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Elon Musk: Officially a fraud and piece of shit. Official or unofficial war criminal?


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LOL.  No way that's a "material adverse effect".  People sue as to whether an MAE has occurred pretty frequently, and I think Delaware has only ever agreed there was an MAE in one case.
Elon's argument is it's a MAE since it drives revenue in a brand advertising model where there are no quantifiable interactions. Part of the calculus in turning around a company is how can you do it without cratering revenue?
So as much as it reeks of buyer's remorse I think he has a point. However:

- Parag should tell him to pound sand. He has no obligation to oblige Elon publicly. Elon can send in auditors and if then they find something untowards that changes things

- Elon challenging Twitter's claims of 5% should have occured before a bid was given. Saying he relied on Twitter's public statements like any other investor is accurate to how the process usually occurs but he can't withdraw that bid now based on a claim of incomplete information.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/musk-has-a-bigger-problem-than-bots-a-huge-twitter-debt-burden?srnd=premium

 

Quote

Elon Musk may be directing his buyer’s remorse at Twitter Inc.’s bot problem. But underpinning the deal is a $13 billion debt bill that’s looking like a bigger burden by the day.

The package, drummed up in a rush and signed by banks before the end of the billionaire’s beloved April 20 weed holiday, will leave the social media platform with an annual interest expense approaching $1 billion, giving the company an alarmingly small margin for error.

To sober-minded credit analysts, second thoughts about the deal are to be expected.

 

Quote

The purchase will be funded with a leveraged loan and high-yield bonds. CreditSights estimates this will dramatically increase Twitter’s annual interest expense to around $900 million, while Bloomberg Intelligence sees $750 million to $1 billion.

With numbers like those, Twitter looks poised to burn cash, boosting the pressure on Musk to transform the company by finding new sources of revenue and slashing costs. That’s even the case with Wall Street analysts estimating record earnings in 2022, though those rosy forecasts could be imperiled if predictions for a US recession -- Musk said Monday one is already under way -- come true.

 

Quote

“This is just a bad capital structure to put on a business like Twitter that has never proven to be highly profitable,” said John McClain, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management. “It’s been a public company for quite some time and they never have seemed to really figure out how to attractively monetize the consumer.”

 

Spoiler

Musk himself is casting doubt over his own deal, saying this week that he won’t proceed unless Twitter proves bots make up fewer than 5% of its users. 

 

Debt is only one of three components of Musk’s financing. He’s found 19 other equity investors to join him in $27.25 billion of equity commitments. And he’s taken out a $6.25 billion margin loan against his Tesla shares, but he’s currently trying to replace that by bringing in preferred equity investors, which could include Apollo Global Management Inc. and Sixth Street.

Bankers pulled all-nighters and worked through the Easter and Passover holiday weekend, rushing to meet Musk’s April 20 deadline to build the financing package. What they cooked up will take Twitter far deeper into debt, boosting its interest costs from $53.5 million during the past 12 months.

That gives Musk little room for error, though he’s not on the hook for the debt. As is typical in a leveraged buyout, Twitter will be stuck repaying if anything goes wrong, while Musk and his fellow equity investors can only lose the cash they put into the deal.

“Leverage is really high and free cash flow is going to be negative out of the gate, so that certainly adds an element of risk to the deal,” Jordan Chalfin, a senior analyst at credit research firm CreditSights, said in an interview. “Twitter really needs to grow into their capital structure and drive earnings higher in order to cover both their capital expenditures and their interest expense.”

Fears are also growing that a recession could be on the horizon, which would make this an even worse time to load debt onto Twitter, as most of its revenue comes from advertising. “In a poor macroeconomic background, the first things that companies pull in terms of marketing budgets is advertising spending,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Robert Schiffman. 

Meanwhile, selling corporate debt has gotten more difficult in recent weeks. Rising rates have hit junk bonds the hardest, and the average yield, a proxy for the cost of borrowing, has increased by more than a full percentage point since banks agreed to the Twitter deal to about 7.6%. The leveraged loan market has cooled, too.

Analysts see Twitter posting record earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $1.67 billion in 2022. Twitter has forecast roughly $925 million of capital expenditures. Deduct that and Twitter’s newly increased interest expense from its Ebitda, and the company would be burning through cash.

