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Posted
21 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It’s an R+11 district. If it ends up being R+4 tonight that’s a bit of a Dem over perform relative to Virginia last month, where I don’t think they took anything higher than R+5

It’s an R +22 district in 2020, 2022, and 2024.

 

fun fact! The first person to hold that seat when it was established was future president of the Republic of Texas, Sam Houston

Posted
10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s an R +22 district in 2020, 2022, and 2024.

 

fun fact! The first person to hold that seat when it was established was future president of the Republic of Texas, Sam Houston

I count from 50. Green won 59-38 in 22 and 24, so I over counted (working from memory) but that’s an R+9 district. From your math it looks gonna about a 9 point win as oppossed to a 22-ish point win in the last two election cycles.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

I count from 50

Gotcha. Anyway it’s a huge overperformance, esp compared to the 2022 midterm, and Behn doesn’t appear to be a great candidate. I don’t trust Democrats to recruit good ones or Democrat primary voters to nominate them, but I’ve got to think the Republican house candidates are going to start distancing themselves from the president, which will create it’s own set of problems. 

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