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2023 NBA Draft


Mitch Cumsteen

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36 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

First off all, yes... it's complete luck to win the lottery three times at the odds that they had. No fucking shit. I don't think anybody with half a brain would ever deny that.

But not fucking it up afterward? There's definitely skill in that. Look at how many hall of fame players got drafted to shitty teams/organizations and never did shit. KG wasted away for a decade in Minnesota. New Orleans did absolutely dogshit with Anthony Davis. Cleveland royally fucked up Lebron's first tour there. Shaq in Orlando. I could do this forever.

For damn near 30 years the Spurs drafted at the dead ass end of the first round. For sure they missed on a bunch of dudes, but got damn did they hit on an an unreal number of rotation (or better) guys that typically outperformed players drafted 10-15 slots ahead of them on the regular. You want some examples: Luis Scola #56 (still pisses me off he never played for them), Beno Udrih #28, Ian Mahinmi #28, Tiago Splitter #28, George Hill #26, Cory Joseph #29, Kyle Anderson #30, Dejounte Murray #29, Derrick White #29, Keldon Johnson #29, Tre Jones #41. Go ahead and find me another franchise with a track record like that. And that doesn't even mention guys they pulled off the scrap heap like Bruce Bowen, Danny Green, Patty Mills, etc.

And for the record, the Spurs didn't completely fall apart when Kawhi bolted. They were a 48 win playoff team him in 2019 without him playing a single minute while he was being a giant bleeding cunt distraction. Then they won 32-34 games a year for the next three years with two play-in games. Then they blew it up and rolled the dice to tank specifically for the one year when the generational prospect was available and well... 

But it's certainly not luck or coincidence that this just happened to be the year that they tanked. This isn't some multi-year Houston, Detroit or Philadelphia bottom out. It was one year, see if you get lucky, and then start building it back up whatever happens. It just happened that whatever happened, happened. And they are positioned perfectly with good young supporting talent (that they drafted btw) in Sochan, Vassell and K Johnson, and loaded for bear with draft picks, swaps and cap room. Getting Wemby was lucky as fuck but everything else... not so much.

Let him cook.

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16 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

Lmao at thinking the lottery is rigged. The Cavs have won it 4 times in like 20 years but lets just ignore that.

Crazy coincidence they got. Bron right?!?!   And Derrick rose got to go to his hometown as well.  Great stories.  How do you rig a draft anyway?   Certified big five accounting companies oversee the process.  Impossible to rig.  Besides the spurs numbers were called two additional times!

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18 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

And for the record, the Spurs didn't completely fall apart when Kawhi bolted. They were a 48 win playoff team him in 2019 without him playing a single minute while he was being a giant bleeding cunt distraction.

Beautiful post, but just wanted to add…

They won 47 in 2017-‘18 when Kawhi was being a giant bleeding cunt distraction.

They then won 48 the next year, when he was in Toronto.

Of course this little detail only strengthens your argument.

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3 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Crazy coincidence they got. Bron right?!?!   And Derrick rose got to go to his hometown as well.  Great stories.  How do you rig a draft anyway?   Certified big five accounting companies oversee the process.  Impossible to rig.  Besides the spurs numbers were called two additional times!

Yes. An accounting firm could never make a mistake or be fooled. 

https://amp.theguardian.com/film/2017/feb/27/pricewaterhousecoopers-issues-sincere-apology-for-oscars-blunder

https://www.hg.org/legal-articles/the-fallout-of-arthur-andersen-and-enron-on-the-legal-landscape-of-american-accounting-31277

D405E6B4-9421-4E57-B74E-AC26E5C9FAEA.jpeg

Edited by Irieguy
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  • 3 weeks later...

The draft is a week away. After the first pick, anything could happen (i.e., trades, crazy shit) and things should get really interesting after #3. I'm seeing mocks with guys all over the place with several polarizing prospects that someone will reach for, and then the inevitable fall for much safer picks that everyone will say after the fact, "I can't believe so and so fell like that. How did that happen?" This is an exceptionally deep draft. There's the top 1, the next 2, then who the fuck knows.

