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Sbbruin

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im not sure if this guy knows what hes talking about or not but this sounds awful. 

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-gut-punch-comes-with

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In the hours after USC and UCLA defected to the Big Ten Conference, most of us wondered what would happen to what was left of the Pac-12 Conference.

Not Bob Thompson.

The former president of Fox Sports Networks found himself thinking about the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations. It’s a world he worked in for 25 years. Thompson, a University of Oregon graduate, started penciling out what losing the Los Angeles designated-market area (DMA) did to the Pac-12’s media value.

“They just lost their largest TV market in LA and ostensibly lost San Diego, Santa Barbara, and Palm Springs DMA’s as well,” Thompson said.

Prior to the desertion, Thompson anticipated the Pac-12 would land a deal in the neighborhood of $500 million per-year average over the course of the contract. That assumed an offering of games similar to what the Pac-12 sold Fox and ESPN in their current agreement.

“I guess you could take a run at adding San Diego State, UNLV, Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State or Fresno State to the Pac-12,” he said, “but none of those markets really move the meter from a television standpoint.”

The new estimated valuation: ~$300 million per year.

Essentially, a fiscal gut punch.

Thompson spent nine years as the president of Fox Sports Networks. He negotiated multiple rights agreements with the Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and ACC. He believes Fox is now “an unlikely bidder” on the Pac-12’s rights. Thompson expects Fox to go all-in on the Big Ten, perhaps offloading some games to CBS in football and basketball but not to the extent that it shared the current package with ESPN.

“Fox was probably pretty ticked when Texas and Oklahoma announced the move to the SEC and I imagine they believe ESPN was behind it,” Thompson said. “I think the days of Fox and ESPN partnering on things like the Big 12 and Pac-12 are probably over for now.”

The Pac-12’s media rights agreements expire in 2024, the same year that USC and UCLA bolt to the Big Ten. So what are the media rights options for the Pac-12?

Assuming the conference holds together in the coming weeks, Thompson views NBC as a non-player. He said CBS might be interested in the Pac-12, but would probably prefer picking up some Big Ten games. Turner has been kicking the tires on college football. It could be a potential partner for the Pac-12 — but only if Turner doesn’t first win a piece of the Big Ten.

That would likely leave ESPN/ABC to carry the bulk of the Pac-12 inventory.

“But they are certainly not going to overpay,” Thompson said.

Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff told me a couple of weeks ago that he expected the majority of the conference’s college football games would be carried on traditional television. He studied the exclusive streaming deal MLS cut with Apple, but said he expected the conference’s Tier 1 rights — the core games — would again end up with a network or a major cable provider.

Kliavkoff said the rest of the content, currently carried on the Pac-12 Networks, might be a candidate to end up with a streaming partner.

Said Thompson: “I would surmise that the Pac-12 Networks are pretty much going to be a shadow of their former selves. Think one feed instead of seven. A good portion of the programming on a streamer such as ESPN+ or something like it.”

Big Ten math led to USC and UCLA defection

The Big Ten will expand to 16 teams when the addition of USC and UCLA becomes official in 2024. The conference’s $1 billion-a year television deal will presumably be shared equally among the members.

Thompson said the Big Ten’s decision to add two Los Angeles-based universities was rooted in a simple math equation. The 14 existing conference members know they’ll receive approximately $71.4 million per university under the new Fox deal. Adding two more partners only made sense if they could generate a minimum of $143 million in additional distributable revenue.

“To get there you could assume that the bulk of the 5.2 million pay TV homes in LA, San Diego, Palm Springs and Santa Barbara become inner-market Big Ten Network subscribers,” he said. “That will add significant affiliate revenue for the network.”

Adding Southern California to the portfolio increases the Big Ten’s core TV households by 25 percent. The result is additional advertising revenue for the Big Ten Network, Fox Broadcast Network and FS1 as well.

Said Thompson: “That should all be enough to convince Fox that the additional rights fees are worthwhile.”

Oregon and Washington leave questions for Big Ten

The Big Ten appears focused on trying to lure Notre Dame into the fold right now. After that, Oregon and Washington may be of interest to the Big Ten. However, Thompson estimated that those two Pac-12 universities, along with the Oregon and Washington television markets, would only generate an additional $60 million in combined additional revenues.

It’s good money, but well shy of the $143 million breakeven for the Big Ten.

It doesn’t kill the possibility of Oregon and Washington following USC and UCLA into the conference. It just means that the Big Ten members have two options if they’re going to do it: A) Be OK with about $6 million less annually to have UO and UW in the house; or B) Welcome Oregon and Washington, but inform the newcomers that they won’t get full distributions for a while.

