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2022 Volleyball - Stacked as Hell


Js1

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

I continue not to envy Elliot at all, because he's going to have to make some hard calls regarding fan favorites (Molly) if he wants to get Logan a ring before she's gone. 

  • Logan 6 rotations, she can't leave the court ever
  • Parra 4 rotations - 3 along the front and serving (Halter for her other 2 backrow rotations).  Her serve is valuable (2 aces to close to set 3) and she really does have some creative shots in her arsenal and hits a really heavy ball.  She's a bit of a blocking liability, but she can be subbed for a bigger block with Devin. 
  • Skinner on the RS - she just hits better from that position.  I know she came in wanting to be a left side hitter, but it's just not her game (yet).  The opportunity to slide over in 2023 exists when Logan is gone, she just needs to wait.  She's a bit of a liability in serve receive, so I'd continue to have Akana sub for her in the backrow.  At least Akana gets you some aces and really nice digs and can set when SKT takes the first contact, because she's also a bit of a liability in serve receive too. 
  • Caffey and O'Neal in the middle.  You give up some height on the block, but Caffey is damn athletic and better offensively.  She had 118 blocks at Nebraska, she can do it. But it's truly hard to sit such an explosives offensive weapon just for Bergmark's block. 

We all love Molly Green Giant, but she has options galore - 2 more years here and can slide to the middle if O'Neal leave (her and Bergmark/Singletary) or move to the RS if she beats out Devin (if Madi moves to the outside with Parra in 2023). 

At this point, you put your best offensive players on the floor (Logan, Parra, Madi, Caffey, O'Neal) and let your floor defense cover up the less than stellar block.  Because we actually have a floor defense that can cover for a smaller block. 

And let's be real - our B team is still better than 80% of the Big 12.  There's playing time galore for Molly and Bella and even Devin when we face teams like Tech, TCU, Kansas State, OU, ISU and WV.  Outside of Baylor and Kansas, the rest of the Big 12 is meh.  Texas, KU, Baylor and Tech are all projected to finish the season in the top 35 of the RPI.  Then everyone else is 50 or below (OU 51, Kansas State 54, ISU 77, TCU 137, WV 136) 

Elliot fancies himself a savant, wants our program to be big business and the money/power that drives. He should prove that he can manage it all, i've hated his excuses in the past and don't care to hear them this year. What I thought last night proved, we need SKT to not have a bad game vs. anyone good. She was fantastic down the stretch last night.

Pending outcome in Lubbock, i'll replay this match in our house all weekend long. Winning is fun.

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2 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

I’m surprised that KU gym met regulations. Our servers literally had their backs against the wall preparing to serve 

GT plays in a place that would cause some 6A schools to be embarrassed for them 

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6 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

I’m surprised that KU gym met regulations. Our servers literally had their backs against the wall preparing to serve 

 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GT plays in a place that would cause some 6A schools to be embarrassed for them 

I love the home court advantage these vb only facilities build, reason I go mad when Elliot talks about playing in bigger arenas. I know, old man yelling at clouds but regular season college vb still feels like a college-amateur sport. I hope it remains as long as possible. 

El pato quoting Stanford as a rowdy crowd is comical, maybe for water polo but Stanford is a great place to take a nap during games. 

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1 minute ago, Goodman said:

 

I love the home court advantage these vb only facilities build, reason I go mad when Elliot talks about playing in bigger arenas. I know, old man yelling at clouds but regular season college vb still feels like a college-amateur sport. I hope it remains as long as possible. 

El pato quoting Stanford as a rowdy crowd is comical, maybe for water polo but Stanford is a great place to take a nap during games. 

Elliot has talked about maybe doing ONE match in Moody and the very small potential option of trying to break that NCAA record that Florida @ Wisconsin set by playing in Dallas the Friday night before the Texas-OU Game. 

However, OU (currently very much) sucks and won't help draw that kind of crowd.  Nebraska would, but they won't travel to play Texas in Dallas in October during the middle of B1G play.  The whole idea is that when OU is good again, Texas/OU on the Friday night in Dallas prior to the game could draw that kind of crowd.  

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Minnesota got swept on the road at Purdue tonight. 

Kinda would love if Jenna Wenaas decided to come back to Texas for her final couple seasons. She’s classified as a sophomore even though she’s in her third season. 

Jenna has a great all-around game, but we're bringing in a lot of pin hitters with height next year, so it'll be interesting to see who will have the most impact with the other returning pin hitters.

