Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, The Drum said:

Our 3rd loss came to UGa. Bama 3rd loss came to UGA.

Sankey is going to burn this whole thing to the ground after this year either way. He is either pissed that Texas and Vandy get left out for 2 G5 opponents or a weak ACC participant, and/or he is pissed if Bama somehow misses the playoffs as an SEC title game contender. There is no world that this format continues in 2026. 

Edited by Vertigo
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, Vertigo said:

Sankey is going to burn this whole thing to the ground after this year either way. He is either pissed that Texas and Vandy get left out, and/or he is pissed if Bama somehow misses the playoffs as an SEC title game contender. There is no world that this format continues in 2026. 

They extended the deadline for the decision on the new format to late January bc they can’t agree. This year may not help find consensus 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Sankey is going to burn this whole thing to the ground after this year either way. He is either pissed that Texas and Vandy get left out for 2 G5 opponents or a weak ACC participant, and/or he is pissed if Bama somehow misses the playoffs as an SEC title game contender. There is no world that this format continues in 2026. 

Can we get a handshake on that?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

Four Super Conference alliance and they can have their own title game. 16 team playoff have a preseason that doesn’t count, you can schedule whoever you want. 

and the rest of the conferences can eat shit fuck your Cinderfella bullshit 

Posted (edited)

I really don't see schools refusing to schedule tough OOC if Texas is left out this year. You're not being "punished" for playing that game but it is considered that you lost that game. If you had won that game you'd be the top of the 2 loss teams and might even have been able to withstand a third loss to MSU or UK and still make the field. That's the advantage of scheduling those games, if you win, all the "tiebreakers" go your way, and in other years, I think it's going to be pretty rare that the OOC loss we're talking about for a bubble team happens to be the undefeated No. 1 team in the country, even if its tOSU, UM, or ND. 

To me the bigger outrage that should be the subject of conversation is how, in the world of bloated super conferences, a team like aggy manages to play only one team in conference that finished in the top half of the standings. Like, the odds of that happening would seem low, but it happened in the second year of the expansion to 16 teams. I guess the counter is that it cost them a spot in the CCG since their in conference SOS was the tiebreaker they lost in the 4 way tie, but still, if they had even two more games against the top half of the league, they wouldn't even be in the CFP conversation. The roller coaster would have dropped in October per annual turdition. 

Edited by 'stache
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I admitted that they sucked.

But so do Kentucky and Mississippi State and we looked like ass. We should have crushed those teams. 

Seriously, can anyone name one road game - regardless of the competition - that we looked competent other than the second half of Mississippi State?

Anyway this is moot. We're being left out for three losses and these empty suits will dig no deeper.

We played 5 top 15 teams.  We had 3 rival games.  UF on the road.  That is a lot of high intensity games.  If you’ve played sports, if you’ve watched sports, you know that teams have let downs on certain days, certain games.  And some games, you simply aren’t at your best.  So throw out the 3 shitbird games.  That leaves you Kentucky and MSU.

i am not saying it excuses the performance but context surrounding the games adds some understanding.

Kentucky had two weeks to prepare.  It was a night game.  It was a Stoops and all that implies.  They never led.  It was the 3rd consecutive game away from home. That is something no other contender in the SEC had to do.  Bama never hit the road in consecutive weeks.  That is an advantage for them, disadvantage for us.

MSU.  They beat ASU at home, took Tennessee to OT.  It was our 4th consecutive week away from home.  For a higher end team, I’m not sure there is a historical precedent for such a long non-home streak. We were missing an all American.

 

If nothing else those wins speak to our endurance.  So not only were we asked to beat more high-end teams, we were asked to beat our lower end teams under unusual circumstances.  I’d be surprised if strength of schedule accounts for that.  If not, it should and only strengthens the argument that our schedule was damn difficult.

  • Hook 'Em 6
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They extended the deadline for the decision on the new format to late January bc they can’t agree. This year may not help find consensus 

This is so easy to fix. 1 G5 scrub champion for legal purposes. Big 12 champion is in, ACC champion is in, ACC and Big 12 runner up play each other for another spot. 5 auto bids for SEC and BIG, ranks 1-5 in the conference. 2 at larges to any teams left out or that dont have a conference. 

