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2022 Tropical Storm and Hurricane Thread


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18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Updated.

These weather models do what they almost always predict for a Texas landfall.    They show it going towards Corpus and then, never mind going to Houston/SE Texas to where South Texas and up the Hill Country are on the dry side and it gets super hot thanks to this   And Houston gets 15 inches of rain....  There is a reason south of Port O Connor, landfalling tropical systems are as common as many think.  

Edited by Nueces River Rat
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Yeah, I don't think anyone here is set on an Austin big rain event, and you're right... the huge majority of these early-season Gulf-forming storms almost always go NE there are sound reasons for that, too, nagonnatellemherenow.  The only reason why this one could is that the frontal boundary that's now more or less burnt out NW of the storm might still have enough juice to draw it in and interact.

But this storm was originally forecast to be a coast-hugger, so nothing is that out of whack with the models.  If it gets enough mass it could bully its way NW ward as well, but dunno.  Since the front broke up the high ridge which would normally chew this thing up and spit it out, and the high isn't re-settled yet, there's a tinker's chance.

But right now it's pretty much a coin toss.

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1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.

image.png.70f9c3f7a833425a000180000df1e0b4.png

Need that baby to make a hard turn north right near the southern tip of Baja and ride up through the desert and eventually dump .10" rain on us.  

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  • 5 weeks later...
4 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Here is some "Way-too-early-to-get-excited" wishful thinking from the GFS

image.png.18385ffeabe7f93608672fb50a976b70.png

Yeah, the ol' go into Houston/New Orleans so Austin gets hotter and drier special. Why would we get excited about that?

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There is finally a little something to talk about.  Some models show this moving more west later if it survives the next few days.  It's just something to keep an eye out for now.

two_atl_2d0.png

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear 
generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the 
eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression 
could form around the middle to latter part of this week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin
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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

giphy.gif

Be careful what you ask for, knowing the timeline that we're in.  Are we much more likely to get a massive storm that fucks up Matagorda to New Orleans, and only drops a shitload of rain right where we don't need it, also causing airflow to make all points west of there get up to 110 degrees?  Yes, yes we are.  Pay attention to how shit is going.

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Cross-posted in 3 threads:

The weather pattern has absolutely begun to change.  As in seasonal.  We might get heat/dry back, but this ain't no 1 day reprieve.  This is a huge shift.  It doesn't mean the  end of summer, but it might be very difficult to return to it like it's been.

Rain for most of us starting tomorrow, good daily chances for at least next 7 days if not longer.
Temps are gonna go down a good bit somewhere low-mid 90's most days.  We might not even hit 90 Friday and somewhere within a few days after.
The "Gulf thing" (tropics) will help enhance rain chances and moderate temps, even if it doesn't spin up.  This one will affect CenTex more than the thing yesterday.

Yes, Virginia, summer as we've known it is over, at least for now and waaay into next week.  We'll see what September has to say about it.

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