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2023 Masters


tx 3 putt

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Went to the final round of the women’s amateur Saturday. The much smaller crowd compared to the Masters rounds I’ve been to made the experience much better than I expected. Mostly because I knew very little about the golfers. I was there to mostly take in the course.
 

The hour wait for merchandise sucked, but with the weather supposed to turn south we made sure we shopped first. For the first timers here, it’s wise to do your shopping as soon as you get there. They open up the area with the merchandise and concessions 30ish minutes before anyone is let on the course. If they clear the course because of weather, the shop closes then too and you may miss out. They have a place where you can either check or ship your merch so you don’t have to lug it around the course all day. 
 

Also having an air bnb less than 2 miles from the course made the 3 hour weather delay much more tolerable with the patio beers. 

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

It’s going to be a wet tournament with rain forecast Friday-Sunday. At a lot of courses this makes scoring easy pickings. But at Augusta, players lose the driving distance while the greens remain firm and fast. Tough combo. 

When was the last time The Masters had a wet weekend??

Curious to see who might be the better players in wet conditions at Augusta...

 

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They've had rainy days but I don't remember a rainy weekend. Also, doesn't look lightning other than Thursday so hopefully they can play through but those rainfall totals look troublesome. Even the best course drainage in the world can only handle so much.

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1 hour ago, dieucla98 said:

FYI - masters.com (the champ at online golf experience) has Masters on the Range streaming live. Showing some footage of Tiger currently.

God what a good web experience. I just click, it brings it up, it's already in HD and sharp instantly. No pop-ups, buffering, pixelated, adblocker, registration. 

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Anyone want to join a Masters fantasy pick'em?
Just pick 8 guesses - 1 must be a past champion, 1 must be someone from LIV, 1 must be someone who has never won a major the other 5 can be whoever you like (hell pick Sandy Lyle if you like)


Scoring is as follows:
pick the winner is 75points
2nd place is 70
3rd place is 68
4th place is 66
then - 2 points for each place below 4th (so 10th is 54, 15 is 44....25 is 24 points) no negative points below 37th
for ties all players tied get the points for the position they tied (not averaging all the positions) 

5 bonus points for low round each day, 5 bonus points for no bogies in each round, 1 bonus point for each eagle a player gets

- 5 points for each player you pick who misses the cut

Tie breaker pick the winning score either as score 288  or to par -8 (which is 280) if there is a playoff the winning score is the 72 hole score (will not include the playoff)

so last year if you picked Scottie, Rory, Cam Smith, JT, Jordan, Finau, Tiger and Brooks then you would have scored 265 -  75.70, 68, 58, -5  , 4 and -5 ( I am not looking back for bonus points)

 

the prize for winning is that all the players have to + rep your winning pick post (and in the spirit of Surly lowest points should get neg'd)

I will post my picks sometime tomorrow or wednesday & try to put together a spreadsheet with guesses

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

I hope every single one of them misses the cut.

I don't know - I'd kinda like to see Phil make the cut, on the number, then hit balls into the water on 11,12,13,15, and 16. I would love to see the interview after he shot a nice little 85 on Saturday, and then gets his ass kicked by Jeff Knox on Sunday

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As someone that plans on placing a friendly wager or two this weekend, I wasted a few minutes in excel mashing together/formatting the odds from my book with historical scoring averages at the Masters. In case anyone is interested, here it is. #N/A indicates that this is their first masters. Interestingly enough, the guy with the lowest scoring average was Aaron Wise (70.25, 4 rounds) who dropped out a few days ago, but one tourney is a small sample size. 

