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We're Going (Alamo) Bowling!!!


satyanash

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On 11/20/2022 at 9:37 PM, pacman said:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35067369/week-12-college-football-bowl-projections-cfp-new-years-six

Still projecting Alamo Bowl versus Pac-12

Valero Alamo Bowl

Alamodome (San Antonio)

9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas vs. Oregon

Schlabach: Texas vs. Washington

 

All of the current projections have TCU in the playoff and the Sugar Bowl selecting Kansas State, presumably after losing to TCU in the Big 12 championship.

Is there any chance the Sugar Bowl would select 8-4 Texas over 9-4 Kansas State?  I have not seen that projected anywhere.

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All of the current projections have TCU in the playoff and the Sugar Bowl selecting Kansas State, presumably after losing to TCU in the Big 12 championship.
Is there any chance the Sugar Bowl would select 8-4 Texas over 9-4 Kansas State?  I have not seen that projected anywhere.

No. Big 12 will send CCG loser of winner is a playoff team. On the off chance Texas backs into the CCG and TCU wins against ISU, Texas will be guaranteed a Sugar Bowl berth via Big 12 champion slot (lol) or covering for playoff bound TCU.
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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Yeah but in 2018 the runner-up was Texas. Is it written down anywhere that the Sugar must take the runner-up? 

https://wvmetronews.com/2018/11/27/sugar-bowl-out-of-picture-west-virginia-texas-big-12/

"The Big 12 clarified its selection protocol: If the winner of the Big 12 Championship game is selected for a CFP semifinal, the runner-up team from the championship game would advance to the Sugar Bowl."

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20 minutes ago, satyanash said:

https://wvmetronews.com/2018/11/27/sugar-bowl-out-of-picture-west-virginia-texas-big-12/

"The Big 12 clarified its selection protocol: If the winner of the Big 12 Championship game is selected for a CFP semifinal, the runner-up team from the championship game would advance to the Sugar Bowl."

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

Quote

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining Conference teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams with .500 or better records when it reaches its spot in the selection order. After the placement of those teams, slots will be filled from among the pool of remaining teams.
Allstate Sugar
Valero Alamo
Cheez-It
TaxAct Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Guaranteed Rate
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl*/SERVPRO First Responder Bowl* 

 

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11 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

 

It does look like the process may be slightly different now than before the most recent negotiations:  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

Quote

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining bowl eligible teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams when it reaches its spot in the selection order.
Valero Alamo
Russell Athletic
AdvoCare V100 Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Cactus
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Note that the Sugar Bowl was treated separately from the rest in 2016-17, even though that was another year that it was not a semifinal.  May be nothing, but there may be a distinction.

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Records in 1-score games

TCU 5-0

KSU 2-2

Texas 2-4

OkSt 2-1

BU 2-3

TT 3-0

OU 0-3

KU 3-1

WVU 2-1

ISU 1-6

The Big 12 has 7 above average teams team with wildly different outcomes in close games.  Two average teams who've done well in close games (KU, TT).  And one below average team (WVU).  No one is elite or terrible.

Being clutch is a thing and huge intangible.  Good for TCU and their chutzpah.  Bad for UT.  But mean reversion always happens.  Take avg margin of victory - ISU, despite being last in the Big 12 at 4-7, is outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 4.2 points.  Play this season 100 times and they'd normally be 7-4 right now.  TCU is undefeated and their avg margin is 14 points.  Play their season 100 times and they'd normally be 8-3 or 9-2 right now.

If TCU makes it to the CFP (and they probably should if they win the last 2 games as a reward for being so clutch), they're going to face a good opponent for the first time this year and they're going to get stomped.  For the sake of making this a more entertaining CFP, I hope they choke away one of the last 2.  

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On 11/22/2022 at 11:29 AM, Texas Wahoo said:

It's weird that they would not include that in their bowl selection section on their website then.  https://big12sports.com/news/2019/5/23/211718886.aspx

 

"Once the CFP fills its bowl slots..."

The Sugar Bowl is included in that. The CFP committee sets NY6 matchups, utilizing conference tie ins where applicable.

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On 11/25/2022 at 9:57 AM, gmr548 said:

"Once the CFP fills its bowl slots..."

The Sugar Bowl is included in that. The CFP committee sets NY6 matchups, utilizing conference tie ins where applicable.

Then why include the Sugar Bowl in this list?