I can't wait to see what Houston does at 4. Drafting 4th in a three man draft is a tough beat.  For all intents, that's when the draft really starts. I don't know how their free agent pursuits fit into their draft plans, but I'm seeing a lot of Cam Whitmore picks for them. I think he's a good positional fit but I think they need more high IQ / unselfish players. He and Green are both black holes on offense. Amen Thompson makes sense as a distributor, but both the twins have big boom/bust potential. 

Here's the latest consensus draft I pulled, but I don't know how good it really is. I'm seeing Derek Lively, Bilal Coulibali, Kobe Bufkin and Leonard Miller move up considerably from this. 

1 sas_25_0.gif San Antonio Victor Wembanyama 7-2 210 C France Intl.
2 cha.jpg Charlotte Scoot Henderson 6-2 195 PG G-League Fr.
3 por_25_1.gif Portland Brandon Miller 6-9 200 SF Alabama Fr.
4 hou_25_1.gif *Houston Amen Thompson 6-7 200 PG/SG Overtime Elite Fr.
5 det_25.jpg *Detroit Cam Whitmore 6-7 230 SF Villanova Fr.
6 orl_25_0.gif Orlando Ausar Thompson 6-7 205 SG Overtime Elite Fr.
7 ind_25_1.gif Indiana Anthony Black 6-7 200 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
8 dc.gif *Washington Jarace Walker 6-8 235 SF/PF Houston Fr.
9 uth_25_1_0.gif Utah Gradey Dick 6-8 205 SG Kansas Fr.
10 dal_25_1.gif *Dallas Taylor Hendricks 6-9 215 PF/C Central Florida Fr.
11 orl_25_0.gif *Orlando Cason Wallace 6-4 195 PG/SG Kentucky Fr.
12 okc_25_1.gif Oklahoma Cty Nick Smith 6-5 185 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
13 tor_25_1.gif Toronto Keyonte George 6-4 185 SG Baylor Fr.
14 pelicans.jpg *New Orleans Jordan Hawkins 6-5 190 SG UConn So.
15 atl_25.jpg Atlanta GG Jackson 6-9 215 PF South Carolina Fr.
16 uth_25_1_0.gif *Utah Leonard Miller 6-10 210 SF G-League Fr.
17 lal_25_0.gif *LA Lakers Kris Murray 6-8 220 SF/PF Iowa Jr.
18 mia_25_1.gif Miami Jalen Hood-Schif... 6-6 215 PG/SG Indiana Fr.
19 gsw_25_1.gif Golden St. Dereck Lively 7-1 230 C Duke Fr.
20 hou_25_1.gif *Houston Rayan Rupert 6-6 185 SG/SF France Intl.
21 brk_25.gif *Brooklyn Kobe Bufkin 6-5 195 SG Michigan So.
22 brk_25.gif Brooklyn Bilal Coulibaly 6-7 200 SF France Intl.
23 por_25_1.gif *Portland Maxwell Lewis 6-7 195 SG/SF Pepperdine So.
24 sac_25_1.gif Sacramento Jett Howard 6-8 215 SG Michigan Fr.
25 mem_25_1.gif Memphis Dariq Whitehead 6-7 220 SG/SF Duke Fr.
26 ind_25_1.gif *Indiana Trayce Jackson-D... 6-9 245 PF/C Indiana Sr.
27 cha.jpg *Charlotte Brice Sensabaugh 6-6 235 SF/PF Ohio St. Fr.
28 uth_25_1_0.gif *Utah Noah Clowney 6-10 210 PF Alabama Fr.
29 ind_25_1.gif *Indiana Sidy Cissoko 6-8 200 SG G-League Intl.
30 lac_25_1.gif *LA Clippers Terquavion Smith 6-4 165 PG/SG NC State So.

