Jump to content

Origin of Covid-19


statsman

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You absolutely are hung up on it.

 

You don't know what GoF is.

Instead of having covid from someone eating or fucking a bat like nature intended.  we take that covid that can only infect bats and make it able to infect humans in a lab by messing with its genes.  is that not GoF or am I off?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I just don't understand.  No one has a hard time when we GMO 80 different types of carrots.   But when someone says we GMO 80 different coronaviruses.  People have a hard time believing it. 

 

GMO carrots don't kill millions of people.  Engineered viruses can.

Edited by Horn of Gabriel
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

I don't know, do we really need to hold China liable or accountable in any other way than assigning blame or fault?

Serious question.

There really isn't a world court for negligence cases.  Most "liability" as between countries is inflicted by war, or treaties ending wars, and, of course, economic sanctions, but that's mostly coercive more than retributive.

I think so.

China caused one of the biggest meltdowns in recent history-- economically, politically, medically, socially, et al. 

In a perfect world, the world bans together to put China in a corner and demand accountability and remedy. Lord knows we can't do it alone or even with a small group of powerful countries.

I think the moral hazard to just say "China is too big too fail to demand accountability from so we just have to get over it and they get away with it" is bad.

But then again, maybe it's just a tough pill to swallow because we have played ourselves into this hand with our overreliance on globalization and China's growth and power of the last 25 years.

The whole thing makes me sick to be honest, which is probably a fault and flaw of my human self. I want justice as if it's black and white and easy, knowing the geopolitical world is not that easy.

Edited by HamsterHookah
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A related topic and hopefully a lesson learned is tolerance for open communication in such events.  The attempt to shut down and categorically eliminate possibilities without sufficient information, in some cases with absolutely no information, was ridiculous.  Unlike the millions of non medical professionals in 2020 who had this knowledge revealed to them, I had no clue how this virus originated, what spike proteins are or why mRNA is important, what gain of function research entails, or how to interpret the graphs of genetic material sequencing.  Sometimes one really can just ask honest questions without having some end conclusion in mind.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, axiom of foundation said:

A related topic and hopefully a lesson learned is tolerance for open communication in such events.  The attempt to shut down and categorically eliminate possibilities without sufficient information, in some cases with absolutely no information, was ridiculous.  Unlike the millions of non medical professionals in 2020 who had this knowledge revealed to them, I had no clue how this virus originated, what spike proteins are or why mRNA is important, what gain of function research entails, or how to interpret the graphs of genetic material sequencing.  Sometimes one really can just ask honest questions without having some end conclusion in mind.   

And yet you see it still again on this thread-- people want to silence the questioning, or worse yet, roll their eyes and say "not this again" because it is uncomfortable. I allowed that there are annoying consequences (people who are prone to take a mile when given an inch), but attention must be paid, is my belief.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

And yet you see it still again on this thread-- people want to silence the questioning, or worse yet, roll their eyes and say "not this again" because it is uncomfortable. I allowed that there are annoying consequences (people who are prone to take a mile when given an inch), but attention must be paid, is my belief.

 

elmo fire.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

And yet you see it still again on this thread-- people want to silence the questioning, or worse yet, roll their eyes and say "not this again" because it is uncomfortable. I allowed that there are annoying consequences (people who are prone to take a mile when given an inch), but attention must be paid, is my belief.

JFC…I’m one of the people who made a snarky statement in the vein of ‘not this again’.  I’m making a mistake here by engaging but fuck it, you’re not my dad:

1) No one is silencing the questioning

2) There is no new concrete evidence on the exact source of the virus 

3) Any concrete evidence of the viral origins is almost certainly buried forever (or at least years and years) in/by China 

4) Fauci had nothing to do with it and all this gain-of-function chat is rehashed shit…it’s not Project Blue from The Stand

5) It’s certainly important to identify and learn from the origins of Covid, but that’s not what’s happening here

…with nothing new to talk about it devolves into conspiracy central, shit flinging and people talking like they have a clue about labs thousands of miles away.  No posts have been deleted, mods haven’t locked this, people are allowed to bitch about it being a taint-magnet thread just like you’re free to talk like you’re being repressed.  

