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What's happening in Iran?


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Basij thugs with their batons and guns murdering the Iranian people have a huge contingent of non-Iranian members - Arabs and Pakistanis.
 

The Islamic Republic is far more popular by the average Paki than the Iranian people themselves.

The following needs to happen:

1. General Strike to accompany the student strike.

2. Sacking of the Islamic seminaries in Qom. That would be an iconic event that would show that regime change this time is going to really happen.

3. Boycott by Iranian national soccer team players from participating in the World Cup.

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24 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Basij thugs with their batons and guns murdering the Iranian people have a huge contingent of non-Iranian members - Arabs and Pakistanis.
 

The Islamic Republic is far more popular by the average Paki than the Iranian people themselves.

The following needs to happen:

1. General Strike to accompany the student strike.

2. Sacking of the Islamic seminaries in Qom. That would be an iconic event that would show that regime change this time is going to really happen.

3. Boycott by Iranian national soccer team players from participating in the World Cup.

Blah blah blah.

You don't remove a theocratic autocratic regime with anything but execution.  Heads must be removed from their bodies.

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure.  They won't.  What Iran needs is an actual revolutionary movement, with the singular goal of cutting every head off of the theocratic autocracy.  A clever movement would be in communication with the IRGC to tell them "we are NOT coming for you; you can keep your private concessions, a leadership role in the new state, etc.  Let us remove the theocrats, and we will become a country led by a strong military (the IRGC) which allows its people freedom from pointless and counter-productive theocracy, like other nations have done."  They have to coopt the IRGC somehow, or they're toast.  And again, they have to kill the mullahs.  A lot of them.

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11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Blah blah blah.

You don't remove a theocratic autocratic regime with anything but execution.  Heads must be removed from their bodies.

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure.  They won't.  What Iran needs is an actual revolutionary movement, with the singular goal of cutting every head off of the theocratic autocracy.  A clever movement would be in communication with the IRGC to tell them "we are NOT coming for you; you can keep your private concessions, a leadership role in the new state, etc.  Let us remove the theocrats, and we will become a country led by a strong military (the IRGC) which allows its people freedom from pointless and counter-productive theocracy, like other nations have done."  They have to coopt the IRGC somehow, or they're toast.  And again, they have to kill the mullahs.  A lot of them.

Summary executions?  Trials after formal charges?  Not guilty : walk / guilty : literal decapitation?

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Just now, deadshank said:

Summary executions?  Trials after formal charges?  Not guilty : walk / guilty : literal decapitation?

Executions.  Flat-out murder.  Iran's only hope is an actual violent revolution.  The revolutionaries need to start acting like it.  This ends one of two ways: lots of dead revolutionaries, or lots of dead mullahs.  The people aren't getting trials, due process, etc.....affording the mullahs that privilege is counter-productive.

Revolutions - particularly against entrenched dictatorships - are ugly fucking business.  If you aren't ready to roll up your sleeves and get bloody, you shouldn't start one.

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38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Executions.  Flat-out murder.  Iran's only hope is an actual violent revolution.  The revolutionaries need to start acting like it.  This ends one of two ways: lots of dead revolutionaries, or lots of dead mullahs.  The people aren't getting trials, due process, etc.....affording the mullahs that privilege is counter-productive.

Revolutions - particularly against entrenched dictatorships - are ugly fucking business.  If you aren't ready to roll up your sleeves and get bloody, you shouldn't start one.

image.png.6f9bdbf3eaca0ffb1a3a858c9c95caf1.png

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38 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Executions.  Flat-out murder.  Iran's only hope is an actual violent revolution.  The revolutionaries need to start acting like it.  This ends one of two ways: lots of dead revolutionaries, or lots of dead mullahs.  The people aren't getting trials, due process, etc.....affording the mullahs that privilege is counter-productive.

Revolutions - particularly against entrenched dictatorships - are ugly fucking business.  If you aren't ready to roll up your sleeves and get bloody, you shouldn't start one.

brisket has this emblem on his briefcase.

CSPemblem.png

and this portrait over his desk.

Robespierre_crop.jpg

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7 minutes ago, sidis said:

brisket has this emblem on his briefcase.

