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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, JGrayDBU said:

I only have three wishes: 

1. Ohio State win by at least 14 points. 

2. Pittsburgh over Miami

3. Ou lose

 

The one nobody seems to be talking about is the Ohio St. game.  The Big 10 is perceived to be very, very  strong at the top, so if Ohio St. messes up and  even plays a very close game and wins by less than 4 points, that hurts our chances, I think.   The big 10 would lobby super hard to put Michigan above Texas.  

Not concerned about Vandy or Alabama at all.  Even though 'bama probably loses to Georgia and remains right there with us in the final numbers, we would not play them until the 2nd week of the playoffs.  Since we have head to head against Vandy they are not a factor. 

 OU is 1-2 against top 10 teams, played us, Ole Miss, and Alabama.   

I like us in the #12 position, playing at Tech.  That would be fun.   Big 12 against SEC.  

After we beat Tech, we most likely have to go up against 'bama.  Wow! Tuesday night is going to be fun.  

 

 

 

 

 

This is a good point on Michigan that I haven’t seen discussed before. If they lose but hang tough today they’ll still be in the beauty contest, which we absolutely don’t need. Committee might be tempted to balance out the numbers of SEC and B1G teams. 

Edited by tokamak
Posted
2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Jesus Christ, let me slow it down for some of y'all.

Any team in the SEC can lose two conference games and get in.  It doesn't matter which two conference games.  That's exactly what we did.

Our third loss is against the #1 team in the country, on the road, in a game we did not have to schedule.

If we don't get in over teams like BYU and Utah, who played nobody, and who absolutely nobody thinks would beat us on a neutral field right now, then everyone will stop scheduling big OOC games immediately.  Because if we'd played Rice instead of Ohio State, we're in and it's not even close.

It's this you double digit IQs.  We are somewhere #6-8 if we didn't play tOSU.

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Posted

Regarding BYU, Let’s look at what the committee did last year: SMU entered the ACC Championship game w/ only 1 loss (out of conference to BYU).  SMU lost ACC Championship to Clemson for 2nd loss.  Committee still put 2-loss ACC runner-up in over 3-loss Bama.  A 1-loss BYU losing playing in Big XII title game and taking a 2nd loss to Texas Tech could still be a problem if committee stays consistent

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Yesh said:

2023 Florida State shows that even handling your business isn't enough.

 

 

Disclaimer: I agree they should have been left out.  A great example of the committee looking beyond loss column bias.

The committee is looking to put on a show. End of story 

Posted (edited)

Haven’t read the last few pages but what if UGA destroys Bama? Do we take that spot or does ole miss get it

 

nvm ole miss should be in either way

 

Edited by Sawbonz
Posted
24 minutes ago, Jimbob said:

Aggie is not the strongest eyeball draw, and  I get rematches are not the most popular.  But dropping Aggie to 5 and slide us in at 12 would bring the best ratings of anyone they could play in the 1st round.   

We aren't going to be 12 seed, G5 and acc will be.  It's 10 seed or nothing (unless a lot of crazy shit happens and we get 9).

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The committee is looking to put on a show. End of story 

I agree, and this is my hope.  We have examples, another besides 2023 FSU is 2014 when TCU was ranked #3 in the second to last rankings, then got passed by Ohio State and Florida State after the conference championship games.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

It's this you double digit IQs.  We are somewhere #6-8 if we didn't play tOSU.

Exactly. So stuck on “durr but Florida!” And forgetting the true reason. 

7 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Regarding BYU, Let’s look at what the committee did last year: SMU entered the ACC Championship game w/ only 1 loss (out of conference to BYU).  SMU lost ACC Championship to Clemson for 2nd loss.  Committee still put 2-loss ACC runner-up in over 3-loss Bama.  A 1-loss BYU losing playing in Big XII title game and taking a 2nd loss to Texas Tech could still be a problem if committee stays consistent

Different year and bama did NOT have our resume.  They lost to a bad OU team late late in the year and they only had one Top 10 win.  
 

they lost to a 8 win vandy too as well as OU and the. Tennessee who was top 10.

Texas has 2 losses to the #1 team and #4 team.  And wins over #3, 18, 14 and vandy was top 10 when they played.  
 

everyone is saying “bama last year” without looking at the resumes. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

We aren't going to be 12 seed, G5 and acc will be.  It's 10 seed or nothing (unless a lot of crazy shit happens and we get 9).

We need to be at least 12 on Tuesday and then hope bama loses the SEC title game to fall out and BYU too. 

