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Realignment talk not going away


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15 minutes ago, Sandbagging Steve said:

Oregon and Washington are reported to be worth $60,000,000 total. They would need to be worth close to $150,000,000 to keep the B1G from losing money. Those numbers come from a former TV executive. Oregon and Washington are both borderline top 20 programs overall. In other words, really damn good.

This shows the branding power of tOSU, Texas, Michigan, Notre Dame and Penn State with USC coming in behind them. You then have just a few more programs that can even cover their own weight. After that, it's competition for these teams to play. The better the competition, and closer to break even you can get, the better. In order to add the Clemsons and other teams that deserve to be included, you eventually have to demote a bottom feeder or take a $40,000,000 to $55,000,000 per year loss to revenue for every single team added.

This is why the B1G prefers to wait on ND. And this is why, down the road, a deadweight or two could get purged.

With Texas just added, the SEC could be the next to add teams. They have extra money to spend on adding two teams because they just added one of the Big 6 teams, Texas. It will come down to GOR agreements. ND may be easier for the B1G to pry loose from the GOR. We will see.

 

Which is why I think this will all happen very fast.  ND is really the only program left that brings money to the table, everyone else is a money suck at some level (unless Phil Knight wants to literally subsidize Oregon to find a landing place), unless you can put a slate of IP together so strong that it enriches the TV deal. All the other big names are off the board. BUT, ND is at a premium now. If they wait too long, and either the SEC or B1G can gather enough other names to grab the drivers seat on a huge deal, possibly excluding the Irish from premium match ups down the line, they lose their negotiating position.

Edited by Bateshorn
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44 minutes ago, XOVERX said:

I think JRsec is right: There will be an NCAA breakaway by the SEC and B1G. A breakaway means March Madness as it exists today will change. The SEC and B1G will have their own basketball playoff, perhaps incorporating other leagues into that basketball playoff over time. In other words, basketball will become significantly more lucrative without the NCAA taking the largest part of the payout.

Of course, the college football world is waiting on ND right now.

For purposes of this post, let's assume the following: First, ND goes B1G and not SEC. Second, except for ND, the B1G will continue to add schools that are AAU. Third, the B1G would not go past 24 schools at this point in realignment.

With the addition of USC and UCLA to the B1G, the PAC is seriously injured. If ND leaves the ACC, the ACC would be seriously injured. Here are the AAU schools out there that the B1G might reasonably consider to add if ND goes B1G: ArizonaUtahKansasNorth CarolinaOregonCalStanfordDukeVirginiaWashingtonGeorgia Tech, and Colorado.

Since the PAC is more recently traumatized, plus its TV contract expires in 2025, I suspect the B1G would first fill out to 20 by taking ND and 3 from the West, to include at least Oregon and Washington, which gives the B1G massive presence in the West (something like 47% of all West Coast TV viewers).

Add one more school from this group: ArizonaUtahKansasCalStanford, and Colorado. I would guess Stanford, but no matter, pick your own favorite, and now the B1G is at 20.

With ND leaving the ACC, it would seem to be a matter of time before the ACC bleeds schools (most likely a lot sooner than 2036). From the B1G pov, here is who the B1G could take to get to 24: KansasNorth CarolinaDukeVirginia, and Georgia Tech. The B1G's choices are more limited in the ACC even when Kansas is included. I doubt the B1G would go back to the West when ACC suitors begin calling.

The linchpin, of course, is UNC. Both the SEC and UNC want UNC. Whichever league gets UNC, Duke is reportedly a take linked to UNC. It is also possible that UVA could become linked to UNC-Duke. Both leagues would take all 3 of those schools.

SCENARIO 1 - B1G WINS UNC:

If UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G, I think the B1G would then take GT, get deep into SEC country and call it a league. I don't think the B1G would choose KU over GT, but this is a guess.

UNC and Duke to the B1G would take two huge basketball schools off the SEC board. But if basketball is worth the gamble, Kansas would possibly still be out there for the SEC. With no AAU requirement, Louisville plays good basketball periodically. Similarly, Syracuse has a ton of basketball fans.