CSPemblem.png

and this portrait over his desk.

Robespierre_crop.jpg

.....maybe.....

But more to the point, if you see any path for the Iranian people NOT being under the thumb of the Iranian theocratic government that DOESN'T involve permantently taking out a shitload of theocrats, I'm all ears.

Personally, I'd love it if they went "well, shit....I guess we're out of touch and not what the people want, and we're holding Iran back.  We probably oughta schedule some free and fair elections soon, and let everyone vote in them."  I'm just not naive enough to think anything close to that has even a 1% shot at happening.

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10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

.....maybe.....

But more to the point, if you see any path for the Iranian people NOT being under the thumb of the Iranian theocratic government that DOESN'T involve permantently taking out a shitload of theocrats, I'm all ears.

Personally, I'd love it if they went "well, shit....I guess we're out of touch and not what the people want, and we're holding Iran back.  We probably oughta schedule some free and fair elections soon, and let everyone vote in them."  I'm just not naive enough to think anything close to that has even a 1% shot at happening.

unfortunately no.  entrenched, wealthy oligarchs under the guise of religious fundamentalism...same grift as ever.

the difference is they have a lot, lot of true believers in the power structure.  it's never being given up without significant violence from top to bottom of the farcical governmental administration.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure. 

Where are you getting this nonsense from

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19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

.....maybe.....

But more to the point, if you see any path for the Iranian people NOT being under the thumb of the Iranian theocratic government that DOESN'T involve permantently taking out a shitload of theocrats, I'm all ears.

Personally, I'd love it if they went "well, shit....I guess we're out of touch and not what the people want, and we're holding Iran back.  We probably oughta schedule some free and fair elections soon, and let everyone vote in them."  I'm just not naive enough to think anything close to that has even a 1% shot at happening.

200.webp?cid=ecf05e47uoebjail5nc1wosbb7g

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7 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Where are you getting this nonsense from

Because, so far, these appear to be a new version of the same old "popular revolt and demonstrations" that we've seen in the past.  Sure, with more participation, and more pushback against the police, but it's FAR from an actual effective revolutionary movement, and I'm not hopeful that it will get there.

Hell, the narrative about the protest participants and the fuel for their fire is that they are largely millennials and Gen-Z "digital natives," who have a real concept of what the rest of the world is like.   And they do.  And they are idealistic, which is good and important.  But what this revolution needs in order to succeed is a healthy portion of cynics: people who know that the only way to change the current leadership is to eliminate them.  I haven't seen that.  Maybe I'm missing something, that's surely possible.

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An unarmed Iranian population has less than a snowball's chance against 190K armed IRGC personnel, even if Artesh sits this one out. It's going to go the way the last Cuban dust up went. The IRGC could, and would kill millions, if necessary. I'm not sure how many Iranians are going to willingly die for the change to happen.

CHIEF

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16 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

An unarmed Iranian population has less than a snowball's chance against 190K armed IRGC personnel, even if Artesh sits this one out. It's going to go the way the last Cuban dust up went. The IRGC could, and would kill millions, if necessary. I'm not sure how many Iranians are going to willingly die for the change to happen.

CHIEF

That's why they need to coopt the IRGC somehow.  And that means decisive action that gives the IRGC something to fear, and then a move that gives them a reason to stand down.  I don't even know if such a play is possible -- it's really unlikely.  But it's the best play.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

.....maybe.....

But more to the point, if you see any path for the Iranian people NOT being under the thumb of the Iranian theocratic government that DOESN'T involve permantently taking out a shitload of theocrats, I'm all ears.

Personally, I'd love it if they went "well, shit....I guess we're out of touch and not what the people want, and we're holding Iran back.  We probably oughta schedule some free and fair elections soon, and let everyone vote in them."  I'm just not naive enough to think anything close to that has even a 1% shot at happening.

Just use Dominion voting machines and manipulate them the way the dems did.  It worked for Brandon and Co (please calibrate your sarcasm meters properly before responding).

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Blah blah blah.

You don't remove a theocratic autocratic regime with anything but execution.  Heads must be removed from their bodies.

