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Posted

I am curious to see if quantum computing ends up being a systemic threat to proof of work algorithms, and BTC in particular. This is a good defcon talk on the topic of quantum attacks in general, timestamped to the brief blurb on how it impacts cryptocurrencies

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I looked into texit coin a few months ago. It's a scam, pure and simple.

 

chipmunk-dramatic.gif.696a386fa98c5275347c80fd4c49cd16.gif

thats some fine detective work. I hope it didnt take you more than 10 seconds

Edited by Blotto
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Posted
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

I looked into texit coin a few months ago. It's a scam, pure and simple.

 

whew just in time, I was about to hit the buy button. thanks, I owe you one.

Posted

Disclaimer-  I hold no bitcoin or crypto and as evidenced by previous posts am not knowledgeable in the space.

 

This got fed to me by Reddit yesterday, I assume because I looked up Bitcoin/USD price on google earlier in the day.

 

 

I would love to hear counter narratives from Crypto bulls, most specifically about electricity cost and miner death spiral.

Posted (edited)

I'm not a bull by any means, I have modest holdings and will be buying this decline soon not sure the entry point, catching a falling knife is hard.

I don't think that analysis takes into consideration the long term sentiment by some really well regarded wall streeters on BTC, it doesn't take into consideration the early stage and growing adoption through ETFs and retirement plans, the basic supply and demand issues either.  I read some analysis that the folks selling right now are new to the trade (last 3 years) and that there are still some very large investors that are just simply holding.  there is fierce resistance around 98,000 and so it is very likely a new ATH is not coming soon. There are short term and mid term technical trade issues that may cause additional drops and keep it under that 98,000 number. There is also a lot of fear re BTC right now because of this recent drop (Warren Buffett's investing advice comes to mind), but the macro reasons to like BTC for a long term hold store of wealth, appreciating value, are all still there.

btw none of that math looks terribly broken to me. you can still make over 3x your spend according to his math.  he's also laughably wrong about mining being a contagion for a global economic collapse. the economic collapse if one is coming is due to currency issues, tariffs, soft labor market with inflationary pressure, and the AI funny math with the big chip makers financing their own revenue. 

But for miners and chip purchases, the high end, AI semi industry is what is driving half of all GDP growth but that also includes all the companies trying to create new AI products and services. We all know those companies - off the top of my head companies I've watched for AI related reasons (excluding hardware mfgs) - palantir, snowflake, confulent, datadog, databricks, meta, amazon, alphabet, microsoft, etc. etc. there's no reliable data out there but miners appear to account for 25% of all chip sales (which is low, mid and high end chips) but that's not the market driver, the high end AI GPUs are the drivers and I don't think the miners have anything close to a large share of the high end NVIDA and AMD chips.  

His cash is king comment is equally as funny. Yes that's true, but cash is eroding at a hideous rate right now if you think about the complacency among those who can have an impact on inflation. staying in cash is stupid. gold is up 53% this year. Silver is up 70% this year. Cash? purchasing power of cash has declined almost 3% and that's assuming inflation data is accurate. certainly one can invest cash in cash equivalents, yay, we made 1% this year on cash.  

Basically, he's kind of an idiot.

Haters are always going to hate and they will be out in force right now, but nothing going on right now has an impact on the 5-10 year outlook and frankly the economic collapse that may occur should drive many to gold, silver, cash and BTC, not the other way around. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted

I'll add this, I invest in BTC through an ETF. when I added that to my portfolio I was stopped dead in my sign up tracks and told by an automated notice that BTC was expressly contrary to my stated goals (it wasn't really but I checked some box below being the most aggressive in my choices). I had to consent to continue and then I had another warning pop-up that said I should be aware of extreme volatility in the BTC trade. 

it is what it is, if you believe the marcro (I do), then BTC should be part of your portfolio just like gold and silver should be as well for the reasons why investors flock to precious metals.   

 

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Posted

For the first time since that douchenozzle Saylor decided he wanted to be the BTC King, the market cap of Strategy (MSTR) fell below the value of its BTC holdings last week. As of this morning according to their IR page, MSTR now trading 10% below the value of its BTC. Looking good Mike! Strong like bull!

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Posted (edited)

99%+ of people who are heavily invested in bitcoin are doing so as an act of faith,  nothing more.  It has no meaningful function as a transactional currency.  It has no way of returning value other than price appreciation.  It acts as a store of value for believers.  You can pretty much say the same thing about gold and silver.  So whether you buy it or short it is determined by whether you think the faith will grow or collapse.  It’s purely a speculative investment.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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Posted
25 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

You can pretty much say the same thing about gold and silver.