Posted
12 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Absolutely not. My only kinks are that a chick has to be legitimately attractive and also no fat chicks.

And you are embarrassing yourself by rationalizing any moment in time in which O’Donnell was suitable. 


Agreed, personally mine ranges from Nicole Kidman to Kate Beckinsale analogs and I’m a sucker for the accent and married one.
 

 No interest in anything outside my kink.

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Fondren & Main said:

Aggy did beat Notre Dame.  Texas can play Rice, UTSA, UTEP, Texas State and Sam Houston moving forward OOC as far as I'm concerned.

And if aggy had lost to ND and played even one of the other teams in the top half of the SEC standings they'd be at 3 losses and nobody would care that they played ND, they'd be out. The fact that UT is even still in the discussion with a legitimate outside shot is because of the helmet logo and that's fair. I think the last spot should come down to OU, ND, and UT.

Edited by 'stache
  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted (edited)

It's not a completely unreasonable decision for the committee to leave Ole Miss out of the playoffs.  It's not just losing their head coach.  Kiffin is taking the entire offensive staff with him. 

It's comparable to leaving out Florida State in 2023.  FSU was undefeated and conference champions.  But they lost Jordan Travis late in the season, and while they still won the rest of their games, they were a completely different team and everyone could see it on the field.  Here's what the committee said:

Quote

"Florida State is a different team than it was the first 11 weeks," CFP selection committee chairman Boo Corrigan told ESPN. "As you look at who they are as a team right now, without Jordan Travis, without the offensive dynamic he brings, they are a different team and the committee voted Alabama four and Florida State five."

ESPN: Undefeated Florida State left out of College Football Playoff

I'm still resigned to Texas getting left out.  But dropping Ole Miss in the final CFP rankings has some precedent.  

Edited by South Austin
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Just now, South Austin said:

It's not a completely unreasonable decision for the committee to leave Ole Miss out of the playoffs.  It's not just losing their head coach.  Kiffin is taking the entire offensive staff with him. 

It's not so different than leaving out Florida State in 2023.  FSU was undefeated and conference champions.  But they lost Jordan Travis late in the season, and while they still won the rest of their games, they were a completely different team and everyone could see it on the field.  Here's what the committee said:

ESPN: Undefeated Florida State left out of College Football Playoff

I'm still resigned to Texas getting left out.  But dropping Ole Miss in the final CFP rankings has some precedent.  

No shot. Ole Miss wont be penalized AT ALL imo. 

Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Doesn't matter, playing for in the CCG is a + data point for them which would put them in over us if a 3 loss team were to make it.

The tOSU game is also a plus data point.

And Bama has a non-data point in EIU, so we will have the same overall number of data points.

Edited by JBJ
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

If we aren't gonna make it (and I don't think we are) I want to know tonight to I can root for the appropriate teams on Saturday to cause maximum chaos.  Would be rooting for BYU, Georgia, Duke to all win big.  

Posted
4 minutes ago, Had Enough said:

We played 5 top 15 teams.  We had 3 rival games.  UF on the road.  That is a lot of high intensity games.  If you’ve played sports, if you’ve watched sports, you know that teams have let downs on certain days, certain games.  And some games, you simply aren’t at your best.  So throw out the 3 shitbird games.  That leaves you Kentucky and MSU.

i am not saying it excuses the performance but context surrounding the games adds some understanding.

Kentucky had two weeks to prepare.  It was a night game.  It was a Stoops and all that implies.  They never led.  It was the 3rd consecutive game away from home. That is something no other contender in the SEC had to do.  Bama never hit the road in consecutive weeks.  That is an advantage for them, disadvantage for us.

MSU.  They beat ASU at home, took Tennessee to OT.  It was our 4th consecutive week away from home.  For a higher end team, I’m not sure there is a historical precedent for such a long non-home streak. We were missing an all American.

