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2023 Texas Baseball


Fletch

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6 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

What’s a successful postseason for this team? Obviously Omaha is the goal but be realistic with yourself. After the crap we saw in February and at Fullerton, winning a road regional would be pretty satisfying in my mind and I’d let the chips fall where they may in a super. Not where I want this program to be long term but it would feel like a small step in the right direction considering the turnover all over the place after last year.

Yeah making it to the supers seems like our ceiling but it’s baseball. Weirder things have happened than a team like this making an Omaha run.

So yeah, making it to the supers or pulling a 2017 and being competitive in the regionals would be a success I guess. But fuck all that. Omaha or busts, mother fuckers 

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Just now, Fletch said:

Yeah making it to the supers seems like our ceiling but it’s baseball. Weirder things have happened than a team like this making an Omaha run.

So yeah, making it to the supers or pulling a 2017 and being competitive in the regionals would be a success I guess. But fuck all that. Omaha or busts, mother fuckers 


 

Baseball is about streaks 

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17 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

What’s a successful postseason for this team? Obviously Omaha is the goal always and would be great but be realistic with yourself. After the crap we saw in February and at Fullerton, winning a road regional would be pretty satisfying in my mind and I’d let the chips fall where they may in a super. Not where I want this program to be long term but it would feel like a small step in the right direction considering the turnover all over the place after last year.

Do you want your answer or my answer?

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17 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You have a dream spot for this team. I assume you’re under 30. I admire it it was me on HornFans arguing @Slacks 

This team is a travel 2.  

Ha, not quite.

This team has shown they can compete with just about anyone and lose to just about anyone. Nothing would surprise me next weekend, but I do think winning a road regional would be a solid year considering expectations and where this team started. Easier said than done.

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We will be about as good a 1-2 punch as anyone. 13th overall in ERA - 5th from P5 conferences. Shaw and Toles availability is very much needed but not critical. Lummus and Whitehead from the left side. Hurley, Sthele, Morehouse and DuPlantier from the right side with Witt as a wildcard.

If we’re hitting, we’re probably a top 20 offense. We have 6 guys hitting over .300. We have 5 with double digit HRs. O’Dowd is hitting .286 with a little pop. The other guys are capable of contributing something. Our OBP and slugging are comparable to top 10-20 teams.

We’re very solid in the field. We may have comparable range as any Texas team in the outfield. The outfield arms and infield for that matter may not be the strongest, but they are accurate and effective.

The talent is not overwhelming, but it’s very solid. Pierce needs to push some of the right buttons particularly with his bullpen selections. The key will be Gordon and LBJ 6 innings at a minimum.

If we don’t win the regional, it’s a disappointing season. It’s tough to hit the road, but we’ve competed well.

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5 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

We will be about as good a 1-2 punch as anyone. 13th overall in ERA - 5th from P5 conferences. Shaw and Toles availability is very much needed but not critical. Lummus and Whitehead from the left side. Hurley, Sthele, Morehouse and DuPlantier from the right side with Witt as a wildcard.

If we’re hitting, we’re probably a top 20 offense. We have 6 guys hitting over .300. We have 5 with double digit HRs. O’Dowd is hitting .286 with a little pop. The other guys are capable of contributing something. Our OBP and slugging are comparable to top 10-20 teams.

We’re very solid in the field. We may have comparable range as any Texas team in the outfield. The outfield arms and infield for that matter may not be the strongest, but they are accurate and effective.

The talent is not overwhelming, but it’s very solid. Pierce needs to push some of the right buttons particularly with his bullpen selections. The key will be Gordon and LBJ 6 innings at a minimum.

If we don’t win the regional, it’s a disappointing season. It’s tough to hit the road, but we’ve competed well.

Pretty much agree with all of this. We aren’t outstanding in anything, but are good to pretty good in a lot of areas.

I *think* Stanford might be a decent matchup for us because they aren’t super strong on the mound outside of their top few guys (have a team ERA of 6). They can swing it though.

My regional preferences for us would probably be:

1. Indiana State/DBU

2. Auburn

3. Stanford 

4. Miami 

5-13. Everywhere else 

14. LSU

15. Arkansas

16. Wake Forest

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3 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

Pretty much agree with all of this. We aren’t outstanding in anything, but are good to pretty good in a lot of areas.

I *think* Stanford might be a decent matchup for us because they aren’t super strong on the mound outside of their top few guys (have a team ERA of 6). They can swing it though.

My regional preferences for us would probably be:

1. Indiana State/DBU

2. Auburn

3. Stanford 

4. Miami 

5-13. Everywhere else 

14. LSU

15. Arkansas

16. Wake Forest

I really don’t understand Auburn hosting, way too much recency bias from all of these sites projecting.

