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Posted

Posting this here too. Directly relevant to rankings and where teams should be relative to rankings. 
 

Really like this graph: wins above expectation based on post-game probability.  Probably as close as can be to “are you as good as your record.” Ideally you want to be dead-center and undefeated. That means you are winning because you’re consistently playing winning football. The further away you get, you begin seeing the impact of bad/good luck and opponents blowing games, and maybe coaching idiocy. 
 

A few interesting things: voters are right to be cautious of GT and UVa, but add BYU in there too. Not to say luck can never last (it does) but they’ve already had a lot.

Likewise, the belief that Tenn is better than their record is somewhat justified.  Mizzou and Miami too, for that matter. 

UT and A&M are slightly above expectation but not tremendously so. Most years, some good bounces separate great from good from average seasons.

Scary for everyone: OSU’s great record appears entirely earned and justified. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.9d0f5773b4ad4e7987430c5b672e83e0.jpeg

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
27 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

The same tiebreaker has to be applied to all three first

Wouldn't the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) go:

1-0

0-0

0-1 

and narrow the field to just Texas vs. Ole Miss?

Posted (edited)

This sets up about as perfectly as you could have hoped for going into RRS week in October. Nobody in top 15 has as many opportunities to put skins on the wall. 

Edited by ITHorn
Posted
Just now, LonghornSean said:

We’re still technically out because no ACC on top 10.

We are neither in or out of anything. I like where we are, lots of season left. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
1 minute ago, UTEX_ME said:

Are we in ? Virginia highest ACC team so they take a spot then a G6 team

This is the key. If there isn’t an ACC and G5 team in the top ten: then ten and eleven are out. 

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

We are gonna have to win out. 9-3 isn’t gonna cut it 

If we are 9-3, we will have 3 wins vs Top 10 teams.

Or 4, if the 3rd loss is to Arky. 😬

Edited by TrashMaster G
Posted (edited)

This fucking morons talking about aggy should be higher. These fucking morons  don’t know shit 

 

aggy has the softest worst schedule 

Edited by Sgt Hulk
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We are neither in or out of anything. I like where we are, lots of season left. 

I love where we are. These should light something in not only the players but Sark!! 
 

once they post the bracket and we’re not in there, . . . That should spark something 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Wouldn't the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) go:

1-0

0-0

0-1 

and narrow the field to just Texas vs. Ole Miss?

No, head to head isn’t applied in the three-way tie because all three didn’t play each other. (Essentially would be punishing A&M for losing to Texas, but Ole Miss/Texas didn’t have to play each other).

Edited by LonghornSean
Posted
5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Wouldn't the first tiebreaker (head-to-head) go:

1-0

0-0

0-1 

and narrow the field to just Texas vs. Ole Miss?

It was like this. Now it's got round robin language for that specific tiebreaker which is fucking dumb. 

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