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Realignment talk not going away


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21 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The 14 team SEC last year during conference play averaged 3 games a week on CBS or ESPN and 3 games a week on the SEC Network. Only 2 games fell to ESPN2/U (Mizzou/UF, MSU/Aub).

Texas and Oklahoma accounted for 8 games on ABC/ESPN while in the Big12 (and many also were in FOX). Their addition easily equates to an extra game a week which would give the SEC 4 quality games worthy of an ABC/ESPN broadcast.

I suspect we’ll see push back from the B12/ACC from showing 3 SEC games back to back to back on ABC so I’d guess we’ll see 2 on ABC most weekends and a 3rd and highly likely 4th game on ESPN in a Noon/Prime kick.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think ESPN aggressively bid to get the SEC’s Tier One rights from CBS and help orchestrate expansion with UT/OU just to throw more SEC games on ESPN2/U.

It won't necessarily be that there are more games, its just that the ones they show will be bigger.   There will be more Texas and Oklahoma on ABC/ESPN, and less South Carolina and Missouri.  

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2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

My guess is B12 gets 1 and ACC gets 2 and the SEC gets 3.   The B12 will get another one with Fox.   The rest fall to secondary channels.

In 2022 the ACC only averaged about 1.5 games a week on ESPN/ABC. They had a heavy presence on ESPN2/U.

The Big 12 with UT/OU averaged 1 game a week (remember they have FOX too).

If the Big 12 adds Colorado/Arizona I’m betting that 1 will often shift to the late kick inventory (like it did with the PAC12 which only had 3 games on ABC/ESPN outside of the Late window) but maybe that ups them to 1.5 to match the ACC.

That’s still only 3 games a week between the ACC/B12 like you theorized but one of those would be in the Late window meaning 2 games a week in the daytime windows leaving room for 4 SEC games.

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21 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

It won't necessarily be that there are more games, its just that the ones they show will be bigger.   There will be more Texas and Oklahoma on ABC/ESPN, and less South Carolina and Missouri.  

Week 6 2022

Texas/OU on ABC at Noon
Tennessee/LSU on ESPN at Noon
Auburn/Georgia on CBS at 330
Alabama/aggy on CBS Primetime

You dropping any of those to ESPN2?

Also over on SECN they had 3 ranked teams playing unranked opponents including what was billed to be a good Arkansas/MSU matchup.

and Mizzou@Florida was on ESPNU

Edit: I think you’re also forgetting they lost all their Big Ten content. That was  more than 1 game a week.

Edited by TKthunder2
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56 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The 14 team SEC last year during conference play averaged 3 games a week on CBS or ESPN and 3 games a week on the SEC Network. Only 2 games fell to ESPN2/U (Mizzou/UF, MSU/Aub).

Texas and Oklahoma accounted for 8 games on ABC/ESPN while in the Big12 (and many also were in FOX). Their addition easily equates to an extra game a week which would give the SEC 4 quality games worthy of an ABC/ESPN broadcast.

I suspect we’ll see push back from the B12/ACC from showing 3 SEC games back to back to back on ABC so I’d guess we’ll see 2 on ABC most weekends and a 3rd and highly likely 4th game on ESPN in a Noon/Prime kick.

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think ESPN aggressively bid to get the SEC’s Tier One rights from CBS and help orchestrate expansion with UT/OU just to throw more SEC games on ESPN2/U.

I agree.  ESPN is going to want max ROI, and the SEC will want max exposure.  Neither side will want SEC games on ESPN2/U.  ACC/B12 will get the scraps, including the noon ABC game so that it's not wall to wall SEC on ABC.

We both think the SEC will have 4 games most weeks worth a good tv slot, but how do they maximize that ?  Does having SEC games on both ABC and ESPN in primetime cannibalize the audience ?  That's what I was getting at in the other post- I find it really interesting to forecast how this will all play out.

As part of giving the SEC more money for a 9th SEC game, does ESPN get some Thursday night games in return ?  

What would get a better rating ?  Thursday night vs mediocre NFL game on Amazon, or Sat night ESPN vs another SEC game on ABC ?

My gut feeling is that they'd be better off with a really good Thursday game than having two really good SEC games competing with each other in primetime.

A Thursday night SEC game could actually do well vs the NFL, as there are a lot of SEC fans and a lot of people like me, who aren't SEC fans per se, but enjoy watching SEC games and would rather watch an SEC game than an NFL game.