  • Hook 'Em 7
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, HamsterHookah said:

And yet you see it still again on this thread-- people want to silence the questioning, or worse yet, roll their eyes and say "not this again" because it is uncomfortable. I allowed that there are annoying consequences (people who are prone to take a mile when given an inch), but attention must be paid, is my belief.

Haven’t you been banned like 5 times? 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Homercles said:

5) It’s certainly important to identify and learn from the origins of Covid, but that’s not what’s happening here

…with nothing new to talk about it devolves into conspiracy central, shit flinging and people talking like they have a clue about labs thousands of miles away.  No posts have been deleted, mods haven’t locked this, people are allowed to bitch about it being a taint-magnet thread just like you’re free to talk like you’re being repressed.  

Let's start at a place of agreement-- your point 5. Where in your mind is a productive and forward-moving way to investigate this? What makes sense to intelligently try and get an exhaustive and definitive root cause analysis report? Just the objective facts and timelines and parties involved, dispensing with any punitive retaliation or accountability...yet.

Because what I think I'm hearing you say is that it's impossible in your mind so we might not even try and shouldn't even bring it up because it just gives oxygen to the loonies who want to conspiracy theory this to death, so the benefit of letting the sleeping doe lie outweighs the risk (or your annoyance) of kicking up dust for these answers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I assume people who still think a natural mutation is the source are either a)stupid or b) purposefully muddling the conversation. 

Bern was correct in that it isn't a question of how (lab leak), but whether it was intentional or not.  This devolves into 'consipracy theory' but recall what was going on internally in China prior to covid.  Regardless of what they were dealing with from an international perspective, there was a lot of uncomfortable things occurring in Hong Kong and financially within their country.   

The GOF discussion is a distraction.  Grant funding by US government agencies go on all over the place.  Money is fungible.  I think Jimmy showed at one point that the NIH gave something like $600k to the Wuhan lab bio ecohealth.  That amount is such an insignificant number that trying to say the US funded the GOF research that led to Covid is nothing more than a CCP talking point meant to sow division and discord.

Your initial assertions are not based on science. There is scant evidence the virus was actually manipulated. While there is some evidence that could be consistent with a lab release, it is important to recognize that a lab release and natural mutation are not mutually exclusive. In fact, in the event this was a lab release, the most likely explanation is that it was a lab release of a collected, rather than manipulated, sample. And, based on available data, there is still a good probability that this was not a lab release. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

There is scant evidence the virus was actually manipulated. While there is some evidence that could be consistent with a lab release, it is important to recognize that a lab release and natural mutation are not mutually exclusive. In fact, in the event this was a lab release, the most likely explanation is that it was a lab release of a collected, rather than manipulated, sample.

Manipulated is too imprecise of a term here, imo.  It covers anything from like right out bioengineering to something more "benign" like serial passage that could be seen as accelerating a natural process of adaptation.  I mean, technically once it has been removed from it natural habit and brought to a lab, cultured, and propagated, it has been manipulated to some extent. 

 

I agree with the comments above that we will never have conclusive evidence one way or the other re: COVID.  I disagree with the points that try to minimize the role that US taxpayer funding has played in the broad range of work that has been discussed here, both domestically and overseas.  I don't think that we have performed the appropriate and necessary oversight on the work that we have been funding. Someone should be held accountable for that. If this debate has accomplished anything, it is making those points very clear, at least imo. You can land on that same conclusion no matter what role you think such research played in the emergence of COVID. 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Manipulated is too imprecise of a term here, imo.  It covers anything from like right out bioengineering to something more "benign" like serial passage that could be seen as accelerating a natural process of adaptation.  I mean, technically once it has been removed from it natural habit and brought to a lab, cultured, and propagated, it has been manipulated to some extent. 
 
I agree with the comments above that we will never have conclusive evidence one way or the other re: COVID.  I disagree with the points that try to minimize the role that US taxpayer funding has played in the broad range of work that has been discussed here, both domestically and overseas.  I don't think that we have performed the appropriate and necessary oversight on the work that we have been funding. Someone should be held accountable for that. If this debate has accomplished anything, it is making those points very clear, at least imo. You can land on that same conclusion no matter what role you think such research played in the emergence of COVID. 