Quote
Name Odds Scoring Avg Rank # Rounds
Rory McIlroy 625 71.38 10 52 rounds
Scottie Scheffler 808 70.58 3 12 rounds
Jon Rahm 965 70.75 5 24 rounds
Patrick Cantlay 1885 72.6 37 20 rounds
Jordan Spieth 2009 70.71 4 34 rounds
Justin Thomas 2272 71.54 14 28 rounds
Cameron Smith 2475 71.38 11 24 rounds
Dustin Johnson 2523 71.3 8 44 rounds
Xander Schauffele 2576 71.39 13 18 rounds
Tony Finau 2576 71.2 7 20 rounds
Cameron Young 2680 77.0 73 2 rounds
Jason Day 3033 71.70 18 37 rounds
Collin Morikawa 3076 71.58 17 12 rounds
Max Homa 3398 74.38 67 8 rounds
Sam Burns 3421 74.5 68 2 rounds
Brooks Koepka 3601 71.71 20 24 rounds
Corey Conners 4050 71.39 12 18 rounds
Matthew Fitzpatrick 4050 72.4 31 30 rounds
Hideki Matsuyama 4250 71.55 15 42 rounds
Sung-Jae Im 4532 71.70 19 10 rounds
Viktor Hovland 4550 72.08 24 12 rounds
Will Zalatoris 4831 70.5 2 8 rounds
Tyrrell Hatton 5650 74.05 64 20 rounds
Tommy Fleetwood 6798 72.14 26 22 rounds
Min Woo Lee 7250 72.5 34 4 rounds
Patrick Reed 7550 72.09 25 32 rounds
Shane Lowry 7550 72.82 43 22 rounds
Justin Rose 7893 71.81 22 64 rounds
Joaquin Niemann 8250 73.9 61 10 rounds
Tiger Woods 8550 71.05 6 94 rounds
Keith Mitchell 8550 71.75 21 4 rounds
Joohyung Kim 10250 70.75 5 24 rounds
Mito Pereira 10250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Si Woo Kim 11250 72.41 32 22 rounds
Sahith Theegala 11250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Russell Henley 11250 72.45 33 22 rounds
Kurt Kitayama 11672 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Thomas Pieters 12050 74.13 65 8 rounds
Bryson Dechambeau 12550 72.68 41 22 rounds
Alex Noren 12550 75.13 71 8 rounds
Taylor Moore 12550 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Adam Scott 13250 72.53 36 80 rounds
Abraham Ancer 13250 72.0 23 10 rounds
Louis Oosthuizen 15250 72.31 29 45 rounds
Tom Hoge 15250 73.75 59 4 rounds
Seamus Power 15250 73.0 46 4 rounds
Talor Gooch 15250 72.5 35 4 rounds
Danny Willett 16550 72.67 38 24 rounds
J.T. Poston 16550 74.0 63 2 rounds
Harold Varner III 17550 72.75 40 4 rounds
Bubba Watson 17550 72.15 27 54 rounds
Keegan Bradley 18550 73.36 55 22 rounds
Chris Kirk 18550 73.1 48 10 rounds
Brian Harman 19559 72.92 44 12 rounds
Ryan Fox 20250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Sergio Garcia 20250 72.99 45 76 rounds
Billy Horschel 20250 73.61 56 28 rounds
Gary Woodland 20250 73.66 57 29 rounds
Adrian Meronk 20250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Kyoung Hoon Lee 20250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Phil Mickelson 22550 71.35 9 110 rounds
Kevin Na 22550 72.74 39 38 rounds
Jason Kokrak 25250 73.3 54 10 rounds
Charl Schwartzel 30250 72.34 30 44 rounds
Mackenzie Hughes 30250 75.40 72 10 rounds
Cameron Champ 30250 71.58 16 12 rounds
Francesco Molinari 30250 73.17 49 36 rounds
Harris English 30250 73.70 58 10 rounds
Scott Stallings 30250 74.17 66 6 rounds
Sepp Straka 30550 73.25 52 4 rounds
Kevin Kisner 40250 73.21 50 24 rounds
Adam Svensson 40250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Gordon Sargent  20250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Phil Mickelson  22550 71.35 9 110 rounds
Kevin Na  22550 72.74 39 38 rounds
Jason Kokrak  25250 73.3 54 10 rounds
Cameron Champ 30250 71.58 16 12 rounds
Fred Couples  30250 72.27 28 134 rounds
Charl Schwartzel  30250 72.34 30 44 rounds
Francesco Molinari  30250 73.17 49 36 rounds
Harris English  30250 73.70 58 10 rounds
Scott Stallings  30250 74.17 66 6 rounds
Mackenzie Hughes  30250 75.40 72 10 rounds
Harrison Crowe  30250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira  30250 #N/A #N/A #N/A
Sepp Straka  30550 73.25 52 4 rounds
Kevin Kisner  40250 73.21 50 24 rounds
Adam Svensson  40250 #N/A #N/A #N/A