6'2 OH/Opp - Skinner (Jr)

5'11 OH- Parra (Jr)

6'4 OH/Opp -Kahahawai (So)

6'0 OH - Miller (So)

6'4 OH/Opp - Byrd (Fr)

6'4 OH - Helmers (Fr)

6'5 Lefty Opp - Tomkinson (Fr)

I'm hoping the sand Vball season in the spring and then summer training will develop some of them into complete 6-rotation players for next year.  Most likely candidates in my mind are Skinner, Parra, and Kahahawai. 

 

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7 hours ago, TexasDPT said:

Jenna has a great all-around game, but we're bringing in a lot of pin hitters with height next year, so it'll be interesting to see who will have the most impact with the other returning pin hitters.

 

If Wenaas called up Elliot, he’d take her. He’s made it perfectly clear you get players from the portal if they upgrade your team. 

It’s just my wishcasting because I find McCutcheon overrated and he’s wasting talent like Landfair and Wenaas with this terrible serving he’s subjecting them to with Shaffmaster. 

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4 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

Who started on the right side and in the middle for the OU match? 

Parra was first server. O'Neal/Bergmark were the middles the entire match. Skinner played the right side for the match. 

There were times when Parra and Skinner wouldn't switch depending on the rotation, but Parra definitely played left pin and Skinner definitely played right side, even if during some rotations it didn't look like it. 

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Just now, Rickylovesweed said:

What's the reasoning for why Bergmark is still starting over Caffey? A better block? 

 

I don't have any real insight into why Elliott makes any of the decisions he does. I'd personally choose Caffey over Bergmark, and I like Bergmark. 

I'm assuming he gets an opportunity to see something in practice I don't get to see. 

Based on what I've seen so far this season, Texas is pretty poor at blocking overall. Obviously missing Brione Butler. Who could have predicted that? I think they're ranked 158th in the nation in blocks per set. So yeah. Not good at blocking. So if the blocking is that mediocre, you can either go with Bergmark to help better it - even though I haven't seen any in game evidence to show that's happening - or lean in on the blocking not being a team strength and go for the better offensive option.

That said, Bergmark looked good on the quick attack and the slide against OU. Real good.

But that's the issue with the Big 12 this year compared to the B1G or the ACC. KU and Baylor are the only teams with a realistic chance at making the Sweet Sixteen, and neither one of them have much hope of making it past that. Texas Tech is okay. Everyone else will be fortunate to make the tournament as outside the top 50 RPI. This is the best OU team I've seen in a while, but they're young. They're not making the tournament this year. 

So whatever the Texas players are doing against the Big 12 competition, they're not even tournament worthy teams. It's hard for me to determine what that means when Texas makes the Sweet Sixteen and beyond. 

But Caffey was a difference maker IMO against KU. I don't know. I just kind of go with whatever Elliott is going to throw out there. It's interesting to see what he's doing with Parra and Skinner. To me the main thing is the backcourt anyway. If Fleck, Halter, and Akana are being strong in serve receive Texas is going to be really hard to beat in 5 sets, because they'll constantly be siding opponents out. That was the problem versus KU in the first two sets. The first set they only sided out KU at a 48% clip, then 58%, 68%, 68% and a whopping 100% in the decisive 5th set. 

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41 minutes ago, Rickylovesweed said:

What's the reasoning for why Bergmark is still starting over Caffey? A better block? 

 

Bergmark and Caffey are putting up similar blocks/set numbers (0.80 and 0.76, respectively). However, block touches (BT) are equally as important.

According to Vollymetrics, Bergmark has an 8.4% BT and Caffey is at 5.1%, and Bergmark has a slightly better good touch percentage (45.6% compared to 45%). 

If they are using these metrics as well as attack % (0.384 for Bella; 0.378 for Caffey), Bella is statistically performing better. I'm sure they are also using practice statistics which we aren't privy to. 

But it does seem like Caffey is being inserted into the line-up when Bella struggles offensively, so I'm not sure how reliable those numbers are. Personally, I would like to see Caffey in the starting line-up because her offense will be reliable regardless of the opponent. She just needs more in-game reps IMO. 

 

Edited by TexasDPT
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On 9/22/2022 at 3:50 PM, Rickylovesweed said:

I don't think there are any tough decisions. 

As a volleyball novice, I can even tell that Skinner is much better than Molly and Caffey is much better than Bergmark. These seem like very easy decisions. 

I don't see a big difference between Caffey and Bergmark.  Caffey is certainly the better athlete but she is shorter than Bergmark and likely not quite as effective blocking. I think Bergmark is better on the slide and Caffey is better on the quicks and middle sets in general. 