Perhaps this is where Nike founder and long-time Oregon mega-booster Phil Knight might factor. He has ties to ESPN. I wonder if Knight might convince that network to make an investment in the Pac-12 and position the conference to raid the Big 12. Under that scenario the Pac-12 would survive and become the country’s No. 3 conference. Or maybe Knight would simply subsidize the Oregon-Washington entry into the Big Ten.

The events of the last few days left the Pac-12’s future in doubt. I can’t help but wonder about the conference’s woeful decision under former commissioner Larry Scott in late 2018 to reject ESPN’s offer to extend their current media rights deal and take over management and distribution of the Pac-12 Networks. That deal would have extended into the 2030s and locked USC and UCLA into the conference.

At the time Scott said he thought it was best to wait to the end of the current deal. He didn’t want the conference to miss out on what might be a much larger windfall in the next round of media rights negotiations. Now, the Pac-12 finds itself in a scramble.

 

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On 6/30/2022 at 5:21 PM, Sbbruin said:

College football is going to lose so much of what I love about it.  My enthusiasm will be at risk.

Somebody needs to do a wellness check on Walton.  This may have been to much for his conference of champions heart.

Larry Scott did a lot of one-man heavy lifting  in the destruction of much of what we love about CFB.

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18 hours ago, Biggus Duckus said:

True, but most Oregon fans realized how lucky the team was to be 9-1 at that point.  The QB situation was pretty sad last year (and probably this year).

The coach leaving definitely hurt though.  I think Lanning has a lot of potential but I was sad to see Cristobal go.

Bo Nix is an upgrade from Anthony. 

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On 6/30/2022 at 3:34 PM, Sbbruin said:

Stunning.  Still processing.

Hey, cuz! Welcome to the family! Where are you going to take me fishing on your boat?

Can’t say I’ve ever been more eager to play the role of hillbilly.  :D

But yeah, it’s weird. I’ve been outspoken against the playoff. I think it’s overall been bad for college football and it will absolutely, positively expand to at least 16 teams. That’s inevitable. I thought the BCS was fine. I’d kind of rather go back to the old poll and bowl system. Trying to turn a regional sport into a national one where the playing field isn’t even across the country isn’t working out all that well, imo.

But I promise that me and my kin will get all gussied up and wear shoes and everything when we come to visit. Yeeehaw!

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17 hours ago, Gidnik said:

im not sure if this guy knows what hes talking about or not but this sounds awful. 

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-gut-punch-comes-with

 

The problem with this whole adding eyeballs in the LA/SoCal market assumes that the LA/SoCal market cares about Midwest football.  They don’t.  Hell, they really only care about SoCal football when they are winning.

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1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

Adding tv footprints was relevant 15 years ago when cable subscriptions were a main driver.  That isn’t the case these days.  

But there is still a valuation that networks place on each school and market does impact that.  Canzano just posted on a mailbag that Cal/Stanford are worth $90m together but Oregon is only worth $30m.  Oregon’s brand is bigger athletically but their market is much smaller and without Nike, they are basically Iowa State.  Neither of those valuations makes them especially attractive but $45m is a lot closer to the $70m-ish the Big10 will get.  $30m is a tire fire

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4 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

Man, I bet the head honchos on the Rose Bowl Committee ("Granddaddy of Them All") are shitting their pants right now.

Do they have 7-11's in LA?  (Asking for UH)

 

 

For youngsters:

The day the Houston and Boston College teams got to Dallas, a quote from an anonymous Cotton Bowl official appeared in a local newspaper saying that half the University of Houston students would be eating at the city's 7-11 stores, and the other half would be robbing them.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1985/01/03/Repercussions-from-this-years-Cotton-Bowl-the-49th/4976473576400/

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On 7/4/2022 at 2:51 PM, Steel Shank said:

Man, I bet the head honchos on the Rose Bowl Committee ("Granddaddy of Them All") are shitting their pants right now.

I was wondering about that myself.  It's not really a Big 10 v. Pac 10* game anymore.  

*Pac 10 is back!

Still can't believe we're going to a football conference with aggy and Miss/MSU.  I'd go to a road game in Baton Rouge or Gainesville but that's it.

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On 7/4/2022 at 11:59 AM, clapclapclap said:

Do they have 7-11's in LA?  (Asking for UH)

 

 

For youngsters:

The day the Houston and Boston College teams got to Dallas, a quote from an anonymous Cotton Bowl official appeared in a local newspaper saying that half the University of Houston students would be eating at the city's 7-11 stores, and the other half would be robbing them.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1985/01/03/Repercussions-from-this-years-Cotton-Bowl-the-49th/4976473576400/

On nearly every damn street corner.  Remember when the original Big Gulp was the biggest drink you could ever imagine at 32 oz?  I went to a Regal theater recently and the SMALL was 32 oz.  Good lord what a bunch of fatties we are.