 

If nothing else those wins speak to our endurance.  So not only were we asked to beat more high-end teams, we were asked to beat our lower end teams under unusual circumstances.  I’d be surprised if strength of schedule accounts for that.  If not, it should and only strengthens the argument that our schedule was damn difficult.

I agree with this take. The context of the games matters and we've played a very difficult schedule in the aggregate. 

My take on road games was more of "if I was on the committee and had to argue Texas' exclusion, then what would I use?" I was trying to come up with something legitimate other than three losses or the lazy "don't lose to Florida" take. 

That's what I was able to come up with. 

Posted
Just now, cabowabo said:

If we aren't gonna make it (and I don't think we are) I want to know tonight to I can root for the appropriate teams on Saturday to cause maximum chaos.  Would be rooting for BYU, Georgia, Duke to all win big.  

agreed, if we aren't getting in hope for some chaos that forces the powers that be to deal with the broken state of this mess 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
Just now, cabowabo said:

If we aren't gonna make it (and I don't think we are) I want to know tonight to I can root for the appropriate teams on Saturday to cause maximum chaos.  Would be rooting for BYU, Georgia, Duke to all win big.  

Actually, you want BYU to barely win, a blowout for TTU lets them get pushed out of the playoffs and no chaos occurs. 

Posted
Just now, cabowabo said:

If we aren't gonna make it (and I don't think we are) I want to know tonight to I can root for the appropriate teams on Saturday to cause maximum chaos.  Would be rooting for BYU, Georgia, Duke to all win big.  

I'm rooting for Duke so that two G5 champs make it which is the definition of chaos lol. Match one with aggy and they might even win. Alternatively, as much as I don't like Tech, I'd root like hell for them to blow out aggy if they got matched.

Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

No shot. Ole Miss wont be penalized AT ALL imo. 

Maybe.  But in the discussions over whether to drop Ole Miss, or where to seed them if they are in, I can see committee discussion along the lines of:  "Sure, their DC is staying.  But who's calling the offensive plays?  Who's scouting the first round opponent and formulating an offensive game plan?  Who's managing the clock and making halftime adjustments on the offensive side of the ball?"  

I can't think of a data point for comparison, but has a highly-ranked team finished the regular season, only to play a bowl game after its head coach and offensive staff left the program?  I have to imagine that throws even highly-talented teams in disarray.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

It will mostly be our inability to hold onto big leads and put away crappy teams that will keep us out.

The results last weekend also hurt us.  Sagarin is one of the few algorithms where Texas is ranked decently.  But take a look at the top 14:

 1. Ohio State

2. Notre Dame (!)

3. Indiana

4. Oregon

5. Texas Tech

6. Miami-Fl

7. Alabama

8. Georgia

9. Aggie

10. Ole Miss

11. Vanderbilt (!)

12. Texas

13. Oklahoma

14. Penn State (!)

Lose by a little against good teams, and run up the score vs the cupcakes.

 

Texas struggled on the road, even against shitty teams.  We damn near lost to Kentucky, then they decide they might as well quit and we get this: 

image.png.6046b1e5384b5bf98848f15d33ed7095.png

Furk.  We basically lost v Kentucky as far as some models are concerned.

 

Then you have something like this when a "contender" plays a mediocre team:

image.png.051fe8afcb6fda36212646f76629302d.png

We were ahead of the fightin' Pavias by 24 heading into the 4th.  Gave up 21 points and scored 0 more.

Or here's Ole Miss v Cowbell

image.png.6f92e49045f4862d1f42800ca172c8a4.png

It was cool we were able to come back and win with 24 4th quarter points and another 7 in OT, but it was problematic that we were in the situation to begin with.

FEI hates us.  We're 18th, behind two 8-4 teams in Washington and Iowa (and they are 7-4 in FBS games, FEI doesn't even count FCS).  We punished Aggie more than rewarded ourselves with the win, dropping them to 11th.  Meanwhile the Pavias are up to 8th.  Just crazy.

But SP+ hates us even more.  We're 22nd there, whereas Aggie only dropped to 8th.  Vandy up to 11th where Alabama is 12th (lol).

