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Twilight In T-Town: The End of the Nick Saban Era


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Just now, Mother mopar said:

I noticed a few times where Bama was making stupid mistakes and Saban was upset but not like the years before. He would literally give out free colonoscopies to coaches and players for jumping offsides. He's not the same guy now.

Noticed it in his presser, too. I think he knows it's over. I bet this is his last season if they don't make the SECCG. 

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Before Saturday, I would have swore that Saban had sold his soul to the devil and would coach until he was 120 years old. During the game Saturday I noticed on several occasions that Saban had the look of a beat down old man. His comments after the game did nothing to change my mind. In years past, Saban would have publicly castrated his players for making multiple stupid mistakes and penalties, yet on Saturday he just shook his head and moved on. As we age, we all reach a point where we realize that we are not as good as we once were, and that day has come for both Bama and their beloved head coach. 

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The skill position point was my biggest deal heading into Saturday. McLellan is STILL your bell cow? Ok, let’s dance, he’s a bigger/healthy Jonathan gray, Aledo and all. Not scared of him, dude had 20 yds on 10 totes last yr taking away the busted 80 yarder. Gibbs ain’t there, the tight end from LY was a beast too. And Bryce was a damn wizard. 

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4 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

Would not surprise me if he hangs it up at the end of this year. The current state of the program would not win a title. Really depends on his desire to wade into the new SEC. 

Maybe Sark could use another special assistant. I hear Nick's wife still has that realtor's number. 

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4 minutes ago, Helobious said:

but there’s no reason they won’t reload.

There's many reasons 2023 Bama won't reload like 2010 Bama or 2014 Bama. The college football landscape has changed dramatically since that time, with more upheaval coming. Just a few:

1. Georgia

2. NIL

3. Portal

4. Expanded playoffs

5. New SEC

 

Every one of those alone is a massive impediment to "reload".

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The real question is, will Nick walk away, or will he demand - and get - the Mack treatment and get three more years?

Either way, if he wants to stay, they can't - or at least, won't - fire him. Not even if he follows Mack even more by losing six or seven games. 

If and when he goes, who's the replacement? Surely not Sark... he wouldn't leave Texas, we're Texas. Right? 

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The skill position point was my biggest deal heading into Saturday. McLellan is STILL your bell cow? Ok, let’s dance, he’s a bigger/healthy Jonathan gray, Aledo and all. Not scared of him, dude had 20 yds on 10 totes last yr taking away the busted 80 yarder. Gibbs ain’t there, the tight end from LY was a beast too. And Bryce was a damn wizard. 

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1 minute ago, Blotto said:

Dabo is more fucked than Saban is with his disdain for transfer players and NIL. He's either gonna change his stance on those issues, or he's out of the game entirely. 

This. That fairy tale of Dabo jumping from Clemson to Bama doesn't have quite the same shine in 2023 as it did in 2017.

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I noticed a few times where Bama was making stupid mistakes and Saban was upset but not like the years before. He would literally give out free colonoscopies to coaches and players for jumping offsides. He's not the same guy now.
He had a historic run. And is now 15 years older. He's now in his 70s. He's winding down I'm going to guess and he will ride out in the sunset in the next 5 years I'm guessing.

I'll still hold off on this is the end of Bama. They still attract a ton of talent every year. A down year for them is simply not winning a national championship.

This kind of talk was done constantly during the Patriots dynasty after any loss. It's been done on here and they went to back to back national titles and winning one. The end will come at some point, though.
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34 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Does Bama not win that game with a QB that can actually pass? We might want to tap the brakes on all this. They’re not as good as they usually are but there’s no reason they won’t reload.

no.

Bama doesn't win that game as long as Texas is playing that well on passing, getting explosive plays and having an 18% HAVOC rate.

Texas averaged about 2 more plays per drive and about 10 more yards per drive than Alabama. Texas got 15% more available yards. Texas won despite Alabama literally owning the Middle 8 (and only getting 2 FGSs to show from it.)

image.png.a209a4c899f3f36106d4b3dbee312f93.png

from a success rate perspective, Alabama actually had a higher success rate than Texas overall. they had a higher % of successful passing plays, run plays, standard downs, passing downs, early downs and late downs. Texas just beat that ass.

image.png.153e19053779e1d996ae3617455ebcd0.png

here is Ewers vs Milroe when it came to passing on a per play basis.

image.thumb.png.dc76fb64b7de7732cd47f191e8183eb6.png

using FEI's game ratings, the Texas defense played the 3rd best game of the year against Alabama (after playing the 6th best game of the year against Rice) based on Defensive Game Rating. 97th percentile and 98.5th percentile - but thats just games played to date.

so no, you fucking clown, Alabama does not win that game if they have a QB that can actually pass.