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure.  They won't.  What Iran needs is an actual revolutionary movement, with the singular goal of cutting every head off of the theocratic autocracy.  A clever movement would be in communication with the IRGC to tell them "we are NOT coming for you; you can keep your private concessions, a leadership role in the new state, etc.  Let us remove the theocrats, and we will become a country led by a strong military (the IRGC) which allows its people freedom from pointless and counter-productive theocracy, like other nations have done."  They have to coopt the IRGC somehow, or they're toast.  And again, they have to kill the mullahs.  A lot of them.

 

100000000% this

 

if im the current regime - do not engage. let them march all they want (being sure to capture a ton of video and face shots). it'll run out of steam. then you start rounding people up and 're-educating' them, one by one 

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Just now, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

if true, for those historians regaling us with what is required to overthrow an autocratic regime, i'm curious how many revolutions failed versus succeeded when leadership fled the country?

If the leadership is panicking, and cutting and running, that is fantastic.  BUT....I'll believe it if/when it becomes a real thing.  There is a LOT of entrenched mullah leadership.  The revolutionaries need them to conclude that their choices are 1) flee or 2) die.  If they're sending that message to leadership already, that's fantastic.

I'd love to be wrong about this.  I've just seen multiple "popular uprisings, this is the time!" events in Iran over the years, and because they don't actually go after leadership, they fizzle.

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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Blah blah blah.

You don't remove a theocratic autocratic regime with anything but execution.  Heads must be removed from their bodies.

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure.  They won't.  What Iran needs is an actual revolutionary movement, with the singular goal of cutting every head off of the theocratic autocracy.  A clever movement would be in communication with the IRGC to tell them "we are NOT coming for you; you can keep your private concessions, a leadership role in the new state, etc.  Let us remove the theocrats, and we will become a country led by a strong military (the IRGC) which allows its people freedom from pointless and counter-productive theocracy, like other nations have done."  They have to coopt the IRGC somehow, or they're toast.  And again, they have to kill the mullahs.  A lot of them.

 

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

100000000% this

 

if im the current regime - do not engage. let them march all they want (being sure to capture a ton of video and face shots). it'll run out of steam. then you start rounding people up and 're-educating' them, one by one 

 

Correct

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

If the leadership is panicking, and cutting and running, that is fantastic.  BUT....I'll believe it if/when it becomes a real thing.  There is a LOT of entrenched mullah leadership.  The revolutionaries need them to conclude that their choices are 1) flee or 2) die.  If they're sending that message to leadership already, that's fantastic.

I'd love to be wrong about this.  I've just seen multiple "popular uprisings, this is the time!" events in Iran over the years, and because they don't actually go after leadership, they fizzle.

If leadership is fleeing, it’s because they are aware they’ve lost the revolutionary guard. 

If they felt confident on their grip on power they wouldn’t flee as they would understand fleeing emboldens the protestors and gives them the impression they are winning.

Edited to add, I doubt the veracity of that tweet. If they were fleeing, I think that would mark the end for them. I doubt they would fold that quickly, BUT if they did, I think it’s clear the situation is way more out of control than we can comprehend.

Edited by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt
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2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

If leadership is fleeing, it’s because they are aware they’ve lost the revolutionary guard. 

If they felt confident on their grip on power they wouldn’t flee as they would understand fleeing emboldens the protestors and gives them the impression they are winning.

That's a fair read.  I'd like to wait and see who, and how many of them, are actually fleeing.  Again, we've heard these reports before.  I'm trying to find a basis for "this time it's really different" other than 1) there are more protesters 2) in more cities.  Maybe that's enough.  But on its own, it sure doesn't seem like it.

If the IRGC has turned, I'd very much like to know why, and what got them to do so.

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1 minute ago, Deej said:

"You fellas ever want to get laid again?"

"Just give us a second to discuss this...OK, yes."

A tangent that merits mention of one my wife's favorite quotes -- when she heard me say it, she adopted it as a creed.  "I don't know why women don't run the world; they have half the money and all the pussy."

Empires have fallen based on one tempting woman, no reason that millions of them can't turn the tide.  

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41 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

 

Sorry, but I'm skeptical of a single tweet.