Some hot sports opinions:

  • Of all the non-Scoot projected first round point guards, I like Cason Wallace the best. I think Anthony Black is a little overrated. Great size and vision, but I'm not in love with the pace -- seems like he's easy to speed up and turnover. But he's almost sure to be the second point guard off the board after Scoot. I'm not as high on Bufkin or Hood-Schifino although I like Bufkin better of the two. And if I'm being honest, I'm not really that in love with Scoot. I just have a hunch about Cason Wallace that he's going to be a great pro.
  • I favor both Walker and Hendricks over the Thompson twins. They still scare the shit out of me, but I do buy them both as playmakers. 
  • I like Rayan Rupert a lot. He's falling because of his jumpshot but his release is fine -- bad base, but easily fixable.
  • I should hate Maxwell Lewis, but there is something about his game I dig. He will probably bust.
  • Guys who I think are grossly overrated: Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Nick Smith, Kris Murray, GG Jackson. I would throw Dariq Whitehead into this mix, but I don't know how much his injury impacted him. I suppose you could say the same about Nick Smith. I could throw Jett Howard into the overrated mix, but his shooting should at least translate.
  • There are some interesting athletic bigs with big boom/bust potential: Lively, Miller, Clowney, Jackson Davis. Lively at least will be a good shot blocker and rim running big - much higher projection if you believe in his jumpshot.
  • For the late first / early second, I really like Sidy Cissoko. I don't understand why he's not projected higher. Strong finisher in transition, excellent defender with point guard skills in an NBA-made body. I probably like him better than 15 guys who will get drafted in front of him. For sleepers, I like Julian Phillips, Brandin Podziemski, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. 

 

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Victor is a 5 star prospect, elite talent for sure. Rest of the draft is hot garbage. He’ll be in the right city to bulk up ha 
 

Miller should be facing charges for his part in a murder, so fuck him. God save any team dumb enough to trade for Zion 

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7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Victor is a 5 star prospect, elite talent for sure. Rest of the draft is hot garbage. He’ll be in the right city to bulk up ha 
 

Miller should be facing charges for his part in a murder, so fuck him. God save any team dumb enough to trade for Zion 

Disagree big time about this draft being garbage. Ignoring for a minute that it has the best overall prospect in a generation and the highest rated point guard in at least a decade, this draft is as deep as any I can remember. There are going to be busts but you can find first round talent probably through about the first 40-45 picks. 

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1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Disagree big time about this draft being garbage. Ignoring for a minute that it has the best overall prospect in a generation and the highest rated point guard in at least a decade, this draft is as deep as any I can remember. There are going to be busts but you can find first round talent probably through about the first 40-45 picks. 


I don’t see that kind of depth at all, but who knows. Things have to play out 

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This draft has a lot of role/late lottery guys that could go in any order but there's a steep drop off from 2 and 3 to 4. 

Scoot and Miller are both elite prospects and easily would have gotten drafted ahead of JSJ and maybe even Chet last year. 

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On 6/15/2023 at 10:26 AM, Mitch Cumsteen said:

 

  • I favor both Walker and Hendricks over the Thompson twins. They still scare the shit out of me, but I do buy them both as playmakers. 

 

Houston hopefully trades down a few spots if “basketball” demands that whatever team picks at #4 takes a Thompson. Guards who can’t shoot have a Ben Simmons ceiling. 

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16 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

this Scoot fella looks pretty good to me. 

Agreed.  From what I've read, he has a great attitude, loves basketball, and has an NBA body now despite being 6'2".  I'd take him over Miller despite the obvious metrics.  Scoot's shot might not be great but he's 19 or 20 just like the rest of them so can it get better in a few years?  Prolly.

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8 hours ago, ztejas said:

This draft has a lot of role/late lottery guys that could go in any order but there's a steep drop off from 2 and 3 to 4. 

Scoot and Miller are both elite prospects and easily would have gotten drafted ahead of JSJ and maybe even Chet last year. 

There is negative million percent chance OKC takes either of them over Chet last year.

I could them being in the mix at 3 but I still think JS goes at #3 and then Scoot and then Miller.  No one would take a bad shooting 6'2" guard over 3 guys who are all over 6'10" and can score.

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31 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

No one would take a bad shooting 6'2" guard

Great scouting report.

JSJ is younger than Miller so he probably would go ahead of him. 

I seriously doubt anyone would draft JSJ over Scoot, but NBA GMs are dumb. JSJ is a total project. Scoot is going to be close to a starting-level guard from day 1. 