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30 minutes ago, chase25 said:

I really don’t understand Auburn hosting, way too much recency bias from all of these sites projecting.

I think 17 wins in the SEC has historically always hosted so that’s what they are going off of. Top 20 RPI too. They certainly aren’t super scary though and it’s not an intimidating environment.

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6 hours ago, Hookem2147 said:

What’s a successful postseason for this team? Obviously Omaha is the goal always and would be great but be realistic with yourself. After the crap we saw in February and at Fullerton, winning a road regional would be pretty satisfying in my mind and I’d let the chips fall where they may in a super. Not where I want this program to be long term but it would feel like a small step in the right direction considering the turnover all over the place after last year.

Yea I think considering the turnover and the holes in this roster, being competitive in a super would be great to see. 
The tough part for me is I don’t see how we get better next year. Where are the arms?

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2 minutes ago, chase25 said:

34 walks in 82.1 innings isn’t bad if you are coupling it with 104 strikeouts 

That’s fair. My concern was more that he has 3 games with 4 or more walks. 

Maybe he’s a reliever here but I don’t see those numbers as someone who can start for us

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41 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Yea I think considering the turnover and the holes in this roster, being competitive in a super would be great to see. 
The tough part for me is I don’t see how we get better next year. Where are the arms?

Freshman class of arms is better than anything we’ve brought in over the last few years. Probably not any immediate weekend starters but most of them should be bullpen depth at worse. But you are correct, there are big question marks in the rotation. We will probably need at least 2 weekend starters out of the portal. We have a juco pitcher committed from San Jac who should immediately be a backend bullpen arm. Need to get him to campus.

The interesting thing is every pitcher has eligibility remaining. Let’s just assume Witt, Gordon and LBJ are gone. Does someone like Tole want to come back for a victory lap? Will Shaw be healthy? Is Hurley a starter or reliever?Does Whitehead take up pitching full time? Does someone who has flashed like Minchey take the next step. What happens with Duplantier, Sthele and Morehouse? Also have Luke Harrison coming back off Tommy John. 

They have quite a bit to sort out after the season. But the need for starting pitching is clear. 

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There is generally a shortage of top flight starters this year so getting proven guys out of the portal for next year will be difficult for everyone. You’d hope to get 1 but you’d be incredibly lucky to get two. You would think Texas is a destination school but who knows who’d money whip that big time arm.

Of the top 20 guys in ERA, 12 are juniors or seniors. Only 1 of the 8 is from a big school - Wake. He’s probably penciled as their #1 next year. I don’t see why he’d transfer even more so if they play into late June.

The truth of the matter is that a Sthele or a Morehouse have better upsides than most guys out there. They’ve also flashed that potential on more than one occasion. Minchey could be a guy next year. We’re overdue for frosh to be productive on the mound.

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22 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

There is generally a shortage of top flight starters this year so getting proven guys out of the portal for next year will be difficult for everyone. You’d hope to get 1 but you’d be incredibly lucky to get two. You would think Texas is a destination school but who knows who’d money whip that big time arm.

Of the top 20 guys in ERA, 12 are juniors or seniors. Only 1 of the 8 is from a big school - Wake. He’s probably penciled as their #1 next year. I don’t see why he’d transfer even more so if they play into late June.

The truth of the matter is that a Sthele or a Morehouse have better upsides than most guys out there. They’ve also flashed that potential on more than one occasion. Minchey could be a guy next year. We’re overdue for frosh to be productive on the mound.

I agree with the sentiment that pitching is just down overall across the board (saw a stat the other day that the league ERA in the SEC is above 5.00 for the first time ever and has increased like 8 years in a row).

With that being said, there will still be productive guys in the portal looking to level up (dudes from the Big Ten or WAC or whatever who had 3.75 ERA’s as freshman or sophomores). K-State found their Friday night guy from the D3 level. The talent will be available, but the demand far exceeds the supply so you have to be aggressive. Everyone needs pitching. 

They need to tell Morehouse and Sthele they are 1-2 inning relievers and to prepare as such. If they think they are still starters then tough conversations might need to be had. I haven’t given up hope for either of them because I think they have something to work with. Let them throw 94-96 in short stints where they don’t feel the need to have to hold back or throw 3 different pitches. Both can overpower a lot of college hitters with their fastballs when they are around the zone.

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D1baseball still has us as a #2 at Stanford. They swapped out UC Santa Barbara for UC Irvine as the 3 seed. UCSB was just swept by Hawaii and is in danger of not making the tournament.

