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2022 House elections


Gil Bang

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Peltola may already have won election to the U.S. House. Alaskans will learn the results of the Aug. 16 special election on Wednesday, when the ranked choice ballots are tallied. Republican Sarah Palin, the former governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, is in a good position to win once the second-choices are counted. But for now, Alaska’s right-wing icon is trailing by almost 9 percentage points

If Peltola wins, she’d be the first Alaska Native ever elected to Congress. Right now, all she wants to do is fish.

https://alaskapublic.org/2022/08/30/peltola-goes-home-to-the-kuskokwim-still-waiting-to-hear-if-shes-the-first-alaska-native-elected-to-congress/

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Sure. A far right Trump Republican was so bad, moderates from an Alaska dynasty family preferred to not vote for her or vote for a Dem instead. 

She sucks, but a lot of these Republicans running in swing districts and states do too

Molinaro in NY-19 was created in a candidate lab and lost. Maybe it’s not bc Palin was so bad 

Edited by Js1
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4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Uh yeah, MI board needed 3 votes to approve putting it on the ballot. Both GOP objected. Now it’s in limbo 

It will be decided by the MI SC which is Dem Majority so it will be on the ballot, which means a lot of GQP losses

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

🌊 

 

Is this a bit premature?

how likely is the Alaska GOP to start some program “educating” voters about making sure to put a 2nd option. About 20% of Begich voters left it blank. Do we really think that many people hate Palin? Would at least 5% of them have gone for Peltola to offset palin’s likely gains? 
 

thats the big question for me. I had assumed that the dems wouldn’t be able to win in November, but hopefully I’m wrong and cook political is right.

Edited by Voldemort86
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4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is this a bit premature?

how likely is the Alaska GOP to start some program “educating” voters about making sure to put a 2nd option. About 20% of Begich voters left it blank. Do we really think that many people hate Palin? Would at least 5% of them have gone for Peltola to offset palin’s likely gains? 
 

thats the big question for me. I had assumed that the dems wouldn’t be able to win in November, but hopefully I’m wrong and cook political is right.

Yeah it’s way way premature.  Doug Jones imo

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6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Is this a bit premature?

how likely is the Alaska GOP to start some program “educating” voters about making sure to put a 2nd option. About 20% of Begich voters left it blank. Do we really think that many people hate Palin? Would at least 5% of them have gone for Peltola to offset palin’s likely gains? 
 

thats the big question for me. I had assumed that the dems wouldn’t be able to win in November, but hopefully I’m wrong and cook political is right.

Apparently she got the most first place votes as well. Assuming it’s a 2 way race in November, if Palin voters largely stay home she wins

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9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Murkowski is the (wo)man in the black pajamas.  A worthy fucking adversary. Wins as a write in. Gonna win in an election specifically designed for her to lose. 

I’m here for it. I’m so glad Trump wasted all of his time going and campaigning in Alaska just for murkowski to likely win anyway. 

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

Apparently she got the most first place votes as well. Assuming it’s a 2 way race in November, if Palin voters largely stay home she wins

Plus incumbency. Alaska likes incumbents for the most part. Peltola is a Dem, but in an Alaska libertarian kinda way 

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Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

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23 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

 

 

The Aristocrats!

 

 

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45 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

Repubs before… 

D9746581-C5A2-4200-AC6F-0CFB3CDB5245.gif.d461def2f383dd4bf612a7d16d81d657.gif

Afterwards… 

6DCFD430-6E36-4220-888F-3966E3217861.gif.b7646becac17683a9848350d8372df6c.gif

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53 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

Good odds both Peltola and Murkowksi win in November. They’d be so fucking mad lol

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

You have that correct. 

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1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Good a place as any to post that Liz Cheney is coming to Austin later this month to headline TribFest.  I expect armed protestors.  Fun times.  

Ummmm, wtf is TribFest?  While I might be interested in a festival dedicated to tribbing, Liz Cheney isn't exactly who I would choose to headline it. 

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Let me get this straight:

First, Murkowski votes to convict Trump.

Then, they retaliate against Murkowski by changing the rules to RCV.

Then, they run Sarah Palin to replace their piece of shit representative because MAGA.

Then, not only does Murkowski still easily win but Palin loses.

Then, Tom Cotton and the other shitheels blame these Ls on the rules changes they made specifically to fuck Murkowski?

Do I have that right?

Nbc Wow GIF by America's Got Talent

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2 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Ummmm, wtf is TribFest?  While I might be interested in a festival dedicated to tribbing, Liz Cheney isn't exactly who I would choose to headline it. 

It’s where everyone dresses like a tribble, and they exponentially increase the number of people allowed in the facility throughout the convention. 

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A festival that’s been tribbed for her pleasure.  It’s the big Texas tribune program that’s live again this year.  Three days of really interesting programming with some big names in Politics and media.  Ted Cruz is another keynote.  Evan Smith’s final year hosting it.  Check it out online if you can’t attend in person.  It’s very non-partisan in intent but of course people that can’t help bring their personal bullshit both to the stage and audience. 

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In addition to AK-AL going from likely R -> tossup, 4 more rating changes, all in Democrats' favor.  Is that what a red wave looks like?

AZ-04: lean D -> likely D (Greg Stanton running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

MD-06: lean D -> likely D (David Trone running for re-election in a D+2 seat)

NY-03: tossup -> lean D (open D+2 seat)

VA-07: tossup -> lean D (Abigail Spanberger running for re-election in a D+1 seat)

 

If some of those D+1/D+2 seats start tiling Dem's way, that's like 24 seats.  There's 191 seats that are D+3 or higher, which includes new seats like NC-14 and OR-06 and R-held seats like TX-34 (Flores), CA-22 (Valadao), CA-27 (Garcia) and IL-13 (open). 

24 D+1/D+2 seats
7 even seats

Some of those Dems in R seats (8 in R+1 or R+2 seats and 10 in R+3 or higher seats) might be feeling a bit better. 

I truly think it's going to be a nail biter for the House when seats like NY-23, NE-01 and MN-01 were so close and Dems kept NY-19 and picked up AK-AL.  The odds are what they are, they will adjust with post-Labor Day polling. 

Edited by Js1
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