On the football side, FSU and Clemson are there. Also, the SEC still gets that NC/VA presence by taking lesser lights NCSU and VPI and the SEC just "grows" them, to the chagrin of UNC (although UVA maybe wouldn't care).

Maybe retaliate against the B1G if it took GT by the SEC taking Pitt, striking deep into B1G country? Maybe take CU (because I love that road trip to Boulder, lol)?

The point is the SEC has lots of options even if UNC, Duke, and UVA go to the B1G. What's not clear is whether the remaining schools, even with basketball, and future basketball revenue after a breakaway, are sufficiently accretive to add to the SEC.

SCENARIO 2 - SEC WINS UNC:

OTOH, does UNC want to cede the SEC and southern recruiting to NCSU? Seriously? Texas wasn't willing to take that gamble viz-a-viz Texas A&M. And without the AAU requirement, the SEC has flexibility to take in a lot more ACC schools than does the B1G, which also would help to persuade UNC, right?

So, now let's assume UNC and Duke go to the SEC and not to the B1G. Maybe UVA tags along, maybe they don't, but VPI is sitting there for SEC taking if UVA fails to show. The states of NC and VA are covered, period, in either scenario.

FSU and Clemson get a ticket, almost certainly, so let's get them off the table.

Now the SEC takes Kansas if they are still there because they have a legendary basketball heritage. The SEC could go further still in basketball with Louisville. Even further with Syracuse.

As wildcards, there's still Pitt and CU, possibly Utah (although I wouldn't think anything past KU is realistically in play for the SEC).

Anyhow, under Scenario 2, both football and basketball are strengthened. It would seem that UNC is the key from the SEC pov, not ND. If the SEC can add all of UNC, Duke, Kansas, possibly Louisville, maybe Syracuse, to add to Kentucky (and other SEC powers), the SEC would certainly be set for basketball revenue yearly come March Madness.

B1G likes Miami too

The basketball theory has relevance, but it is tricky. You can't just take some of these schools that bring very little (UVA) unless it is all at once and then a breakaway from the NCAA in order to get all the basketball money. You can't take 4 or 5 of those schools and then wait a few years. Otherwise, you lose a bunch of money on your TV contract.

B1G like UVA but VT is actually a much better athletic program. UVA has very few fans, but they are a prestigious academic university and the flagship of Virginia. SEC would be interested in not only VT but maybe UVA in order to block the B1G's advancement into the southeast, just like you mentioned with UNC.

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If your not a historical top 25 football program you have to bring other qualities to the table.

SEC top 25ers- Texas, Oklahoma, aggy, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee

Outside the top 25- Mizzou, Ole Miss, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vandy, Mississippi St

Mizzou/Vandy bring academics/markets which are needed.  Without them, Texas, aggy, Florida, and UGA their shot at getting UNC would be slim to none. Getting UNC, Duke, UVA, Kansas would help the SEC’s academic (and basketball) outlook greatly.

Kentucky basketball

South Carolina and Ole Miss are flagships of their states

Mississippi State brings…

Cut MSU and replace with Kansas, NCSU, or WVU and the SEC would be better off.

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

You think the Big Ten and SEC will give a playoff spot to another conference.  The SEC commissioner warned them not to turn down the playoff deal. I doubt they leave any open spots for the PAC/MWC/B12/AAC/MAC/ACC/SBC.

Which is why nd will join as a full member of either the big 10 or the sec

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9 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah, I like this question.

Wonder if B12 now wishes they weren't locked into additions of UCF/Cincy/ UH ?? 

Honestly, I think it kind of depends on where everything is going to end up. The only schools left in the Big 12 and Pac that are very likely to end up in the B1G or SEC are Oregon and Washington. So if every other conference gets left out completely, I think the Big 12 is better off with whatever is left of the Pac staying intact and vice versa. If everyone stays in the NCAA and the playoffs get expanded, then the Big 12 has some regrets.

Edited by The Hot Dog Buffet
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56 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

If your not a historical top 25 football program you have to bring other qualities to the table.

SEC top 25ers- Texas, Oklahoma, aggy, Arkansas, LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee

Outside the top 25- Mizzou, Ole Miss, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vandy, Mississippi St

Mizzou/Vandy bring academics/markets which are needed.  Without them, Texas, aggy, Florida, and UGA their shot at getting UNC would be slim to none. Getting UNC, Duke, UVA, Kansas would help the SEC’s academic (and basketball) outlook greatly.