I am a little surprised some of these projections don’t have us matching up with Fullerton again. They won the Big West and are a likely 3 seed.

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2 hours ago, Had Enough said:


That’s now Texas as a 2 at Miami. Paired with Virginia.

In that scenario, we'd face Washington in the first game. Their Friday starter is a big lefty who transferred from Boise. He took an L against us when they played in Austin in 2020.

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On 5/27/2023 at 12:42 PM, Had Enough said:

We will be about as good a 1-2 punch as anyone. 13th overall in ERA - 5th from P5 conferences. Shaw and Toles availability is very much needed but not critical. Lummus and Whitehead from the left side. Hurley, Sthele, Morehouse and DuPlantier from the right side with Witt as a wildcard.

If we’re hitting, we’re probably a top 20 offense. We have 6 guys hitting over .300. We have 5 with double digit HRs. O’Dowd is hitting .286 with a little pop. The other guys are capable of contributing something. Our OBP and slugging are comparable to top 10-20 teams.

We’re very solid in the field. We may have comparable range as any Texas team in the outfield. The outfield arms and infield for that matter may not be the strongest, but they are accurate and effective.

The talent is not overwhelming, but it’s very solid. Pierce needs to push some of the right buttons particularly with his bullpen selections. The key will be Gordon and LBJ 6 innings at a minimum.

If we don’t win the regional, it’s a disappointing season. It’s tough to hit the road, but we’ve competed well.

100% 

 

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16 minutes ago, tejas60 said:

D1Baseball has us the 2 seed at Miami playing against #3 USC. #4 is Army

another I saw has us the 2 seed at Stanford playing #3 UC-Irvine. #4 is San Jose State

BA update had us in Nashville. We'll see soon enough.

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Just now, chase25 said:

Not necessarily 2023 related but due to Kansas State missing the tournament you may see some jump ship. The staff needs to be all over Tyson Neighbors if he enters the portal, from Royse City, Texas.

I don’t think Neighbors holds this program in the best regard, to put it mildly lol.

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4 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I don’t think Neighbors holds this program in the best regard, to put it mildly lol.

What did he say?

Usually doesn’t matter at the end of the day, we’ve seen Aggies play here. People make decisions that are best for them. 

Gage Boehm is committed to Texas.

Garet Boehm is committed to Texas Tech

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14 minutes ago, chase25 said:

What did he say?

Usually doesn’t matter at the end of the day, we’ve seen Aggies play here. People make decisions that are best for them. 

Gage Boehm is committed to Texas.

Garet Boehm is committed to Texas Tech

I thought I remember seeing/reading something that he carries a little chip on his shoulder for the Texas schools that didn’t recruit him as hard coming out of HS. Maybe he’s over it but he would have every team in the country knocking on his door if he entered the portal. He’d be smart to do so because he can’t accomplishing much more at Kansas State.

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4 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

I thought I remember seeing/reading something that he carries a little chip on his shoulder for the Texas schools that didn’t recruit him as hard coming out of HS. Maybe he’s over it but he would have every team in the country knocking on his door if he entered the portal. He’d be smart to do so because he can’t accomplishing much more at Kansas State.

Pretty much the story for every Texas kid not recruited by Texas out of high school. Hopefully he is over it and we can find a way to get him here. 

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Roster outlook update (portal officially open)

-Removed Burke

-Added some projected portal needs

Side note: Remembered that the NCAA passed a rule in March allowing rosters to expand to 40 players in 2024. We currently have 37 guys on the roster if you remove Burke. 2 guys will have no eligibility after the season (Kennedy and Carlson) and we will probably lose at least 5-7 current guys to the draft. Our incoming signing class will be 17 at most (no Gasparino or Sykora) but could dwindle down to 15 or 16 if we lose more guys. All this means we will likely need need to see 8-10 guys portal out/medically retire/start in the real world to leave enough room to navigate the portal/juco ranks.

