend on football for a while isn't far-fetched.  That school has money.  They're also arguably the premier program in men's basketball currently, with 5 natties since '99.  Dan Hurley is young, too, so they could keep things rolling for a while if they can afford to keep him (Big 12 money > Big East money in that respect.) 

My assumption is that the Big 12 is aggressively pursuing expansion with the blessing of its media partners.  Somehow an expanded Big 12 saves ESPN/FOX money.  Getting enough PAC inventory into the Big 12 that ESPN can 1) not bid on that PAC contract, and 2) continue airing "After Dark" inventory makes sense to that end.  The Big 12 expands, makes money, and its partners save money by paying for the inventory of fewer overall schools.  Maybe FOX and/or ESPN intend to shuffle east cost inventory in a similar way, for similar reason.

BC, Wake, Duke, etc., could be facing a Stanford/Cal/Washington State-ish future.       

If it gets you Arizona/ASU, i can see it.   Zona is worth far more than the Zags, even in just basketball.

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