Gold and silver at least have practical uses and material properties that give them utility. Definitely still speculated upon which drives up the price, but there's actual products and services rendered with gold and silver

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Posted
2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Gold and silver at least have practical uses and material properties that give them utility. Definitely still speculated upon which drives up the price, but there's actual products and services rendered with gold and silver

Sure.  Bitcoin is an actual product as well; it can be used as a transactional currency with a self maintained ledger.  But like gold and silver, such a large percentage of its value comes from speculative investment that the value from its actual utility is meaningless.

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sure.  Bitcoin is an actual product as well; it can be used as a transactional currency with a self maintained ledger.  But like gold and silver, such a large percentage of its value comes from speculative investment that the value from its actual utility is meaningless.

This is my view 100% as long as speculation isn’t a dirty word, half of investments are speculation, the other half are split between say Buffett style buy good companies at low values and technical whatever algo hedgy shit MIT math grads do.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
29 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

This is my view 100% as long as speculation isn’t a dirty word, half of investments are speculation, the other half are split between say Buffett style buy good companies at low values and technical whatever algo hedgy shit MIT math grads do.

Well sure, but it’s what is driving the speculation.  For things like real estate and publicly traded companies, there’s underlying utility driving the speculative value.  For Bitcoin (and precious metals), it’s blind faith.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Well sure, but it’s what is driving the speculation.  For things like real estate and publicly traded companies, there’s underlying utility driving the speculative value.  For Bitcoin (and precious metals), it’s blind faith.

right but there's a ton of blind faith in auto invest 401k contributions to an S&P 500 mutual fund as an example. I'm not sure utility is as connected to the investment as it should across the board.  I've recently decided investing may be my retirement hobby and based on some professional background value investing (the buffett way) is something I could pull off to a modest level of success and I can say in that instance utility is 100% of the equation but just because it could be part of the equation doesn't mean it is for many many investors.  I think that's why the market sometimes acts like a coked out whore or a 5 year old scared of the dark, or a toddler throwing a tantrum tbqh.

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
right but there's a ton of blind faith in auto invest 401k contributions to an S&P 500 mutual fund as an example. I'm not sure utility is as connected to the investment as it should across the board.  I've recently decided investing may be my retirement hobby and based on some professional background value investing (the buffett way) is something I could pull off to a modest level of success and I can say in that instance utility is 100% of the equation but just because it could be part of the equation doesn't mean it is for many many investors.  I think that's why the market sometimes acts like a coked out whore or a 5 year old scared of the dark, or a toddler throwing a tantrum tbqh.

The fact that the stock market has become an irrational meme-stock and utter speculation based investment is not a vindication of the completely speculative and irrational basis of crypto. It’s an indictment of both.
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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


The fact that the stock market has become an irrational meme-stock and utter speculation based investment is not a vindication of the completely speculative and irrational basis of crypto. It’s an indictment of both.

I'm more neutral about it but as for pure speculation if crypto is so is the market for 90% of investors. the fucking dollar is as artificial as crypto for that matter. value is what society says it is. there's nothing inherently unique about crypto that makes it (pejorative) pure speculation.  outside of warren buffett style investing I think it's all kind of the same, we buy and hold because others want to buy and hold. we use this thing as currency because others use it too. we bury gold in the backyard because we know gold has been valuable since the beginning of time. 

Posted
6 hours ago, scramblyn said:

I'm more neutral about it but as for pure speculation if crypto is so is the market for 90% of investors. the fucking dollar is as artificial as crypto for that matter. value is what society says it is. there's nothing inherently unique about crypto that makes it (pejorative) pure speculation.  outside of warren buffett style investing I think it's all kind of the same, we buy and hold because others want to buy and hold. we use this thing as currency because others use it too. we bury gold in the backyard because we know gold has been valuable since the beginning of time. 

TLDR - financial nihilism

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Posted
19 hours ago, scramblyn said:

I'm more neutral about it but as for pure speculation if crypto is so is the market for 90% of investors. the fucking dollar is as artificial as crypto for that matter. value is what society says it is. there's nothing inherently unique about crypto that makes it (pejorative) pure speculation.  outside of warren buffett style investing I think it's all kind of the same, we buy and hold because others want to buy and hold. we use this thing as currency because others use it too. we bury gold in the backyard because we know gold has been valuable since the beginning of time. 

Sorry but this is crypto bro bullshit.

Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sorry but this is crypto bro bullshit.

Whatever, I’m not a crypto bro, I’m agnostic, I kinda like the nihilism descriptor above. I know folks that think crypto is going to change the world, eh fuck that, I just want a reasonable return on investment and think assets that are non-correlated or contra-correlated are smart to have in your portfolio. Frankly, I like direct investments in real estate, private credit and private equity  better than all of them. So someone else can see a facial profile of Jesus or mother Mary in the historical returns of BTC when you flip it sideways, I am not a true believer, I just want to make money.  