 

Edited by Blotto
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Get there about 730 and you'll have no problem parking. We parked at the north gate, well about a half mile from it, for free and we got there a little before 8 today. Get there early and hit the pro shop first thing. They shut the line down today due about an hour as the lines were to long. Either that or head to south gate by #16. It wasn't as crowded

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8 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Anyone want to join a Masters fantasy pick'em?
Just pick 8 guesses - 1 must be a past champion, 1 must be someone from LIV, 1 must be someone who has never won a major the other 5 can be whoever you like (hell pick Sandy Lyle if you like)

Spoiler


Scoring is as follows:
pick the winner is 75points
2nd place is 70
3rd place is 68
4th place is 66
then - 2 points for each place below 4th (so 10th is 54, 15 is 44....25 is 24 points) no negative points below 37th
for ties all players tied get the points for the position they tied (not averaging all the positions) 

5 bonus points for low round each day, 5 bonus points for no bogies in each round, 1 bonus point for each eagle a player gets

- 5 points for each player you pick who misses the cut

Tie breaker pick the winning score either as score 288  or to par -8 (which is 280) if there is a playoff the winning score is the 72 hole score (will not include the playoff)

so last year if you picked Scottie, Rory, Cam Smith, JT, Jordan, Finau, Tiger and Brooks then you would have scored 265 -  75.70, 68, 58, -5  , 4 and -5 ( I am not looking back for bonus points)

 

the prize for winning is that all the players have to + rep your winning pick post (and in the spirit of Surly lowest points should get neg'd)

I will post my picks sometime tomorrow or wednesday & try to put together a spreadsheet with guesses

Here are my guesses - subject to changes before Jack, Gary & Tom tee off on Thursday morning

Scottie, Jordan, Cam Smith, Morikawa, Xander, Viktor, Will Z, Tom Kim

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36 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

You're doing everyone else a favor by taking BDC.

Augusta is a big hitters place.  BDC is a big hitter.  One day it's going to make sense for him out there (I think). We will see.  I mean, I took Tiger as well so it's not like I'm planning on winning this thing. 

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26 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Could it be a Monday finish ?

Don't see how they can avoid it with the forecast.  As good as they are at draining water away from the course and out of the bunkers, if they can't play Friday, they're not going to be able to finish by Sunday.

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Tiger, DJ, Cam Young, Spieth, Scottie, JT, Rory, BDC. 
 
is it cheating to take BDC since he’s playing a par 67 and everyone else is playing a 72?  

BDC hasn’t played a “real” competitive round of golf in over a year and his best finish at Augusta was T-21 in 2016 or so.
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50 minutes ago, C-Man said:


*FIGJAM

Why would there be?  FIGJAM was basically right about everything he said about the PGA tour and used the leverage with LIV to get a better deal for the tour stars. They should be lined up to shake his hand and say thank you.  He took the bullets and scorn for actually doing it ( and of course tons and tons of money) and now they have basically what- 12 or 15 tournaments a year with big money and no cuts and an easy way for them to hold onto their status all throughout?  And I don't begrudge the stars that- they are the reason people tune in and they ought to get paid.  Which was Phils point and it's valid. You can be an asshole and still right sometimes.  Even Rory had some nice things to say a couple weeks ago about the changes and new opportunities for the stars.  

