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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

House on the line and you have to make the playoffs do you want to play Texas or do you want to play Texas St?  I understand you hate us, but be honest. Programs like Ohio St, Texas, ND, Georgia, expect to win every game.  Yours?  Not so much

That’s literally my point. The conversation is that bluebloods will stop scheduling other bluebloods. I disagree because each side expects to win. Also I don’t hate UT, I’ve been on surly/shaggy for almost than a decade because this place is cool af. You’re my second favorite team every 2nd Saturday in October.

Edited by 'stache
Posted
Just now, Huckleberry said:

ND 10, BYU 11, us at 12 would be fantastic because a BYU loss would force the committee to analyze us and ND directly against each other. 

But with no new data points, how could you justify switching us? 

Unless the new data point is that Texas lost to the BIG and SEC champions on the road and we need OSU and UGA to win to strengthen our losses?

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Posted
9 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

One question how many here want Texas to make the play-offs because they think Texas has a great chance of winning it all or do you want they to make the play-offs just to piss off aggy and the rest of the country or do you want them to make the play offs because the players earned it.

Full disclosure I want them to make because players beat three top 15 teams and earned it since Sark screwed them with his game plan at Florida. Second aggy tears would be great for Christmas. Winning it all would only happen if somehow this team became disciplined and consistent which they have not done all year.

I think the experience & additional practice will benefit us next year.

Posted
1 minute ago, Drew said:

That's what I've been thinking this whole time...it gives them so much fucking cover too.  if Bama wins we're out(fair, they have 2 losses or so the committee will say).  If BYU wins and Bama loses we're both probably out in that case.

So we expect the committee and TV networks to take into account that the SEC may start cancelling big name OOC games if we get left out or that the SEC might drop the Conference Championship Game if Bama gets left out? Kind of a pick your poison situation. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

What's weird to me is that Bama's numbers and our numbers are the inverse of one another. 

Bama to make the CFP?

-950 for yes

+590 for no

Texas to make the CFP?

+590 for yes

-950 for no

Is there some notion that we will get in if Bama loses to UGA?

No because our odds would be way lower in that case. The relationship would only indicate a solid belief that there will be 5 but not 6 SEC teams. 

If it weren't just a coincidence which I believe it probably is. 

Edited by Huckleberry
Posted
Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Do people really think there is inside info moving the lines? Or is it just that bettors are degenerates and see all the Texas talk throughout media and are taking a stab on long odds? 

It was a rapid movement, not a gradual movement. It was drip, drip, drip, then a massive flip of Miami and Texas odds. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

I think a lot of men fall into the bad habit of infantilizing women and calling it chivalry (or courtesy, if you don't like the connotations). I don't agree with the people ripping on @Nicole44, but it's par for the course on this board. She's more than capable of sticking up for herself. 

Thank you! 😊 

giphy.gif

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Posted
1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

ND 10, BYU 11, us at 12 would be fantastic because a BYU loss would force the committee to analyze us and ND directly against each other. 

Exactly.  or even ND at 9 and Bama still at 10 works.

BYU wins and they're in, Bama wins and they're in...no way they can have us jump ND in that scenario, however they could drop Bama behind us after a loss and let us get in at 10.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Do people really think there is inside info moving the lines? Or is it just that bettors are degenerates and see all the Texas talk throughout media and are taking a stab on long odds? 

The problem with this being a committee and a TV production is that things will obviously leak out to Vegas well before it comes out.  Too much money involved for people not to leak it to Vegas for a payday somehow.

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Posted

We're going to spend all this energy and time debating this shit after a Saturday where nothing went our way only to have Duke upset Virginia and this is all pointless when two G5 get in. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

Again. Reread my post. It's not ONE person calling her that or one post. It's ad nauseam. I don't know how you don't see it. Maybe you don't visit enough threads. 

Maybe she’s the problem. Derka gets the same treatment. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Drew said:

Exactly.  or even ND at 9 and Bama still at 10 works.

BYU wins and they're in, Bama wins and they're in...no way they can have us jump ND in that scenario, however they could drop Bama behind us after a loss and let us get in at 10.

That would literally light cfb on fire if that scenario happened.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

We're going to spend all this energy and time debating this shit after a Saturday where nothing went our way only to have Duke upset Virginia and this is all pointless when two G5 get in. 

Duke has 0 impact on us. BYU is the only game that impacts a spot directly. UGA/Bama and OSU/Indiana also effect us for SOS purposes. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
Posted
11 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

So a lot of rapid movement on the books happened and we have now stabilized at 

Texas +590

Miami +820

ND -400

Bama -950

So I think this indicates, unless there is more movement, that Texas will be sitting in the 12 spot tonight. with ND @10 and Bama @9. 

