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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

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The thing that concerns me most about Putin (other than the immediate obvious), is that somehow out what will be a disaster of a loss is that somehow he will manage to solidify his hold on power.  I realize this sounds crazy, but I think it's possible for a number of reasons.  I have a bit of a historical truth as it relates:

Anatoly Tarasov was considered the father of Soviet hockey.  The Russians didn't really play the sport prior to it becoming of nationalistic importance, rather they played a sport called bandy, which was and is really only played by three or four countries.  It's sort of like winter field hockey, I don't have a great understanding of it.  Anyway, when the Soviet's petitioned for it to become an Olympic sport, they were turned away because so few countries did play it.  Anyway, Tarasov was tasked with forming a national team that could compete on the international stage.  Initially, he asked to see film footage of Canadian hockey so he could see their methodology.  This was rejected, for a number of reasons, but essentially he was told that he would need to craft a Russian way of doing things (which would naturally be better than anyone else's methods).  So with that in mind, with a rule book, he set out to build a team from scratch.  He developed an entirely different way to play the game.  At the time, Canadians, and most of the rest of the world played a physical dump and chase style of game with little artistry (along the lines of smash mouth football, 3 yards and a cloud of dust type stuff).  Isolated from the rest of the world, the Soviets built a style of play that in many ways was the precursor to the modern day NHL game you see today (kind of a run and shoot version of hockey).  From the 50s to the mid 70s the Soviets  became the dominant force in the international game under his guidance.  Around the mid 70s, after Tarasov retired, a new guy took over, his name was Viktor Tikhonov.  Tikhonov essentially militarized Tarasov's concepts as the national team coach and had good success.  However, he ran into a little thing called the Miracle on Ice.  After the loss, it was wildly speculated in the west that Tikhonov would find his way to the gulag never to be heard from again.  This is not what happened.  Tikhonov managed to convince the top brass including Brezehnev himself that the problem had been the hold overs from Tarasov's players and that the reason the national team really needed him was because they needed to root out the problems of the old regime.  He successfully forced out all the older players and maintained an iron fist over the national team until the breakup of the Soviet Union.  

As it relates to the current situation, and the older woman saying to kill everything Ukrainian, I fear that Putin will manage to convince his population, even after this disaster which can entirely laid at his feet, that this is why they need him.  The strong man of Russia, able to stand up to their enemy, the United States and to a lesser extent NATO (for which they only see as a puppet).  I think we all get caught up in the wishful thought, and wild speculation a loss here would equal Putin's certain demise (I have certainly been guilty of this myself).  However, I think we ought to consider at least that it's possible that this somehow only manages to solidify his power, in much the same way Viktor Tikhonov managed to do after his great loss.    

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2 hours ago, statsman said:

My hope is that when Putin dies, the remaining powerful oligarchs will say, “What do we need to do to get my yacht back, my kid enrolled at Cornell and me back in London at the gaming tables? Get out of Ukraine? Da, you bet!”

Assuming that whoever replaces Putin allows the oligarchs to do their things.  Either we'll get somebody worse than Putin, who will use the oligarchs as scapegoats (our military sucked because these guys ripped us off) or it'll be some idealists who want the oligarchs gone, and the oligarchs may try and fight back somehow.  But if they fight each other, great, just as long as it doesn't turn into some kind of James Bond/Tom Clancy stuff where nukes start disappearing.

 

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3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

The thing that concerns me most about Putin (other than the immediate obvious), is that somehow out what will be a disaster of a loss is that somehow he will manage to solidify his hold on power.  I realize this sounds crazy, but I think it's possible for a number of reasons.  I have a bit of a historical truth as it relates:

Anatoly Tarasov was considered the father of Soviet hockey.  The Russians didn't really play the sport prior to it becoming of nationalistic importance, rather they played a sport called bandy, which was and is really only played by three or four countries.  It's sort of like winter field hockey, I don't have a great understanding of it.  Anyway, when the Soviet's petitioned for it to become an Olympic sport, they were turned away because so few countries did play it.  Anyway, Tarasov was tasked with forming a national team that could compete on the international stage.  Initially, he asked to see film footage of Canadian hockey so he could see their methodology.  This was rejected, for a number of reasons, but essentially he was told that he would need to craft a Russian way of doing things (which would naturally be better than anyone else's methods).  So with that in mind, with a rule book, he set out to build a team from scratch.  He developed an entirely different way to play the game.  At the time, Canadians, and most of the rest of the world played a physical dump and chase style of game with little artistry (along the lines of smash mouth football, 3 yards and a cloud of dust type stuff).  Isolated from the rest of the world, the Soviets built a style of play that in many ways was the precursor to the modern day NHL game you see today (kind of a run and shoot version of hockey).  From the 50s to the mid 70s the Soviets  became the dominant force in the international game under his guidance.  Around the mid 70s, after Tarasov retired, a new guy took over, his name was Viktor Tikhonov.  Tikhonov essentially militarized Tarasov's concepts as the national team coach and had good success.  However, he ran into a little thing called the Miracle on Ice.  After the loss, it was wildly speculated in the west that Tikhonov would find his way to the gulag never to be heard from again.  This is not what happened.  Tikhonov managed to convince the top brass including Brezehnev himself that the problem had been the hold overs from Tarasov's players and that the reason the national team really needed him was because they needed to root out the problems of the old regime.  He successfully forced out all the older players and maintained an iron fist over the national team until the breakup of the Soviet Union.  

As it relates to the current situation, and the older woman saying to kill everything Ukrainian, I fear that Putin will manage to convince his population, even after this disaster which can entirely laid at his feet, that this is why they need him.  The strong man of Russia, able to stand up to their enemy, the United States and to a lesser extent NATO (for which they only see as a puppet).  I think we all get caught up in the wishful thought, and wild speculation a loss here would equal Putin's certain demise (I have certainly been guilty of this myself).  However, I think we ought to consider at least that it's possible that this somehow only manages to solidify his power, in much the same way Viktor Tikhonov managed to do after his great loss.    

 

I've never believed that a loss in Ukraine automatically means Putin is divested of power. 

What I do believe is that Putin will die someday, in some way. I do not believe we'll ever know for sure if Stalin died from some kind of poison, or it was natural causes which caused the hemorrhage of his brain. I do know that no one called for medical help until long after it could do some good. However Putin dies, I'm not going to care if it's from natural causes or not. 

I also don't know how much changes in Russia after Putin is gone. Probably not much, really. Maybe the next leader is even more ruthless. Stalin was certainly more ruthless than Lenin, and Lenin wasn't exactly a shrinking violet. Plenty of authoritarian regimes have pursued dictatorial rule over several transitions of power. I don't see Russia changing its character much outside of being conquered and a long occupation, and I don't foresee that happening in my lifetime. Or my children's lifetime. 

But this war is flat out dumb. If you're a leader who wants to restore the Soviet borders, invading Ukraine has set that dream back decades, if not longer. Russia needs to step back, regroup, try to emulate China under Deng, or Japan under the Meiji Restoration, or Germany under Hitler. Modernize their industrial base. Modernize their military. Somehow value competence over kleptocracy. But their fatalism runs really really deep in that society. There's such a collective "Fuck it. That's Russia. We'll always suffer," rather than a roll up your sleeves and make it better mentality there. I don't believe that gets changed. It's not that Russians aren't smart. Or hard working. But there's a cultural flaw there. The same cultural flaw that makes them bullies. Whatever this flaw is, it also makes them resilient, whether you're talking about Mongol hordes, Swedes invading, French invading, Germans invading, fighting Muslims from the Ottoman Empire, you name it. 

The big problem Russia has right now is that it doesn't actually value doing your job well. It values bullies. People who are gifted at taking advantage of others. People who are gifted at eliminating rivals. People who are gifted at surviving brutal daily get voted off the island type games over the course of their lifetime. Maybe the next leader changes that. But I don't actually believe that. But I do believe the next leader could withdraw from Ukraine, if only to lick their wounds and get ready for their next phase, whatever that looks like. I'm all for that.

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12 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

The 60 year old Soviet IFVs with improvised turrets posted back to back with Strykers rolling off the boat is quite the study in contrasts.

Well, I know if given the choice which of the two I would want to get into to.  

In so far as the Germans wanting to build a tank factory in Ukraine, I take that as a good sign that the Germans are coming around to reality.  They can either be partners with the Ukrainians or competitors.  Cooperation will benefit both in the long term, perhaps we are seeing seeing the end of German protectionism with them moving towards actually taking a partner leadership role within the EU (probably wishful thinking, but hey, it's something).  

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8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Cooperation will benefit both in the long term, perhaps we are seeing seeing the end of German protectionism with them moving towards actually taking a partner leadership role within the EU (probably wishful thinking, but hey, it's something).  