If Musk successfully grows Twitter, the debt load would become more manageable over time, and the company could hit neutral cash flow in 2023 and positive cash flow in 2024, Chalfin said. If Musk can’t make good on his promises to turn around the company, the debt load could become a problem.

Twitter does have about $6.3 billion in cash and short-term investments that could support burning cash for a few years, Bloomberg Intelligence’s Schiffman said.

 

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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Good for them:

 

https://www.axios.com/2022/05/17/elon-musk-twitter-will-enforce-merger?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=technology-musktwitterenforce

 

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Twitter's board said Tuesday that it plans to "close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement" between Elon Musk and Twitter, The New York Times reports.

Driving the news: "The board and Mr. Musk agreed to a transaction at $54.20 per share," Twitter's board said in a statement to The New York Times. "We believe this agreement is in the best interest of all shareholders. We intend to close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement.”

This followed an earlier statement from Twitter that said it was “committed to completing the transaction on the agreed price and terms as promptly as practicable."

 

Quote

Twitter’s board urged shareholders in a regulatory filing Tuesday to vote in favor of the deal.

The big picture: Musk said last week that the $44 billion deal with Twitter was "temporarily on hold" until CEO Parag Agrawal publicly proves that less than 5% of users are bots or spam accounts.

"My offer was based on Twitter's SEC filings being accurate," Musk said in a tweet. "Yesterday, Twitter's CEO publicly refused to show proof of <5%. This deal cannot move forward until he does."

Yes, but: Musk currently has a contractual obligation to buy Twitter at the agreed price, Axios' Felix Salmon writes.

 

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6 hours ago, gsoda3 said:



- Elon challenging Twitter's claims of 5% should have occured before a bid was given. Saying he relied on Twitter's public statements like any other investor is accurate to how the process usually occurs but he can't withdraw that bid now based on a claim of incomplete information.
 

That’s sort of interesting to think about. Had he actually done that diligence and received information about the bots that would make him want to back out, he’d arguably be in possession of material non-public information. Twitter doesn’t disclose that information and obviously wouldn’t agree to cleanse him, so he would have been locked up in his position for…a while? Who knows when that info goes stale. I have no idea if he was acting on advice at the time, but agree this sounds like buyer’s remorse. 

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On 5/17/2022 at 10:51 AM, gsoda3 said:

how exactly would selling tesla shares to finance a twitter takeover be turning scam money into real money?

because, maybe, it was never about actually buying Twitter but only saying he was going to buy it. Then he sells his TSLA and as of right now he is sitting on cash and when (if) this deal completely falls apart then Elon (and all of his buddies & financiers) will have cash instead of TSLA (or whatever else they sold to free up cash) and then they can do as they damn well please with the funds. Including buying $44 billion of lower priced stock; or that whole world hunger/student debt/water shortage/name your favorite crisis thing.

Then again, depending on where TWTR stock falls after there is no buyer, Elon might have to use that cash to fill the hole in his wallet from the shares he already has purchased; and it TWTR will fall even more if he dumps his on the market.

Edited by Wally Fairway
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21 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

Saying he relied on Twitter's public statements like any other investor is accurate to how the process usually occurs

I'm no lord of high finance, but I seriously doubt takeovers are based on public statements and other info available to we common folk.

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Shamelessly stolen from the Ars Technica comments section:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/05/twitter-board-tells-elon-musk-we-will-not-alter-the-deal/?comments=1

 

I… hurt my stock today
To sabotage my deal
Focus on the price
the only thing that's real

The NDA tears a hole
the old familiar sting
Try to tweet it all away
but the media remembers everything

What have I become
my scam-filled friend
every promise I make goes away
in the end

and you could preorder it all
my empire of scams
I will let you down
I will make you hurt

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18 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

because, maybe, it was never about actually buying Twitter but only saying he was going to buy it. Then he sells his TSLA and as of right now he is sitting on cash and when (if) this deal completely falls apart then Elon (and all of his buddies & financiers) will have cash instead of TSLA (or whatever else they sold to free up cash) and then they can do as they damn well please with the funds. Including buying $44 billion of lower priced stock; or that whole world hunger/student debt/water shortage/name your favorite crisis thing.

