Jump to content

2023 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Just hook it to my veins!


BurntOrange&White

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, NoName said:

i think this is a totally reasonable way to try and measure how much is on the OL vs the rusher. give the OL credit, generally, for 0-3, then partial credit for 4-8 and then no credit for 8+ and give them negative credit for lost yardage at a higher weight. ignore garbage time plays.

Bijan makes 1 unblocked guy miss behind the LOS, 2 more at the LOS, and he takes it to the house from 35 yards out and the bulk of that credit goes to the o-line? 

I'll drop it. I hope you are right. There are many reason to think our Guard play could improve. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, NoName said:

...a bijan robinson highlight video is going to start out with bijan robinson making a highlight play.

side note but using that adjusted line information above the OL got zero out of that play because it was 9+ yards, so all credit went to the rusher not the OL.

 

My bad I thought the OL got credit for the first 3-4 yards regardless. 

 

Withdrawn.

 

But I was hoping the first Bijan highlights I found did not show unblocked DL in the backfield. Call me crazy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

It helps when your back makes unblocked DL miss in the backfield. That is really my only point, I only posted the video because the very first play from the first and most popular search result showed a missed block and Bijan negating it in a way very few players did last year, for a result where the stats posted gave our LG credit for a successful play when he whiffed completely.

 

Dont get me wrong. Bijan certainly helped the running game out. Your point of Bijan's ability to make a run blocked for 0 and turn it into 3 yards is 100% accurate. That is biggest thing Texas will miss this year, Bijan's ability to keep Texas on schedule. That said Bijan probably made a couple of those a game, there we also times when Bijan didnt need to be Bijan. I think you are putting a little too much emphasis on Bijan's great plays, because they are so memorable. Hard to remember the runs that were blocked for 4 and Bijan got 5. Maybe Texas was not the 31st best OL (based on adjusted line yards), but they were far from bad. I would guess they were closer to 30 than to 50, but it near impossible to be confident in any specific number. I think they will improve. As I said I am more worried about interior pass blocking/blitz/stunt pick ups, than run blocking

Edited by Codaxx
  • Hook 'Em 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hookem2147 said:

Why can't we just celebrate the fact that our starting tackles aren't Tristan Nickelson and a guy who had a nickname centered around the fact he didn't like contact?

because this thread isnt getting to 200 pages without some good old Surly bitching. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

Bijan makes 1 unblocked guy miss behind the LOS, 2 more at the LOS, and he takes it to the house from 35 yards out and the bulk of that credit goes to the o-line? 

I'll drop it. I hope you are right. There are many reason to think our Guard play could improve. 

sigh.

this isn't on him making the guy miss behind the LOS, this is because Majors pushes him out. he also isn't close to making the actual tackle because he over ran the play Breckyn Hager style.

image.png.4b258eaf31037d383bef6a0a1ba9b0bf.png

here is half a second later with him leaning forward, notice the guys position now:

image.png.78866d303b2858e3cc6cf6e71970d5c3.png

here he is at the LOS, still untouched.

image.png.51e751a8d2a7d3114fa9d311ec71ea83.png

he makes none of those guys miss, all 3 hit him at about the 1.

image.png.20352e97ab2a7417ac55e17706c20d05.png

he "takes it to the house" after receiving the ball at the 8 yard line.

image.png.013bce77c50e5932928890533ffaf483.png

and is not touched until he is past the line if scrimmage

image.png.1a6e9ff3f50341a67ca2dc869fa0f6ce.png

***

of course there are many of reasons that the guard play could improve, almost all of them have to do with the fact texas returns all 10 on their 2 deep, let's go over a few of them.

again, here is the depth chart from the bowl game:

image.png

reasons the OG could improve YoY

  • you have a true junior returning who started 13 games as a true sophomore and played in 8 of 10 games as a true freshman (Conner)
  • you have a true sophomore returning who started 13 games as a true freshman last year (Huston)
  • you will have true sophomores as backups at both LG (Agbo) and RG (Campbell) who have a full season + full off season in the scheme and S&C program
  • you have the backup RT (Williams) who could also compete for one of the guard positions since you returned a guy who has played in 48 games, started 35 and started all 13 games last year at RT (Jones)

at the end of the day, the biggest reason to expect the Texas OL to get better is because they return everyone on the 2 deep. it isn't debatable if that is a good thing.

