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Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Dont play in a Mickey Mouse conference and we will take you seriously. Texas played 5 top 10 teams this year. How many did BYU play? The answer is one. And they got fucking dogwalked. 

You prove my point.

Posted
4 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

They wont drop ND to put in a 6th SEC team. To get Texas in, we need OU or Bama to lose so we can take their spot. If they both lose, we will be automatically in. Sankey would lose his mind if only 3 SEC teams were gonna get in. 

it's still a great time to attack domer

/long game

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Posted
Just now, Sir Ulrich said:

I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But the committee disagrees with you and that's all that matters. Otherwise we'd be ranked at 13 or higher this week. 

Disagree. Committee cannot credit us for a win we dont yet have and a schedule we have not yet played. Committee put Texas in a spot a team would be if they hadnt played the #3 team in the country. That is a BIG data point to beat them and it boosts your resume a ton to beat an undefeated CFP team. It boosts your SOS and puts you at 2 CFP wins, the most in the country. HUGE for us and now they can move us up appropriately. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

You prove my point.

BYU is the easy target because they are actually not good.  It's like SMU last year.

ND, Miami, A&M, and Utah actually look like good teams when they play.

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Posted

Flip the order of losses to #1 and #3. 

Win against #3 early season and lose to #1 late in season. How does it change things? 

I think that they need to honestly think about it this way. The crushing of a #3 team after opening the season with a tight #1 team loss. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, JBJ said:

BYU is the easy target because they are actually not good.  It's like SMU last year.

ND, Miami, A&M, and Utah actually look like good teams when they play.

Texas hasn’t looked good for much of  the year either - even in wins.

Choose your words wisely.

Posted
5 minutes ago, JBJ said:

BYU is the easy target because they are actually not good.  It's like SMU last year.

ND, Miami, A&M, and Utah actually look like good teams when they play.

Miami has looked like shit plenty. Utah? Really?

Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

They did just enough yesterday to make a strong statement that they belong. 


Anyone with a fucking brain knows what would happen if we played BYU right now. If the point is to get the best teams in the playoffs we should be in. 

If we do not get in we absolutely should pay whatever the penalty is and cancel the Ohio St game next year and schedule an FBS school. Fuck the TV executives if the only goal is wins and losses. 

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Posted

the super conferences have fucked this all up with unbalanced and gamed schedules.  you can't have more than 2 losses and if you are not maximizing the way to get to that you are doing it wrong.  SOS and I suppose SOR should matter more than it does to the committee but they have shown that like H2H they are tie breakers.

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Posted

I mentioned Texas in my last post, but again, I’m not arguing against Texas, It’s the biases that I don’t like - with ND being the biggest of them all.

Somebody above moved the needle to games against top10 teams - don’t just pick on BYU, show the numbers for everyone.

Texas Tech fails on that scale. As does tOSU etc etc

Posted

The networks will be very interested in (and invested in) the OOC scheduling references/suggestions.

2024 Week 2, Texas/Michigan: 9.19M

2025 Week 1 TV ratings/viewers:

  1. Texas-Ohio State (FOX): 16.623M
  2. Notre Dame-Miami (ABC, Sunday): 10.800M
  3. Alabama-Florida State (ABC): 10.700M
  4. LSU-Clemson (ABC): 10.400M
  5. TCU-North Carolina (ESPN, Monday): 6.184M
  6. South Carolina-Virginia Tech (ESPN, Sunday): 5.400M
  7. Georgia Tech-Colorado (ESPN, Friday): 3.700M
  8. Nebraska-Cincinnati (ESPN, Thursday): 3.300M
  9. South Dakota-Iowa State (FOX): 3.044M
  10. Auburn-Baylor (FOX, Friday): 2.832M
  11. Syracuse-Tennessee (ABC): 2.600M

Some other random OOC games

Michigan - OU: 9.7M
UND-aTm: 6.2M
Wisconsin-Bama: 4.5M
ISU-Iowa: 4.28M
SJSU - Texas: 3.7M

If Texas had scheduled Purdue or Michigan State instead of tOSU in week 1, Texas now sits at 10-2 and that game likely sees around 10M fewer viewers.  The networks would not appreciate it...

