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Posted
20 minutes ago, B00M said:

In general, I agree, barring major injury. The Mizzou team that Vandy and OU beat was on its 2nd or 3rd string QB, right? 

Missouri's starting QB was hurt in the 3rd Quarter against Vandy and played against OU. 

Posted

As a Texas fan, I am obviously biased and think we should get in. But here is my best attempt at an un-biased take: 

All teams have a ceiling and a floor. Winning a National Championship requires an extremely high ceiling, so the Committee's main focus SHOULD be finding the 12 teams with the highest ceilings and putting those 12 teams into the playoff. Keeping teams out because of a bad loss, in my opinion, focuses too much on the floor rather than the ceiling. Here's what I mean by that. Let's say you rank every team's floor and ceiling on a scale of 1-10 (1 means you suck, 10 means you're the best). This year, you could argue that our floor is probably a 3 because of our loss to Florida as well as our struggles with MSU and UK. However, you can also argue that our ceiling is probably an 8 because of our 3 wins against OU, Vandy, and A&M as well as our close loss to OSU. Now compare that to one of the other bubble teams like Vandy: You could argue their floor is higher than ours because they only have 2 losses (both of which were to good teams), so let's just say their floor is a 5. HOWEVER: there is no justification to argue that their ceiling is much higher than their floor. They haven't beaten any good teams, and they also struggled with some bad ones. So let's say their ceiling is a 6. If you compare Texas (with a floor-ceiling span of 3-8) to a team like Vandy (span of 5-6), there's no reasonable argument to be made that Vandy is more likely to WIN a National Championship than Texas. Is Texas more likely to drop a game to a bad team? Sure, technically they are. But, A) there won't be any bad teams in the playoffs, and B) Texas has already shown they can beat other playoff teams. Oh, and C) Texas fucking beat Vandy. 

In summary: Focusing on something with a small floor-ceiling span might be a safe way to invest your money, but it's a stupid way to pick teams for a playoff. 

If the committee ranks Vandy ahead of us tonight, I will riot. 

Posted

At the end of the day, money matters most.  The committee will pick what is best for TV ratings and media coverage, whether that's a feel-good story or rage bait. Texas is in. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

At the end of the day, money matters most.  The committee will pick what is best for TV ratings and media coverage, whether that's a feel-good story or rage bait. Texas is in. 

not so sure.  they chose SMU over Bama last year.  This year it is us or ND.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Mizzou has sucked all year, no idea why they were ever ranked. They should have lost at home to Kansas.

And yet there they are at the back end of the AP Poll. They have ZERO wins over a team with a winning record this year. ZERO!

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Posted
15 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

That's not the rule. Nobody is making that game or making that ex-post claim.

Is Ole Miss the de facto 2015 champion because they beat what would later, at the end of the season, turn out to be the #1 team in Alabama?

The rankings are as-best-determined at at time of record. They are not retroactively updated at the end - almost nothing in life works this way.

Your method is stupid and indefensible. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Texas is being penalized for losing 3 games, who they were to does not matter. Don’t lose 3 games

 

Agreed, switch out Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame with Rice for the next 4 years. Better chance to not lose 3 games. 

 

IMG_3864.gif.87ebef461775d21c1b8f9acf5495d6fb.gif

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Posted

SMU was also 8 going into the ACC championship game at 11-1, with Indiana and Boise between them and Bama. This year, Bama will be going into champ week on the bubble. It COULD be treated differently (Probably won’t be). 

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Posted
20 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

bama can get fucked but they beat UGA at UGA.  It's probably the best win of the year.  

It is the best win of the year, even better then our win over Aggy. But their loss at home to OU is very ugly because of how badly they played in that loss. Same with their loss to FSU. A loss to UGA that is convincing might make the committee think their win was a fluke and that they have been trending the wrong way, which they have. I dont think they are a lock yet.  

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Posted
5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

not so sure.  they chose SMU over Bama last year.  This year it is us or ND.

And SMU last year had 2 P4 opponents in OOC: BYU who finished 10-2 and TCU who finished 8-4.  Bama had 5-7 Wisconsin as their "signature" OOC win. 

Posted
14 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

bama can get fucked but they beat UGA at UGA.  It's probably the best win of the year.  

But how would they treat a beatdown by UGA on Saturday vs the the 3 point Bama win from two months ago?  I mean someone looking at their body of work can suggest they kind of slid downward as the season progressed losing to OU and then squeezing out victories from bottom dwellers like Auburn and South Carolina.  We are being told yea  remember those close OT games against MSU and UK?  Their body of work SHOULD be held to the same standard, but it's not and if UGA does truck them it won't      

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Posted
Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

They get their 3rd by playing for a conference championship, we got our 3rd losing to Florida

We got our third losing to UGA on the road. They got their third losing to UGA at a neutral site. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Committee has stated they will not penalize for playing in a CCG.

They said that last year though. 

They need to say it again today after the rankings for it to still be true. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

We got our third losing to UGA on the road. They got their third losing to UGA at a neutral site. 

So you are emphasizing that CCG don't matter? Aren't you about the purity of the sport? Or am I mistaken?

Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They get their 3rd by playing for a conference championship, we got our 3rd losing to Florida

Our 3rd loss came to UGa. Bama 3rd loss came to UGA.

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Posted
50 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I'd argue that a team's postseason ranking is a more accurate metric. Game day ranking on the day it was played just reinforces what a fool's errand preseason rankings have always been. The SEC teams always seem to be overrated, USCe being the most egregious. Oh, and Penn St #2?

We used to complain about it when we were in the Big 12.

Posted
2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So if Texas scheduled Pud State instead of Ohio St, would the Horns be comfortably in at 10-2 and above OU, ND, Vandy? 2 of those 3 teams they beat with same records?

If you are going to fantasize, why not dream about the scenario where we beat Georgia in the last few years?

 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So you are emphasizing that CCG don't matter? Aren't you about the purity of the sport? Or am I mistaken?

Where does is say CCG games don’t count? Same place is says OOC games made for TV ratings? Or is it writing men in CFP rules somewhere?

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Your method is stupid and indefensible. 

Me, ESPN, NCAA and their official record keeper Stats Perform/LLC/INC, versus: guy on internet.

Posted
1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So you are emphasizing that CCG don't matter? Aren't you about the purity of the sport? Or am I mistaken?

Are you emphasizing that how you look at the end of the season is irrelevant to who should be selected for the playoffs? I dont want a team limping into the playoffs if an equal alternative is available that is on the upswing. Our loss to OSU should carry similar weight to a CCG loss. Both optional sorts of games against top ranked opponents. 

Posted

There are 3 women on this committee. They were looking at their phones during the games. You guys are over complicating this. Oh, 3 losses, they're out.

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Posted
1 minute ago, DaysOff said:

There are 3 women on this committee. They were looking at their phones during the games. You guys are over complicating this. Oh, 3 losses, they're out.

No there's not.

There's 1 - the Virginia AD 

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Posted
4 hours ago, petscii said:

Texas is not being penalized for losing to Ohio State or Georgia. They are being penalized for losing the fucking Florida game.

The team that beat Texas and kept Texas out of the CFP is Texas.

 

2 hours ago, Newy25 said:


This is the laziest argument and the easiest to counter. If Texas schedules Abilene Christian in week one instead of Ohio St, we are in the playoffs. It’s that simple. People are sorting the Win/Loss column and ranking teams accordingly. 9-3 is why we are not in the playoffs and who we lost to does not matter. 

Newy is dead on here and people need to stop repeating moronic talking points like the one petscii makes above. If Texas played Texas State at home instead of the #1 team in the country on the road, we would be ranked #8 and guaranteed in the CFP.  Texas isn't getting punished for losing to Florida. We're being punished for scheduling a meaningful, challenging OOC game.  The Committee spouted a bunch of bullshit in the offseason about weighing strength of schedule and is now almost entirely going off of W-L record to seed teams.  They probably just killed almost all good OOC matchups for the foreseeable future.

 

More than anything, this sucks for the sport. Secondarily, it sucks for UT this year who are absolutely one of the 12 best teams in the country and would be a no doubt CFP team if we only had the Florida and UGA losses. 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They get their 3rd by playing for a conference championship, we got our 3rd losing to Florida

Or, using your idiotic sequencing…. Bama 3rd loss to FSU and Texas 3rd loss to Florida. Which loss is worse? Maybe we could get Florida and FSU to play.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, The Drum said:

Or, using your idiotic sequencing…. Bama 3rd loss to FSU and Texas 3rd loss to Florida. Which loss is worse? Maybe we could get Florida and FSU to play.

Doesn't matter, playing for in the CCG is a + data point for them which would put them in over us if a 3 loss team were to make it. 

 

Unrelated to the 3 loss stuff this is an interesting principle on their website:

"Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Posted
22 minutes ago, TexasPride10 said:

As a Texas fan, I am obviously biased and think we should get in. But here is my best attempt at an un-biased take: 

...

If the committee ranks Vandy ahead of us tonight, I will riot. 

I'd say Texas is superior to Vandy, ND, Miami, and whatever high school team gets in by way of conference championship (Virginia, Tulane), and at the same time none of this group is worthy of being in anyway.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Doesn't matter, playing for in the CCG is a + data point for them which would put them in over us if a 3 loss team were to make it. 

 

Unrelated to the 3 loss stuff this is an interesting principle on their website:

"Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

How many data points does Texas have? How many data points does Alabama have? I can’t seem to find the list.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

There are 3 women on this committee. They were looking at their phones during the games. You guys are over complicating this. Oh, 3 losses, they're out.

Send in the big guns

image.thumb.png.8daa0892ad05c14b079da08fe98764d4.png

Posted

The strongest argument against Texas - other than just "hurr durr three losses" - is our performance on the road this season. We'd almost definitely play a playoff game on the road, so the committee would ask - can this team win a game against a playoff team on the road? 

We played five true road games this season, going 2-3, and losing to a team who fired their coach. We were blown out by Georgia and our "best result" was a 7 point loss to Ohio State. Not a good data point when your best result is a loss. And even the wins were suspect - we needed OT to beat another team who fired their coach and a big comeback and OT to beat a below average Mississippi State.