And the PGA tour doing all that completely undercut the reason for existing for the LIV. It seems hard to believe now that they LIV is going to get any more competitive golfers now that they've done the elevated field concept and made things so much more star friendly. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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12 minutes ago, C-Man said:


BDC hasn’t played a “real” competitive round of golf in over a year and his best finish at Augusta was T-21 in 2016 or so.

I’d put money on him missing the cut over finishing top 20. 

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Of all the LIV golfers, I think Brooks has the best chance of doing really well and maybe winning. He's back to full health and has been playing well, albeit 54 holes. Fatrick seems to thrive on being the bad guy so he may channel special inner powers and show out this week. Cam is a GREAT player so he has a chance but he hasn't been lights out in the few LIV events.

Anyway, fuck them.

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12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Probably.  Maybe.  WE will see. If he gets hot he can overpower that course.  He probably won't be but that's my one from "long shot" division. 

I’m not ruling it out entirely, but I’m not of the opinion that Augusta is a course that can be overpowered outright if you don’t have the approach game and putting to convert. And I don’t think Bryson does. 

Edited by heso
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7 minutes ago, heso said:

I’m not ruling it out entirely, but I’m not of the opinion that Augusta is a course that can be overpowered outright if you don’t have the approach game and putting to convert. And I don’t think Bryson does. 

Other than left handers who it sets up well for it's a bombers course.  And it's going to be wet so it will even more be a bombers course.  It's much more likely he finished T-42nd than top 5, but who knows. 

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Tiger, DJ, Cam Young, Spieth, Scottie, JT, Rory, BDC. 
 

is it cheating to take BDC since he’s playing a par 67 and everyone else is playing a 72?  

His best finish in 6 appearances is T21 in 2016 playing as an amateur. While you’d think he should dominate ANG, he just hasn’t played well there. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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3 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

His best finish in 6 appearances is T21 in 2016 playing as an amateur. While you’d think he should dominate ANG, he just hasn’t played well there. 

No doubt.  Which is weird b/c it should absolutely set up well for him.  I'm waiting for the logic to win out on this one but maybe he never plays it well there.  

With his huge drop in the OWGR and his US Open exemption about up he might not ever get the chance.  

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No doubt.  Which is weird b/c it should absolutely set up well for him.  I'm waiting for the logic to win out on this one but maybe he never plays it well there.  

With his huge drop in the OWGR and his US Open exemption about up he might not ever get the chance.  

I still stand by the LIV guys not competing to win because they haven’t been in that true competitive cauldron in nearly a year. BDC has been away even longer because he was hurt. However, for reasons stated by others above, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Koepka make a run at it.

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25 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Other than left handers who it sets up well for it's a bombers course.  And it's going to be wet so it will even more be a bombers course.  It's much more likely he finished T-42nd than top 5, but who knows. 

It's not a bomber's course, it's an around the green course compared to other PGA tour courses. Driving it far is as important as approach and putting here, which are both 2nd to around the green. Driving accuracy is the lowest importance by a significant amount. That is not a bomber's course.

image.png.e81e8ecb58376b9b830aa2c5a772162b.png

Edit: This is also backed up by all the champions - really only DJ is what I'd call a bomber. The rest have a great all around game, especially around the green.

Edited by dieucla98
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21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Other than left handers who it sets up well for it's a bombers course.  And it's going to be wet so it will even more be a bombers course.  It's much more likely he finished T-42nd than top 5, but who knows. 