 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

Texas hasn’t looked good for much of  the year either - even in wins.

Choose your words wisely.

your strength of schedule is 70.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Disagree. Committee cannot credit us for a win we dont yet have and a schedule we have not yet played. . 

Then why did Michigan jump us? The committee is saying their win would be better than our win. Same reason we were #10 going into Georgia. They wanted us at 16 for a reason going and are saying that we'll need more than just a win to get there. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Then why did Michigan jump us? The committee is saying their win would be better than our win. Same reason we were #10 going into Georgia. They wanted us at 16 for a reason going and are saying that we'll need more than just a win to get there. 

I don't think so.  Last year's committee seemed to look forward and rank based on teams winning out.  This year they've jockied teams each week based on weekly outcomes.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Then why did Michigan jump us? The committee is saying their win would be better than our win. Same reason we were #10 going into Georgia. They wanted us at 16 for a reason going and are saying that we'll need more than just a win to get there. 

Michigan jumped us because they committee didnt want a problem where they beat OSU and we beat Aggy and they have to justify jumping Michigan over us after they were behind us. So we just need OSU to win that.

 

And we do need more than just a win. We still arent getting in unless either OU or Bama lose. Or ND LOL

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Then why did Michigan jump us? The committee is saying their win would be better than our win. Same reason we were #10 going into Georgia. They wanted us at 16 for a reason going and are saying that we'll need more than just a win to get there. 

They jumped us to create a buffer to leave us out with 3 losses. It’s pretty easy to see that 

CJ Vogel 

Posted 12 minutes ago

For those watching ball today with hopes of a Texas CFP berth. Any of the following would greatly help.

11:00 am

Ohio State to beat #15 Michigan

Pitt to beat #12 Miami

Noon

UCF to beat #11 BYU

2:30 pm

LSU to beat #8 Oklahoma

Tennessee to beat #14 Vanderbilt

6:30 pm

Auburn to beat #10 Alabama

9:30 pm

Stanford to beat #9 Notre Dame

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Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

They jumped us to create a buffer to leave us out with 3 losses. It’s pretty easy to see that 

Yep not sure why its hard for some to see. And we'll be the sacrificial lamb for the playoff expanding to 16. 

Posted
Just now, Sir Ulrich said:

Yep not sure why its hard for some to see. And we'll be the sacrificial lamb for the playoff expanding to 16. 

Agreed. I think Sankey is banking on it. Gives him the ammo to talk about unbalanced scheduling between conferences. We go to 16, all of this is moot. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Yep not sure why its hard for some to see. And we'll be the sacrificial lamb for the playoff expanding to 16. 

What starts here….

(oh my god, we will be the biggest villain yet again if the CFP changes format solely because we got left out lol - I’d love this) 

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  • Like 1
Posted

I know it has been a disappointing season, but I do think this team is playing much better recently.

I would really like to see what we could do with a couple weeks to prep for a playoff game.  Offense has figured out what they are good at and more importantly, not good at, so let Sark lean in.  We have fatal flaws at OL and RB that can only be fixed by new players, but this lineup can still gel more.  On defense get Hill and Taaffe healthy, let any CB not named Guilbeau get a couple weeks of starter reps opposite Manny.

 

I think our ceiling is higher than all of these scrub teams being discussed.  Tech would have gone 8-4 with our schedule.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Agreed. I think Sankey is banking on it. Gives him the ammo to talk about unbalanced scheduling between conferences. We go to 16, all of this is moot. 

Sankey wants 5 in the playoffs. That's why we need one of Bama or OU to lose. He will have a cow if SEC only gets 4. Or if both Bama and OU lose, SEC would be poised for only 3. Texas is very likely to make it if one of them fall. I would say we are a safe lock if they both do. 