The thing about Caffey is she can get really heat up and bring some energy when she starts hammering the quicks.  However, against a good blocking team, they will start timing up the block on the quicks which can limit Caffey's offense a bit. 

They both have the strengths and weaknesses and I personally like the energy Caffey brings.  It's nice to have those 2 as options.

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I'm fine putting Bergmark's block on the bench because Fleck, Halter and Akana are bordering on elite defensively in the backrow (Fleck is 100% elite).  Caffey just brings the better energy and bigger offense. 

Against a good blocking team, you can easily substitute Bergmark in. But I'm not convinced a fully charged and ready Caffey is a liabilty.

Caffey in 2021:

Stanford (L) - 12-3-21, .429
Louisville (L) - 2-3-8, -.125
Penn St (W) - 9-5-19, .211
Purdue (W) - 14-1-21, .619
Wisconsin (L) - 8-2-16, .375
Minnesota (L) - 11-4-25, .280
Ohio State (L) - 4-2-12, .167
Penn St. (W) - 7-0-11, .636
Wisconsin (L) - 7-3-19, .211
Purdue (W) - 13-0-20, .650
Texas (W) - 7-4-16, .188
Pitt (W) - 10-5-22, .227
Wisconsin (L) - 15-7-30, .267

She gave double digit kills in 6 matches against some stout competition and hit over .375 a bunch of times against some big blocks (Stanford, Purdue, Wisconsin, Penn State)

I think Caffey is better for this team than Bella because our backrow makes up for the lack of block and they're basically even on block touches.

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4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I suppose many of us have an impression of Caffey from her performance last year sending us home that may not be entirely justified in the current circumstances.

 

She was a 2nd team All American. I watched a bunch of Nebraska matches last year. On a Nebraska team that played great defense but struggled to get the ball to the floor (they hit right around .200 for the year) she was a huge bright spot. She also averaged about 1.1 blocks per set. 

Coming into this season there’s no way anyone would suggest Bergmark and Caffey were in the same universe as middle blockers. Frankly, there’s a lot of folks who would take Caffey over O’Neal (I am not one of them).

Of all the positions on the court, I’d argue middle blocker requires the most time with a team to get acclimated, along with setter. If Caffey has come in at the same time as Bergmark I doubt this would be much of a discussion. But she didn’t. She came in right when practices started. 

IMO Caffey has a lot more lateral speed. A higher vertical. She’s more explosive. She has a stronger arm. She has more experience overall. She has WAY more postseason experience, given that she was a starter in a national championship finals while Cal never made the tournament. 

I don’t really care about any of that, if Bergmark is indeed the better option. Unfortunately I don’t think matches against Bug 12 competition is as good a place to determine that as the practice gym. And I don’t have access to the practice gym  

But pretending like anyone may be favoring Caffey because of one performance against Texas last year gives really short shrift to the body of her work. 

I’m just not buying anything my eyes are telling me because the Big 12 is full of teams that will struggle to make the tournament, when all that matters are those four matches from the Sweet Sixteen on. Does Caffey give us the best chance to win those 4? Or does Bergmark? My guess is Caffey, but if Bergmark is outperforming her in practuce, regardless of the reasons, Bergmark should be the choice. 

Same thing with the Parra/Skinner/Phillips conundrum. 

The good news is the setter position was settled definitively. Watching Nebraska and Wisconsin muddle through with their confused setter situations makes me very grateful we’re not trotting our some kind of 6-2 abortion. 

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23 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

 

She was a 2nd team All American. I watched a bunch of Nebraska matches last year. On a Nebraska team that played great defense but struggled to get the ball to the floor (they hit right around .200 for the year) she was a huge bright spot. She also averaged about 1.1 blocks per set. 

Coming into this season there’s no way anyone would suggest Bergmark and Caffey were in the same universe as middle blockers. Frankly, there’s a lot of folks who would take Caffey over O’Neal (I am not one of them).

Of all the positions on the court, I’d argue middle blocker requires the most time with a team to get acclimated, along with setter. If Caffey has come in at the same time as Bergmark I doubt this would be much of a discussion. But she didn’t. She came in right when practices started. 

IMO Caffey has a lot more lateral speed. A higher vertical. She’s more explosive. She has a stronger arm. She has more experience overall. She has WAY more postseason experience, given that she was a starter in a national championship finals while Cal never made the tournament. 

I don’t really care about any of that, if Bergmark is indeed the better option. Unfortunately I don’t think matches against Bug 12 competition is as good a place to determine that as the practice gym. And I don’t have access to the practice gym  

But pretending like anyone may be favoring Caffey because of one performance against Texas last year gives really short shrift to the body of her work. 