Kentucky basketball

South Carolina and Ole Miss are flagships of their states

Mississippi State brings…

Cut MSU and replace with Kansas, NCSU, or WVU and the SEC would be better off.

So much dumbass in this post the SEC is not trading MSU for Kansas, WVU or NCSTATE.  It won't happen.  Do you really think WVU is better academically than any of the aforementioned universities?  If so, the bless your heart.

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36 minutes ago, wildturkey8 said:

So much dumbass in this post the SEC is not trading MSU for Kansas, WVU or NCSTATE.  It won't happen.  Do you really think WVU is better academically than any of the aforementioned universities?  If so, the bless your heart.

Trading/cutting schools doesn’t happen, WOW so smart.  We’re talking about if the SEC/B1G reformed like the MWC did after the 16 team WAC debacle in order to cut dead weight leaching off the conference. MSU brings nothing to the table they wouldn’t make the cut but Kansas, West Virginia, NCSU could.

and yes, West Virginia academics are shit but they are a top 25 football program with .600 winning percentage which is far superior to MSU’s losing percentage of .490.  MSU doesn’t even make the top 75 which includes Kansas, Vandy, Kentucky, and Rutgers.  They are pathetic.

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47 minutes ago, wildturkey8 said:

So much dumbass in this post the SEC is not trading MSU for Kansas, WVU or NCSTATE.  It won't happen.  Do you really think WVU is better academically than any of the aforementioned universities?  If so, the bless your heart.

They do burn couches instead of crosses, so..

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Nsiap 

https://247sports.com/Article/College-football-conference-realignment-Four-Pac-12-teams-in-discussions-to-move-to-Big-12-per-report-189628140/
 

Quote

Sources indicate to WildcatAuthoritythat there will be significant discussions centered around Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah making their way to the soon-to-be-altered Big 12 Conference.

“Most of the conversations that have taken place within member schools have not dealt with saving the Pac-12, but rather where else the schools could end up,” WildcatAuthority wrote. “This is all a fluid situation and things can change, but the general belief is that the Pac-12 will be difficult to save. Oregon and Washington are both actively looking to get out of the conference, Stanford is rumored to be a serious candidate to join the Big 10 with Notre Dame, and the other conferences such as the Mountain West don't have the market impact to keep the Pac-12 as a serious conference."

Looks like the big 12 is the cat with unlimited lives

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7 hours ago, Sandbagging Steve said:B1G like UVA but VT is actually a much better athletic program. 

VT is better than UVA at football and pretty much nothing else. 
 

ACC Schools in Final 2021-22 Directors’ Cup Standings
6. North Carolina – 1087.25

8. Notre Dame – 1021.00
11. Virginia – 942.50
14. Florida State – 910.00
17. NC State – 870.00
21. Duke – 849.50
33. Virginia Tech – 688.25
34. Louisville – 663.50
45. Wake Forest – 530.00
50. Miami (FL) – 516.00
65. Clemson – 357.50
68. Georgia Tech – 352.25
72. Syracuse – 304.00
73. Pittsburgh – 298.00
109. Boston College – 165.00

 

15C98FB4-3EF2-4D74-A1EF-5A44B8735CD9.jpeg

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Yeah, pretty clear to me that if the B1G did expand east, their first two targets would be UNC/UVA, SEC would probably just pass on North Carolina if they didn't get UNC, but I could still see them taking Va Tech to get into Virginia.

I don't think the SEC would want either NC State or Duke without UNC.

After UNC/UVA, I could see the B1G grabbing GT, again, assuming they had to go East.  Miami is the one that is most interesting to me - not really an academic fit and can't fill their stadium, but a big brand in a huge recruiting hotbed.

I think for long term continuity, the B1G needs to give USC/UCLA travel partners first, but if UVA/UNC had interest, it would be difficult for the B1G to say no.

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5 hours ago, Gidnik said:

Looks like the big 12 is the cat with unlimited lives

Big 12 is centrally located with many programs & fan bases > then what's leftover in the Pac after Stanford, U-Dub, and UO leave for the B1G. 