1 minute ago, TexasExe14 said:

Who would we play if we were in? I’d assume we would be the last in. I know it depends on who wins conference games.

Thinking they’d be 10 to get in. So #7. 
 

wanna bet it’s Aggie?  Or Ole Miss/Oregon maybe? 

Posted
5 minutes ago, TexasExe14 said:

Who would we play if we were in? I’d assume we would be the last in. I know it depends on who wins conference games.

1 seed would be Ohio st lol

4 minutes ago, Drew said:

We need to be at least 12 on Tuesday and then hope bama loses the SEC title game to fall out and BYU too. 

Thinking they’d be 10 to get in. So #7. 
 

wanna bet it’s Aggie?  Or Ole Miss/Oregon maybe? 

Thought I read the conference title game can’t hurt you?

Posted
1 hour ago, JGrayDBU said:

I only have three wishes: 

1. Ohio State win by at least 14 points. 

2. Pittsburgh over Miami

3. Ou lose

 

The one nobody seems to be talking about is the Ohio St. game.  The Big 10 is perceived to be very, very  strong at the top, so if Ohio St. messes up and  even plays a very close game and wins by less than 4 points, that hurts our chances, I think.   The big 10 would lobby super hard to put Michigan above Texas.  

Not concerned about Vandy or Alabama at all.  Even though 'bama probably loses to Georgia and remains right there with us in the final numbers, we would not play them until the 2nd week of the playoffs.  Since we have head to head against Vandy they are not a factor. 

 OU is 1-2 against top 10 teams, played us, Ole Miss, and Alabama.   

I like us in the #12 position, playing at Tech.  That would be fun.   Big 12 against SEC.  

After we beat Tech, we most likely have to go up against 'bama.  Wow! Tuesday night is going to be fun.  

 

 

 

 

 

It’s straight seeding I believe. We’d have be to 10th to make it in because the likely ACC champion and the G5 team is going to be ranked behind us.

Pitt beating Miami and USF pulling a miracle to beat BYU are the most important results today. Really need 1 team each from the Big 12 and the ACC. 
 

Notre Dame isn’t losing to Stanford. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

1 seed would be Ohio st lol

Thought I read the conference title game can’t hurt you?

Last year it didn’t.  Who says the same this year? 

Posted
Just now, hookem2010 said:

Why does Pitt beating Miami matter? ACC is only getting 1 in regardless.

No Miami may not even play in the conference title game and that means a 2 loss Miami may get in as well as the auto bid(which is why auto bids are dumb) 

Posted
1 minute ago, Drew said:

Last year it didn’t.  Who says the same this year? 

I would guess the committee designated spokesperson on Tuesday will say so, as we approach CCG weekend. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Jesus Christ, let me slow it down for some of y'all.

Any team in the SEC can lose two conference games and get in.  It doesn't matter which two conference games.  That's exactly what we did.

Our third loss is against the #1 team in the country, on the road, in a game we did not have to schedule.

If we don't get in over teams like BYU and Utah, who played nobody, and who absolutely nobody thinks would beat us on a neutral field right now, then everyone will stop scheduling big OOC games immediately.  Because if we'd played Rice instead of Ohio State, we're in and it's not even close.

100% this. We should be in if either Bama or OU lose today. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Drew said:

No Miami may not even play in the conference title game and that means a 2 loss Miami may get in as well as the auto bid(which is why auto bids are dumb) 

ACC will get 1 bid. If they cant win that Mickey Mouse conference, they arent getting in. 

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Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

ACC will get 1 bid. If they cant win that Mickey Mouse conference, they arent getting in. 

I hope you’re right and I agree.  Just saying with their ranking.  We should jump them. ND too but we all know we won’t. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Need all 5 of these to happen including a jumping Utah to get to 10. 

Screenshot_20251129_064823_Chrome.thumb.jpg.098f3a769dc13c9e1c14f6b0ef19fc9c.jpg

I may be oversimplifying this but I think all Texas needs is for lsu to upset OU and we are in, as long as the expected win occurs (OSU over Michigan). Texas will jump Miami, Utah, and Vanderbilt after beating a@m and that will make Texas one of five sec teams in (Georgia, bama, A&M, ole Miss)

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Posted

An Auburn win + Kiffin leaving OM would be chaotic. Then assuming UGA beats OM next week, the committee can use Kiffin leaving to keep them out of the playoffs even if that is completely unfair to the players. But then again they trusted Kiffin by going to OM.

Posted
1 minute ago, Drew said:

I hope you’re right and I agree.  Just saying with their ranking.  We should jump them. ND too but we all know we won’t. 