Spoiler

Pitchers

*=guys who graduated this year. Guys who already graduated might be more likely to move on (via portal, moving on to the real world, pro ball, etc)

Out of eligibility (0): None

Likely gone to the draft (3): RHP Tanner Witt, LHP Lucas Gordon, RHP Lebarron Johnson

Draft eligible, but probably not a huge risk (5): RHP Charlie Hurley, RHP Zane Morehouse*, RHP Travis Sthele, RHP Heston Tole, RHP Andre Duplantier*

Draft eligible, basically zero chance (3): LHP Chase Lummus*, LHP Chris Stuart, LHP Sam Walbridge*, 

Not draft eligible (7): LHP David Shaw, RHP Kobe Minchey, RHP Max Grubbs, RHP Pierce George, LHP Ace Whitehead, RHP Cody Howard, RHP Cameron O'Banan

Coming off injury (1): LHP Luke Harrison

Incoming JUCO kids (1): RHP Gage Boehm from San Jac (draft risk, would be a big win to get on campus. Would immediately be a backend reliever)

Incoming HS kids, draft risk (2): RHP Travis Sykora (100% gone), RHP Easton Tumis (probably not a huge risk, but have seen his name pop up)

Incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (6): RHP Cole Selvig, RHP Hayden Morris, RHP Hudson Hamilton, RHP Evan Miranda, RHP George Zaharias, RHP Matt Zatopek. First 4 names are all guys who should be able to throw some innings out of the pen next year as they get their feet wet.

Portal commits: TBD

Portal Needs: 2 weekend starters, 2-3 relievers, lefty specialist if Shaw's injury is significant

Hitters

Out of eligibility (2): OF Eric Kennedy, INF Tanner Carlson*

Likely gone to the draft (1): OF Dylan Campbell

Draft eligible, might go either way (3): 3B Peyton Powell (1 healthy season, does he have the arm to stick at 3B at the next level?), OF Porter Brown* (already old, defensive question marks, has had 1 good year), C Garret Guillemette (Some questions defensively, but beginning to think the bat is going to get him picked. Catcher is a premium position)

Draft eligible, but not a huge risk (1): 2B Jack O'Dowd

Draft eligible, basically zero chance (2): INF Mitchell Daly, 1B Cam Constantine*, C Preston Hoffart (walk-on)*

Not draft eligible (7): INF/OF Jayden Duplantier, INF Jalin Flores, C Rylan Galvan, OF Max Belyeu, 1B Jared Thomas, INF Cade O'Hara, C Grant Fahrlander (walk-on)

Coming off injury (1): C Kimble Schuessler

Incoming JUCO kids (0): None

Incoming HS kids, draft risk (3): OF Will Gasparino (98% likely gone), 3B Casey Borba (don't think he had the best senior year but was getting some buzz before the year), C Nik Sanders (tools for days, 5 years ago he is definitely gone but he might be someone who sneaks through the draft)

Incoming HS kids, minimal draft risk (7): MIF/OF Dondreone Kennedy, C Oliver Service, MIF Sam Ardoin (Silas' little brother, damn good player), MIF Lane Allen, 3B Ean Czech (brother of the softball player), OF Blake Peterson (Austin Westlake), 1B MJ Sweeney (son of Mike Sweeney). Ardoin, Sweeney and Kennedy can hit. Could find some playing time as freshman. Service is a wildcard. Plays HS ball in Michigan against awful competition but absolutely dominated.

Portal commits(1): OF Seth Werchan (walk-on, from Austin. Started 100 games for Penn but isn't a hitter. Defense and speed. Will be a backup for us but he likes to make fun of the Aggies so he's fine in my book).

Portal Needs: 1-2 OF, 3B if Powell doesn't return and Borba doesn't make it to campus, potentially SS if they want to move Flores back to 3B

 

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I see us as just needing 2 weekend SP and 2 OF if things go as expected.  The 2 OF should be pretty easy to get but the market for quality SP is thin, so that could be a big ask.  If they just get one then the lineup should still be good enough to carry them to at least the regional but if they get 2 then the sky is the limit.

My current guess of a list of who will contribute:

Catcher: Galvan, Schuessler, Sanders

IF: Thomas, O’Dowd, Flores, Powell, Daly, Borba, Ardoin, Kennedy

OF: Sweeney, Duplantier, TBD, TBD

SP: TBD, TBD, Hurley, Morehouse, Sthele, Harrison

RP: Whitehead, Duplantier, Tole, Lummus, Stuart, Shaw, Boehm, others

I expect the bullpen and infield to be excellent.  SP and OF will determine how good we are.

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32 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I see us as just needing 2 weekend SP and 2 OF if things go as expected.  The 2 OF should be pretty easy to get but the market for quality SP is thin, so that could be a big ask.  If they just get one then the lineup should still be good enough to carry them to at least the regional but if they get 2 then the sky is the limit.

My current guess of a list of who will contribute:

Catcher: Galvan, Schuessler, Sanders

IF: Thomas, O’Dowd, Flores, Powell, Daly, Borba, Ardoin, Kennedy

OF: Sweeney, Duplantier, TBD, TBD

SP: TBD, TBD, Hurley, Morehouse, Sthele, Harrison

RP: Whitehead, Duplantier, Tole, Lummus, Stuart, Shaw, Boehm, others

I expect the bullpen and infield to be excellent.  SP and OF will determine how good we are.