Then again, depending on where TWTR stock falls after there is no buyer, Elon might have to use that cash to fill the hole in his wallet from the shares he already has purchased; and it TWTR will fall even more if he dumps his on the market.

no.  if he was looking to sell TSLA he would've just sold it.  discretely.  he wouldn't have announced a potential takeover of another company using TSLA shares as collateral or the cash from shares as a means of financing.  everyone and their mom front-ran him on selling TSLA. 

8 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I'm no lord of high finance, but I seriously doubt takeovers are based on public statements and other info available to we common folk.

 

you'd be surprised then.  sometimes, if the two parties are amenable, the target will open their books to the acquirer.  otherwise, as in this case, it's based on public information and whatever private due diligence the acquirer performs.  

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15 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

no.  if he was looking to sell TSLA he would've just sold it.  discretely.  he wouldn't have announced a potential takeover of another company using TSLA shares as collateral or the cash from shares as a means of financing.  everyone and their mom front-ran him on selling TSLA. 

 

you'd be surprised then.  sometimes, if the two parties are amenable, the target will open their books to the acquirer.  otherwise, as in this case, it's based on public information and whatever private due diligence the acquirer performs.  

Yeah. Eve Williams, who was by far Twitter's largest shareholder when it went public, has been methodically selling his stake in Twitter for the last 9 years. Quietly and regularly, up or down, to divest his ownership.  You don't have to do anything fancy to do it, just not dump them all at once.

Edited by Bateshorn
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18 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And how many deals of this size or similar are done with no due diligence?  Other than Mr. Attention Whore here, I can't think of any other examples.

if you're serious about a takeover you perform due diligence.  if you're a tweet jockey riding the emotional waves of a 280 character limit you're more prone to writing checks even the richest man in the world can't cash.  from the beginning i didn't think he was serious about a takeover.  he claims he's been thinking about this since last november but to date he hasn't spoken to any serious steps traditionally taken in an m&a effort that would lead me to believe he plans on following through.  

 

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15 minutes ago, royiv said:

Interesting strategy from a man who has his wealth tied up in a company that sells a lot of cars to libtards. It will be interesting to see if he continues to double down and if it begins to impact sales.

Doesn’t he depend on a lot of government subsidies? Pretty smart to align with the party likely to run the table in November and potentially 2024. That’s all this is. 

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23 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Doesn’t he depend on a lot of government subsidies? Pretty smart to align with the party likely to run the table in November and potentially 2024. That’s all this is. 

That can easily be done behind the scenes. Musk has some Rocko in him and clearly loves attention whether it's good or bad.

 

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1 minute ago, royiv said:

At some point, it seems like a shareholder class action could also be headed his way.

There's already a couple of shareholder suits that have been filed. One is related to his delay in reporting his acquisition of over 5% of Twitter's stock and another was recently filed by a shareholder (the Orlando Police Pension Fund, funnily enough) to try to stop the merger.

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Just now, wildcat09 said:

There's already a couple of shareholder suits that have been filed. One is related to his delay in reporting his acquisition of over 5% of Twitter's stock and another was recently filed by a shareholder (the Orlando Police Pension Fund, funnily enough) to try to stop the merger.

I'm aware of those. I was referring to TSLA. If he keeps self imploding, it could start having a negative impact on TSLA. Fortunately for him, the broader market is down right now, so it's hard to discern between normal market moves and the stock being manipulated by his actions. 

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33 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

 

I so want to see all the CYA emails Skadden Arps has been sending Elon at every stage as he just tells them to fuck off and signs whatever is put in front of him.

I chortled at the passive aggression in the proxy from Skadden and WSGR making it clear they had to negotiate definitive docs in like 16 hours for this bullshit. 

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5 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

Elon needs to stop pissing off San Francisco liberals that love the smell of their own farts. F250 owners aren’t going to start buying Teslas. 

Yeah that’s it…that’s why F250 owners don’t buy Tesla’s.  Dumbass. 

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  • immamac changed the title to Elon Musk: [Fraud] Official or unofficial piece of shit?
  • blacklab changed the title to Elon Musk: Officially a fraud and piece of shit. Official or unofficial war criminal?

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