ND's fake hype team is a stain on this sport. Every year they are fucking up the rankings with their inflated media propped up ranking. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

I may be oversimplifying this but I think all Texas needs is for lsu to upset OU and we are in, as long as the expected win occurs (OSU over Michigan). Texas will jump Miami, Utah, and Vanderbilt after beating a@m and that will make Texas one of five sec teams in (Georgia, bama, A&M, ole Miss)

I think we NEED Michigan to lose and one of Bama or OU to lose today. Those are the only hard requirements. The path gets easier with a Vandy/Miami loss but they are in no way required and we SHOULD already be ahead of them. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

I may be oversimplifying this but I think all Texas needs is for lsu to upset OU and we are in, as long as the expected win occurs (OSU over Michigan). Texas will jump Miami, Utah, and Vanderbilt after beating a@m and that will make Texas one of five sec teams in (Georgia, bama, A&M, ole Miss)

Miami is in if they win. We'd have needed to be higher than 16 to make that big of a jump. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Why does Pitt beating Miami matter? ACC is only getting 1 in regardless.

We have to pass Miami and them losing is insurance in case the committee doesn't do the right thing.

Posted
Just now, Sir Ulrich said:

Miami is in if they win. We'd have needed to be higher than 16 to make that big of a jump. 

Hard disagree that Miami is in. You have to win the ACC to make it. That's their only path. Trash team losing two games in a trash conference. They have 1 marquee win. We have 3. 

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Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Hard disagree that Miami is in. You have to win the ACC to make it. That's their only path. Trash team losing two games in a trash conference. They have 1 marquee win. We have 3. 

Seriously. The ACC should be a 1 bid league. 4th out of 4 P4 conferences. When you’re behind the Big 12, that’s how bad you are

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Posted
29 minutes ago, tokamak said:

This is a good point on Michigan that I haven’t seen discussed before. If they lose but hang tough today they’ll still be in the beauty contest, which we absolutely don’t need. Committee might be tempted to balance out the numbers of SEC and B1G teams. 

 

25 minutes ago, Steelers Roll Left said:

Regarding BYU, Let’s look at what the committee did last year: SMU entered the ACC Championship game w/ only 1 loss (out of conference to BYU).  SMU lost ACC Championship to Clemson for 2nd loss.  Committee still put 2-loss ACC runner-up in over 3-loss Bama.  A 1-loss BYU losing playing in Big XII title game and taking a 2nd loss to Texas Tech could still be a problem if committee stays consistent

These two motivations plus encouraging strong OCC are going to work against each other. Let’s hope for mayhem and make the decision harder.

last night Texas finally played a complete game, there was only 7 mins where A&M had the momentum. 

Texas is giving the committee a headache. I think Texas is probably out absent some real mayhem but at least the conversation has to be had now.

If you want conference parity in the number of bids then the playoffs need to be 16 because there are 6-7 legit SEC teams that have a claim to be in the 12 team field.

Posted
Just now, scramblyn said:

 

These two motivations plus encouraging strong OCC are going to work against each other. Let’s hope for mayhem and make the decision harder.

last night Texas finally played a complete game, there was only 7 mins where A&M had the momentum. 

Texas is giving the committee a headache. I think Texas is probably out absent some real mayhem but at least the conversation has to be had now.

If you want conference parity in the number of bids then the playoffs need to be 16 because there are 6-7 legit SEC teams that have a claim to be in the 12 team field.

16 And no byes

Eliminate CCGs and let the conference declare their winner via tiebreakers, but in reality, who cares if there’s no byes 

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Posted
8 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Miami is irrelevant. We will pass them. OR they will win the ACC and get the auto bid. Michigan needs to lose, I agree. We also will jump Utah. Our biggest obstacles are Vandy (likely to lose and I think we go ahead of them anyways given the head to head and SOS differences), BYU (scam team in a scam conference, we should be in front of them unless they win the Big 12 against Tech), Bama, and OU. We need OU or Bama to lose and we will be in. 

We have just as much of chance of playing for an ACC title as Miami right now.

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Posted
48 minutes ago, tokamak said:

This is a good point on Michigan that I haven’t seen discussed before. If they lose but hang tough today they’ll still be in the beauty contest, which we absolutely don’t need. Committee might be tempted to balance out the numbers of SEC and B1G teams. 

A team losing their final regular season game isnt MOVING UP the rankings. Stop. Just need Michigan to lose. 

Just now, HtownHorn said:

We have just as much of chance of playing for an ACC title as Miami right now.

Then Miami is cooked and wont make the playoffs unless they beat Pitt by 100. 