Then again Luka went 3rd overall so maybe I'm more arguing who should go where and not actually what would happen. 

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3 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Windhorst just said on BS's pod he has scouts telling him Scoot would go #1 in next year's draft and in '25 and potentially would have gone #1 last season. 

OKC would most definitely not have taken him at #2.  Rockets at #3 maybe.

Combine the years and you prolly get:

Wemby

Banchero/Chet

Chet/Banchero

JSJ

then Miller or Scoot

I like Scoot and think he'll be a really good player but Ivey was a similar player in last year's draft and he went #5.

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Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

OKC would most definitely not have taken him at #2.  Rockets at #3 maybe.

Combine the years and you prolly get:

Wemby

Banchero/Chet

Chet/Banchero

JSJ

then Miller or Scoot

I like Scoot and think he'll be a really good player but Ivey was a similar player in last year's draft and he went #5.

Ivey was nowhere near the prospect Scoot is and they really aren't similar players past their general position. Have you actually watched Scoot play or work out? 

It's not like I'm making shit up, I'm basing this off of the guy's comprehensive and fairly consensus eval. 

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2 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Ivey was nowhere near the prospect Scoot is and they really aren't similar players past their general position. Have you actually watched Scoot play or work out? 

It's not like I'm making shit up, I'm basing this off of the guy's comprehensive and fairly consensus eval. 

Yes and he goes #3 last year at best and that's only because the Rockets will do almost anything.  OKC had layered in on Chet for a long time so unless Orlando would take Scoot at #1 last over the other three, there is no way he goes that high.

He'd go #1 next year because it's a weak draft.

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2 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

I don’t which has more grounds for a drop in his draft stock, being an accessory to murder or this take. 

 

Why not both? 
 

And whatever team takes him deserves to never make the playoffs. He is in large part responsible for a young woman dying due to gun violence. He should be facing a lengthy prison sentence, but instead he gets to get drafted tomorrow. What a country we live in. He should get booed every moment he is on stage.

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11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

OKC would most definitely not have taken him at #2.  Rockets at #3 maybe.

Combine the years and you prolly get:

Wemby

Banchero/Chet

Chet/Banchero

JSJ

then Miller or Scoot

I like Scoot and think he'll be a really good player but Ivey was a similar player in last year's draft and he went #5.

You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about if you think Scoot and Ivey are comparable prospects. 

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Interesting move by Boston.

I’m not a huge fan of Marcus smart. besides being a defensive pest, I thought he thought he could be a offensive focal point too much so he didn’t live up to his last name by taking too many bad shots in big moment.

They’ll be a tough team if Brogdon stays healthy(big if) or find a ball handling distributor.

Their forward/center rotation is pretty stacked with Tatum, brown, zinger, Al and Robert/grant Williams

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3 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

You have absolutely no clue what you’re talking about if you think Scoot and Ivey are comparable prospects. 

Except their numbers were similar last year and Scoot was in the G League while Ivey was playing in the actual NBA.  Ivey actually had better shooting % numbers.

I know nothing about the G League but not one GM in the league last year would have taken a 6'2" PG that shot 27% from 3 in the G League at the #1 spot last year.  Scoot seems like a great prospect but let's not get carried away.

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7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Except their numbers were similar last year and Scoot was in the G League while Ivey was playing in the actual NBA.  Ivey actually had better shooting % numbers.

I know nothing about the G League but not one GM in the league last year would have taken a 6'2" PG that shot 27% from 3 in the G League at the #1 spot last year.  Scoot seems like a great prospect but let's not get carried away.

You’re constantly twisting his stats in a way that just makes you look worse. He never shot 27% from 3 in a season. He shot 21% in year 1 and then improved to 32.4% in year 2 on higher volume. He’s also a 77% FT shooter, which is a more predictive indicator of NBA 3 point ability. Sites use 3 point shooting and FT shooting at lower levels to predict NBA 3 point percentage, and his predicted percentage is 34.2%. He’s nowhere near as bad of a shooter as you try to make him out to be, and on top of that, he’s a physical freak who’s shown the ability to rack up rebounds and assists and potentially be an elite defender. 