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, scramblyn said:

Whatever, I’m not a crypto bro, I’m agnostic, I kinda like the nihilism descriptor above. I know folks that think crypto is going to change the world, eh fuck that, I just want a reasonable return on investment and think assets that are non-correlated or contra-correlated are smart to have in your portfolio. Frankly, I like direct investments in real estate, private credit and private equity  better than all of them. So someone else can see a facial profile of Jesus or mother Mary in the historical returns of BTC when you flip it sideways, I am not a true believer, I just want to make money.  

You might not be a crypto bro but you are repeating crypto bro talking points.  The ideas that cryptocurrency has as much underlying utility as publicly traded stocks or that the US dollar is as “artificial” as bitcoin cannot be described as anything other than fucking stupid.  There’s also no convincing evidence that crypto is “non-correlated” or contra-correlated” to more traditional investments.  If anything crypto is just a more volatile leading indicator for more traditional investments.  When bad times hit, it’s the first thing everyone will dump, when there’s boatloads of excess cash floating around and nowhere to put it, bitcoin skyrockets.  It is a store of value based on blind faith.  You can glorify “financial nihilism”, but I am pretty sure that’s just another term for gambling.  You can write off “Warren Buffett style investing”, but I’m pretty sure that’s just another term for “investing in actual value”.

Edited by Snake Diggity
Posted
16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

You might not be a crypto bro but you are repeating crypto bro talking points.  The ideas that cryptocurrency has as much underlying utility as publicly traded stocks or that the US dollar is as “artificial” as bitcoin cannot be described as anything other than fucking stupid.  There’s also no convincing evidence that crypto is “non-correlated” or contra-correlated” to more traditional investments.  If anything crypto is just a more volatile leading indicator for more traditional investments.  When bad times hit, it’s the first thing everyone will dump, when there’s boatloads of excess cash floating around and nowhere to put it, bitcoin skyrockets.  It is a store of value based on blind faith.  You can glorify “financial nihilism”, but I am pretty sure that’s just another term for gambling.  You can write off “Warren Buffett style investing”, but I’m pretty sure that’s just another term for “investing in actual value”.

You completely missed my point. How one invests at least partially defines utility.
 

Blindly dollar cost averaging into an index fund is pretty fucking stupid. Why do people do it? Because “the market on average always goes up.” Well shit, 490 of the 500 have shit returns, don’t be lazy, figure out the underlying utility and invest accordingly, you’d do a lot better.  

There is an underlying utility for BTC, you may not like it or you may think it’s absurd, and I get it, until 12-18 months ago I thought the same. Fuck it, there is a utility here and I’d argue not as currency but more like a commodity, and I plan to take advantage of it as I can.

so instead of saying that’s crypto bro shit - and for the record I haven’t spent one minute reading crypto bro bullshit - you might ask what does it mean that mainstream investors, wall streeters, 401k plans, ETFs from big institutions coming on line and adopting crypto - at least BTC - at increasing frequency mean for investors, because that to me is the more important question, not whatever crypto bro bullshit says for the true believers. 

Posted
12 hours ago, scramblyn said:

There is an underlying utility for BTC, you may not like it or you may think it’s absurd, and I get it, until 12-18 months ago I thought the same. Fuck it, there is a utility here and I’d argue not as currency but more like a commodity, and I plan to take advantage of it as I can.

Great, so what's the utility?

Posted
On 11/16/2025 at 3:20 PM, Captainant said:

Getting emotional and calling someone a dog is an interesting way to cede that you don't have a meaningful response or counter position for why a ledger entry is a commodity or security

I wasn’t calling you a ruff ruff dog I was calling you a dog like hey man or dude or whatever. But yeah accuse me of no substantive response after I’ve given several in a row. Buy sell use hold or don’t buy sell use or hold BTC I don’t give a fuck.

Posted

the difference between crypto and beanie babies is (1) it leverages the abstractness of things like money and stocks to say anyone can create something abstract and it'll behave similarly; (2) timing, such that it comes about in a gilded age where hard work has completely decoupled from wealth generation, and a substantial portion of the world thinks riches can simply appear.

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Posted
6 hours ago, Cyrus the Great said:

What are the practical uses of gold?

Circuitry components, teeth fillings, aerospace applications, jewelry (which is in itself a "useless" item but try telling my wife that), hell your cell phone has about 20mg of gold in it just in its circuits and traces. Basically every electronic item you own contains gold for component connections and low-resistance traces

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Posted
9 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

the difference between crypto and beanie babies is (1) it leverages the abstractness of things like money and stocks to say anyone can create something abstract and it'll behave similarly; (2) timing, such that it comes about in a gilded age where hard work has completely decoupled from wealth generation, and a substantial portion of the world thinks riches can simply appear.