 

  • Hook 'Em 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

That is biggest thing Texas will miss this year, Bijan's ability to keep Texas on schedule.

As long as don't start Keilan, we will be fine. Baxter and Blue can both get positive yards without much of a hole and our offensive line will be improved in run blocking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

My bad I thought the OL got credit for the first 3-4 yards regardless. 

 

Withdrawn.

 

But I was hoping the first Bijan highlights I found did not show unblocked DL in the backfield. Call me crazy.

actually, i was wrong. i thought that's how it worked - but it isn't.

negative plays go to the OL at a 120% value, then the first 4 yards go 100% to the OL, 5-10 yards go 50% to the OL, then 11+ yards go 0% to the OL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i wish there was a way to measure this, PFF does it for the NFL but not CFB I don't think? forget who around here has a PFF sub



PFF has a considerable amount of data regarding the QB including pressure metrics - broken down by play action vs non play action, blitz vs non-blitz. I’m interested in Average Time to Throw (TTT). You really have to piece a lot of it together.

With respect to TTT, if I remember correctly there was article out there last year that stated Casey Thompson had the lowest TTT in the Big 12. I wanna say 2.72. The assertion being that our pass pro was very poor because he had the least time to throw. That’s not entirely true. There’s a decision making element too. Case in point, Card went from 3.55 in 2021 to 2.79 in 2022. Looks like Card was pressured above 40% of dropbacks in 2021 versus 31% this year. If you hold it too long, your pressure rate goes up most likely, but that’s probably more on the QB than Oline.

QE gets rid of it quick (2.44). That wasn’t always good because occasionally the ball was forced too quickly. But his pressure rate and our sack rate looked better because of it. His completion percentage probably suffered because of it.
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

As long as don't start Keilan, we will be fine. Baxter and Blue can both get positive yards without much of a hole and our offensive line will be improved in run blocking.

Plus the guy who will be the starter at RB.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is definitely not right. Ross has the athleticism to play strongside edge where Sorrell plays now. 

Either way, they're apparently not very happy with Ross. I view him as a portal person after this spring.

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

As long as don't start Keilan, we will be fine. Baxter and Blue can both get positive yards without much of a hole and our offensive line will be improved in run blocking.

While I think we all hope you're right about Baxter and Blue, it's wishcasting at this point. We know Brooks is a tough runner in garbage time, and that's about all we know definitively about the current stable of backs besides Robinson.

  • Hook 'Em 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Josef Pwag said:

Bijan makes 1 unblocked guy miss behind the LOS, 2 more at the LOS, and he takes it to the house from 35 yards out and the bulk of that credit goes to the o-line? 

I'll drop it. I hope you are right. There are many reason to think our Guard play could improve. 

6th Street sock confirmed. 

Stop being a pussy.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Either way, they're apparently not very happy with Ross. I view him as a portal person after this spring.

While I think we all hope you're right about Baxter and Blue, it's wishcasting at this point. We know Brooks is a tough runner in garbage time, and that's about all we know definitively about the current stable of backs besides Robinson.

But you think everybody is a portal person 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NoName said:

sometimes i forget it's the football board i am on and that logic doesn't apply to those people. if Jake Majors is such shit, why has he started i think 27 games in a row and not displaced?

regarding the OL being shit:

Youre Wrong John C Mcginley GIF

now was it amazing, nope. it wasn't Joe Moore Award winning (that was Michigan, who finished 25th in avg line yards btw.) it wasn't phenomenal but people keep acting like it was shit when it objectively wasn't.

Texas finished last year 31st in Average Line Yards, 30th in standard downs line yards, 33rd in passing down line yards, 8th in opportunity rate, all per football outsiders.

  • Line Yards per Carry: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)
  • Standard Downs Line Yards per Carry: The raw, unadjusted per-carry line yardage for a team on standard downs (first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer).
  • Opportunity Rate: The percentage of carries (when four yards are available) that gain at least four yards, i.e. the percentage of carries in which the line does its job, so to speak.

passing wise they finished 25th in sack rate, 31st in standard down sack rate and 41st in passing downs sack rate.

  • Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for all non-garbage time pass attempts.
  • Standard Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for standard downs pass attempts.
  • Passing Downs Sack Rate: Unadjusted sack rate for passing downs pass attempts.

sorry it doesn't fit your narrative.

also this is one of the absolute worst takes ever posted on the internet.

100% of the time it is good for you to return your entire OL. period. here was the 2 deep for the bowl game:

image.png.dffe8203af2e87d33c49a2459cf80f43.png

you really are going to question if a team with the 31st best Line Yards, who return a 3 year starter at RT (35 straight starts) and 2 year starter at C (27 straight starts) + a true sophomore LT who started every game last year, a true SO who started every game last year and another true freshman who started 13 games at RG is a good thing?!

that's without considering a full year in the program for OLs like Neto, Agbo, Connor Robertson, DJ Campbell and Cam Williams.

but sure, it's absolutely debatable for a team to return all 10 players from their offensive line 2 deep.

head no GIF

 

43 minutes ago, NoName said:

i think this is a totally reasonable way to try and measure how much is on the OL vs the rusher. give the OL credit, generally, for 0-3, then partial credit for 4-8 and then no credit for 8+ and give them negative credit for lost yardage at a higher weight. ignore garbage time plays.

Line Yards per Carry: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)

idk how you want to quantify offensive line play otherwise without charting literally every single play of the year - sorry that this doesn't fit what you want it to fit, but it is a fine general measurement of an offensive line.

here is the first TD vs OU, ball on the 2. here is a link to the actual video:

he does indeed make a cut in the backfield but do you think this was a play that was supposed to go to the left? it's not.

note the TE (Sanders) pulling inside. his first two steps after being handed the ball are towards where the center snapped the ball, then he ducks his shoulder, cuts through the line, gets hit at the goal line by those 3 guys and scores.

OU has 7 guys in the tackle box and another 3 guys very, very close to it. 9 of the 11 guys on the field crash into the backfield, one follows JWhitt running across the formation (#25 below/#10 in the circle) and the other guy stays on Worthy at the top of the screen (1)

image.png.1dac187e105423794b170a192b5762c4.png

this is 1 play out of the entire season. the definition of a tiny sample size.

glad you agree that returning the entire 2 deep on the OL is a good thing btw.

Others have gotten into the issues with line yards. You're right when you say it's an ok metric generally - but Bijan and Rojo are not general backs. They're going to improve any kind of statistical metric. Brooks only got carries in blowouts (ULM, OU, KU). I don't even think he ran behind the starting OL so his stats can't go to support their performance. 

And there are services that chart every play, as you suggest. PFF and Alex Dunlap. Those all tell the story that the interior OL struggled with run blocking for much of the year but that they did have some good games. Bama was especially impressive to me. And overall, that's understandable for two young guys. The reason the narrative exists is because it's generally true. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, BERT said:

But you think everybody is a portal person 

This is generally true, but I think he is on solid ground in this case. When you  recruit a 285 pound defensive tackle and 1.5 years later he is 245 pounds, it is fair to think you may have made a mistake. Reminds of Shepard (?) (the OT that wanted to be a TE and transferred to Blinn (?)) 

Edited by Codaxx
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Either way, they're apparently not very happy with Ross. I view him as a portal person after this spring.

While I think we all hope you're right about Baxter and Blue, it's wishcasting at this point. We know Brooks is a tough runner in garbage time, and that's about all we know definitively about the current stable of backs besides Robinson.

Can you PLEASE stop pumping so much sunshine, you're like the anti-Satya at this point

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see the spring thread off to the usual great start. Arguing over stupid shit and players who aren't even here anymore. 

26 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Why can't we just celebrate the fact that our starting tackles aren't Tristan Nickelson and a guy who had a nickname centered around the fact he didn't like contact with Terrell Cuney at center?

I forgot all about that guy. What was his name? Cam something?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Either way, they're apparently not very happy with Ross. I view him as a portal person after this spring.