Good post, and good points. All of these can be true in parallel without going down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole.
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your initial assertions are not based on science. There is scant evidence the virus was actually manipulated. While there is some evidence that could be consistent with a lab release, it is important to recognize that a lab release and natural mutation are not mutually exclusive. In fact, in the event this was a lab release, the most likely explanation is that it was a lab release of a collected, rather than manipulated, sample. And, based on available data, there is still a good probability that this was not a lab release. 

Maybe I’m misremembering but in a foia release people involved in initial response and sequencing making observations that the original strain was so perfectly suited for transmission between humans that the probability of naturally occurring mutation was infinitesimal.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know, do we really need to hold China liable or accountable in any other way than assigning blame or fault?
Serious question.
There really isn't a world court for negligence cases.  Most "liability" as between countries is inflicted by war, or treaties ending wars, and, of course, economic sanctions, but that's mostly coercive more than retributive.

Not only did COVID originate in a Chinese lab, but the PRC refused to cooperate with the WHO and other global health organizations in acknowledging that an epidemic/pandemic was beginning, investigating its origins and characteristics, or working towards prevention and treatment measures. The virus being released was bad enough, but even if we assume it was accidental, the response by the PRC at every step along the way for the past 3 years is unforgivable. Their attempts to sweep it under the rug have amplified the damage and their own population continues to suffer because of their government’s poor decisions.

In an ideal world China should absolutely be held accountable for all of that. Unfortunately, we are tied at the hip to them economically, and no one, the U.S. included, is willing to confront China and play hardball on this.

The unsettling thing is that nothing will change from this and China could easily be responsible for another pandemic in 15-20 years because the rest of the world has collectively agreed to just give them the space they need to do whatever they feel they want to do. And if it’s not another pandemic, then it will be something like climate change, where the rest of us are fighting carbon emissions while China casually continues pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, wild_turkey said:


Not only did COVID originate in a Chinese lab, but the PRC refused to cooperate with the WHO and other global health organizations in acknowledging that an epidemic/pandemic was beginning, investigating its origins and characteristics, or working towards prevention and treatment measures. The virus being released was bad enough, but even if we assume it was accidental, the response by the PRC at every step along the way for the past 3 years is unforgivable. Their attempts to sweep it under the rug have amplified the damage and their own population continues to suffer because of their government’s poor decisions.

In an ideal world China should absolutely be held accountable for all of that. Unfortunately, we are tied at the hip to them economically, and no one, the U.S. included, is willing to confront China and play hardball on this.

The unsettling thing is that nothing will change from this and China could easily be responsible for another pandemic in 15-20 years because the rest of the world has collectively agreed to just give them the space they need to do whatever they feel they want to do. And if it’s not another pandemic, then it will be something like climate change, where the rest of us are fighting carbon emissions while China casually continues pumping CO2 into the atmosphere.

Everything you just said is so spot on true and the text book definition of “moral hazard”. And we are going to sit back and let it happen like a bunch of gimps. It’s sickening, really.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everything you just said is so spot on true and the text book definition of “moral hazard”. And we are going to sit back and let it happen like a bunch of gimps. It’s sickening, really.

Cool. So go saddle up and start a war with China.
Realpolitik is a thing. It’s easy to talk about shit and how much you’d kick ass if you were in charge - so go ahead and play out your China punishment/vengeance scenarios, and tell us how it goes.
The reasoning is pretty damn close the the reasoning that has the West restraining itself from launching direct attacks on Russia to put an end to its war in Europe: the cost and consequences are too high.
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Cool. So go saddle up and start a war with China.
Realpolitik is a thing. It’s easy to talk about shit and how much you’d kick ass if you were in charge - so go ahead and play out your China punishment/vengeance scenarios, and tell us how it goes.
The reasoning is pretty damn close the the reasoning that has the West restraining itself from launching direct attacks on Russia to put an end to its war in Europe: the cost and consequences are too high.