Good stuff. Agree that 2 SP and 2 OF should be the primary focus. Then at that point it's best players available with a focus on the mound. A few things I would add:

-I believe MJ Sweeney is a 1B all the way. 6'8 250. Don't think you want him patrolling the OF. Dude can hit though. Really good swing and obviously has the bloodlines.

-Borba is going to be a huge draft sweat but if he makes it to campus he is probably a day 1 starter.

-They really need to convince two of Powell, Brown and Guillemette to return. If they do that then things start looking pretty good.

-No inside info, but it's hard to envision Daly being on the roster next year. It's probably time for both parties to go their separate ways.

-If it was up to me, I would work Harrison back as a reliever which is where he was pretty good as a freshman. If he comes back healthy and Boehm makes it to campus, things start looking better with this group of relievers. I'm not sleeping on Minchey either. He has the stuff.

-Several freshman with good stuff that I expect to carve out roles as relievers (Morris, Selvig, Miranda, Tumis).

Edited by Hookem2147
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8 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I see us as just needing 2 weekend SP and 2 OF if things go as expected.  The 2 OF should be pretty easy to get but the market for quality SP is thin, so that could be a big ask.  If they just get one then the lineup should still be good enough to carry them to at least the regional but if they get 2 then the sky is the limit.

My current guess of a list of who will contribute:

Catcher: Galvan, Schuessler, Sanders

IF: Thomas, O’Dowd, Flores, Powell, Daly, Borba, Ardoin, Kennedy

OF: Sweeney, Duplantier, TBD, TBD

SP: TBD, TBD, Hurley, Morehouse, Sthele, Harrison

RP: Whitehead, Duplantier, Tole, Lummus, Stuart, Shaw, Boehm, others

I expect the bullpen and infield to be excellent.  SP and OF will determine how good we are.

Good stuff.

@Hookem2147 Correct me if I am wrong, but Thomas likely factors in the OF moving forward, yes? He only played at first this year because Kash transferred, right?

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9 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Good stuff.

@Hookem2147 Correct me if I am wrong, but Thomas likely factors in the OF moving forward, yes? He only played at first this year because Kash transferred, right?

He played some OF in HS, yeah. He's really taken a step forward defensively so I'm not so sure I would move him off of 1B unless absolutely necessary. We don't really have a true 1B coming in this class outside of Sweeney. 1B is a hard position to get locked down from an offensive and defensive standpoint.

Maybe if Guillemette returns they will rep Galvan some at 1B? Something that has crossed my mind. At that point maybe you give Thomas some reps in RF.

I would head into the offseason with the plan of Thomas playing 1B in 2024 and then adjust as necessary. 

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Scanning through the roster right now. Here are maybe some guys who could be moving on after the season: Daly, Walbridge (graduated), Lummus (graduated), Stuart (never found a role here), Constantine (graduated), Duplantier (graduated), O'Banan, Pierce George.

That is 8 right there, several of which it is pretty obvious would never play here. I also look at guys like Sthele and Morehouse. Morehouse graduated this year. Could one or both of them be wanting to look somewhere where they can be a starter? I would love to have both back in a bullpen role but just thinking out loud.

Like I said yesterday, we probably need 8-10 departures (not draft related) to leave the roster with some wiggle room.

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Plugged in baseball poster on IT said the coaches are getting a lot of early interest from this first portal wave. Mentioned that a donor is matching baseball donations to the Texas One Fund up to $100k through the end of the season.

Edited by Hookem2147
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We obviously know he is good, but I think Gordon is having one of the more under-appreciated years when it comes to a Friday night Texas guy. Maybe we were just so spoiled with some of the previous ones. But Gordon's numbers stack up with some of the best.

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1 hour ago, Hookem2147 said:

We obviously know he is good, but I think Gordon is having one of the more under-appreciated years when it comes to a Friday night Texas guy. Maybe we were just so spoiled with some of the previous ones. But Gordon's numbers stack up with some of the best.

No help against Arky, OU, SJSU, KU (neutral). 13 or 14 quality starts out of 16. 
 

I can’t pin down why he isn’t more appreciated, especially considering he filled in wonderfully on a Friday spot that he wasn’t supposed to be in his career path, if not for the Witt injury. He doesn’t have power stuff, but neither did other recent more heralded guys. He doesn’t really have any starts you can point back to as major marquee wins besides WV this year, if you want to count that. TCU and ECU last year went to the relievers. A&M game hurts a lot

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