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19 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I know nothing about the G League but not one GM in the league last year would have taken a 6'2" PG that shot 27% from 3 in the G League at the #1 spot last year.  Scoot seems like a great prospect but let's not get carried away.

Scoot Henderson was the youngest player in G-League history at 17 yrs old.  He has improved steadily and will be much more NBA ready than Jaden Ivey despite being two years younger.

  • 17 yrs old:  14.3 PTS, 4.8 TRB, 4.2 AST, 1.7 STL  (21 games)
  • 18 yrs old:  17.6 PTS, 5.1 TRB, 6.6 AST, 1.3 STL  (25 games)
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9 minutes ago, HookEm said:

Scoot Henderson was the youngest player in G-League history at 17 yrs old.  He has improved steadily and will be much more NBA ready than Jaden Ivey despite being two years younger.

  • 17 yrs old:  14.3 PTS, 4.8 TRB, 4.2 AST, 1.7 STL  (21 games)
  • 18 yrs old:  17.6 PTS, 5.1 TRB, 6.6 AST, 1.3 STL  (25 games)

 

29 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

You’re constantly twisting his stats in a way that just makes you look worse. He never shot 27% from 3 in a season. He shot 21% in year 1 and then improved to 32.4% in year 2 on higher volume. He’s also a 77% FT shooter, which is a more predictive indicator of NBA 3 point ability. Sites use 3 point shooting and FT shooting at lower levels to predict NBA 3 point percentage, and his predicted percentage is 34.2%. He’s nowhere near as bad of a shooter as you try to make him out to be, and on top of that, he’s a physical freak who’s shown the ability to rack up rebounds and assists and potentially be an elite defender. 

So he's better than Ivey and he'd still go #3 at best last year and that's only because Houston is badly managed.  They'd have him there watching Green chuck up 3's.  Kings wouldn't have drafted him with Fox on the roster so he'd likely go to the Piston like Ivey.

If the mocks are to be believed, he won't get drafted before Miller tonight.  (A mistake.)  Regardless, he wouldn't have remotely gone #1 last year.  You're free to believe that, though.

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On 6/15/2023 at 11:26 AM, Mitch Cumsteen said:

The draft is a week away. After the first pick, anything could happen (i.e., trades, crazy shit) and things should get really interesting after #3. I'm seeing mocks with guys all over the place with several polarizing prospects that someone will reach for, and then the inevitable fall for much safer picks that everyone will say after the fact, "I can't believe so and so fell like that. How did that happen?" This is an exceptionally deep draft. There's the top 1, the next 2, then who the fuck knows.

I can't wait to see what Houston does at 4. Drafting 4th in a three man draft is a tough beat.  For all intents, that's when the draft really starts. I don't know how their free agent pursuits fit into their draft plans, but I'm seeing a lot of Cam Whitmore picks for them. I think he's a good positional fit but I think they need more high IQ / unselfish players. He and Green are both black holes on offense. Amen Thompson makes sense as a distributor, but both the twins have big boom/bust potential. 

Here's the latest consensus draft I pulled, but I don't know how good it really is. I'm seeing Derek Lively, Bilal Coulibali, Kobe Bufkin and Leonard Miller move up considerably from this. 