Gotta find that life raft.

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https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-mailbag-deals-with-pac-12s
 

interesting, says Fox thinks Cal/Stanford are worth $90m a year together and are joined at the hip and that Oregon is only worth $30m.  Still far short of the $143m needed for the Big 10 to break even by taking them but may readjust peoples perception of what schools are more interesting to the Networks

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3 hours ago, sportsbay said:

Is it just me or is anyone else wondering what will happen to these conferences when payment of the federal debt is sucking up most of the countries revenue?

These conferences are going to be living the 1000 lbs life. It's not sustainable. 

The number of people streaming for free is another problem.  Cord cutting with free streaming is going to kill the networks.

*Drunk Uncle has entered the chat*

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I don't follow this stuff closely.

Explain to me how the lesser schools cost the conferences money? Is it lost opportunity cost, or is it there some subsidizing going on?

It seems like you have a game, you sell tickets. If the networks can sell advertising for ppl to watch, they televise the game and pay out a cut.

If the program can't cover costs with ticket, merchandise sales, tv rev, donations etc then they would shit can the program.

What am I missing?

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17 minutes ago, BillyBadAss said:

I don't follow this stuff closely.

Explain to me how the lesser schools cost the conferences money? Is it lost opportunity cost, or is it there some subsidizing going on?

It seems like you have a game, you sell tickets. If the networks can sell advertising for ppl to watch, they televise the game and pay out a cut.

If the program can't cover costs with ticket, merchandise sales, tv rev, donations etc then they would shit can the program.

What am I missing?

 

Hypothetically, if USC is worth $150 million to a conference from a network, and if all 16 (or 20 or whatever) members of the conference are worth $150 million each from a network,  then that conference is going to be uber wealthy.

So, USC is worth $150 million, and so is Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State.  After that, each of the schools in the B10 is "worth" varying levels of worth.  But Purdue or Illinois aren't worth anything close to $150 million, so people claim lesser schools cost the conference potentially.  

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Conferences need doormats,  even in this new age of realignment. This isn't the NFL where parity is what the league strives for.

 

 

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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4 hours ago, hawkfan said:

 Miami is the one that is most interesting to me - not really an academic fit and can't fill their stadium, but a big brand in a huge recruiting hotbed.

I think Miami ends up in the big12 as a traveling partner to UCF , and all this pac12 stuff ends USFs circling to the cellar. 

 

SEC won't take Miami to prop up a third Florida team that can't even fill half it's stadium 

 

BIG similarly, buts it's also on an island . Even joined with Georgia tech the geography makes no sense. I think they stop with some set of Virginia schools and call it done

 

 

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59 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I think Miami ends up in the big12 as a traveling partner to UCF

ACC schools have a GOR until 2036. How do you theorize that The U will survive the next 14 seasons without getting any TV revenue. Are you that confident they can sue their way out of a GOR? 

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Fox and b1g are basically betting that the regional paradigm of college football in the semi pro era is dead.   If so, I think fox and b1g have a unique opportunity right now while ESPN is slow rolling TX and ou.    Fox and b1g should bag nd and then do whatever it takes to steal TX and the gooners before the sec ink dries.  B12 buyout?  It’s covered.  A conf of mich, tosu, nd, usc, tx, ou, and yes even neb would have unmatched national content with seven of the eight ‘bluebloods’ in football.     Wisc, msu, ucla, iowa, pedo are more than adequate next tier draws for national tv eyeballs.  Throw in mia for the florida markets and flow of money through fox and 3rd tier rights would dwarf what espn could do with the sec, acc, and b12/pac scraps.    
 

Two or three premier matchups each weekend with other schools that actually play school.   Better than having a bunch of inbreds and aggy invading Austin 2-3 times a year.  

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1 hour ago, BigHornedLurker said:

I think Miami ends up in the big12 as a traveling partner to UCF , and all this pac12 stuff ends USFs circling to the cellar. 