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On 7/4/2022 at 6:52 AM, Texzilla58 said:


Utah, AZ schools, Colorado talking to big 12…pac could be in real doodoo. The coastal schools would never get political approval to join a conference with schools in Texas or Oklahoma or a baptist school.

This is what makes the most sense, at least for now.  Not sure how this plays out for Oregon or UW, though.  They want to go to B1G, but it sounds like that invite ain't happening just yet.

 

Saw this and it cracked me up.  No love lost from CU's former B12 conference mates, I see...

 

 

Edited by Chewbacca
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2 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

Who are they going to schedule for the plethora of Olympic sports that none of the B1G conference plays?  If I’m former PAC schools I’d tell them to go pound sand.  

Yeah, I'd love to see the remaining P12 schools tell them to fuck off for scheduling.  Their timing really screwed the 10 schools that are left with the negotiation of the media deal just starting.  No big deal losing SoCal as a media market, right?

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7 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

Who are they going to schedule for the plethora of Olympic sports that none of the B1G conference plays?  If I’m former PAC schools I’d tell them to go pound sand.  

Don't the UC system schools play the Olympic sports, too? UC-Davis, Santa Barbara, Irvine, etc.? And the Cal State schools? There is no "Power 5" for Olympic, non-rev sports.

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On 7/4/2022 at 7:13 AM, Upgrayedd said:

The problem with this whole adding eyeballs in the LA/SoCal market assumes that the LA/SoCal market cares about Midwest football.  They don’t.  Hell, they really only care about SoCal football when they are winning.

There are alot of Midwest transplants out here.  Have an Iowa friend that invited us to watch a couple of games at a large bar and the place was packed each time.  And that's replicated across LA with other B10 teams.  May not move the needle much, but just an anecdote.

I'm not a fan of all this btw. It just seems unnatural to me as a long time CFB fan. But I think expanding the B10 footprint on television to LA is a smart move for both parties, as noted by SBBruin's LAT money article.

* And I'm quietly chuckling at seeing the UCLA/USC B10 schedule that may have either playing Michigan, MSU or Ohio State in late November, early December.  Wouldn't be surprised to if there was a hidden paragraph in this agreement that ensured that won't ever happen. *

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3 hours ago, Mach 1 said:

There are alot of Midwest transplants out here.  Have an Iowa friend that invited us to watch a couple of games at a large bar and the place was packed each time.  And that's replicated across LA with other B10 teams.  May not move the needle much, but just an anecdote.

I'm not a fan of all this btw. It just seems unnatural to me as a long time CFB fan. But I think expanding the B10 footprint on television to LA is a smart move for both parties, as noted by SBBruin's LAT money article.

* And I'm quietly chuckling at seeing the UCLA/USC B10 schedule that may have either playing Michigan, MSU or Ohio State in late November, early December.  Wouldn't be surprised to if there was a hidden paragraph in this agreement that ensured that won't ever happen. *

I keep reading comments about the weather and I get that the perception of the PAC 12 is all sunshine and beach parties, but you do realize that SC and UCLA have had to play at places like Pullman, Salt Lake City and Boulder in November/December?  Many times those games are in ice and snow. If not those places, you get the steady 40 degree downpours in Seattle, Eugene and Corvallis. Or the one kajillion degrees in Tempe in September.

The weather angle is so overrated IMO.

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3 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

i wonder if this is just more of dennis dodd not knowing what the fuck is going on or if everything is really moving this fast

I’m sure it was part of a brainstorming session but reported as more serious than it was. It might make some sense but the PAC would need to add some teams from the XII and it’s looking more like the other way around.

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and then there is this lol

https://theathletic.com/news/big-12-pac-12/xr0KkM54sW9e/

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The Big 12 is in “serious” talks with six Pac-12 members, sources told The Athletic. Those schools are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington, sources said.

It’s unclear how long it would take for the Big 12 to secure a deal on expansion efforts. Sources expressed optimism that new Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, hired last week, can pull it off.

The Pac-12, despite losing two flagship schools in USC and UCLA last week, is “not panicked,” a source told The Athletic. One option for the Pac-12 is to form a partnership with the ACC, so both conferences don’t fall too far behind the SEC and Big Ten in terms of annual revenue.

Another factor is what Oregon and Washington might do. A former Pac-12 administrator put it in simple terms Tuesday: Oregon and Washington trump anything the Big 12 can offer.