I suppose part of it for the last two are due to them rewarding efficiency.  Vanderbilt is certainly efficient.  Their defense sucks, but their offense is really efficient.

There's a lot of work to do for next season.  There are a variety of roster holes that need filled if we want to be a contender.  There are several coaching changes that need to be made.  Maybe it is a blessing to miss the playoffs so the staff can focus on fixing our areas of weakness to make a run next year.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

dont have a conference

So long as the team's record is as good or better than one of the G5 at large, to make it fair. And also because fuck ND

Posted
2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Maybe.  But in the discussions over whether to drop Ole Miss, or where to seed them if they are in, I can see committee discussion along the lines of:  "Sure, their DC is staying.  But who's calling the offensive plays?  Who's scouting the first round opponent and formulating an offensive game plan?  Who's managing the clock and making halftime adjustments on the offensive side of the ball?"  

I can't think of a data point for comparison, but has a highly-ranked team finished the regular season, only to play a bowl game after its head coach and offensive staff left the program?  I have to imagine that throws even highly-talented teams in disarray.

You are talking about a committee comprised of former coaches that appreciate the calendar is a mess which is causing the changes before the playoffs + AD's who appreciate their school could get f'd if their team is in a similar position with a hot coach and would never want to set that precedent. I don't think any chance a committee with that background punishes Ole Miss regardless of whether they should or not.

Posted
6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm rooting for Duke so that two G5 champs make it which is the definition of chaos lol. Match one with aggy and they might even win. Alternatively, as much as I don't like Tech, I'd root like hell for them to blow out aggy if they got matched.

A James Madison upset of aggy at College Station would be glorious and would heal some of the wounds from being left out.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

You are talking about a committee comprised of former coaches that appreciate the calendar is a mess which is causing the changes before the playoffs + AD's who appreciate their school could get f'd if their team is in a similar position with a hot coach and would never want to set that precedent. I don't think any chance a committee with that background punishes Ole Miss regardless of whether they should or not.

I get that perspective, and understand I'm arguing in a vacuum.  But if part of the discussion is -- as it has been in the past -- who are the best teams right now for the playoffs, an 11-1 Ole Miss team right now is going to be worse that the same team was a week ago.  That much worse to drop from playoff consideration completely?  I don't know.  But it's a valid discussion.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

I'd say Texas is superior to Vandy, ND, Miami, and whatever high school team gets in by way of conference championship (Virginia, Tulane), and at the same time none of this group is worthy of being in anyway.

Compared to the playoff field, I'd say Texas is superior to A&M and OU by a couple scores each, and maybe about a 1 TD dog to Ohio State if that game is played in Columbus. 

Edited by utee94
  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Posted
4 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Super conferences have had more effect than NIL with regards to the scheduling problem 

That’s not my point. The SOS disparity is a huge problem when teams don’t play a lot of OOC games. SEC and Big 10 get penalized. 

Posted (edited)

One big difference between FSU 2023 and Ole Miss this year is that we all got to witness the horror of a Travisless FSU team whereas we don't get to see Ole Miss play without Kiffin until the playoff/bowl game. 

That said, there is absolutely precedent for dropping Ole Miss out of consideration due to the staff changes. 

ETA - dropping Ole Miss also screws Kiffin out of any bonuses he would have received for their performance in the playoffs. 

Edited by The Dog
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

The more I sift through the other bubble teams, the more I think we have a decent shot.

---

We passed Michigan and Utah in SOR, and I think those are gimmes.  It's impossible to keep Vandy above us.

---

We have 3 good wins, 2 good losses, 1 bad loss.

Miami has 1 good win, 2 bad losses.

Notre Dame has no good wins (maybe USC?, but that a far worse win than above), 2 good losses.

---

BYU and Bama seem out if they lose.  Tech's SOR hits the floor if they lose, I really think this might be elimination for them as well.

---

When you start comparing resumes higher up, it's really hard to keep OU above us.  We hold SEC standing and h2h.

-------

I think 13 is our absolute floor for this week, which might end up first out if things go chalk, but, man, there's strong arguments we end up 8 if things do go chalk.