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Posted (edited)

OU and Vanderbilt overachieving after we beat them is the biggest issue here. Neither is better than us. Aggie, Miami, BYU, Michigan, Tulane, Texas Tech and Virginia. None of those teams are better than us either. But win/loss record rules all unless the committee decides to rock the boat this year to get us in. 2 out of OU, Bama, and Vandy losing today would definitely help. 

Edited by SarkAfterDark
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Yep not sure why its hard for some to see. And we'll be the sacrificial lamb for the playoff expanding to 16. 

And for the TV networks to lose big market OOC games.
 

let’s see which wins out. 

28 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

Texas hasn’t looked good for much of  the year either - even in wins.

Choose your words wisely.

Wins matter. Losses matter. How they looked doesn’t. That’s petty fucking clear. 

18 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Here’s another thing: Don’t assume the committee is going to put (5) SEC teams in the field

What?  Unless OU or Bama loses today they have 5 in already.  Georgia, Aggie, Ole Miss are in no question. 
 

the question is if they can get in 6. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Miami is in if they win. We'd have needed to be higher than 16 to make that big of a jump. 

In the past this was true. I’m not sure now. If the committee wants us in we are in

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Posted
22 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Here’s another thing: Don’t assume the committee is going to put (5) SEC teams in the field

Georgia

aggy

ole miss

two of Bama/OU/Vandy/Texas

Not sure why you think 5 aren’t getting in barring mega chaos 

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Posted

I just imagined Sark's statements about making it into the playoff post game on the field and during the presser with the Omaha productions stinger at the end. Lol. And, also, hell yeah.

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Posted
1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

so whats the combo of teams we need to win today?

assuming Ohio St over Mich, Pitt over Miami, UCF over BYU, Auburn over Bama, Tenn over Vandy...need a few of those to hit? 

Michigan losing and either OU/Bama losing would probably get us in…not easily. 
 

but Miami and ND and BYU losing would be good too 

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Posted
34 minutes ago, immamac said:

They did just enough yesterday to make a strong statement that they belong. 

I personally think Texas belongs, but I think Aggy very clearly not being as strong as their ranking indicated is also going to hurt the discussion internally. I haven't bought them all season, similar to ND, and I would be willing to bet some of the committee members agree.

Texas being very inconsistent over the season despite some of the impressive performances they have turned in hurts as well. I'm not saying I think that should be a factor, but I think the committee will take that into account and maybe even say something about it publicly. That's just a gut feeling.

It's funny, because I had a long conversation with this with my best friend a couple days ago and I was firmly in the "Texas beats Aggy and they're 100% in" camp, but I woke up this morning with a lot of the same doubts I saw many people (including yourself) posting on this board over the last week.

Ultimately, I just don't think the committee will give you enough leeway. I think they probably should, but I don't think they will. 

And yeah, that's a strong case against scheduling marquee OOC matchups and that kinda sucks.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They jumped us to create a buffer to leave us out with 3 losses. It’s pretty easy to see that 

CJ Vogel 

Posted 12 minutes ago

For those watching ball today with hopes of a Texas CFP berth. Any of the following would greatly help.

11:00 am

Ohio State to beat #15 Michigan

Pitt to beat #12 Miami

Noon

UCF to beat #11 BYU

2:30 pm

LSU to beat #8 Oklahoma

Tennessee to beat #14 Vanderbilt

6:30 pm

Auburn to beat #10 Alabama

9:30 pm

Stanford to beat #9 Notre Dame

 

 

OCC match ups, SEC won't get 6 (deserves 7), conf championship games are a wildcard (don't want to disincentivize them (yet), so Texas is in a bit of a pinch.  so even with the argument for OCC match ups, Texas loses on the following two motivations, so mayhem is required.  there is the "list of games" to watch, but what is most likely, therefore the real games to watch...
 

