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"Easy" Money Come Election Day (Prediction Market Gambling)


Anastasis

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Damn, I'm almost back to even money after being down $500 no more than two hours ago. There's heavy money coming in on Biden positions. Best I can tell my AZ (Kelly and Biden), MI, Nevada, and the NO Pompeo bet hereby known as the Chewy bet are rising fast.

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Told y'all mofos it was going to crash tonight. 

They aren't going anywhere with your money.  Their model is based on taking generous cuts from the winners and withdrawals. 

But you can have no expectation of being able to move transactions with the election night swings.  I am riding Biden wins Texas into the mountain I guess. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Still can't get shit to load.  Only position I wanted to have a sell order in was Texas, but even if I ride it into the ground it hedges out my bet with JimmyJames. 

So it looks like I lost but I can't tell yet. Numbers aren't done but not looking good. I'll wait until its called to comment further. Any insight?

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2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

So it looks like I lost but I can't tell yet. Numbers aren't done but not looking good. I'll wait until its called to comment further. Any insight?

I think that you lose the bet and I lost my hedge position and the end result is that I ask you to make your end right by sending money to a mutually agreed charity organization. 

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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I think that you lose the bet and I lost my hedge position and the end result is that I ask you to make your end right by sending money to a mutually agreed charity organization. 

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

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Just now, JimmyJames said:

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

The root cause appears to be that Biden didn't engage hispanics in Texas. I didn't anticipate that result, thus hedging out our bet. If it goes my way the charity I would propose is mobile loaves and fishes. https://mlf.org/ But if you have any discomfort with that, will be open to your alternative suggestions. 

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Just now, Anastasis said:

The root cause appears to be that Biden didn't engage hispanics in Texas. I didn't anticipate that result, thus hedging out our bet. If it goes my way the charity I would propose is mobile loaves and fishes. https://mlf.org/ But if you have any discomfort with that, will be open to your alternative suggestions. 

That charity is fine. If I won I was going to suggest St. Louise house.

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Everyone is flipping out because Trump definitely had a good first half. Biden looks to be taking AZ and might surprise everyone with IA.  Not sure IA will matter much but if it goes Biden, it should eliminate the horror story of a 269-269 tie.  Looks like it will come down to who can win 2 of the 3 midwest states. 

I don't think either side should necessary feel overly confident at this moment. Trump is leading those states but there are many votes to count. 

The betting markets seemed to have stabilized somewhat. close to a coin toss now.

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6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

My PI account is scuttled if Trump wins. 

Hindenburg_disaster.jpg

I'm still hoping for a couple of my Barry Bonds swing bets to hit. Ohio Trump between 2.5-3.5 is in play

What are your losers? I thought you mostly had middling positions?

Edited by BradInATX
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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm still hoping for a couple of my Barry Bonds swing bets to hit. Ohio Trump between 2.5-3.5 is in play

What are your losers? I thought you mostly had middling positions?

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

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7 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

He's not going to win.

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Everything was bigly red last I was able to see the dashboard. Dem to win POTUS, GOP to lose POTUS, Trump popular vote was even red, Penn was red, AZ green, Dem house green, Trump loses state won in 2016 green. Didn't grab a screen cap, but I am down bigly on my max out positions if Trump wins. 

I took the biggest % loss on Biden winning Texas that I stupidly dropped some money on this afternoon. Luckily I was far from maxing out the bet. whew. 

My biggest overall bet was Biden margin of popular vote margin. I'm relatively confident that will rebound somewhat.  As of typing this, Biden has 1.3% lead but CA is only half reported.  Not to mention that Philly, Detroit and Atlanta are still outstanding, I believe. I think Biden still pops 5% win but I would be happier if he could get to 6.

I'm sweating out max bets with WI and Biden winning overall.

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Anyone see an obstacle to my Georgia being the state with the closest MOV, or the Georgia MOV 0-1 (#Bothsides) bet hitting? Has to be the closest race, right? Those are both huge hits for me if they come in.

Edited by BradInATX
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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Isnt NC the closest at the moment? Throw some money on NC as a hedge?

I have NC too. I took NC, FL, and GA in the closest MOV. 

GA is the only one I took the 0-1 margin of victory on both sides. Every time I modeled things out, Georgia was incredibly stable between about a half point D and a half point R win.

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2 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

If I lose I assure you I will pay. I pay my bets. I'm just wondering if you have any insight into why at this point. Has Fort Bend been counted? It may not matter but just looking for info.

Looks like Texas is done. A screen cap of your donation receipt will suffice.  

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12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I have NC too. I took NC, FL, and GA in the closest MOV. 

GA is the only one I took the 0-1 margin of victory on both sides. Every time I modeled things out, Georgia was incredibly stable between about a half point D and a half point R win.

Never bet fl. 

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4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Hit AZ and popular vote and dem house and trump lose any state he won in 2016.  Gonna ride or die with PA, Biden POTUS, Dem POTUS. 

Congrats on making the decision to keep your potus bets. I was saying pound the table for going all in on Biden when he was +300/400 depending upon the book. My bet is a lot of people weren’t as steady as you were last night. 

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