 

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13 hours ago, hawkfan said:

I really don't understand how this is turning out poorly for ISU.  It's going to turn out a lot better than it looked like it was going to early on when UT/OU announced they were leaving.

The only thing that sucks for the B12 is I'm sure they wish they could have a do over on UCF/Houston/Cincinnati probably.  They'll almost surely get AZ/ASU/Colorado/Utah, and once the SEC/B1G take who they want from the ACC, they can probably grab Pitt/Louisville/Va Tech/Etc too.

This will end up being the B1G/SEC as the top two, but the B12 will remain at the top level of CFB - just be thankful you aren't Washington State/Oregon State/Wake Forest/Boston College/Etc who won't have a seat at the table IMO.

Yeah, I like things the way they turned out all things considered.  It's not how I'd draw it up, but I'll be plenty entertained as a fan.

This shit show started when I responded to a post about re-organizing college football into 8 9 team divisions with one collective bargaining agreement, instead of conferences fighting each other for prestige and windows and shit.  I threw up a proposed 8 x 9 model, stated a preference for geography to matter in sports again/my opinion that it's more fun to play the schools and fanbases around you, and the next thing you know I'm being accused of calling Texas and it's fans greedy money grubbing whores - something I never came close to saying or implying in the last few days, but a group of 5-6 posters in this thread are always looking for in my posts.  In fairness to reality, it was a mindset I harbored in the immediate wake of the SEC move, but have long moved past.  I think that moves UT, OU, USC, and UCLA made all make sense for those schools, and any school in their position would do the same.  I just don't like that this where the game is at.

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10 hours ago, VoteforHank said:

Exactly. Which B12 matchup will be a national draw? Tell me please. 

Texas vs. 0u

Oh wait we're leaving...

Hmm

I guess TCU vs. OSU is going to be the biggest game of the year. The rig 12 will probably pick between them two and Baylor, Cincinnati, and I guess BYU to be the "chosen one" to go undefeated and try to squeeze into the playoffs.

Although I guess they are going to 8 teams by then so it won't be too hard. 

Zero nu-big 12 games are of national interest. 

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7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

In 2022 the ACC only averaged about 1.5 games a week on ESPN/ABC. They had a heavy presence on ESPN2/U.

The Big 12 with UT/OU averaged 1 game a week (remember they have FOX too).

If the Big 12 adds Colorado/Arizona I’m betting that 1 will often shift to the late kick inventory (like it did with the PAC12 which only had 3 games on ABC/ESPN outside of the Late window) but maybe that ups them to 1.5 to match the ACC.

That’s still only 3 games a week between the ACC/B12 like you theorized but one of those would be in the Late window meaning 2 games a week in the daytime windows leaving room for 4 SEC games.

Yeah I don't classify the late window as one of the 6 T1 slots that the mouse has.    It's important, because its literally the only thing at that time, but its more T2 as it pulls numbers closer to an ESPN2 game, at best, and is mostly all centered on mountain/pacific viewers.   That makes it kind of a separate deal.   At the moment I don't expect to see the B12 in it often, but it may have a few BYU home games there, which may be why ESPN is less inclined to pay the Pac much.   To your point, if they were to add a Colorado or Arizona, I do expect for it to be paid for with the after dark window, somewhat.   With all those teams in mountain that means a 8:30pm kick off, as opposed to prime time if you're in pacific.  The fact that this gets discussed as a positive for the Pac is more a negative than anything else.   If all you have to offer is filling a spot that is barely watched, that's not really a crown jewel at the negotiating table.

ESPN paid a lot to gobble up the top B12 games (top four, best 6 out of 8, best 8 out of 12, and best 12 out of 20) and I think that was in response to the B1G deal becoming too expensive, so I'm pretty confident they're going to find a weekly window to show case them.   It wouldn't shock me if they started getting a branded segment at noon after College Gameday or afternoon to go against one of the B1G marketing windows.   The SEC will own primetime, outside some FSU/Miami/Clemson/ND road games.

At the end of the day, these are rough averages.   I don't think it will be 3/3 each and every week.   Some weeks will have a weaker schedule in one of the conferences and it will be made up by the others.   

7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

Week 6 2022

Texas/OU on ABC at Noon
Tennessee/LSU on ESPN at Noon
Auburn/Georgia on CBS at 330
Alabama/aggy on CBS Primetime

You dropping any of those to ESPN2?

Also over on SECN they had 3 ranked teams playing unranked opponents including what was billed to be a good Arkansas/MSU matchup.

and Mizzou@Florida was on ESPNU

Edit: I think you’re also forgetting they lost all their Big Ten content. That was  more than 1 game a week.

