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Cruz vs Beto


Washpark

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If he can break even with whites with college degrees and maybe pick off 5% of the Latino vote Cruz is getting, and hope independents end up turning against the incumbent as they tend to do...

You also hope a LV screen would show independents and Democrats up and Republicans down

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1 minute ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Latino is what shocked me about that chart.  Does the name Cruz carry that much weight?  Why are they supporting him so much?

I imagine its a lot of long-time Latinos who are Latino but say they're Texan so they basically vote like white people. 

Also, I wonder how many of the 36% who don't know about Beto are in the Valley, where he struggled.  He needs to get down there and talk to them.  He's from god damn El Paso, he speaks their language.  Ted just has orange dick in his mouth.

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8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Latino is what shocked me about that chart.  Does the name Cruz carry that much weight?  Why are they supporting him so much?

They tend not to be an unreliable voting block and there are many Latino's who are very conservative and religious..... just Catholic.  

Edited by Patrick Bateman
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5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Find it disgusting all you want.

I just don't mistake hope and optimism for likelihood.

I like Beto.  Hearing his voice and approach gives me hope.  But I still think he's going to lose.  And I think his approach is going to lose in most places where it's tried.  That doesn't make me like him any less, or want to hold him up as an example of the way we SHOULD be doing things any less.  But I've been watching our performance as a people lately -- damned right I don't have much faith in us making the right choice.

I hate this post because I tend to agree with it.  That said, we were both wrong about Alabama, so maybe there is hope.

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39 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Latino is what shocked me about that chart.  Does the name Cruz carry that much weight?  Why are they supporting him so much?

That poll is for registered voters.  I wonder what the ratio of registered to unregistered is for the minorities?   Or think they are registered, but aren't.  I think if they move to another precinct without re-registering then they fall off the rolls?  

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32 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I hate this post because I tend to agree with it.  That said, we were both wrong about Alabama, so maybe there is hope.

It's like wearing your cap inside-out at a baseball game. Brisket has to rock back and forth saying the thing he fears, so that magickally the thing he wanted to happen, will happen.

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7 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I think the poster that mentioned earlier how the people who get really fired up about the kneeling were already going to be turning out for Cruz because ® is correct. On that flip side, it will help him make a connection with the sizable black communities in Houston and Dallas and will really help with name recognition and exposure with younger voters see this go viral online.

I just don't think it is going to motivate a whole lot of Cruz voters that weren't already gonna be there, but provides an opportunity to make big gains. Helps more than hurts overall.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 

Black twitter has already been ablaze with it all day. Even from your random tweeters who post funny memes all day and rarely engage in politics. 

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It's like wearing your cap inside-out at a baseball game. Brisket has to rock back and forth saying the thing he fears, so that magickally the thing he wanted to happen, will happen.

I confess to being a tad on the superstitious side. I’m a baseball fan, so it comes with the territory. But I’m also that way about fishing and such.

And yeah....that’s the thing I love about pessimism. If you’re wrong, you still win!
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Man, since I first commented without knowing much of either candidate I’ve done a deeper dive and watched a bunch of beto videos and read about him and I have to admit, I’d be more than okay if he won and even if he was President, despite fundamentally disagreeing with a few issues (abortion being the big one). This is the kind of candidate I hope the Dem machine supports and can get behind a la Obama and Clinton before him.

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I’m glad Alabama has Doug Jones but he’s still a boring old white guy.

Y’all have the chance to put a cool ass dude in the senate. Just a bonus that he’s smart and decent.

Plus, he’s FOINE. If you get the “O” in “fine” from me that means extra hot.

I’d put him on my hall pass. But alas my love for tall, lanky dudes with a mop of dark hair. Beto ain’t a Brit but he can still get it.

Y’all vote for him so he can get started on that presidential campaign and stay on my TV and social media timelines.

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1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

This election is a pass/fail IQ test for the electorate of this state. That simple.

Also, in terms of swaying the poll, polls tend to lean more Republican as you progress from all adults, to registered voters, and again from registered to likely voters. Obviously every contest has different dynamics but I doubt it would be significantly more pro Beto if it was likely voters. That poll also under-sampled Republicans as a proportion of the electorate, but that's less concerning given that it is really doubtful Cruz hits 45 percent of independents or 40 percent of Latino voters. Overall a four percent gap with a 3.8 percent MOE before recent events definitely solidifies that the goal posts have been moved. The last few polls are 2, 5, 6 and 4. Cruz isn't going to pick up a whole lot of undecideds. If he continues to get his name out there and the GOTV ground game is on point, he can seriously win. I still don't think he will, but just the fact that we are here saying that in August is crazy so who knows.

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5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This election is a pass/fail IQ test for the electorate of this state. That simple.

Also, in terms of swaying the poll, polls tend to lean more Republican as you progress from all adults, to registered voters, and again from registered to likely voters. Obviously every contest has different dynamics but I doubt it would be significantly more pro Beto if it was likely voters. That poll also under-sampled Republicans as a proportion of the electorate, but that's less concerning given that it is really doubtful Cruz hits 45 percent of independents or 40 percent of Latino voters. Overall a four percent gap with a 3.8 percent MOE before recent events definitely solidifies that the goal posts have been moved. The last few polls are 2, 5, 6 and 4. Cruz isn't going to pick up a whole lot of undecideds. If he continues to get his name out there and the GOTV ground game is on point, he can seriously win. I still don't think he will, but just the fact that we are here saying that in August is crazy so who knows.

They did not undersample them in terms of overall margin of self-identified Republicans to Dems and indies. Texas has a lot of Republican-leaning independents who self identify as such. Tribune was R+3 and Lyceum being even - those are Texas based polls  

 

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I imagine its a lot of long-time Latinos who are Latino but say they're Texan so they basically vote like white people. 

Also, I wonder how many of the 36% who don't know about Beto are in the Valley, where he struggled.  He needs to get down there and talk to them.  He's from god damn El Paso, he speaks their language.  Ted just has orange dick in his mouth.

Your imagination is running away with you.

 

3 hours ago, Tony Soprano said:

Because they are against things like killing unborn babies and illegal immigration. You know, things that people with morals support.


imgur

I one wrote an email to ted Cruz to tell him to fuck off about something. Now I get this shit from him:

Friend,

In order to win in November, conservatives HAVE TO TURN OUT.

We need grassroots supporters such as yourself to step up.

Will you donate $3, or more, right now to make sure we have the resources to fight?

For Liberty,
ted-cruz-signature.jpg

Ted Cruz

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if that is his only "moment" then i agree with you. But if he keeps having "moments" like that, he going to win. You see it. Trust yourself. Right now, Beto is capturing the imagination of the entire nation. He is HOPE personified. He can win. And you know it.

He hasn’t made a mistake yet. That’s what’s incredible. Had a convo with a staffer about our event and her answer was incredible - logistics related but on point on how to treat people. They are running an amazing campaign rn.
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