1 sas_25_0.gif San Antonio Victor Wembanyama 7-2 210 C France Intl.
2 cha.jpg Charlotte Scoot Henderson 6-2 195 PG G-League Fr.
3 por_25_1.gif Portland Brandon Miller 6-9 200 SF Alabama Fr.
4 hou_25_1.gif *Houston Amen Thompson 6-7 200 PG/SG Overtime Elite Fr.
5 det_25.jpg *Detroit Cam Whitmore 6-7 230 SF Villanova Fr.
6 orl_25_0.gif Orlando Ausar Thompson 6-7 205 SG Overtime Elite Fr.
7 ind_25_1.gif Indiana Anthony Black 6-7 200 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
8 dc.gif *Washington Jarace Walker 6-8 235 SF/PF Houston Fr.
9 uth_25_1_0.gif Utah Gradey Dick 6-8 205 SG Kansas Fr.
10 dal_25_1.gif *Dallas Taylor Hendricks 6-9 215 PF/C Central Florida Fr.
11 orl_25_0.gif *Orlando Cason Wallace 6-4 195 PG/SG Kentucky Fr.
12 okc_25_1.gif Oklahoma Cty Nick Smith 6-5 185 PG/SG Arkansas Fr.
13 tor_25_1.gif Toronto Keyonte George 6-4 185 SG Baylor Fr.
14 pelicans.jpg *New Orleans Jordan Hawkins 6-5 190 SG UConn So.
15 atl_25.jpg Atlanta GG Jackson 6-9 215 PF South Carolina Fr.
16 uth_25_1_0.gif *Utah Leonard Miller 6-10 210 SF G-League Fr.
17 lal_25_0.gif *LA Lakers Kris Murray 6-8 220 SF/PF Iowa Jr.
18 mia_25_1.gif Miami Jalen Hood-Schif... 6-6 215 PG/SG Indiana Fr.
19 gsw_25_1.gif Golden St. Dereck Lively 7-1 230 C Duke Fr.
20 hou_25_1.gif *Houston Rayan Rupert 6-6 185 SG/SF France Intl.
21 brk_25.gif *Brooklyn Kobe Bufkin 6-5 195 SG Michigan So.
22 brk_25.gif Brooklyn Bilal Coulibaly 6-7 200 SF France Intl.
23 por_25_1.gif *Portland Maxwell Lewis 6-7 195 SG/SF Pepperdine So.
24 sac_25_1.gif Sacramento Jett Howard 6-8 215 SG Michigan Fr.
25 mem_25_1.gif Memphis Dariq Whitehead 6-7 220 SG/SF Duke Fr.
26 ind_25_1.gif *Indiana Trayce Jackson-D... 6-9 245 PF/C Indiana Sr.
27 cha.jpg *Charlotte Brice Sensabaugh 6-6 235 SF/PF Ohio St. Fr.
28 uth_25_1_0.gif *Utah Noah Clowney 6-10 210 PF Alabama Fr.
29 ind_25_1.gif *Indiana Sidy Cissoko 6-8 200 SG G-League Intl.
30 lac_25_1.gif *LA Clippers Terquavion Smith 6-4 165 PG/SG NC State So.

Some hot sports opinions:

  • Of all the non-Scoot projected first round point guards, I like Cason Wallace the best. I think Anthony Black is a little overrated. Great size and vision, but I'm not in love with the pace -- seems like he's easy to speed up and turnover. But he's almost sure to be the second point guard off the board after Scoot. I'm not as high on Bufkin or Hood-Schifino although I like Bufkin better of the two. And if I'm being honest, I'm not really that in love with Scoot. I just have a hunch about Cason Wallace that he's going to be a great pro.
  • I favor both Walker and Hendricks over the Thompson twins. They still scare the shit out of me, but I do buy them both as playmakers. 
  • I like Rayan Rupert a lot. He's falling because of his jumpshot but his release is fine -- bad base, but easily fixable.
  • I should hate Maxwell Lewis, but there is something about his game I dig. He will probably bust.
  • Guys who I think are grossly overrated: Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Nick Smith, Kris Murray, GG Jackson. I would throw Dariq Whitehead into this mix, but I don't know how much his injury impacted him. I suppose you could say the same about Nick Smith. I could throw Jett Howard into the overrated mix, but his shooting should at least translate.
  • There are some interesting athletic bigs with big boom/bust potential: Lively, Miller, Clowney, Jackson Davis. Lively at least will be a good shot blocker and rim running big - much higher projection if you believe in his jumpshot.
  • For the late first / early second, I really like Sidy Cissoko. I don't understand why he's not projected higher. Strong finisher in transition, excellent defender with point guard skills in an NBA-made body. I probably like him better than 15 guys who will get drafted in front of him. For sleepers, I like Julian Phillips, Brandin Podziemski, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. 

 

I do not really follow the draft closely, but looking through this group Tristan Vukcevic seems like the kind of player that should do better in an NBA offense than he does overseas. I would take him in the 2nd round and give him one more year to grow as a player and then bring him over. I’d love for the Lakers to take him if he is there at 47 if they keep that pick.

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