For more on what’s going on with the Big 12 and Pac-12 conferences, read the full story in the Go Deeper section below.

 

Quote

The reverberations from USC and UCLA exiting the Pac-12 for the Big Ten continue. The Big 12 intends to position itself to scoop up the most desirable remaining Pac-12 members, turning the tables on how things stood a year ago. The Pac-12 will enact its own plan, but, perhaps most importantly, can it hold on to Oregon and Washington? Meanwhile, questions loom at the national level. While all eyes are on what Notre Dame will do, what’s there to make of North Carolina? The Athletic staff dives into the latest realignment developments.

The Big 12 on the offensive?

The Big 12 has been given an unexpected opportunity to strengthen its position among the Power 5 conferences. Its new commissioner doesn’t want to waste it.

The league is having “serious” talks with six Pac-12 schools — Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington — and is determined to move quickly, sources told The Athletic. Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, hired just last week, has been described as “super aggressive” by one source and has the backing of the Big 12 presidents and chancellors to pursue the addition of Pac-12 members.

It’s unclear just how quickly the Big 12 could get a deal done on its expansion efforts, but those sources expressed optimism that Yormark can pull it off. CBS Sports first reported the Big 12 was in discussions about adding multiple Pac-12 schools.

 

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13 hours ago, Mach 1 said:

There are alot of Midwest transplants out here.  Have an Iowa friend that invited us to watch a couple of games at a large bar and the place was packed each time.  And that's replicated across LA with other B10 teams.  May not move the needle much, but just an anecdote.

I'm not a fan of all this btw. It just seems unnatural to me as a long time CFB fan. But I think expanding the B10 footprint on television to LA is a smart move for both parties, as noted by SBBruin's LAT money article.

* And I'm quietly chuckling at seeing the UCLA/USC B10 schedule that may have either playing Michigan, MSU or Ohio State in late November, early December.  Wouldn't be surprised to if there was a hidden paragraph in this agreement that ensured that won't ever happen. *

My point is that they are tuned in now.  What marginal viewership bump does $C/UcLA provide beyond the two games they play?

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4 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

UcLA is messed up financially.  They have to rent?


That’s how it works with some of the State schools, some facilities are designated “profit centers”, and charge for usage. When I worked at Cal State Long Beach, they had opened The Pyramid, where indoor sports played. I don’t know if the athletic teams had to pay, but everyone else was charged rent. It just depends on how the building was financed.
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17 minutes ago, USC_TMB said:
26 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

UcLA is messed up financially.  They have to rent?


That’s how it works with some of the State schools, some facilities are designated “profit centers”, and charge for usage. When I worked at Cal State Long Beach, they had opened The Pyramid, where indoor sports played. I don’t know if the athletic teams had to pay, but everyone else was charged rent. It just depends on how the building was financed.

Yeah, and it would be the university that would have ot bail them out if needed, so it would be in one hand out the other anyway.

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Yeah, and it would be the university that would have ot bail them out if needed, so it would be in one hand out the other anyway.

It's really no different than universities requiring the AD to "reimburse" them for athlete's tuition.  Just another way that the universities can claim that athletics don't make any money!

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I'm fine with the Pac 10 staying together. I honestly don't see a reason to either go to the Big 12 or merge with the Big 12 as I don't see ESPN or Fox paying more either way. Just stay at 10 until Notre Dame decides what to do as that will be the next domino to fall. If Notre Dame gets a nice payday from NBC to stay indy, I think that puts the brakes on expansion. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, mdmost said:

I'm fine with the Pac 10 staying together. I honestly don't see a reason to either go to the Big 12 or merge with the Big 12 as I don't see ESPN or Fox paying more either way. Just stay at 10 until Notre Dame decides what to do as that will be the next domino to fall. If Notre Dame gets a nice payday from NBC to stay indy, I think that puts the brakes on expansion. 

 

 

I'm not sure why any of the remaining schools (particularly CU/UU/UA/ASU) would trust Oregon or Washington at this point.  They've already shown their hand and they are out the door if the B1G ever comes calling.  Why should those other schools sit around and wait to get fucked if that happens?  That's why a B12 move makes sense, IMO.

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13 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm not sure why any of the remaining schools (particularly CU/UU/UA/ASU) would trust Oregon or Washington at this point.  They've already shown their hand and they are out the door if the B1G ever comes calling.  Why should those other schools sit around and wait to get fucked if that happens?  That's why a B12 move makes sense, IMO.

Exactly. 