11:00 am

Ohio State to beat #15 Michigan

Pitt to beat #12 Miami

Noon

UCF to beat #11 BYU

2:30 pm

replace with Tech beats BYU in the Big 12 title game

LSU to beat #8 Oklahoma 

Not happening

Tennessee to beat #14 Vanderbilt

6:30 pm

Auburn to beat #10 Alabama

9:30 pm

Stanford to beat #9 Notre Dame

not happening

 

Mandatory losers needed: Michigan, Vandy, Miami, Bama, and BYU (this week or next).  We are dead in the water without those five.   We will jump Utah. We are at 12 with realistic outcomes today (jump Utah), Vandy and Michigan lose.  

So taking the odds of what should happen, it's Miami, BYU and Alabama that shouldn't lose but we need them to.

 

Edited by scramblyn
Posted
8 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

And yeah, that's a strong case against scheduling marquee OOC matchups and that kinda sucks.

Gonna be so mad about this bc there’s no point in tuning in the first 3 weeks for a bunch of 63-10 games when everyone stops scheduling good OOC games 

Posted
11 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

so whats the combo of teams we need to win today?

assuming Ohio St over Mich, Pitt over Miami, UCF over BYU, Auburn over Bama, Tenn over Vandy...need a few of those to hit? 

Also need LSU over OU. We need 2 out of 3 of Michigan losing, Bama losing, and OU losing to go our way or we are toast. The other games are less important but the more chaos the better.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

16 And no byes

Eliminate CCGs and let the conference declare their winner via tiebreakers, but in reality, who cares if there’s no byes 

Expanding the current format won't be the way forward.  We are moving toward a P2 invitational where B1G/SEC get multiple guaranteed spots and everyone else is at large.

Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Also need LSU over OU. We need 2 out of 3 of Michigan losing, Bama losing, and OU losing to go our way or we are toast. The other games are less important but the more chaos the better.  

there is an argument that the SEC is an auto-five bid league. if that is the case Michigan, OU or Bama and we are in. but that's a very transparent rise from 16 to 10 with the ole swap-a-roo regardless of Vandy, Miami, BYU, etc. but it has logic behind it.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Georgia

aggy

ole miss

two of Bama/OU/Vandy/Texas

Not sure why you think 5 aren’t getting in barring mega chaos 

That’s just it.  If OU or Bama lose, it doesn’t automatically mean Texas takes their place.  It might mean less SEC teams in the field

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

That’s just it.  If OU or Bama lose, it doesn’t automatically mean Texas takes their place.  It might mean less SEC teams in the field

Sankey, the Mannings, Texas boosters with influence, and ESPN who wants ratings, wont stand for that. They let that abortion of a game take place last year when they shoehorned SMU into the playoffs and they got fucking dogwalked by an overrated PSU team. That wont happen again. The experiment failed. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
Posted
39 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I don't think so.  Last year's committee seemed to look forward and rank based on teams winning out.  This year they've jockied teams each week based on weekly outcomes.

Agreed. They had a loss to aggy “baked into” the rankings and then we beat their ass.

Now they have a problem.

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Posted
54 minutes ago, BluTechsan said:

I mentioned Texas in my last post, but again, I’m not arguing against Texas, It’s the biases that I don’t like - with ND being the biggest of them all.

Somebody above moved the needle to games against top10 teams - don’t just pick on BYU, show the numbers for everyone.

Texas Tech fails on that scale. As does tOSU etc etc

True

IMG_4103.jpeg

Posted
6 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

That’s just it.  If OU or Bama lose, it doesn’t automatically mean Texas takes their place.  It might mean less SEC teams in the field

fewer

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Posted
2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

Jesus Christ, let me slow it down for some of y'all.

Any team in the SEC can lose two conference games and get in.  It doesn't matter which two conference games.  That's exactly what we did.

You realize Vanderbilt is a SEC team with two conference losses and literally nobody thinks they should be in the playoffs. Certainly their conference schedule is worse than ours but we should be aware that there are situations where a good OOC win would be a difference maker.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You realize Vanderbilt is a SEC team with two conference losses and literally nobody thinks they should be in the playoffs. Certainly their conference schedule is worse than ours but we should be aware that there are situations where a good OOC win would be a difference maker.

They played a crappy OOC schedule and lost to us 

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