Germany can step up, or they can sit on the sidelines and watch Poland and Ukraine step up and take leadership roles.  

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4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

7:1 is quite a bit different than the 1.5:1 posted upthread. 

7:1 is still enough to remove a lot of Russia. battalions/companies out of service for the foreseeable future, which is not good when the Ukrainians go on the counteroffensive again.  

They will just have to merge the devastated units into hybrid units that have no unit cohesion, and the Russian army is already lacking in the institutional knowledge that is taken for granted in the West.  

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19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting thread on Russia's tank production. Short version, they are not building new, but upgrading equipment from storage. Guess we will see T-62 turrets in orbit soon. 

 

You'd presume they'll at least put some ERA or something on them before they go to the front.

image.png.a1bae230cbdca97f3f10e0d7211fca9d.png

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

It is a very good documentary. Worth the time to see the war from this perspective. 

And yes, that is an amazing picture. 

The more I study it, the more I find to appreciate about it. 

330777729_6339142619442634_21075042260168106_n.jpg?_nc_cat=103&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=gCunywXzLyEAX9YWUHq&_nc_ht=scontent.flex2-1.fna&oh=00_AfCLSZz4b48ZP719T7T871bHqcchd04jbgS1eDPegtavNA&oe=640892DA 

Edited by KYHorn
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5 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

Gotta plug those leaks and prevent the sensitive ICs from getting to Russia.  The guilty states are the usual suspects and it's honestly not that difficult to figure out exactly who is doing it.  I've worked extremely closely with our export controls departments both at my current gig, and my former gig at AMD, and they always know what's happening.

Having the balls to do something about it, is the problem here.

 

Edited by utee94
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8 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

I can't wait for them to roll out the horse mounted cavalry

Maybe the most reliable form of transportation, and if the horse slips on ice or sticks its leg in a hole and breaks it, it doubles as a meal that feels 8-10 Russians!

1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

The Bushmaster is quite a fucking weapon. Didn't know they mount it on everything from the Bradley to ships and helicopters

https://weaponsystems.net/system/524-25mm+Bushmaster

Yeah, they fucked up a bunch of Iraqi stuff in the first Gulf War, and even in cases where they may not be able to engage a more modern tank (not that they want to get into such a situation), they can absolutely wreck the treads as well as the sensors/scopes on the turret.  No matter how good your tank is, if somebody tears your treads/sprockets apart, you become target practice for whatever Javelin/TOW/etc. gunner is nearby.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Maybe the most reliable form of transportation, and if the horse slips on ice or sticks its leg in a hole and breaks it, it doubles as a meal that feels 8-10 Russians!

Yeah, they fucked up a bunch of Iraqi stuff in the first Gulf War, and even in cases where they may not be able to engage a more modern tank (not that they want to get into such a situation), they can absolutely wreck the treads as well as the sensors/scopes on the turret.  No matter how good your tank is, if somebody tears your treads/sprockets apart, you become target practice for whatever Javelin/TOW/etc. gunner is nearby.

Was talking to a retired Bradley dude last night. The capacity to hit so accurately is what he focused on. Also not a maintenance bitch like other systems. 

He loved them and said if he was not old and fat he would love to go and use one again to take out some Russian crap. Talked about how they ate through Iraqi systems, the same ones the Russians are still deploying and probably with worst training than the Iraqi. 

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13 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

I know we've shit on the Germans for being so reluctant to support Ukraine, but they're really stepping up in major ways across the board. And not just with their own stuff. They've been pressuring others to step up their game, too. It doesn't erase the fact there's a large contingent of them who would love to go back to doing business in Russia, but as an American, before I get worked up about their speck, I should pay more attention to my log. 

100 Marders is significantly more than 40. 50 Leopard 2 tanks is significantly more than 18 (and those 18 are supposed to be A46s). They've been putting all kinds of pressure on the Swiss to find work arounds for their commitment to neutrality. They've even put pressure on the Poles to send more Leopard 2s. 

You have the UK doubling their Challenger II contingent. The Strykers are on their way. Hopefully the 50 CV90s get there from the Swedes. Haven't heard much about their status, and they're supposed to be awesome. Ukraine doesn't get a whole lot of chances to do this counter attack right. But if they can make a big push it could dramatically change the narrative of the war, just like it did when they made their Kharkiv push, and then later took Kherson. It can't be imminent anyway, with all the mud. I'm hopeful. I want to hear about more armor heading in that direction, and more ammunition/shells. 

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