While I think we all hope you're right about Baxter and Blue, it's wishcasting at this point. We know Brooks is a tough runner in garbage time, and that's about all we know definitively about the current stable of backs besides Robinson.

I sit here and look at our running back room, knowing we are losing 2 to the NFL draft, and think who would we trade with if having an option? There isn’t too many schools in a similar situation as us that I would consider.
 

To me, untested RBs are like bullpens before a mlb season, you are just going to get as much talent together and ride the ones that work out.  Would you rather have Baxter, Brooks, and hypothetically Blue or Owens and the rest of the shit show that is the RB room at A&M? Would you trade spots with OU or Auburn?

 

I think we should be fine and I hope by Halloween to see Baxter splitting carries.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was going to find a 
I love these stats, but I decided to find a run where the line gets credit for Bijan's effort. The first play of the most popular 2022 highlight vid on (my) youtube the LG misses his block almost completely and Bijan makes him miss (youtube 
  won't embed).
 
I don't know that I disagree with that analysis overall but it is obviously not perfectly objective.
 

I’m a fan too. All stats require some context. You also have to go with the data/info you have. I beat my head against a wall singing the praises of the 2021 Oline in part using these metrics.

There is some relatable considerations from 2021 to 2022. As codaxx pointed out, we had dudes averaging 6+ per carry. You simply aren’t getting much more than that. Same in 2021. Take 2005. Selvin was at 4.8 per. RT and JC were generationally gifted. So they couldn’t pull off getting 3 RBs at 6 per carry. Both 2021 and 2022 had exceptional yards per carry out of their top RBs.

For 2021, KWIII, Bijan and Robinson were top 3 in broken tackles throughout the season. Our run blocking metrics exceeded Michigan State and Bama even though we all had tackle breaking ball carriers. These same metrics were down played because Bijan. Never mind that Roschon ran off 180 at less than 100% against a solid KSU run D. In 2021, we played pressure oriented defenses and held the majority below their season averages for sacks/TFLs.

Yes, the numbers require context, but it isn’t all Bijan either.
  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

we don't yet have a road-paving o-line that guarantees 100 yard rushers in every road game

we don't yet have a receiver room that never drops a catchable ball

we don't yet have kickers that are icy coffin corner nails from 55

we don't yet have DBs that merit the "U" moniker who shut down 3rd and long stopping opposing offenses that moved the ball at will between the 30s every game last year

we haven't yet proven we've reloaded the backfield and that is a TALL ORDER and the burden of proof on this one is VERY HIGH

we don't have a human-eating pass rush that puts the fear of god in opposing QBs and OCs that have to plan for it and design around it

cheer is a lost cause and pom has been down for a decade

anything else i've missed?

So You're Telling Me There's A Chance? | Know Your Meme

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NoName said:

he makes none of those guys miss, all 3 hit him at about the 1.

 

Making them miss doesn't mean he goes untouched (at least not to me). He had to deal with 3 dudes right around the LOS, 2 that are unblocked. He took their contact, did a spin move, and went in the end zone standing up. Most RBs can't do that.

image.png

 

Those guys had time to close from further away because Bijan was tap-dancing & juking in the backfield to avoid the guys who embarrassed our interior lineman. 

Again, there is definitely potential for our interior run blocking to improve. I really hope it does. If it doesn't, we will sorely miss Bijan being able to make 2 dudes miss inside a telephone booth.  

 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I'm fine saying that I expect Wright, Blue, Merrill, and Ross to be heading for the portal May 1-15.

It's crazy, but it's almost like I might have some vague awareness of who is really wanted and who isn't for some reason.

Nu8YZuG1.gif.a5db130b2e350df19ebf338f2c545a51.gif

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Either way, they're apparently not very happy with Ross. I view him as a portal person after this spring.

Why did Ross lose that weight? I don't know many freshmen that start college and lose the 15. What was his thought process to actually put in all that effort to lose weight if the coaches didn't want him to? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Viper said:

Why did Ross lose that weight? I don't know many freshmen that start college and lose the 15. What was his thought process to actually put in all that effort to lose weight if the coaches didn't want him to? 

Lupus? Mono? His girlfriend depressed him by calling him a disgusting fat body and fucked his brother? The nutrition department accidentally handed him a wide receiver's diet plan when he arrived? No idea.