It depends on what you mean by starting a war. I think in the long-run reprimanding China and requiring a true investigation would be a net positive for the world. Ignoring the problem will lead to issues in the future similar to the problems we now face with Russia. The real question, to me is how far to push it: Reparations would lead to worldwide economic issues that would cause political turmoil so I don't think leaders would go that far. Surely, though, negotiators could put that on the table so a true investigation could happen.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


Maybe I’m misremembering but in a foia release people involved in initial response and sequencing making observations that the original strain was so perfectly suited for transmission between humans that the probability of naturally occurring mutation was infinitesimal.

Nobody knowledgeable made such observations.

The initial strain out of Wuhan had an R0 in the 2 to 4 range, about double the flu but in line with other coronaviruses and the common cold. The severity also was well within the range of naturally occurring coronavirus infection, between the nastier ones like SARS and MERS and the harmless ones that cause the cold.

The original strain had a lot to improve upon, which it eventually did in the form of omicron by ordinary natural mutation and selection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Nobody knowledgeable made such observations.

The initial strain out of Wuhan had an R0 in the 2 to 4 range, about double the flu but in line with other coronaviruses and the common cold. The severity also was well within the range of naturally occurring coronavirus infection, between the nastier ones like SARS and MERS and the harmless ones that cause the cold.

The original strain had a lot to improve upon, which it eventually did in the form of omicron by ordinary natural mutation and selection.

I don't get any of what you are saying. A higher mortality rate is bad for the survival of the virus. A more infectious virus is also bad for virus survival as it will run through the population too fast. So, all in all, the virus was pretty ideal for its survival in humans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, babysdaddy said:


Maybe I’m misremembering but in a foia release people involved in initial response and sequencing making observations that the original strain was so perfectly suited for transmission between humans that the probability of naturally occurring mutation was infinitesimal.

There are were some assertions about that, not from a foia request or anything, just another scientist commenting on it early on. Those conclusions have largely been rejected by the scientific community. Here is a good overview of some of the arguments either way:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/

 

And here is an article on what you were originally referring to: https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/top-vaccine-scientist-covid-19-is-almost-perfectly-human-adapted/

 

 

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

There are were some assertions about that, not from a foia request or anything, just another scientist commenting on it early on. Those conclusions have largely been rejected by the scientific community. Here is a good overview of some of the arguments either way:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/

 

And here is an article on what you were originally referring to: https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/top-vaccine-scientist-covid-19-is-almost-perfectly-human-adapted/

 

 

 

 

Thank you for providing the background information on that 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

There are were some assertions about that, not from a foia request or anything, just another scientist commenting on it early on. Those conclusions have largely been rejected by the scientific community. Here is a good overview of some of the arguments either way:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7982270/

 

And here is an article on what you were originally referring to: https://nypost.com/2020/05/27/top-vaccine-scientist-covid-19-is-almost-perfectly-human-adapted/

 

 

 

 

There’s also a big difference between a human created strain and a human influenced strain.  Could be a natural strain that just got enabled to propagate via testing.  Not saying that’s what happened, but there’s a big difference between engineering the strain and focused testing which results in natural mutation, but more quickly.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is another article that covers the same issue. The op ed didn't actually identify new evidence or suggest anything that scientist hadn't considered previously. It made grand conclusions that weren't supported by the evidence and incorrectly stated "that the double CGG sequence has never been found naturally among the entire group of coronaviruses that includes CoV-2, which causes COVID-19."

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/06/14/science/covid-lab-leak-fauci-kristian-andersen.amp.html

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


Cool. So go saddle up and start a war with China.
Realpolitik is a thing. It’s easy to talk about shit and how much you’d kick ass if you were in charge - so go ahead and play out your China punishment/vengeance scenarios, and tell us how it goes.
The reasoning is pretty damn close the the reasoning that has the West restraining itself from launching direct attacks on Russia to put an end to its war in Europe: the cost and consequences are too high.

When I posed my question above about "liability," I meant trying to impose consequences beyond simply allocation of fault or blame.

There are certain consequences I think that flow simply from publicly allocating fault that don't necessarily require "imposing liability" in some additional or other way, such as sanctions.

