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Hey Oil Barons.......


936horn

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Rig count has stalled out again, dropping by 2 over the past 2 weeks. Curious whether it's a manpower/equipment issue or something else. Still tons of permitting action going on at the RRC.

One thing that might be a factor, I've spoken to multiple in-house guys whose companies are looking to get bought in the near future. One in particular told me about how they have enough good acreage to double or triple their current rig count but have absolutely zero inclination to do so while fielding offers.

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On 6/5/2022 at 1:56 PM, Horns99 said:

Definitely man power & supply issues out there that are effecting production.


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*affecting

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21 hours ago, Horns99 said:

Natty on the breakout today. Those Elec rates aren’t going down anytime soon.


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Yep, my mother sends me the closing price daily with money signs. Closed at 9.14/mcf last night. 

CHIEF

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I think part of the story here is the one, two punch of lack of skilled manpower and supply chain interruptions.  This is all anecdotal, but we are in the middle of working over five vertical wells in the Midland basin.  We lucked out getting a rig, but services are scarce and have longer lead times; hot oil/wireline being two that I have encountered in the last week.  Talking the pulling unit pusher, he said they have idle iron in their yard, but don't have enough competent operators and they are having trouble tooling out the rigs.  During the pandemic, when things broke, they scavenged from their idle rigs and are having a hell of a time getting replacements.  If this is indicative of what the other outfits are experiencing, I can see how it would have an impact on the ability to complete/repair wells and boost volumes.

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13 hours ago, BTW said:

I think part of the story here is the one, two punch of lack of skilled manpower and supply chain interruptions.  This is all anecdotal, but we are in the middle of working over five vertical wells in the Midland basin.  We lucked out getting a rig, but services are scarce and have longer lead times; hot oil/wireline being two that I have encountered in the last week.  Talking the pulling unit pusher, he said they have idle iron in their yard, but don't have enough competent operators and they are having trouble tooling out the rigs.  During the pandemic, when things broke, they scavenged from their idle rigs and are having a hell of a time getting replacements.  If this is indicative of what the other outfits are experiencing, I can see how it would have an impact on the ability to complete/repair wells and boost volumes.

Washington has intimated you can just flip a switch and boost volumes. And, since American greed is the culprit, we’re looking to the friendly Saudis and Venezuelans for help. 

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3 hours ago, Eastwood said:

Nat Gas taking a hit due to the Freeport LNG explosion. Initial impact on demand is supposedly 2 Bcf/d. No timeline on when it’ll be back or even how much damage was done.

It had to have been the Russians right?

Company is saying they'll be down 3 weeks.

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19 hours ago, 52-80 said:

we just had the leader of the country accuse its biggest oil producer of not paying its taxes.

unless we see the IRS with a successful prosecution, thats libelous/slanderous right? 

I yearn for the competency of Obama and Bush. You’ve got a clueless buffoon and a insurrection-prone narcissist. At least the current guy isn’t a threat to democracy and has exacerbated my monthly checks. 

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14 hours ago, Armybrat said:

My monthly checks have doubled, but think the country would be better off with lower prices.

Fuck the rest of the country and what they’d be better off with. I lived through ‘14-‘20. 

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On 6/12/2022 at 4:32 AM, Immaculate Vibes said:

This analysis is fucking hilarious in hindsight. Props to the federal government for such a spot on analysis and also to whichever Citigroup lackey put their report together. JFC. 
 

 

Market doesnt believe them.

Jan 2023 refined blendstock futures are trading above $3.  For reference today's contracts are $4

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2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Market doesnt believe them.

Jan 2023 refined blendstock futures are trading above $3.  For reference today's contracts are $4

That article was from the end of 2021, the halcyon days of transitory inflation

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6 minutes ago, Immaculate Vibes said:

Instead of getting converted to LNG and shipped to Europe, the gas stays here while the plant is down and increases our supply locally. 

Cheapest place to store it is in the ground.

CHIEF

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12 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

*BIDEN ALLY FLOATS 21% SURTAX ON OIL PROFITS TO BLUNT INFLATION

 

troy-point.gif

 

Combine that with the House Budget Chairman saying we don't have to balance the checkbook because we're the banker in Monopoly, and it's no wonder why we're proper fucked right now.   Not to mention that he says this shit at a Rotary Club meeting, with the 4 way test in the background.  Fucking Chef's Kiss.  

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Combine that with the House Budget Chairman saying we don't have to balance the checkbook because we're the banker in Monopoly, and it's no wonder why we're proper fucked right now.   Not to mention that he says this shit at a Rotary Club meeting, with the 4 way test in the background.  Fucking Chef's Kiss.  

 

 

Vg_TZOAV7BjDo42grmLpu3N8otLDtkPLg2o5-ngr

 

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3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

*BIDEN ALLY FLOATS 21% SURTAX ON OIL PROFITS TO BLUNT INFLATION

 

troy-point.gif

 

 

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Combine that with the House Budget Chairman saying we don't have to balance the checkbook because we're the banker in Monopoly, and it's no wonder why we're proper fucked right now.   Not to mention that he says this shit at a Rotary Club meeting, with the 4 way test in the background.  Fucking Chef's Kiss.  

 

 

Seems we elect a lot of morons.

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5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

*BIDEN ALLY FLOATS 21% SURTAX ON OIL PROFITS TO BLUNT INFLATION

 

troy-point.gif

 

Lulz. It’ll never happen and if it does, watch the boomerang effect. It’d just worsen prices. Biden is a totally out-of-depth assclown. 

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What country are we living in today?

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-biden-covid-health-f73c882b0664a5d5dd62635a9a65364c

Quote

President Joe Biden on Wednesday called on U.S. oil refiners to produce more gasoline and diesel, saying their profits have tripled during a time of war between Russia and Ukraine as Americans struggle with record high prices at the pump.

“The crunch that families are facing deserves immediate action,” Biden wrote in a letter to seven oil refiners. “Your companies need to work with my Administration to bring forward concrete, near-term solutions that address the crisis.”

 

Edited by Armybrat
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It’s not the producers, it is refining capacity. Refiners need assurance from the government that there will be a demand for their product long term. Offer government incentives that will allow for increasing capacity. If not, these gas prices are here to stay. Do whatever it takes to get refineries that have gone off line back up and running, and whatever it takes to modernize existing refineries. It is now a matter of national security. 
CHIEF

 

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But it seems government policy has been to discourage banks from loaning money to make improvements in the refining industry, correct?

And is it feasible to get goverment permits to even build new refineries these days?

Edited by Armybrat
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24 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

But it seems government policy has been to discourage banks from loaning money to make improvements in the refining industry, correct?

And is it feasible to get goverment permits to even build new refineries these days?

Correct on the government discouraging loans. The EPA is to blame for having no new refineries since the 70’s. If we could just get all our refineries up and running, modernize and increase the capacity of our existing ones, and keep from selling and dismantling existing refineries, these prices would probably go away. 

The concept of going full electric is not a 5-10 year plan. GM and any car manufacturer that says they will no longer produce IC vehicles or hybrids after 2035 is signing their death certificate. The concept, at best, is a 50 year plan, but more like a 75 year plan. The dumbasses that think it could be done in 5-10 years have never set foot in places like Guthrie, TX. or Vaughn, NM. Building $2mm recharging stations in towns that see maybe 20-25 fill-ups per day is ludicrous. There are vast swaths of the nation that are rural and desolate.


CHIEF

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