No i didn't forget, but its only 6 T1 windows.   If the B1G signed with the mouse, the B12 wasn't getting slotted, they only have so much room.   The Big Ten owned the noon slot on ESPN for a very long time and got great ratings, then they had another ABC game, usually primetime, each week and then some others scattered around the dial.  The SEC and B12 took those slots.

As for Week 6, per above, not every week will be exactly 3/3 you'll see a flux.   When the SEC plays all their cupcakes you'll see more B12, weeks like this you'll see more SEC its really season count we're looking at.   It also will matter how everyone is doing.   16 teams with 9 conference games also means more loses.   If Auburn or Aggy aren't world beaters, that game may drop.   The River won't, due to rivalry game.

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Hey Michigan State fans, did you like the idea of having that final home game, Senior Day no less, in your stadium  against Penn State so it can give you that much more of a chance to win? Well too bad because NBC and the Big 10 are moving you to Detroit to an NFL stadium! But hey, at least you're getting paid!

 

Edited by mdmost
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22 hours ago, statsman said:

There is always discussion of the P3-5 conferences adding schools, and there is no shortage of g5 schools wanting to make the jump. I wonder what would happen if the networks said to Oregon, UW, ASU, UA, Colorado, TT, FSU, Clemson, UVA, VT, Pitt, Miami, UNC, NCSU and Syracuse- “You know, in your current conferences, you get $30 M per year. If you can figure out how to ditch them and form one new conference, we’d pay you $50 M per year”. 

This seems so obvious I seriously don't understand why the networks don't make this happen. Just going off one of the more recent "program value" estimates, the top 16 programs outside the SEC/BIG/ND would be:

1. Washington

2. Clemson

3. Stanford

4. Florida State

5. North Carolina

6. Oregon

7. Oklahoma State

8. Miami

9. Iowa State

10. NC State

11. Arizona State

12. Virginia

13. Virginia Tech

14. Utah

15. TCU

16. BYU

Going beyond 16 if necessary, or if some of the above make the BIG/SEC:

17. Baylor (fuck em, just going by the numbers here)

18. Cal

19. Pitt

20. Wake Forest (surprised how high this one is)

21. West Virginia (surprised how low this one is)

22. Duke

23. Texas Tech

24. Georgia Tech

I'm surprised how low KU, KSU are. Also CU and Arizona, who might be undervalued here from a network perspective. Either way, I think a 16 team conference of the "leftovers" would have greater value than the current ACC/XII/PAC as they are likely to exist after the next round. 

https://www.si.com/college/2022/07/14/power-5-desirability-rankings-sec-big-ten-acc

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31 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

I'm looking forward to Iowa State blaming Oregon State for all of their problems. 

Pretty sure nobody cares there, our beef is more with the Vanderbilts and Purdues of the world, contributing far less to their conferences than ISU or OKST, but raking in all that fucking money same as Ohio State. That concept alone is why I'll continue to rail on the absurdity of realignment as it's occurred.

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14 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Pretty sure nobody cares there, our beef is more with the Vanderbilts and Purdues of the world, contributing far less to their conferences than ISU or OKST, but raking in all that fucking money same as Ohio State. That concept alone is why I'll continue to rail on the absurdity of realignment as it's occurred.

Wtf have you contributed to the big 3 sports since big 12 was formed?  Iowa St more pitiful.

 

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Edited by BurntOrange&White
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2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Wtf have you contributed to the big 3 sports since big 12 was formed? 

Quite a bit, but you know that, far more than the examples I listed, and more than most of the bottom half of the BIG and SEC. Basketball is the only one of the big 3 in which we have truly stunk since 2005, but stink being relative as we've won plenty of games and make some tourney appearances, just nothing particularly of note.

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Quite a bit, but you know that, far more than the examples I listed, and more than most of the bottom half of the BIG and SEC. Basketball is the only one of the big 3 in which we have truly stunk since 2005, but stink being relative as we've won plenty of games and make some tourney appearances, just nothing particularly of note.

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Iowa State is so pathetic they don't even have a damn baseball team. 

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15 hours ago, VoteforHank said:

Exactly. Which B12 matchup will be a national draw? Tell me please. 

Eh, this coming year with TCU coming off a title game, 4 new schools getting their one and only shots against UT/OU, and the UT/OU exit tour, I'd guess the Big 12 will get a lot of games with some national appeal.  You can almost pencil in 4M+ viewers for Bedlam (even if both teams suck) right now.