 

SEC won't take Miami to prop up a third Florida team that can't even fill half it's stadium 

 

BIG similarly, buts it's also on an island . Even joined with Georgia tech the geography makes no sense. I think they stop with some set of Virginia schools and call it done

 

 

I doubt this happens, but if the ACC dissolves and they get passed over by the B1G and SEC, The B12 would snap Miami up in a heartbeat. It makes sense for UCF, for recruiting, and gives them a nice media market. 

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27 minutes ago, JFKFC said:

ACC schools have a GOR until 2036. How do you theorize that The U will survive the next 14 seasons without getting any TV revenue. Are you that confident they can sue their way out of a GOR? 

Has anyone looked into how many schools would need to leave for the conference to dissolve and their TV contract to be void? I seem to remember the B12 had to have 5? Schools leave for the TV rights to be voided and ESPN was trying to engineer that behind the scenes and got caught. I wonder if it is similar for the ACC, so if they can engineer the B1G taking UNC/UVA, and the SEC taking FSU/Clemson, then that leaves only one more school to go. Could be Va Tech, could be Miami.

Edited by Vertigo
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If the Big12 were to merge with the Pac12 (as opposed to adding a few members), that seems like the sorta thing that could release Texas from their anchor to this clownshow conference. Particularly, I'm thinking adding Cal and Stanford so some egos and lawyers get involved and a new conference name is selected and new bylaws get written.

 

Am I just dreaming?

 

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2 minutes ago, Jasper_Jester said:

If the Big12 were to merge with the Pac12 (as opposed to adding a few members), that seems like the sorta thing that could release Texas from their anchor to this clownshow conference. Particularly, I'm thinking adding Cal and Stanford so some egos and lawyers get involved and a new conference name is selected and new bylaws get written.

 

Am I just dreaming?

 

Right, I think adding 4 more schools materially changes the make-up and payout of the conference?  I'm really just hoping.  Now, the other move would be the PAC poaches a few of the Big 12 schools and the conference breaks up.  Seems like the Pac is more open to USC leaving compared to the Big 12 hangers-on are.  

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2 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

image.png.2717a29346b6b42fb8d0bc628e2c7133.png
 

Baylor pulls less than 1/3 the tv viewers than Texas waning they are a 1/3 less valuable (and that’s being generous).  Despite that the Big 12 tv deal is an aggregate and Baylor pulls in an equal payout as Texas. Back in the day when we had unequal revenue distribution UT/OU (and USC/UCLA) would have received more money equal to their increased value to the conference, but after the 2010 realignment that all went away and everyone went to equal revenue sharing after Nebraska’s bitching.  The unintended consequence is that the bluebloods felt unappreciated and were no long satisfied to sit in a weaker conference with a weaker payout while their peer institutions were about to pull in $100 million a year.  Had the Big12 or PAC12 realized how beneficial the tv payouts were to the Baylor/Washington States of the conference and how they negatively impacted their blueblood and made adjustments then perhaps this could have been avoided.  Instead the lesser members of the conference enjoyed a free decade of big $ payout that they only received because they leached money away from their bluebloods, meanwhile they complained about the LHN and the LA schools wanting additional revenue from the region channel, and now they are pissed that the gravy train is over. Funny enough the very first thing both conferences offer was to provide UT/OU and USC/UCLA more money, there wasn’t a long drawn out discussion as everyone knew they were worth more than they were getting, but at that point the damage was already done, why stay with the conference that knew for a fact that they were underpaying you and complaining about you at the same time for a decade.  If you knew UT/OU USC/UCLA we’re key to your entire conference to survive then why treat them like shit.  Greed.  Which ironically is the same sin they are throwing back at the departing schools on their way out the door.

Gotdam, buy some paragraph breaks from Vanna!

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1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

secrant thinks we're gone to the b1g with thieves

Those trolls don't know anything, just dumb wishful thinking.

It would actually make a lot of sense, aau dollars are tremendous. 

BIG is actually my preference for the university as a whole, SEC my preference for football only 

That said until Texas starts playing football in a new league I think anything is possible and I wouldn't be surprise if the USC and ND news and it's quick timeline could cause a re-eval if OU can be brought 

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41 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

I've coveted these titties for decades.

A friend of the family lived next door to her in the Hollywood hills for over a decade.  Said that she was incredibly nice and even more spectacular in person than on screen

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