 

Edit: Vandy started the day at +1500 (now +7000 lol), Texas was at +2500 

 

BYU is at +390

Posted
4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Do people really think there is inside info moving the lines? Or is it just that bettors are degenerates and see all the Texas talk throughout media and are taking a stab on long odds? 

Well find out if Texas is at least 12.  That'll be clear indicator that what happens next Saturday will affect.

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

But with no new data points, how could you justify switching us? 

Unless the new data point is that Texas lost to the BIG and SEC champions on the road and we need OSU and UGA to win to strengthen our losses?

There would be...Bama would have a loss that equals our number and we'd have a better resume overall. 

3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

So we expect the committee and TV networks to take into account that the SEC may start cancelling big name OOC games if we get left out or that the SEC might drop the Conference Championship Game if Bama gets left out? Kind of a pick your poison situation. 

Exactly...either way this system is blown up next year for more teams getting in to avoid losing the SEC Title game, or to keep tough OOC games OR to go to a play in model where the Big conferences have mini play ins to keep it at 12 or less.

Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

We're going to spend all this energy and time debating this shit after a Saturday where nothing went our way only to have Duke upset Virginia and this is all pointless when two G5 get in. 

That doesn't matter at all. There will be 2 conference champions who make it in ranked lower than Texas either way. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

We're going to spend all this energy and time debating this shit after a Saturday where nothing went our way only to have Duke upset Virginia and this is all pointless when two G5 get in. 

Well that won't matter 11/12 are already earmarked for the ACC/G5 or 2 G5 teams anyways.

2 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

That would literally light cfb on fire if that scenario happened.

Fire This Is Fine GIF

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Posted
Just now, Hank_Hill said:

Maybe she’s the problem. Derka gets the same treatment. 

Lol. That's not even close in comparison. Derka has been on his shit since I hopped boards in 2008. That same unhinged bullshit for 17 years. 

Posted
Just now, Thatguy said:

Lol. That's not even close in comparison. Derka has been on his shit since I hopped boards in 2008. That same unhinged bullshit for 17 years. 

Only been 17? Feels like 40

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Posted
10 minutes ago, BigHornedLurker said:

christ on a cracker this shit is moving faster than the sark after dark shit show a few weeks ago 

Haha, every time I click on this bitch there’s like 50 new posts.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Drew said:

so +590 is good then?  We want to get it to "minus" number to have good odds of getting in?

 

Here is how to read it. And I caution you at using betting odds as a proxy for probability when it comes to something like the CFP committee decision. Remember: they want to balance books. 
 

A (-) implies favorite. A common very slight favorite is -110. You must bet 110 dollars to win 100. Your total payout would be 210: Your original 110 back plus 100.

A slight dog would be +110. You bet 100 to win 110. Your payout is 210: Original 100 plus 110. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Drew said:

so +590 is good then?  We want to get it to "minus" number to have good odds of getting in?

 

It implies around 15%, but it's the movement that is intriguing.  We started the day under 5%.

Edited by JBJ
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Posted
14 minutes ago, chad.ihrig said:


Nah

I scrolled past the first time you did it. Some of you are completely insufferable. Life is not politics, and I come here for UT football, not mouthbreathing political bullshit. 

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

I think a lot of men fall into the bad habit of infantilizing women and calling it chivalry (or courtesy, if you don't like the connotations). I don't agree with the people ripping on @Nicole44, but it's par for the course on this board. She's more than capable of sticking up for herself. 

I want you to think about it. We've consistently run every woman off the football board dating back to shaggy. Look around. 

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Posted
Just now, Tex Pete said:

I scrolled past the first time you did it. Some of you are completely insufferable. Life is not politics, and I come here for UT football, not mouthbreathing political bullshit. 

Blame our leaders for talking about college football for some reason

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Posted

If we come in at 12. The final boss is going to be convincing this committee to drop either ND or Bama behind us on a week where we dont play. Best things that can happen for us to make this occur would be for Indiana to lose and UGA to win big. Then our losses are road losses to the SEC and BIG champion and Bama simultaneously gets their resume weakened. That gives us the best argument over Bama or ND. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Thatguy said:

I want you to think about it. We've consistently run every woman off the football board dating back to shaggy. Look around. 