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32 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm not sure why any of the remaining schools (particularly CU/UU/UA/ASU) would trust Oregon or Washington at this point.  They've already shown their hand and they are out the door if the B1G ever comes calling.  Why should those other schools sit around and wait to get fucked if that happens?  That's why a B12 move makes sense, IMO.

Because unless the money is better, why move? A lot of those schools need the regionality. You're not going to get that if you have to play in a conference with West Virginia and Iowa State. I have a hard time believing the money will be better when you add 4 more onto 12 and the numbers don't get significantly higher. 

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3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Because unless the money is better, why move? A lot of those schools need the regionality. You're not going to get that if you have to play in a conference with West Virginia and Iowa State. I have a hard time believing the money will be better when you add 4 more onto 12 and the numbers don't get significantly higher. 

Why move?  Stability.  UO and UW leaving the Pac kills the conference now that SC and UCLA are gone (and you can bet that any media deal the Pac gets will be conditional on those 2 staying).  The 4 schools I mentioned need to make sure they don't get left without a seat.  I don't relish the thought of going back to the B12, but it's better than a neutered Pac at this point.  You can't count on UO or UW and you know it.

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

Why move?  Stability.  UO and UW leaving the Pac kills the conference now that SC and UCLA are gone (and you can bet that any media deal the Pac gets will be conditional on those 2 staying).  The 4 schools I mentioned need to make sure they don't get left without a seat.  I don't relish the thought of going back to the B12, but it's better than a neutered Pac at this point.  You can't count on UO or UW and you know it.

everyone on this forum should know it was debilitating to the Big 12 to have the constant talk of Texas and OU leaving

I am sure it hurt recruiting (even for Texas and OU to a degree), it guaranteed hurt perception......in spite of years of factual stories showing The Big 12 was making more money every year (excluding any 3rd tier no matter what anyone thought those values were) than the ACC and PAC 12 people constantly thought the Big 12 was last financially and getting worse....in addition the Big 12 is in massively better shape with athletics department debt and the very very low or non-existent academic side annual budget subsidies especially relative to the PAC 12 and to the ACC as well

hell people thought that some Big 12 members might have to beg to get in the AAC or MWC

take that and transfer it over to the PAC 12 now with UW and Oregon and then when people start looking at finances after the new TV deals (especially if the Big 12 is still better off and the ACC finally is better off than the PAC 12) and it will just drag them further down

 

in addition right now there is little or no cost to leave the PAC 12 while for the Big 12 even with the GOR gone the separate contract for conference membership (with 89 years left on it) still has the exit fees that will total close to $90 million here soon......in addition to that there is the $20+ million share of the exit fees from Texas and OU to share with the current 8 members of the Big 12

so a Big 12 member is looking at giving up $100+ million up front to move to the PAC 12......that does not of course make the Big 12 a more attractive option for a PAC 12 member, but it is something they need to consider about luring a Big 12 member in the future if UW and Oregon leave and they also have to consider the instability that will exist until such time as ND makes a move or the Big 10 decided ND is not happening and POSSIBLY decided to make other moves......even if the Big 10 never calls another  PAC 12 team the uncertainty and the expectations that it will happen will continue for a long time (a decade or more probably)

 

as for UCLA renting facilities I have for years that Texas is the leader in the clubhouse when it comes to how to transfer athletics money to the academic side.....I can guarantee you that if the physics department pays $1 to have a light bulb changed in the buildings they have a claim to then the athletics department pays those same facilities services people $39.95 to have theirs changed in Belmont....I am pretty sure the parking situation is worse and athletics pays something like 100X what is calculated for students and I think the game day police charges probably cover half an officers salary for the year to provide game day security for a single game

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15 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

My point is that they are tuned in now.  What marginal viewership bump does $C/UcLA provide beyond the two games they play?

I’m not sure who you mean by “they.” But it’s not about viewership. Expanding the B1G footprint into the L.A. market will result in much more lucrative TV deals for the conference. And if history is an indicator then it will mean BTN will be carried on the standard cable and satellite packages which will benefit all of the conference fans in that area. I don’t know whether it will apply to the whole state of California or not. What a boon that would be.

Before joining the conference, Nebraska fans could only watch some of their games on pay-per-view. Imagine that. After adding Rutgers and Maryland, there are a whole lot of residents of NYC/Jersey and Maryland/D.C. who get BTN and it doesn’t really matter if not all of them tune in. If you only get a small percentage of the NYC market to tune in then that’s still a lot of eyeballs. The same will be true with L.A. Having America’s three largest cities in the footprint is a pretty big deal from a marketing standpoint.

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  • blacklab changed the title to All encompassing PAC 4 thread

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