Posted
38 minutes ago, Drew said:

Exactly. So stuck on “durr but Florida!” And forgetting the true reason. 

Different year and bama did NOT have our resume.  They lost to a bad OU team late late in the year and they only had one Top 10 win.  
 

they lost to a 8 win vandy too as well as OU and the. Tennessee who was top 10.

Texas has 2 losses to the #1 team and #4 team.  And wins over #3, 18, 14 and vandy was top 10 when they played.  
 

everyone is saying “bama last year” without looking at the resumes. 

8 not 18.

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Posted (edited)

You also have to consider the Manning factor. The Manning family is gonna be pushing hard behind the scenes (along with Sark and big money donors). Think about the ratings Texas would bring. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
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Posted

I bet Sankey is loving this because he can use our situation to push for changes to the playoff system. We're not making the playoff without chaos and he'll be fine with that not happening. 

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Posted

Feels like everyone declaring “Texas is out” is just asking for the universe to reverse uno those hot takes and put us in

Just saying. Like declaring Arch a bust after game 4 or whatever, the CFB gods have a way of getting the last laugh 

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

We aren't going to be 12 seed, G5 and acc will be.  It's 10 seed or nothing (unless a lot of crazy shit happens and we get 9).

I understand how it works, and I also know we aren’t getting in.   I’m just saying that would be the matchup ratings TV would like for Aggies.  Guess I should have said drop Aggie to 7 and slide us in at 10 to make the scenario realistic.   Way too much has to happen for us to get in even though at this point in time we are a top 12 team

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Posted

Texas really needs to lean in to the "We're more deserving than ND" narrative.  Fuck just rolling over to the BS ND bias.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Kwix said:

Texas really needs to lean in to the "We're more deserving than ND" narrative.  Fuck just rolling over to the BS ND bias.

If Mack wasn’t such a bitch, we’d have that fucker gladhanding every CFP committee member and blowing every media talking head for the next week+

When Mack is at his best, he’d have half the committee contemplating giving us a home game 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
1 minute ago, Kwix said:

Texas really needs to lean in to the "We're more deserving than ND" narrative.  Fuck just rolling over to the BS ND bias.

Yeah, you're not wrong but pick the battles you think you can actually win.

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Posted
1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

Jesus Christ, let me slow it down for some of y'all.

Any team in the SEC can lose two conference games and get in.  It doesn't matter which two conference games.  That's exactly what we did.

Our third loss is against the #1 team in the country, on the road, in a game we did not have to schedule.

If we don't get in over teams like BYU and Utah, who played nobody, and who absolutely nobody thinks would beat us on a neutral field right now, then everyone will stop scheduling big OOC games immediately.  Because if we'd played Rice instead of Ohio State, we're in and it's not even close.

I’m not gonna argue against the case you make for Texas being in.

It’s the anti-Big12 bias that erks me.

You could make the exact same statement above while including Oregon, Miami, Notre Dame - heck, even aggy (BYU only has 1 loss)

but you don’t - you only focus in Big12

Posted
5 minutes ago, Kwix said:

Texas really needs to lean in to the "We're more deserving than ND" narrative.  Fuck just rolling over to the BS ND bias.

They wont drop ND to put in a 6th SEC team. To get Texas in, we need OU or Bama to lose so we can take their spot. If they both lose, we will be automatically in. Sankey would lose his mind if only 3 SEC teams were gonna get in. 

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Posted
Just now, BluTechsan said:

I’m not gonna argue against the case you make for Texas being in.

It’s the anti-Big12 bias that erks me.

You could make the exact same statement above while including Oregon, Miami, Notre Dame - heck, even aggy (BYU only has 1 loss)

but you don’t - you only focus in Big12

Dont play in a Mickey Mouse conference and we will take you seriously. Texas played 5 top 10 teams this year. How many did BYU play? The answer is one. And they got fucking dogwalked. 

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Posted
22 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Hard disagree that Miami is in. You have to win the ACC to make it. That's their only path. Trash team losing two games in a trash conference. They have 1 marquee win. We have 3. 

I'm not disagreeing with any of that. But the committee disagrees with you and that's all that matters. Otherwise we'd be ranked at 13 or higher this week. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Kwix said:

Texas really needs to lean in to the "We're more deserving than ND" narrative.  Fuck just rolling over to the BS ND bias.

THIS

this is the way

the problem is they are a sacred cow, pun intended

NO ONE has ever overtly attacked their celebration of special-ness

and they finally put up results last year

rather than sark or cdc do it - snakey needs to take the lead on this

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