Edited by JBJ
  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
10 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

A James Madison upset of aggy at College Station would be glorious and would heal some of the wounds from being left out.

Personally I was hoping they draw Tech and get bounced by a B12 school. 

  • Haha 1
Posted
11 hours ago, Hermanator said:

Fantastic. Making the playoffs when you probably don't deserve to because of corporate corruption. 

Very proud moment to be a longhorn if that happens

"Don't Deserve" based on what?  3 losses?  Why?  That's as silly a take as saying a team "deserves" it for playing a crappy schedule and only have 1-2 losses.

9 hours ago, dcar00 said:

the problem is Bama beat Georgia at Georgia already.  Georgia is the measuring stick in the SEC and they beat them at their place.

Bama is in. 

Personally I think our only path is Tech beats BYU and someone on the committee has the balls to say

1. ND has an SOS in the 30's compared to our #6

2. Notre Dame beat no one in the top 25 except USC(Pitt should drop out), lost to the only Top 15 teams they played and we have 3 top 15 wins and the best game against the #1 team all season and it was on the road.

why is ND in over Texas?  the only reason at that point is the number in the loss column.  Texas has proven they can beat top 10 playoff teams, ND has not.

That said, ND is the one helmet that can override Texas.

 

 

I don't know why people keep saying this when they're 10th, so they can't drop at all, and if BYU wins someone has to be knocked out, and it won't be top 5 Tech with only their 2nd loss coming in the CCG.

5 hours ago, petscii said:

Texas is not being penalized for losing to Ohio State or Georgia. They are being penalized for losing the fucking Florida game.

The team that beat Texas and kept Texas out of the CFP is Texas.

Why is this stupid take still coming?  It's because of the 3 losses. Doesn't matter who the 3 losses are.  They could have ONLY lost to Florida and Miss ST or Kentucky or Arkansas, and as long as it was ONLY 2 losses they're in the playoffs, easily.

The ONLY thing keeping them out is "A third loss"

4 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So if Texas scheduled Pud State instead of Ohio St, would the Horns be comfortably in at 10-2 and above OU, ND, Vandy? 2 of those 3 teams they beat with same records?

Exactly

3 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Texas is being penalized for losing 3 games, who they were to does not matter. Don’t lose 3 games

100%

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

SMU 2 losses, Bama 3 losses - Sound familiar?

SMU was ranked Top 10 and Bama wasn't. That's the biggest difference.  And the comittee made a huge point LAST YEAR to say the final rankings would not drop someone for losing in the CCG.

They have no preached that this year and can change that...it's not a rule.  But a guidline.

1 hour ago, MrX said:

SMU was also 8 going into the ACC championship game at 11-1, with Indiana and Boise between them and Bama. This year, Bama will be going into champ week on the bubble. It COULD be treated differently (Probably won’t be). 

Exactly. They had 1 loss going into the CCG and were ranked a few spots above.  Much difference scenario this time.

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Doesn't matter 3 > 2

sure until they pick up a 3rd loss

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They get their 3rd by playing for a conference championship, we got our 3rd losing to Florida

No our 3rd loss was Georgia too. Try to keep up.

1 hour ago, petscii said:

If you are going to fantasize, why not dream about the scenario where we beat Georgia in the last few years?

 

 

sure...but we don't HAVE to "fantasize" about a team we literally scheduled and didn't have to like our conference schedule.

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I agree with this take. The context of the games matters and we've played a very difficult schedule in the aggregate. 

My take on road games was more of "if I was on the committee and had to argue Texas' exclusion, then what would I use?" I was trying to come up with something legitimate other than three losses or the lazy "don't lose to Florida" take. 

That's what I was able to come up with. 

Nah this commitee has proven that how you win, when you win, or how you lose matters...only if you Won or Loss.  They're taking nothing esle into account...so I ask...why are they even there?

 

Just use fucking rankings/polls since that's all they're doing too.  Going by wins/losses.