After UT and OU exit, the "national draw" games will just be those games between schools who are ranked.  Their good games will have CFP implications.  If a few programs establish themselves at the top of the conference, somewhat consistently, then whoever those programs are will see some brand growth and the national interest that comes with that.

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20 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

aggy and Texas are in alignment on the PUF. It's ours, and everybody better keep their damn paws off of it. That might be the only thing we agree on, but it's a pretty important piece that drives many policy decisions in the legislature and the governor's mansion. We'll team up to protect our money. 

Tech is bitching that Lubbock is closer to University Lands, and they don't see a piece of the PUF. This is in turn is a determent to their system/the state/locals. They completely ignore the existence of UTPB in Odessa. 

They also ignore the fact that UT backed them for a large animal veterinary school which they've trying to build since the 1970s. 

they will team up to take 1/3rd of our money

aggy sits on the UTIMCO board but that is by fiat

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SIAP:

 

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/05/23/colorado-ready-to-commit-to-join-big-12-soon-report/

 

Quote

As we await for the next domino to fall in the game of conference realignment, all eyes have long been on Colorado as the most likely to be that domino. And according to a new report from The Oklahoman’s Berry Tramel, a Big 12 source told him that Colorado is ready to commit to joining the Big 12 “soon”.

Colorado has denied its interest in a return to its former conference every chance they can publicly, however there is more than enough smoke to suggest the Buffaloes have been strongly considering this move for quite some time.

 

And it makes sense given the roadblocks the Pac-12 has continuously run into, most notably their inability to get a new television deal, which becomes more concerning with each passing day. Most recently, a report came down from The New York Post’s Andrew Marchand, who has been covering the Pac-12 media rights blunder as well as anyone.

“ESPN and the Pac-12 are having no substantive talks at this time, according to sources,” Marchand writes. “ESPN passed on the Big Ten, Sunday Ticket, Premier League, Champions League, and MLS, so the idea that it will be completely out on the Pac-12 is not in the least bit surprising. Things can always change, and maybe the Pac-12 can figure out a creative way to get ESPN involved, but right now that seems very unlikely.”

This is the latest in a long list of bad news and reports from Pac-12 Country. Also this week, the Washington State President froze “all current and future vacation positions”, plus “a pause on non-essential travel, purchases & new professional development” because of “significant decrease in Pac-12 revenue distribution as result of overpayments from one of the conference media partners that must be resolved. Relocation of the Pac‑12 headquarters out of San Francisco exceeded budget projections as well. Additionally, WSU projects that Cougar Athletics exceeded its expenditures for the year due to inadequate documentation of revenues and expenses.“

Needless to say, the Pac-12 has had itself a brutal week thus far. And to think it’s only Tuesday.

 

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11 hours ago, bullet said:

Decided to go all the way back to 1936.  All the AP titles:

()-not part of top 20 programs over last 55 years
2024 SEC AP titles 1936-2022
Alabama 13  
Oklahoma 7  
Texas 3  
Florida 3  
LSU 3  
Georgia 3  
Tennessee 2  
Auburn 2  
(Texas A&M) 1  
    37
2024 Big 10    
Ohio St. 5  
USC 5  
Nebraska 4  
Penn St. 2  
Michigan 2  
(Minesota) 4  
(Michigan St.) 1  
(Maryland) 1  
    24
Potential Big 10/SEC  
Notre Dame 8  
Miami 5  
Florida St. 3  
Clemson 3  
Colorado 1  
Oregon 0  
Washington 0  
    20
Others    
(Pitt) 2  
(Army) 2  
(TCU) 1  
(Syracuse) 1  
(BYU) 1  
    7

That format makes it very clear.  Out of 120+ FBS schools, only 30 have won at least a share of an AP or Coaches poll title.

Only 20 have won multiple national titles.

Only 7 have won five or more national titles: Bama, ND, USC, OU, OSU, Miami, Nebraska.

//

The other thing that really jumps out is what Saban has done.  Bama had seven titles before he got there.  If you add in the coaches poll split titles, Bama was one behind ND, tied with USC and OU at 7, and one ahead of OSU, which had 6.  

In 15 years, Saban has put Bama in a place where they have almost doubled their closest competitors.  Incredible.

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41 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Pretty sure nobody cares there, our beef is more with the Vanderbilts and Purdues of the world, contributing far less to their conferences than ISU or OKST, but raking in all that fucking money same as Ohio State. That concept alone is why I'll continue to rail on the absurdity of realignment as it's occurred.