This.  And gold and precious metals have long had intrinsic/practical value: aesthetics (gold, silver, platinum used for jewelry and shiny objects) and now practical value (plenty of uses in technology).  Now, those practical uses don't completely match up with the end-point value; there absolutely is a "speculative/store of value" component.  Hell, even beanie babies had some intrinsic value; both of my kids had some stuffed beanie babies that were treasured toys when they were little.  Again, the speculative/store of value for beanies ended up (for a time) vastly outpacing the intrinsic value, but there was SOMETHING there.

Crypto?  There's nothing.  It's literally electronic ones and zeroes.  That's it.  Sure, they're SECRET ones and zeroes, very hard to duplicate, steal, all of that.  But that's all it is.  Does it have value today?  Sure.  Because enough people/social groups have decided they do, they assign a value, and they trade them.  They could just as easily do the same with old stamps (finite supply), original prints of Looney Tunes cartoons, you name it.  All it takes to create a class of objects that are a "store of value" is enough people agreeing that said class should store value.  That works great.  Unless and until the collective belief falls apart.  Which, historically, it has for most all such classes of items.

Waving around the dollar, or the pound, or other national currencies and saying "how are these different?" is bullshit, because there is a very clear difference: the dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.  The pound is backed by the full faith and credit of the United Kingdom.  CAN those things fail?  Sure, see Zimbabwe and other currency collapses.  But there's a reason that the dollar is the world reserve currency, and the pound was back in the day: because of the size, wealth, power, and durability of the nation state backing the currencies.  Bottom line, if the dollar collapses because the United States collapses to a point where it can't back its currency, we and the world have much bigger problems than the value of the dollar.

But can you make money speculating on crypto today?  You bet.  Just like you could have made a fortune on tulip bulbs and beanie babies.  The catch is making sure not to be stuck holding the bag when the music stops.

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Posted
16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  And gold and precious metals have long had intrinsic/practical value: aesthetics (gold, silver, platinum used for jewelry and shiny objects) and now practical value (plenty of uses in technology).  Now, those practical uses don't completely match up with the end-point value; there absolutely is a "speculative/store of value" component.  Hell, even beanie babies had some intrinsic value; both of my kids had some stuffed beanie babies that were treasured toys when they were little.  Again, the speculative/store of value for beanies ended up (for a time) vastly outpacing the intrinsic value, but there was SOMETHING there.

Crypto?  There's nothing.  It's literally electronic ones and zeroes.  That's it.  Sure, they're SECRET ones and zeroes, very hard to duplicate, steal, all of that.  But that's all it is.  Does it have value today?  Sure.  Because enough people/social groups have decided they do, they assign a value, and they trade them.  They could just as easily do the same with old stamps (finite supply), original prints of Looney Tunes cartoons, you name it.  All it takes to create a class of objects that are a "store of value" is enough people agreeing that said class should store value.  That works great.  Unless and until the collective belief falls apart.  Which, historically, it has for most all such classes of items.

Waving around the dollar, or the pound, or other national currencies and saying "how are these different?" is bullshit, because there is a very clear difference: the dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.  The pound is backed by the full faith and credit of the United Kingdom.  CAN those things fail?  Sure, see Zimbabwe and other currency collapses.  But there's a reason that the dollar is the world reserve currency, and the pound was back in the day: because of the size, wealth, power, and durability of the nation state backing the currencies.  Bottom line, if the dollar collapses because the United States collapses to a point where it can't back its currency, we and the world have much bigger problems than the value of the dollar.

But can you make money speculating on crypto today?  You bet.  Just like you could have made a fortune on tulip bulbs and beanie babies.  The catch is making sure not to be stuck holding the bag when the music stops.

Some of the dumbest shit I’ve read about crypto is how it can be an alternative/replacement for the US Dollar.  As if Bitcoin would be worth fuck all if the dollar were to collapse.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Some of the dumbest shit I’ve read about crypto is how it can be an alternative/replacement for the US Dollar.  As if Bitcoin would be worth fuck all if the dollar were to collapse.

Yep.

If the dollar collapses, it's because the US collapses.  Not "runs into trouble," but actually collapses.  In which case the only currency worth shit will be canned goods and ammo.

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Posted
7 hours ago, Cyrus the Great said:

What are the practical uses of gold?

“Driving the speculative value” is an interesting phrase. It ain’t the underlying utility. It’s money printing. 
 

 

“Hirrrr durrrr what are the practical uses of gold derpy derppp” *inverts penis until it tickles the backside of asshole*

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