Edited by NoName
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I noticed a few times where Bama was making stupid mistakes and Saban was upset but not like the years before. He would literally give out free colonoscopies to coaches and players for jumping offsides. He's not the same guy now.
He had a historic run. And is now 15 years older. He's now in his 70s. He's winding down I'm going to guess and he will ride out in the sunset in the next 5 years I'm guessing.

I'll still hold off on this is the end of Bama. They still attract a ton of talent every year. A down year for them is simply not winning a national championship.

This kind of talk was done constantly during the Patriots dynasty after any loss. It's been done on here and they went to back to back national titles and winning one. The end will come at some point, though.
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2 minutes ago, NoName said:

no.

Bama doesn't win that game as long as Texas is playing that well on passing,, getting explosive plays and having an 18% HAVOC rate.

Texas averaged about 2 more plays per drive and about 10 more yards per drive than Alabama. Texas got 15% more available yards. Texas won despite Alabama literally owning the Middle 8 (and only getting 2 FGSs to show from it.)

image.png.a209a4c899f3f36106d4b3dbee312f93.png

from a success rate perspective, Alabama actually had a higher success rate than Texas overall. they had a higher % of successful passing plays, run plays, standard downs, passing downs, early downs and late downs. Texas just beat that ass.

image.png.153e19053779e1d996ae3617455ebcd0.png

here is Ewers vs Milroe when it came to passing on a per play basis.

image.thumb.png.dc76fb64b7de7732cd47f191e8183eb6.png

using FEI's game ratings, the Texas defense played the 3rd best game of the year against Alabama (after playing the 6th best game of the year against Rice) based on Defensive Game Rating. 97th percentile and 98.5th percentile.

so no, you fucking clown, Alabama does not win that game if they have a QB that can actually pass.

The only play I can think of that Milroe cost them a sure thing TD was the play when the RB wheeled down the sideline and had his man beat for an easy TD if the ball is put on the spot.

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Five years ago I figured they'd hire Dabo and keep right on rolling. As it's going now, they might not even talk to Dabo (and they shouldn't). Wonder if they're keeping an eye on Deion, lol. Holy shit what a circus that would be.

Most shocking thing to me is that their talent just does not look like Top 3 talent anymore. More like Top 15. Obviously still really good, but not 22 mutants like they used to put out there. RBs and WRs in particular are nothing special.

 

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4 minutes ago, animaltobacco11 said:

While all this is accurate, I am actually hoping that 'Bama is not swirling the drain.

That is because, if they aren't a merely above average team (10-2 / 9-3 type) and are a great team with one or two pieces or misfires away, then it bodes a heck of a lot better for Texas. For our strength of schedule, should we take an untimely and irresponsible L from an inferior team, for our prospects of actually competing not only for a CFP spot but in the CFP spot, and for our psychology as we take the giant leap forward this year.

I'm actually rooting for Jalen Milroe to have a better showing passing the ball moving forward. 

Like many, I've also rewatched the game and watched hours of the highlights since Saturday, and I've come away thinking this 'Bama team was still pretty dang good. Miles ahead of OU, at least.

Bama's absolute floor this year is probably something like 8-4. Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, and of course Auburn will all be competitive games. They're unlikely to lose them all but they could lose more than one. Or of course they could go 11-1, none of those teams have set the world on fire either. Personally I think the 9-10 win outcome you mention is most likely. That's not a particularly good or talented team by Saban-era Alabama standards but they are still pretty far to the right of the bell curve in college football. The Texas DL worked them but most teams don't have the defensive front Texas has. Alabama will succeed playing bully ball against most of its schedule.