I do think that a performance based model makes the most sense long term. If one of your schools goes to the playoffs, that should not benefit the last place school in your league to an equal degree that it does the playoff team.

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19 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So basically the TV money will still be split evenly, but if a team makes it to the playoff in football or does well in the NCAA tournament, that team will get more of the money from that postseason.  It seems fair, but unlikely to make a big difference for any of the schools.  I wonder how much the payout for playoff games vs. NCAA tournament games differs?

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Pretty sure nobody cares there, our beef is more with the Vanderbilts and Purdues of the world, contributing far less to their conferences than ISU or OKST, but raking in all that fucking money same as Ohio State. That concept alone is why I'll continue to rail on the absurdity of realignment as it's occurred.

Okie Lite and ISU have been stealing money for about a century and you guys should be counting your blessings. Instead, you are angry that someone else has carried on their grift more successfully than you bumpkins. If nothing else, Pudue is a globally elite Engineering/STEM institution, and Vandy is Vandy, and an Okie Lite diploma lets you park in handicap spaces. Be gone. 

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25 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

So basically the TV money will still be split evenly, but if a team makes it to the playoff in football or does well in the NCAA tournament, that team will get more of the money from that postseason.  It seems fair, but unlikely to make a big difference for any of the schools.  I wonder how much the payout for playoff games vs. NCAA tournament games differs?

Let's say FSU gets another 5M, 7M or even 10M in a given year....that doesn't come anywhere close to making a dent in the difference to what UF is bringing in for their Ath Dept. 

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7 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

Okie Lite and ISU have been stealing money for about a century and you guys should be counting your blessings. Instead, you are angry that someone else has carried on their grift more successfully than you bumpkins. If nothing else, Pudue is a globally elite Engineering/STEM institution, and Vandy is Vandy, and an Okie Lite diploma lets you park in handicap spaces. Be gone. 

Lol, cool story bro.

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32 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

So basically the TV money will still be split evenly, but if a team makes it to the playoff in football or does well in the NCAA tournament, that team will get more of the money from that postseason.  It seems fair, but unlikely to make a big difference for any of the schools.  I wonder how much the payout for playoff games vs. NCAA tournament games differs?

yeah its the only money that's new too with the CFP playoff changes occurring.   The NCAA money is nice, but no where near the same value.

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29 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

Okie Lite and ISU have been stealing money for about a century and you guys should be counting your blessings. Instead, you are angry that someone else has carried on their grift more successfully than you bumpkins. If nothing else, Pudue is a globally elite Engineering/STEM institution, and Vandy is Vandy, and an Okie Lite diploma lets you park in handicap spaces. Be gone. 

 

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17 hours ago, VoteforHank said:

Exactly. Which B12 matchup will be a national draw? Tell me please. 

I can only speak to it regionally. Any ranked Big 12 matchup should could get a pretty good number in Texas and Oklahoma. I know I'll be watching. 

I doubt the Coasts and Chicago will give a shit, but hey they never did unless it was Texas - OU. 

Outside of ranked games, I'd be interested in following games : 

BYU - Baylor. Both really weird schools that shotgun caffeine free Dr. Pepper at tailgates. 

K State - Kansas. Decent rivalry for flyover country. 

Tech - TCU. The Battle for the Vacant Corner Office. 

Iowa State - Okie State. Surly Realignment Thread Blood Feud. 

Cincy - UCF. The Happy To Be Here Bowl. 

I guess TCU - Baylor if the Bears get good again. Usually a competitive game. 

Coug High vs... Nope I just can't get there. 

 

That is pretty dismal. Yet some in the thread will argue it's better than the ACC. 

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21 hours ago, CustersDoctor said:

You can act like the Tech game isn't a big deal but the years that they play in Austin it's the biggest home game of the season. Not only is it always a sellout, but there are 10 of thousands of people here in town who don't even have tickets. 

but you just made my argument for me - why is it "the biggest game of the year" and "10K's of people in town" is because it's THEIR superbowl that we had to host every other year

despite how they treated us when we went out there vs. the hospitality they receive in austin, i would have felt *some* sympathy for them but the way they did The Pirate sealed their fate

that and acting like the jabillion holding non-calls in 08 didn't happen,, and oh yeah the vet school that we backed and aggy cockblocked

we did our time with tceh

they can hang w/ oSu and add las cruces to their schedule

the tceh game in austin is no bigger or lesser than rape, oSu, kstate or roach

good riddance to all

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