Now let's look at some of the other teams:

Oklahoma - wins at Tennessee and Alabama.

Alabama - won at Georgia (this easily cancels out the FSU loss even though that loss is worse than ours at Florida)

Notre Dame - blowout wins at Pitt and Arkansas. Yes, I know pig sucked but they did what you are supposed to do and destroyed them.

Miami - blowout at Pitt and VT (again, they suck, but that's what you are supposed to do)

While this isn't the only data point, it's a pretty strong one that doesn't work in our favor. 

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Posted
14 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

There are 3 women on this committee. They were looking at their phones during the games. You guys are over complicating this. Oh, 3 losses, they're out.

 

Just now, DaysOff said:

Still looking at her phone.

 

Classic play, just be completely wrong, get called out, double down. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

The strongest argument against Texas - other than just "hurr durr three losses" - is our performance on the road this season. We'd almost definitely play a playoff game on the road, so the committee would ask - can this team win a game against a playoff team on the road? 

We played five true road games this season, going 2-3, and losing to a team who fired their coach. We were blown out by Georgia and our "best result" was a 7 point loss to Ohio State. Not a good data point when your best result is a loss. And even the wins were suspect - we needed OT to beat another team who fired their coach and a big comeback and OT to beat a below average Mississippi State.

Now let's look at some of the other teams:

Oklahoma - wins at Tennessee and Alabama.

Alabama - won at Georgia (this easily cancels out the FSU loss even though that loss is worse than ours at Florida)

Notre Dame - blowout wins at Pitt and Arkansas. Yes, I know pig sucked but they did what you are supposed to do and destroyed them.

Miami - blowout at Pitt and VT (again, they suck, but that's what you are supposed to do)

While this isn't the only data point, it's a pretty strong one that doesn't work in our favor. 

Where did you write two of our road losses were to #1 and #3 in the country? I can’t find it.

Posted
20 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

I'd argue that a team's postseason ranking is a more accurate metric. Game day ranking on the day it was played just reinforces what a fool's errand preseason rankings have always been. The SEC teams always seem to be overrated, USCe being the most egregious. Oh, and Penn St #2?

We used to complain about it when we were in the Big 12.

Yeah but Ohio State beat the #1 team in the country*!

*On week 1 based on pre-season rankings

Posted
3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So if Texas scheduled Pud State instead of Ohio St, would the Horns be comfortably in at 10-2 and above OU, ND, Vandy? 2 of those 3 teams they beat with same records?

Was Texas ranked after the Ohio St loss?

Would THAT ranking have them safely in the field?

Posted
16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Me, ESPN, NCAA and their official record keeper Stats Perform/LLC/INC, versus: guy on internet.

I think you're confused. The records indicate ranking at time for historical purposes. That's just documentation, not analysis. All the actual analysis is based upon what the teams turn out to be. Things like FEI, SP+, and you know, the actual playoff rankings, are all based upon the full season context. For our purposes, when comparing playoff resumes, you do that analysis based upon the complete picture.  Suggesting otherwise is moronic. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

The strongest argument against Texas - other than just "hurr durr three losses" - is our performance on the road this season. We'd almost definitely play a playoff game on the road, so the committee would ask - can this team win a game against a playoff team on the road? 

We played five true road games this season, going 2-3, and losing to a team who fired their coach. We were blown out by Georgia and our "best result" was a 7 point loss to Ohio State. Not a good data point when your best result is a loss. And even the wins were suspect - we needed OT to beat another team who fired their coach and a big comeback and OT to beat a below average Mississippi State.

Now let's look at some of the other teams:

Oklahoma - wins at Tennessee and Alabama.

Alabama - won at Georgia (this easily cancels out the FSU loss even though that loss is worse than ours at Florida)

Notre Dame - blowout wins at Pitt and Arkansas. Yes, I know pig sucked but they did what you are supposed to do and destroyed them.

Miami - blowout at Pitt and VT (again, they suck, but that's what you are supposed to do)

While this isn't the only data point, it's a pretty strong one that doesn't work in our favor. 

you lost me at "wins at Arkansas and VT". You are trying too hard. I guess that means Texas fans should be over the moon about the win at MSU. This is just intellectually dishonest. 

Posted
31 minutes ago, Gene Parmesan said:

If Sark hadn't cancelled the spring game that would have given the committee another data point in our favor. 

god fucking damnit gene

you spilled the tea

we missed an opportunity for a P2 Top 10 conference win AND a quality loss

Posted
Just now, Codaxx said:

you lost me at "wins at Arkansas and VT". You are trying too hard. I guess that means Texas fans should be over the moon about the win at MSU. This is just intellectually dishonest. 

I admitted that they sucked.

But so do Kentucky and Mississippi State and we looked like ass. We should have crushed those teams. 

Seriously, can anyone name one road game - regardless of the competition - that we looked competent other than the second half of Mississippi State?

Anyway this is moot. We're being left out for three losses and these empty suits will dig no deeper.

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