  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Lupus? Mono? His girlfriend depressed him by calling him a disgusting fat body and fucked his brother? The nutrition department accidentally handed him a wide receiver's diet plan when he arrived? No idea.

Oddly specific!  Roommate story?  Projecting?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

we don't yet have a road-paving o-line that guarantees 100 yard rushers in every road game

we don't yet have a receiver room that never drops a catchable ball

we don't yet have kickers that are icy coffin corner nails from 55

we don't yet have DBs that merit the "U" moniker who shut down 3rd and long stopping opposing offenses that moved the ball at will between the 30s every game last year

we haven't yet proven we've reloaded the backfield and that is a TALL ORDER and the burden of proof on this one is VERY HIGH

we don't have a human-eating pass rush that puts the fear of god in opposing QBs and OCs that have to plan for it and design around it

cheer is a lost cause and pom has been down for a decade

anything else i've missed?

Shaky QB play

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

To be clear, I think Texas has the potential for an excellent TB room. Potential doesn't pay the rent though. We can only speculate until we see what they can do on the field when it counts. One has played in garbage time, one ain't going to make it, one is a true freshman, and the other two are TB/WR tweeners with limited utility inside the tackles. 

I said there'd be a bunch of guys portal after the season, and, weirdly, a bunch of guys did. I said Blue would go. Blue threatened it, even announced it, and they told him to go for it and he balked.

I'm fine saying that I expect Wright, Blue, Merrill, and Ross to be heading for the portal May 1-15. Hell, they're going to be dropped off there by an Uber that Seven Win Steve calls for them. Beyond that, I wouldn't be shocked by an additional OL, another DL or two, a safety and a TE after the spring, either. 

It's crazy, but it's almost like I might have some vague awareness of who is really wanted and who isn't for some reason.

You also said Neyor was gone too. Could happen I guess  

Also, I like to pretend you just pull this stuff out of your ass. Makes it for a more fun read. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Lupus? Mono? His girlfriend depressed him by calling him a disgusting fat body and fucked his brother? The nutrition department accidentally handed him a wide receiver's diet plan when he arrived? No idea.

Bariatric surgery?

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, BERT said:

You also said Neyor was gone too. Could happen I guess  

Also, I like to pretend you just pull this stuff out of your ass. Makes it for a more fun read. 

Tough crowd. I don't remember declaring that Neyor was gone, but there was a long list of possible guys I listed. I didn't expect them all to go, but did expect a non-trivial amount to do so. So far, and I guess someone could argue that Card doesn't fit this (not me), the guys who have left were the guys that should have left and didn't harm the roster in doing so. Collins stayed, Neyor didn't declare or transfer, etc. Let's hope it stays that way through May.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re gonna need an all conference level pass rusher out of the portal to do anything of note.  That and a starting quality MLB who’s willing to sit behind Ford as an insurance policy would be great.  If an upperclassman center with double digit starts pops up, grab him too.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I'm hoping our line is much better and we don't have to rely on super athletic heroic plays by the RB to get yardage.

I would take just better with the caveat of not imploding on critical plays/times during the game. Get a bit more drive but no more mental fuckups inside our or our opponents 20 and we would be a much improved offense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think oline improves from last year, but the running game won’t be as good. The improvement in line play doesn’t overcome the loss of those two NFL backs.

However, the passing game should be better for several reasons. Improvement in oline play being one of those reasons.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, sunset87 said:

I think oline improves from last year, but the running game won’t be as good. The improvement in line play doesn’t overcome the loss of those two NFL backs.

However, the passing game should be better for several reasons. Improvement in oline play being one of those reasons.

OK negative Nancy, go change your tampon.

Sincerely,

Mr Sunshine Pumper

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, MrBig said:

Arch is much bigger than I thought he was. And I hate that the team practices so close to the freeway. 

How long before we tell soccer that they get a new stadium except it is gonna be where the bubble is currently? 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • BurntOrange&White changed the title to 2023 Spring Practice to Fall Camp Thread - Just hook it to my veins!
  • immamac locked this topic
  • immamac unlocked this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...