Look--I'm not going to say it's unprecedented for a mass protest movement to overcome an authoritarian regime without violence.  But when it happens (see, e.g., East Germany in 1989), it usually happens because the regime's leaders panic . . . or do whatever the fuck happened in East Berlin on November 9.  Really--read up on that shit.  It's positively befuddling to this day.

But if the leadership keeps their heads and decides to take act, you end up with Tiananmen.  And I broadly think that is the more likely outcome.

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4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Sorry, but I'm skeptical of a single tweet.

Look--I'm not going to say it's unprecedented for a mass protest movement to overcome an authoritarian regime without violence.  But when it happens (see, e.g., East Germany in 1989), it usually happens because the regime's leaders panic . . . or do whatever the fuck happened in East Berlin on November 9.  Really--read up on that shit.  It's positively befuddling to this day.

But if the leadership keeps their heads and decides to take act, you end up with Tiananmen.  And I broadly think that is the more likely outcome.

 

The Stasi and Army refused to crack down and or shoot. The rot had gotten so bad, even they wouldn't toe the line.

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Because, so far, these appear to be a new version of the same old "popular revolt and demonstrations" that we've seen in the past.  Sure, with more participation, and more pushback against the police, but it's FAR from an actual effective revolutionary movement, and I'm not hopeful that it will get there.

They are in the 10th or 11th day of this, and it’s accelerating, not slowing down, and there is also a wild card:

30 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

 BUT if they did, I think it’s clear the situation is way more out of control than we can comprehend.

I’m not trusting that tweet, but I think there is a wild card of sorts - the Kurdish areas.  They seem to be mostly or completely under control of the citizens.    Those areas have 7 million Kurds, and if they’ve pushed out the Iranian government/IRGC, that’s huge.  190,000 IRGC vs 7 million Kurds, who probably have plenty of weapons…..

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1 minute ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

The Stasi and Army refused to crack down and or shoot. The rot had gotten so bad, even they wouldn't toe the line.

I'm not talking about that.  I'm talking about the fact that they had a press conference with no clue of what they were going to say or what the ramifications were.  They were sitting there in front of the international press corps just making up governmental policy on the fly.  It was fucking wild.

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Because, so far, these appear to be a new version of the same old "popular revolt and demonstrations" that we've seen in the past.  Sure, with more participation, and more pushback against the police, but it's FAR from an actual effective revolutionary movement, and I'm not hopeful that it will get there.

Hell, the narrative about the protest participants and the fuel for their fire is that they are largely millennials and Gen-Z "digital natives," who have a real concept of what the rest of the world is like.   And they do.  And they are idealistic, which is good and important.  But what this revolution needs in order to succeed is a healthy portion of cynics: people who know that the only way to change the current leadership is to eliminate them.  I haven't seen that.  Maybe I'm missing something, that's surely possible.

I mean, you're probably right. But we have to be careful about making claims either way with the limited evidence at hand.

This seems more violent, more widespread, and longer running than any previous protest. I've seen several commentators say that these kids have nothing to lose; they'd rather die than continue to live under this administration. And replacing the administration, not merely relaxing the rules, seems to be their aim based on the chants they're chanting, destruction of murals of the Ayatollah, etc.

Now, I take all this evidence with a grain of salt because the sources we're getting them from are biased, possibly misleading, and just too sparse.

But evidence suggesting this is just the same as the last times are equally rare and sparse.

But there's absolutely evidence that you're wrong. Being properly skeptical does not mean denying that evidence exists in place of an assertion that equally lacks supporting evidence.

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7 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

I’m sure the CIA has some “contacts” who they may or may not be encouraging throughout this process. Internal strife in Iran may work wonders to speed along the collapse of Russia’s army in Ukraine.

This.

I wonder how much we are influencing things on the ground  over there? 

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From a safety perspective, why not get your family out of the country with some of your wealth, just in case? At this point, you are approaching 2 weeks of unrest and there is always the chance things could reach an actual level of threat. Always err on the side of caution and prepare an exit strategy as despot. It’s only prudent knowing how I would expect many of the families of those tortured and executed over the years to react to the shoe being on the other foot.