I’m just not buying anything my eyes are telling me because the Big 12 is full of teams that will struggle to make the tournament, when all that matters are those four matches from the Sweet Sixteen on. Does Caffey give us the best chance to win those 4? Or does Bergmark? My guess is Caffey, but if Bergmark is outperforming her in practuce, regardless of the reasons, Bergmark should be the choice. 

Same thing with the Parra/Skinner/Phillips conundrum. 

The good news is the setter position was settled definitively. Watching Nebraska and Wisconsin muddle through with their confused setter situations makes me very grateful we’re not trotting our some kind of 6-2 abortion. 

Yes, by "current circumstances," I meant what seems to be the inherent difficulty of integrating an MB into a system.

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7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Yes, by "current circumstances," I meant what seems to be the inherent difficulty of integrating an MB into a system.

I get that, but you seemed to imply the only information we have to judge her by is how she played against Texas last year. If that's not what you meant, I apologize for misunderstanding. 

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27 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I get that, but you seemed to imply the only information we have to judge her by is how she played against Texas last year. If that's not what you meant, I apologize for misunderstanding. 

That's fair.  I wasn't meaning to imply anything conclusive.  She's a good player; she was pretty impressive at Corn last year, especially against us, or at least that's the way I remember it.  But given the difficulty of integrating an MB, who knows whether it will work out that well here.

You elucidated on the relative merits of her and Bergmark quite well.

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So it just came out the Nebraska full time assistants were having an affair with one another. Jaylen Reyes’ engagement is now apparently off according to his Instagram profile. No word on Kelly Hunter’s marriage. 

I feel like Nebraska and Texas are in some kind of weird tit for tat regarding EVERYTHING about their two programs. 

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Wild night last night with some high level volleyball. 

#7 Minny drops a five setter at home versus Northwestern 
#13 Baylor drops a four setter at ISU (only Baylor's second true road match this season with a handful of neutral site games mixed in)
#6 Ohio State wins a four setter at Michigan, who recently swept PSU on the road

This weekend should also be wild -

#13 Baylor @ (RV) Kansas
#14 Washington @ #9 Stanford
(RV) Washington State @ #9 Stanford
#12 Penn State @ #8 Wisconsin
#2 Louisville @ #11 Georgia Tech
#1 Texas @ Texas Tech (ESPN, holla) 

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Wild night last night with some high level volleyball. 

#7 Minny drops a five setter at home versus Northwestern 
#13 Baylor drops a four setter at ISU (only Baylor's second true road match this season with a handful of neutral site games mixed in)
#6 Ohio State wins a four setter at Michigan, who recently swept PSU on the road

This weekend should also be wild -

#13 Baylor @ (RV) Kansas
#14 Washington @ #9 Stanford
(RV) Washington State @ #9 Stanford
#12 Penn State @ #8 Wisconsin
#2 Louisville @ #11 Georgia Tech
#1 Texas @ Texas Tech (ESPN, holla) 

I’ve honestly given up on Minnesota. Too inconsistent. Someone is going to be unfortunate to get them in their pod. They have the talent to be a Final Four team but they’re not going to even host. I would hate to be a host team and get rewarded with having to play the Gophers to make the Sweet Sixteen. 

Baylor is talented but young. Their combination of a libero who dishes dimes, a smooth freshman setter in Carlsen, and two excellent offensive minded middles in Talbert and Mcghee makes them scary. But they got horrible production from the pins and outside of libero Briseno their pressure on serves was pathetic. Through the first two sets (both won by ISU) their sideout percentage was 77%. The whole match ended up being a sideout fest, with a ton of first ball side outs. Very few rallies. Even when either team scored on serve it tended to be quick. 

KU looked good against OU in Norman. I think they’re more consistent than BU. That’s who I pick for Saturday. 

ISU is running a 6-2, btw. Holthouse had a player of the week type performance. 

Texas Tech solidly best K-State 3-0 in Manhattan yesterday, including a 25-13 beatdown in the 3rd set. I’m interested to see if they get a bigger turnout for the ESPN televised match in United Arena than the 2000 they attracted last year. 

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1 hour ago, Rickylovesweed said:

I don't know much about volleyball but I'm going to guess Baylor is a fraud program. 

Pressley is what made that program in the last couple of years. They look to be regressing back to the mean. 

 

Oh, I don’t buy that at all. McGuire is a good coach who can recruit, and the state of Texas has so much talent you can build a heck of a roster from instate kids, especially when Texas doesn’t go after many. 