Posted
27 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I really don't see schools refusing to schedule tough OOC if Texas is left out this year. You're not being "punished" for playing that game but it is considered that you lost that game. If you had won that game you'd be the top of the 2 loss teams and might even have been able to withstand a third loss to MSU or UK and still make the field. That's the advantage of scheduling those games, if you win, all the "tiebreakers" go your way, and in other years, I think it's going to be pretty rare that the OOC loss we're talking about for a bubble team happens to be the undefeated No. 1 team in the country, even if its tOSU, UM, or ND. 

To me the bigger outrage that should be the subject of conversation is how, in the world of bloated super conferences, a team like aggy manages to play only one team in conference that finished in the top half of the standings. Like, the odds of that happening would seem low, but it happened in the second year of the expansion to 16 teams. I guess the counter is that it cost them a spot in the CCG since their in conference SOS was the tiebreaker they lost in the 4 way tie, but still, if they had even two more games against the top half of the league, they wouldn't even be in the CFP conversation. The roller coaster would have dropped in October per annual turdition. 

in the world of SEC the big 4 were Florida/LSU/Geo/Bama.  so teams and SEC  would try to get no more than 2 of those on the schedule.  aggy has been ducking Georgia for years because they argued for playing LSU all the time.  They got Bama of course some years.  

FL and LSU being asswater is unexpected and OleMiss being good is unexpected historically.  the thing is Bama and Georgia are pretty much always good.  of course aggy complained enough that in 2027 and 2029 we get both.  the 26 and 28 we get LSU/FL.  Aggy of course never has both of them on the schedule the same year.

Bama's got an easy road.  their 3 permanent rivals are Tenn, MSU, Auburn.  Tenn and Aub can be very good(not great) but they are just as likely to be mid to asswater also.

 

 

Posted
1 minute ago, BigHornedLurker said:

yea i dont want aggy to have an easy path even if JMU would be funny, i would rather them have to grind against tech and face ohio state 

Texas Tech is going to destroy aggy if they play. aggy are not beating any of the top 5 teams.

  • Drool 1
Posted
1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

in the world of SEC the big 4 were Florida/LSU/Geo/Bama.  so teams and SEC  would try to get no more than 2 of those on the schedule.  aggy has been ducking Georgia for years because they argued for playing LSU all the time.  They got Bama of course some years.  

FL and LSU being asswater is unexpected and OleMiss being good is unexpected historically.  the thing is Bama and Georgia are pretty much always good.  of course aggy complained enough that in 2027 and 2029 we get both.  the 26 and 28 we get LSU/FL.  Aggy of course never has both of them on the schedule the same year.

Bama's got an easy road.  their 3 permanent rivals are Tenn, MSU, Auburn.  Tenn and Aub can be very good(not great) but they are just as likely to be mid to asswater also.

 

 

I think you think Aggie has way more power than they do with SEC schedules.  They don't really care what they think.

Posted
11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

One big difference between FSU 2023 and Ole Miss this year is that we all got to witness the horror of a Travisless FSU team whereas we don't get to see Ole Miss play without Kiffin until the playoff/bowl game. 

This is a very good point.  I recall FSU looking like dogshit and limping to a conference championship.  Texas fans at the time were praying for Louisville to beat FSU in the conference title game, but apparently after that the committee thought, "Well, we've seen enough of FSU."

If the committee debates at all whether to keep Ole Miss, I can see an argument of "Who knows how this same team will perform without Kiffin and the offensive staff" weighing in favor of giving them a shot.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
8 minutes ago, JBJ said:

The more I sift through the other bubble teams, the more I think we have a decent shot.

---

We passed Michigan and Utah in SOR, and I think those are gimmes.  It's impossible to keep Vandy above us.

---

We have 3 good wins, 2 good losses, 1 bad loss.

Miami has 1 good win, 2 bad losses.

Notre Dame has no good wins (maybe USC?, but that a far worse win than above), 2 good losses.

---

BYU and Bama seem out if they lose.  Tech's SOR hits the floor if they lose, I really think this might be elimination for them as well.

---

When you start comparing resumes higher up, it's really hard to keep OU above us.  We hold SEC standing and h2h.