I think this says more about the higher intelligence of women than anything

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Posted
24 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

 

No man, people are over the top when it comes to her. It's one thing to clown someone for posting the same take. It's another when it devolves into weird personal attacks. One comment calling someone stupid or dumb is one thing. It's gone way past that. There are better ways to come after someone. She may be beating a dead horse but she isn't stupid or dumb as what she is saying is valid. None of us would take all the name calling. We would be looking for whoever that poster is at the next tailgate. 

I mean I've never met her, but based on her pics I can't imagine a shoulder check from her would hurt too badly.  

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Posted
Just now, Hank_Hill said:

I think this says more about the higher intelligence of women than anything

You might be fucking right. My wife usually peeks over my shoulder, shakes her head, then walks off. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

Blame our leaders for talking about college football for some reason

I don’t give a fuck. I won’t listen to them talk about it either. 

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If we come in at 12. The final boss is going to be convincing this committee to drop either ND or Bama behind us on a week where we dont play. Best things that can happen for us to make this occur would be for Indiana to lose and UGA to win big. Then our losses are road losses to the SEC and BIG champion and Bama simultaneously gets their resume weakened. That gives us the best argument over Bama or ND. 

Plus bama does NOT have a better resume than Texas without the win imo.  It’ll be easy to move them back. 
 

if we’re behind ND we won’t jump them.  
 

but I bet they’re hoping Bama wins and BYU loses. Easiest cleanest path for the committee. The top 10 is solid right now. 

Edited by Drew
Posted (edited)

The odds still aren't in our favor and won't be until the polls release at best. But the trajectory is stunning. +1500 to +420 is a massive swing for Vegas, especially when we're talking about over the course of an afternoon. That's mega money on Texas.

Edited by dieucla98
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Posted
1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If we come in at 12. The final boss is going to be convincing this committee to drop either ND or Bama behind us on a week where we dont play. Best things that can happen for us to make this occur would be for Indiana to lose and UGA to win big. Then our losses are road losses to the SEC and BIG champion and Bama simultaneously gets their resume weakened. That gives us the best argument over Bama or ND. 

Slotted above Miami tonight, Tech wins, OSU wins, UGA wins big + Simpson gets hurt and backup ineffective invoking FSU precedent.  That's probably the only path.   I just can't see this committee that has been in love with ND somehow moving them out.

Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

I mean I've never met her, but based on her pics I can't imagine a shoulder check from her would hurt too badly.  

Yeah. She is pretty tiny. But she carries these. That's how people end up in Town Lake. 

 

garter-belt-dagger-adjustable-848791.jpg

Edited by Thatguy
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Posted
Just now, Skipper said:

Slotted above Miami tonight, Tech wins, OSU wins, UGA wins big + Simpson gets hurt and backup ineffective invoking FSU precedent.  That's probably the only path.   I just can't see this committee that has been in love with ND somehow moving them out.

I think we just need UGA to win big. Simpson is ass regardless. But him getting injured wouldnt hurt. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

If we come in at 12. The final boss is going to be convincing this committee to drop either ND or Bama behind us on a week where we dont play. Best things that can happen for us to make this occur would be for Indiana to lose and UGA to win big. Then our losses are road losses to the SEC and BIG champion and Bama simultaneously gets their resume weakened. That gives us the best argument over Bama or ND. 

Maybe we can root for off the field player arrests

Stephen Colbert Good Luck GIF

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Posted
38 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Boise/OU, Utah/Bama, NIU/ND…I mean this happens all the time and it’s great when it does.

It is harder in the transfer/NIL era, and enforced G5 apartheid makes it worse. The transfer rule is another parity and excitement killing development. 

These are single game upsets from back in the day. I don’t think David could pull that off against a pack of Goliaths for 3 weeks in a row during the playoffs. Wet dream.

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Posted

We only have to wait 40 more minutes ish. It gives me just enough time to track all the IP addresses I need to send some of you some special candy grams. 😂 

as far as running people off the board it’s been going on for years. Those who don’t go to surly tailgates or events can fuck their faces. I’ve seen their takes in the CR and DT and let’s face it neither the country nor the world needs their takes on anything. They don’t know shit from Crisco. 
 

Anyone I have met y’all are all cool with me whether you like me or not. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

I want you to think about it. We've consistently run every woman off the football board dating back to shaggy. Look around. 

Maybe it's also because you guys are some creepy fucks. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, El Squared said:

These are single game upsets from back in the day. I don’t think David could pull that off against a pack of Goliaths for 3 weeks in a row during the playoffs. Wet dream.

I agree, and at the same time a 16 seed will never win March Madness or likely even get to a FF. But we really like the fun of giving them a shot and no one wíll argue their presence makes that tourney worse. We go nuts when they win just one. 

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