 

Big 12 Bowl Partners
Once the CFP has filled its bowl slots, Big 12 bowl partners will make selections from the remaining Conference teams. Following is the order of selection. A bowl may pick from any available teams with .500 or better records when it reaches its spot in the selection order. After the placement of those teams, slots will be filled from among the pool of remaining teams.
Allstate Sugar
Valero Alamo
Cheez-It
TaxAct Texas
AutoZone Liberty
Guaranteed Rate
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl*/SERVPRO First Responder Bowl* 

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24 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

So if KU wins, we go to Sugar no matter what? Win or lose in Big 12 Champ game?

already answer up thread 

add: if TCU loses to ISU, and Texas backs into CCG, Where would Texas go if they lose? Still Alamo I guess?

The only way Texas does not go to the Sugar or Alamo bowls is if the Alamo bowl picks someone else, which seems very unlikely. 

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6 minutes ago, RabidM said:

OK, so say TCU wins the B12 championship game and go to the playoffs.  We are 8-4 and KSU is 9-4.  We clearly are a much bigger draw and they're only half a game better than us, and we beat them at KSU.  Can we slip into the Sugar under this scenario?

No. CCG runner up is auto to the Sugar Bowl. 

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We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Edited by mdmost
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10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Gimme oregon then to avenge the last 2 bowl losses we have (im not counting 2009 as a bowl loss) had in the past 20 years

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19 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We're looking at the Alamo with either Oregon or Utah as the opponent. If WSU wins tonight, Oregon backs into the Pac 12 title game and gets the Rose Bowl regardless. Utah then is the Alamo choice. If Washington wins, Utah is in the Pac 12 CCG and either way they go to the Rose. Oregon then slips to the Alamo. 

Not necessarily. If USC takes the loss they aren’t going to the CFP and if the loss is bad enough maybe not a NYD6 game?  They probably will but Bama and Tenn are out there with 2 losses as well and might be geographic favorites over SC, plus there’s just a ton of auto bids to teams like LSU, KSU, tallest midget from the group of 5, ACC champ.   

 

 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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If historical ways still stand Alamobowl takes Pac10 #2

 

USC and Utah in Championship game.

USC loss = Alamobowl, Utah goes Rose, Oregon goes Alamobowl

USC win = Playoff, Utah or Oregon Rose/Alamo : Oregon beat Utah in season but not sure if Utah earns 2nd by making conf champ. Oregon and Utah finished regular conference record 7-3 but Utah, if losing to USC, would have a 4th loss (with a loss to Oregon.) Someone else can dig deeper and see if Ore or Utah are 2nd in which situations if USC wins.

 

Of these options, go Utah beat USC.

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Based on how the Pac 12 is shaking out, it looks like the most likely scenario for us is the Alamo Bowl against Washington. If USC loses to Utah in the Pac 12 Championship, then we'll play the Trojans instead. Interesting options as they're both schools that Sark used to coach for.

If KSU beats TCU next Saturday, then we'll probably fall to the Cheezit and play the loser of the ACC Championship, which will be either Clemson or UNC.

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This is from the Sugar Bowl's website:

The Allstate Sugar Bowl will host the champions of the SEC and the Big 12 unless either or both of those champions are selected for the College Football Playoff. If either of the champions do qualify for the playoff, another highly-ranked representative from the conference(s) will play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. In the case of the SEC, the replacement team would be the top-ranked non-playoff team. In the case of the Big 12, the replacement team would be the next non-playoff team with the best record in the regular-season standings.

 

I don't see how we jump Kansas State in that regard as they have a better regular season record than us. I mean, I'm down for it if it happens but I don't see it. 

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I think it’s interesting that there is slightly different criteria for the non-playoff SEC team vs Big 12 team. Also, what do they mean by “regular season”? I assume they mean standings before CCG and, if so, I also don’t see how they would pick us (assuming they follow their own criteria). Hope I’m wrong though…would be nice to have an excuse for more of mdmost’s gumbo

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obviously i prefer the sugar bowl, but i haven't seen a potential matchup yet (across any of the three bowl possibilities) that i hate.  i'd rather not play alabama simply because we play them again next season, but any of lsu, tennesee, oregon, washington, usc, notre dame, fsu, clemson, unc feel like fun matchups to me.

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  • satyanash changed the title to We're Going (Alamo) Bowling!!!

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