-------

I think 13 is our absolute floor for this week, which might end up first out if things go chalk, but, man, there's strong arguments we end up 8 if things do go chalk.

I think we're out regardless, but a few things I find interesting:

Miami and Notre Dame have really thin resumes as you pointed out. 

I think the Big XII is a one bid league and Tech might get left out if they lose to BYU. 

I'm very curious what they do with aggy. That ND win was doing all of the heavy lifting for them even as they were undefeated. They really don't have anything on their resume that stands out. If we're left out then aggy should fall to being a road team in the first round IMHO.

Posted

I can absolutely see a scenario where the committee doesn't want to reward Kiffin for any Ole Miss wins, potentially contributing to a decision to drop Ole Miss. I don't think it happens. But if they have to weigh subjective data points like "how do you treat Texas' loss to Ohio State?" then they could definitely say "we don't want to reward a coach that bails on his team midway through a playoff run". 

Posted
2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

NCAA, ESPN, and the Texas Longhorns record the rankings contemporaneously.  IMO this makes sense, because teams trend and the rankings tries -- imperfectly as it does -- to best reflect them.

You could argue that the earlier rankings are less reliable and try to unweight them, but the way its done is the way its done and is just as valid.

 

2 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

We need to stop with this whole, "they were a top 25 team when we played them" business. It should be based off what they are in the CFP at the end of the season. Like Pitt obviously shouldnt be ranked. Missouri never shouldve been ranked. But look at Texas's wins. All solid top 15 CFP teams. The losses? Top 3 CFP teams on the road. 

I have no problem with Texas (and others) listing rankings at the time of the game in historical records (media guides, etc). However, when you're trying to figure out the best 12 teams to put in the college football playoffs, you *have* to look at the rankings as they currently are. That is 100% the better way to overall evaluate what team has done the most and has the best resume.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 minute ago, South Austin said:

This is a very good point.  I recall FSU looking like dogshit and limping to a conference championship.  Texas fans at the time were praying for Louisville to beat FSU in the conference title game, but apparently after that the committee thought, "Well, we've seen enough of FSU."

 

Ironically while we thought we might be out if FSU won it was actually an Alabama/FSU discussion. They stayed true to their word that head to head mattered. 

Posted
39 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I really don't see schools refusing to schedule tough OOC if Texas is left out this year. You're not being "punished" for playing that game but it is considered that you lost that game. If you had won that game you'd be the top of the 2 loss teams and might even have been able to withstand a third loss to MSU or UK and still make the field. That's the advantage of scheduling those games, if you win, all the "tiebreakers" go your way, and in other years, I think it's going to be pretty rare that the OOC loss we're talking about for a bubble team happens to be the undefeated No. 1 team in the country, even if its tOSU, UM, or ND. 

To me the bigger outrage that should be the subject of conversation is how, in the world of bloated super conferences, a team like aggy manages to play only one team in conference that finished in the top half of the standings. Like, the odds of that happening would seem low, but it happened in the second year of the expansion to 16 teams. I guess the counter is that it cost them a spot in the CCG since their in conference SOS was the tiebreaker they lost in the 4 way tie, but still, if they had even two more games against the top half of the league, they wouldn't even be in the CFP conversation. The roller coaster would have dropped in October per annual turdition. 

Sark was just on Full Ride and he straight up said he would cancel the game next year if the committee does not come correct because he has a responsibility to the players and the University of Texas to put the team in the best position.  He quoted the bullet points on the CFP flyer. Amazingly Childers was all about Texas getting in, even over Vandy and OU. Neiheisal  said the committee has never looked at SOS and only looks at w/l. Sark did a great job. Even congratulated Neuheisal for his son's performance as interim OC at UCLA. 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

I'd argue that a team's postseason ranking is a more accurate metric. Game day ranking on the day it was played just reinforces what a fool's errand preseason rankings have always been. The SEC teams always seem to be overrated, USCe being the most egregious. Oh, and Penn St #2?

We used to complain about it when we were in the Big 12.