I have hoped that we would some day see a free Iran, but I have a hard time expecting to see this happen until we begin to see heavy weapons in the hands of the Iranian people. I would love to be proven wrong, but I’m not overly optimistic unless we see some real troops ally with the people.

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55 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

From a safety perspective, why not get your family out of the country with some of your wealth, just in case? At this point, you are approaching 2 weeks of unrest and there is always the chance things could reach an actual level of threat. Always err on the side of caution and prepare an exit strategy as despot. It’s only prudent knowing how I would expect many of the families of those tortured and executed over the years to react to the shoe being on the other foot.

I have hoped that we would some day see a free Iran, but I have a hard time expecting to see this happen until we begin to see heavy weapons in the hands of the Iranian people. I would love to be proven wrong, but I’m not overly optimistic unless we see some real troops ally with the people.

There is a huge difference between having an exit strategy and executing that exit strategy. The latter is…an exit. Not exactly what you want if you’re in an existential fight for power.

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59 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

have hoped that we would some day see a free Iran, but I have a hard time expecting to see this happen until we begin to see heavy weapons in the hands of the Iranian people. I would love to be proven wrong, but I’m not overly optimistic unless we see some real troops ally with the people.

If things are going down In the Kurdish areas, I would think they’d have weapons flowing in there to the citizens.

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42 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If things are going down In the Kurdish areas, I would think they’d have weapons flowing in there to the citizens.

I haven't been paying too much attention to this situation but the little that I have read makes it seem like this is more of a Kurdish revolt than a general Iranian one. Is there anything that indicates that the Kurds are working with Iranian opposition groups? From what I understand the Kurds don't care for the Iranians, even the ones opposed to the IRG.

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I mean, you're probably right. But we have to be careful about making claims either way with the limited evidence at hand.
This seems more violent, more widespread, and longer running than any previous protest. I've seen several commentators say that these kids have nothing to lose; they'd rather die than continue to live under this administration. And replacing the administration, not merely relaxing the rules, seems to be their aim based on the chants they're chanting, destruction of murals of the Ayatollah, etc.
Now, I take all this evidence with a grain of salt because the sources we're getting them from are biased, possibly misleading, and just too sparse.
But evidence suggesting this is just the same as the last times are equally rare and sparse.
But there's absolutely evidence that you're wrong. Being properly skeptical does not mean denying that evidence exists in place of an assertion that equally lacks supporting evidence.

I freely admit that my expectation/prediction could be wrong, and there’s evidence in favor of a successful revolt. However, I’ll note that we’ve had similar evidence in past uprisings. I hope it’s true, I hope the regime is fleeing/collapsing. I just think that the odds are against it. Not impossible, but long odds.
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28 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I freely admit that my expectation/prediction could be wrong, and there’s evidence in favor of a successful revolt. However, I’ll note that we’ve had similar evidence in past uprisings. I hope it’s true, I hope the regime is fleeing/collapsing. I just think that the odds are against it. Not impossible, but long odds.

Just pay attention to the Kurd thing.  If they lose control of one or more of those areas

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Are Kurdish Iranians similar to Iraqi/Syrian Kurds?   Are they too also upset at how bad we hosed them a few years ago?  Also; my new Persian Jew neighbor left town before Rosh Hashanah to go “pickup” some distant relatives near Shiraz.  I think shit might be getting real considering this guy doesn’t shop for his own groceries.  

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16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Blah blah blah.

You don't remove a theocratic autocratic regime with anything but execution.  Heads must be removed from their bodies.

Sadly, this wave of protesters doesn't understand that (or at least, not enough of them do).  They still think that ideas matter, that the leadership will care and respond positively to complaints and pressure.  They won't.  What Iran needs is an actual revolutionary movement, with the singular goal of cutting every head off of the theocratic autocracy.  A clever movement would be in communication with the IRGC to tell them "we are NOT coming for you; you can keep your private concessions, a leadership role in the new state, etc.  Let us remove the theocrats, and we will become a country led by a strong military (the IRGC) which allows its people freedom from pointless and counter-productive theocracy, like other nations have done."  They have to coopt the IRGC somehow, or they're toast.  And again, they have to kill the mullahs.  A lot of them.

Aint too Christian running round the village cuttin off heads and shit

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