They’re going to be very inconsistent this year. They have 5 freshmen who have already played 40 sets or more. 5! That’s a metric fuck ton. 3 of them have already won freshman of the week honors for the Big 12, and Carlsen is going to be a leading contender for national freshman of the year. 

My care factor is pretty low. We’ll have one more year after this one (I feel quite confident Texas will be in the SEC in 2024). 

BYU, UCF, and UH next year is going to transform the conference somewhat in volleyball, as those are all competent to excellent (BYU) volleyball programs. They can all work it out with Kansas as to who is going to rule the roost. But my money would be on the two religious schools duking it out. 

Not my circus, not my monkeys, though. 

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On 9/29/2022 at 1:14 PM, SL Xpress said:

Oh, I don’t buy that at all. McGuire is a good coach who can recruit, and the state of Texas has so much talent you can build a heck of a roster from instate kids, especially when Texas doesn’t go after many. 

They’re going to be very inconsistent this year. They have 5 freshmen who have already played 40 sets or more. 5! That’s a metric fuck ton. 3 of them have already won freshman of the week honors for the Big 12, and Carlsen is going to be a leading contender for national freshman of the year. 

My care factor is pretty low. We’ll have one more year after this one (I feel quite confident Texas will be in the SEC in 2024). 

BYU, UCF, and UH next year is going to transform the conference somewhat in volleyball, as those are all competent to excellent (BYU) volleyball programs. They can all work it out with Kansas as to who is going to rule the roost. But my money would be on the two religious schools duking it out. 

Not my circus, not my monkeys, though. 

  This is true. Go to nationals and it will be littered with Texas squads. Last year on gold medal days my daughter was saying how tired she was of playing the same teams no matter where in the country we went. Indy, KC, Orlando, Vegas, Spokane, Reno, none of it matters. You are going to be playing against a team that's within a few hours of home. 

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Some quick notes on Texas Tech.

If KU and Baylor are the only decent tournament type challenges for Texas remaining in the regular season - and they are - then Tech is probably the third best challenge left. 

They're somewhat tall, with even the libero at 6'. The setter, Reese Rhodes, is 6'1. They have a middle blocker at 6'2 (Brooke Kanas) and an OH at 6'2 (Maddie O'Brien). 

They're ridiculously old. Possibly older than Texas, which is remarkable. Their whole rotation is 2 juniors, 2 seniors, 2 5th years, and a grad student.

They lead the Big 12 in digs. 

Texas is last in blocks per set, btw, in the Big 12. I don't remember that ever happening before. At any point in time in a season. Ever.

Pablo (a computer simulation model developed by a guy named Pablo) gives the probability for a Texas win at 89%. That sounds high, but it's even higher than it sounds. Pablo almost never gives that kind of winning probability with 2 power conference opponents. And Tech at Lubbock is likely the biggest challenge left for this Texas team other than Baylor in Waco.

The keys to a Tech win are getting ahead and siding out Texas AT LEAST 60% of the time. Anything less than 60% and Tech is doomed, because Texas is too good on their end. Because Texas is so good, once they get to 20 with any kind of lead it makes it virtually impossible for the other team to make a comeback, because no one is able to score consistently against Texas when they're serving. So scores of 25-18, 25-19, 25-20 look closer than they really are. When Texas makes set point at 24 and the other team doesn't have at least 20 themselves, there's virtually no chance they're going to get a chance to tie it up themselves.

Texas has lost 5 sets all year. Of those 5 sets, only one of them did the opponent come back to win after Texas made it to 20. That was KU in their 2nd set. 

It's interesting to me to see how Elliott continues to handle the Parra/Skinner/Phillips conundrum, along with the choice between Bergmark and Caffey at the middle. I'm firmly of the position it should be determined in practice, which we won't see, rather than game performance, which we will see, because the challenge in practice will be way better for the most part. 

The match is being shown on ESPN, which is a really big deal. I'm hoping for viewership higher than 173,000, which is what it was for ESPN2 for the Kansas match in Lawrence a week and a half ago (a good viewership number, btw). My hope is that with ESPN giving volleyball more exposure on ESPN and ESPN2 it will lead to even bigger audiences over time. Personally I find it a lot of fun to follow.

I can't say I would follow it if Texas was terrible. In fact, I can categorically say I wouldn't watch it hardly at all. But I'm most definitely a front runner type in the sense I get very angry when my teams are not competitive. I don't go follow a different team, but my enthusiasm goes way down. However, with Texas being good I do find watching other teams a lot of fun. 

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