I just don’t see it as a bomber’s course. I think it’s very lenient off of the tee which gives it the perception of being a bomber’s course. And it definitely opens the door for a bomber. But I see it as much more of a 2nd shot course. For every DJ there are 3 Spieths, Zach Johnsons, and Hidekis. Hitting it a mile off the tee isn’t gaining you as much when there are tiny sections of the green you have to hit on your next shot. If you look at the list of winners you can see that you can win at Augusta without being a bomber off the tee, but you can’t win it being only a bomber off the tee. 
 

But if you’re a lefty and can bomb it, you have a distinct advantage. 

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1 hour ago, C-Man said:

I still stand by the LIV guys not competing to win because they haven’t been in that true competitive cauldron in nearly a year. BDC has been away even longer because he was hurt. However, for reasons stated by others above, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Koepka make a run at it.

Maybe. Fatrick Reed almost took down Rory over in Dubai.  I think it's too soon to know.  DJ is always a threat- I don't think that dude needs to grind on the tour to show up and win a major, but I might be wrong.  He's playing really well though compared to most of the other guys who went over there. wasn't it like 50/50 at the US Open on the LIV guys?

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1 hour ago, dieucla98 said:

. Driving accuracy is the lowest importance by a significant amount. That is not a bomber's course.

This is how I use the term bomber.  When hitting it long matters but hitting it accurately off the tee isn't all that big a deal that's how we always used the term.  Oh- just bomb it on down there and go hit it form wherever it ends up.  Augusta has generally been won by the all time greats but the guys that do well there all hit the ball a long way (or are left handed) to my way of thinking.  It's not a Corey Pavin split the uprights type situation.  It's hit the ball a mile and go play it from there. The have brought the "second cut" a little more into play but it's still a place where you want length length length (and ability to put and around the green- but that's any golf course. 

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1 hour ago, heso said:

I just don’t see it as a bomber’s course. I think it’s very lenient off of the tee which gives it the perception of being a bomber’s course. And it definitely opens the door for a bomber. But I see it as much more of a 2nd shot course. For every DJ there are 3 Spieths, Zach Johnsons, and Hidekis. Hitting it a mile off the tee isn’t gaining you as much when there are tiny sections of the green you have to hit on your next shot. If you look at the list of winners you can see that you can win at Augusta without being a bomber off the tee, but you can’t win it being only a bomber off the tee. 
 

But if you’re a lefty and can bomb it, you have a distinct advantage. 

Speith is plenty long.  Just going back 10 years- Scottie- Long, Hideki (average?) DJ- Long, TIger- Long, Reed- Average?, Garcia- long, Willet- no clue- Spieth- long, Watson- long, Scott- long Watson again- long.  I mean that's 7 big hitters and 2 average guys and whatever and whoever the fuck a Danny Willet is.  

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Speith is plenty long.  Just going back 10 years- Scottie- Long, Hideki (average?) DJ- Long, TIger- Long, Reed- Average?, Garcia- long, Willet- no clue- Spieth- long, Watson- long, Scott- long Watson again- long.  I mean that's 7 big hitters and 2 average guys and whatever and whoever the fuck a Danny Willet is.  

Looking at stats Matsuyama was longer than Spieth when they won their respective tournaments.  Spieth pumping it up to 308 is why I said he was plenty long but he was 295 guy when he won the masters.  Hideki was a 302 guy the year he won the Masters.  Patrick reed was average at something like 85th on tour in driving distance the year he won the tournament.  

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Speith is plenty long.  Just going back 10 years- Scottie- Long, Hideki (average?) DJ- Long, TIger- Long, Reed- Average?, Garcia- long, Willet- no clue- Spieth- long, Watson- long, Scott- long Watson again- long.  I mean that's 7 big hitters and 2 average guys and whatever and whoever the fuck a Danny Willet is.  

Spieth and Hideki are pretty average distance guys. The year Hideki won he was dropping everything near the pin iirc and Spieth did well in the past because his short game was so good. 

It's why it's such a great course - there's a ton of different ways to win. Ben never hit the ball far at all and won twice there. Same with Faldo who has 3 jackets.

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