Just as an idle matter, I kind of find it interesting that humans tend to want to impose vengeance or retribution as part of their notions of justice.  I get it, but I'm not sure its a healthy tendency.  I have come to view many/most of the world's religions as pretty good sources of positive human psychology and I think "vengeance is mine, sayeth the Lord" may be one of those little psychological nuggets we'd be better off observing.

In other words, we probably cause more problems seeking retribution than any benefit we get from it.

Edited by TwiceHorn
  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Bevo said:

It depends on what you mean by starting a war. I think in the long-run reprimanding China and requiring a true investigation would be a net positive for the world. Ignoring the problem will lead to issues in the future similar to the problems we now face with Russia. The real question, to me is how far to push it: Reparations would lead to worldwide economic issues that would cause political turmoil so I don't think leaders would go that far. Surely, though, negotiators could put that on the table so a true investigation could happen.

The problem is that China is obsessed with their image.  Here in the US, if a company or a politician or government body fucks up whether through incompetence or laziness or greed or whatever, we the people, the media, etc. tear into them and mock them mercilessly, and can even vote them out or force them to make changes through public pressure (social media, etc.).

If the Chinese government fucks up, whether through incompetence, laziness or greed or whatever, if you start talking shit about them, you're headed to jail.  They don't have to reform because they can make the "problem" (people/media) disappear.  

This is a nation and leader so insanely sensitive about their image that they banned the Winnie the Pooh movie in China because people mentioned that Winnie the Pooh looked like Xi.

We could have all of the evidence in the world pointing to them fucking around and finding out with COVID-19, but their pride will never let them admit that they fucked up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

When I posed my question above about "liability," I meant trying to impose consequences beyond simply allocation of fault or blame.

There are certain consequences I think that flow simply from publicly allocating fault that don't necessarily require "imposing liability" in some additional or other way, such as sanctions.

Just as an idle matter, I kind of find it interesting that humans tend to want to impose vengeance or retribution as part of their notions of justice.  I get it, but I'm not sure its a healthy tendency.  I have come to view many/most of the world's religions as pretty good sources of positive human psychology and I think "vengeance is mine, sayeth the Lord" may be one of those little psychological nuggets we'd be better off observing.

In other words, we probably cause more problems seeking retribution than any benefit we get from it.

There are a lot of ways in which I am impatient with others, it’s a thing I need to work on. One of those is how slow people are to come off of things aren’t useful at all, like this type of justice that simply won’t happen. I forget that not everyone has had the serenity prayer pounded into their being as a matter of survival.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Problem is that China isn’t cooperating. They know what happened in their lab, and they’re not talking. 
 
Want to think it was a natural occurrence? Well, the Chinese either don’t think so (which is their public and official stance) or they really love their wet markets (actually, they really do, but come on- millions are dead), because they haven’t changed a thing about them. 
 

I think “lab escape” is on solid footing. 

Edited by statsman
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Set aside COVID for a sec, as hard as that is.  Also set aside the origin discussion of lab leak vs. wet market vs. natural.

Why do GoF?  This is literally creating killer viruses in the lab that don't exist in nature.  Some of these are relatively benign flu-like stuff, and some of them would make COVID look like a sniffle.  We are basically trusting the future of humanity (not an exaggeration at this point) to the security of largely unregulated labs and disinterested governments around the world.  It's like nuclear weapons, only worse, because there are only a few countries that could create nuclear devastation.  There are at least dozens of countries capable of GoF now.  We're one finger prick, one broken slide, or one mis-configured BSL lab from an extinction-level event.  It came out that the Wuhan lab was supposed to be doing research at BSL-4 but was actually at BSL-3 or -2.  This is scary, scary stuff and we're getting by on luck and voluntary regulation.  It's beyond playing with fire, it's incredibly irresponsible because we're basically putting the nuclear football and big red button in every lab doing this research around the world.

As pointed out above, our virological research and understanding has progressed independently of GoF research.  We don't need it, it doesn't provide demonstrable value commensurate with the risks it poses and it should be banned WW. We've managed it with with human cloning - even China is onboard, and jailed the mad scientist that was going that direction.  Any country that makes supportive moves of scientists trying human cloning would turn into a world pariah.  We need to treat GoF the same.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...