A road win over an 8-4 team that would still most likely be ranked is plenty good enough to solidify the resume if Texas has the record. It will look that much better if Bama is 9-3, 10-2, or 11-1. Texas controls its own destiny at this point. I'm still a little skeptical that they will be consistent enough to put together a 12-1 type of season, but the opportunity is in front of them and they are going to be favor in every game going forward for a reason.

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I'm looking at their schedule right now and Bama doesn't have a bye until post Tennessee in late October. They really need 2 weeks of practice to fix the QB problem. I would pull the band aid off now and start Buchner. I hate the Milroe - Hurts comparison. Milroe is just an unwilling passer and can't read a defense. Hurts was never this limited as a passer at Bama. 

I think they can bounce back, but they don't have a lot of time. They'll have to score with Ole Miss in two weeks. 

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Good write up.

Also, Saban knows the new SEC won't be nearly as easy for Bama.  Despite the "SEC is war every week" nonsense, Bama almost always has an easy schedule for various reason.  Schedule something neutral site, have three other churn games, and then play Arky, MS schools, and then LSU after a bye week.  Every now and then they draw a good East team but that's rare.

9 and 10 win seasons are more likely and he knows that fan base is completely deranged.

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5 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Five years ago I figured they'd hire Dabo and keep right on rolling. As it's going now, they might not even talk to Dabo (and they shouldn't). Wonder if they're keeping an eye on Deion, lol. Holy shit what a circus that would be.

Most shocking thing to me is that their talent just does not look like Top 3 talent anymore. More like Top 15. Obviously still really good, but not 22 mutants like they used to put out there. RBs and WRs in particular are nothing special.

 

I want to be excited about this, but now Georgia is basically Bama II but with even more on field talent but a lesser head coach.  We all need aggy to score any talent that’s possibly going to Georgia so they can just waste it…

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Five years ago I figured they'd hire Dabo and keep right on rolling. As it's going now, they might not even talk to Dabo (and they shouldn't). Wonder if they're keeping an eye on Deion, lol. Holy shit what a circus that would be.

Most shocking thing to me is that their talent just does not look like Top 3 talent anymore. More like Top 15. Obviously still really good, but not 22 mutants like they used to put out there. RBs and WRs in particular are nothing special.

 

if Saban retires this year, then they are going to try to godfather Dabo i'm sure. not sure who else out there can possibly live up to the shadow Saban leaves behind.

but if Dabo struggles this year + struggles next year then they are right back into the issues they had coaching wise between Bear Bryant and when they fired Shula - outside of Gene Stallings. from 83 to 06 they won 3 conference championships. Stallings won a National championship in 92. they are much closer to Texas when it comes to making good hires than they are Ohio State.

image.thumb.png.5983af664e779fcfe7c986a555a3958c.png

 

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7 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Most shocking thing to me is that their talent just does not look like Top 3 talent anymore. More like Top 15. Obviously still really good, but not 22 mutants like they used to put out there. RBs and WRs in particular are nothing special.

Agreed. They also used to have defensive lines that would maul teams, and yet Saturday it was Texas with 5 sacks vs the gumps with 0. This team definitely looks different. 

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The only play I can think of that Milroe cost them a sure thing TD was the play when the RB wheeled down the sideline and had his man beat for an easy TD if the ball is put on the spot.

He had about 2 poor throws and 2 poor decisions. One of those picks was a 2 man route. That was probably more about inexperience feeling he had to throw rather than reading the defense. Im guessing the first we fooled him in that he didn’t prepare for what we gave him.

I’m having a difficult time reconciling Bamas QB play this year to last year. They scored more points. They had no long TD runs this year. Our defense is better. They didn’t block much in the passing game.

Young made a dumb decision throwing on the safety-non safety call. It’s also forgotten the Jamison was a hair from a pick 6. And let’s not forget Jamison went out so even though Bamas WRs weren’t good, they played against frosh getting their first real action in place of Jamison. His late game run hold was not called.

Yeah, no shit Young’s good. Just maybe it wasn’t all about the QB.
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49 minutes ago, Herpa Derpa said:

There's many reasons 2023 Bama won't reload like 2010 Bama or 2014 Bama. The college football landscape has changed dramatically since that time, with more upheaval coming. Just a few:

1. Georgia

2. NIL

3. Portal

4. Expanded playoffs

5. New SEC

 

Every one of those alone is a massive impediment to "reload".

You left off Jimbo 🤭

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