Rankings, in general, are stupid.  They are also a criminally negligent way to pick playoff teams and national champions.  Fucking UIL does a 1000% better job than whoever is running college football. 

There are 70 teams in the P4 plus ND, Oregon St. and Washington St.  7 10-team regional roughly equally strong divisions, regular season is 9 division games plus 3 out of division games that cannot be against teams below the second division (G5), top two from each division make the playoffs automatically, 2 at large spots for good teams that are third in their divisions. The two at large spots are determined by the highest ranked non-top 2 teams, thus preserving the polls for the limited purpose of picking the last two in and all the debate and shit surrounding that for those sickos who like it. $20M payroll cap for every team that increases 5-10% every year, NIL unlimited, but strictly enforced - has to be legitimate value received.  Penalty for NIL violation is automatic forfeiture of postseason.  The revenue sharing part would be the hardest.  It's either a graduated payout with the best teams getting a larger share or all 70 teams get an equal distribution.  I would probably do equal payments with fairly large bonuses for making the playoffs and winning at each round. The best teams will make the playoffs more often and have more revenue that way. One national signing day the second Friday in February.  No early enrollees.  Schools can't talk to coaches until after that coach's team's season is over.  Portal is open March 1st-June 1st.

Pick it apart.

Edited by Ojo Rojo
Posted (edited)

I get that most of us have extreme bias towards the Longhorns, but in reality we are one of the best 10 teams in the country. Texas once again took a final drive against tOSU to lose with a dropped pass and could've tied the game.

We got beat up by Florida, but "it's the SEC". I much rather lose to Florida then lose to FSU or some crap. Also, if uga did not do that onside kick maybe that score would've been closer but that play totally changed the mentality of how that game was being played despite uga outplaying us all game.

All in all, we lost to the #1 team in the country and the soon to be #2 team in the country (I think uga will win the SECCG against Bama and they should be undefeated right now but Kirby didn't kick the go ahead fg!!!). So, yea we got the Florida loss but we can beat every team in the top 10 besides tOSU and uga. We are also a top revenue generating program that brings eyes and puts more money into people's pockets.

Edited by txexlonghorn23
Posted
45 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I really don't see schools refusing to schedule tough OOC if Texas is left out this year. You're not being "punished" for playing that game but it is considered that you lost that game. If you had won that game you'd be the top of the 2 loss teams and might even have been able to withstand a third loss to MSU or UK and still make the field. That's the advantage of scheduling those games, if you win, all the "tiebreakers" go your way, and in other years, I think it's going to be pretty rare that the OOC loss we're talking about for a bubble team happens to be the undefeated No. 1 team in the country, even if its tOSU, UM, or ND. 

To me the bigger outrage that should be the subject of conversation is how, in the world of bloated super conferences, a team like aggy manages to play only one team in conference that finished in the top half of the standings. Like, the odds of that happening would seem low, but it happened in the second year of the expansion to 16 teams. I guess the counter is that it cost them a spot in the CCG since their in conference SOS was the tiebreaker they lost in the 4 way tie, but still, if they had even two more games against the top half of the league, they wouldn't even be in the CFP conversation. The roller coaster would have dropped in October per annual turdition. 

A&M played two teams in the top half of the SEC standings at EOY: Texas and Mizzou (8). The odds of that happening appear to be pretty high, because that also happened to Texas with UGA and A&M (7), to identical results of 1-1 in the first year of the superconferences. Unbalanced schedules are inherent to this. 

Posted

here is my predection for tonight:

1.   Ohio State (12-0)

2.   Indiana (12-0)

3.   Georgia (11-1)

4.   Texas Tech (11-1)

5.   Oregon (11-1)

6.   Texas A&M (11-1)

7.    Ole Miss (11-1)

8.   Notre Dame (10-2)

9.   Oklahoma (10-2)

10.   Alabama (10-2)

11.   BYU (11-1)

12.   Miami (10-2)

13.   Texas (9-3)

14.   Utah (10-2)

15.   Vanderbilt (10-2)

 

I'd love to be wrong, but I don't see this committee doing anything earth shattering 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...