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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Yep, but it also allows the UA to better arm and equip as well.  Not sure what type of "re-invasion" material Russia would even have at this point?  Tank factories shutting down, capital stopped flowing, currency in the toilet.  Where do they source all their stuff now?  The Russian defense industrial base was stagnant BEFORE the invasion.  Their only real advantage was material that they seemingly are unable to replace?

So you are saying open a tractor sales team in Ukraine? Got ya.

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3 hours ago, TexasEd said:

 

 

 

 

This final countdown language is supposed to scare us.

Those guys have the stuff they are saying cleared with their superiors/Putin's people/etc.

This sounds more like the justification for large call-ups of the reserves and/or more conscripts, because Putin needs that.

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16 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Likely scenario:

Russia will force Ukraine to give up more than it wants, and even if they don't they'll pretend that Ukraine did tell them they can have all that territory. They'll consolidate their gains, not pull out, and work behind the scenes to undermine Ukraine's government. They'll bring their propaganda shows back and pipe them into Ukraine, and bide their time while re-arming. They'll pressure the West into ending Russia's sanctions, which they'll do, and then Russia will once again come out on top and live to do this again in a few years.

That's my educated guess.

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22 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

A squared away American Combined Arms unit wouldn’t need to flank a light infantry unit with anti-tank weaponry. Our thermal imagery would have seen them coming miles away in the open farmland of Ukraine. It would be a turkey shoot. Either Russia has the most undisciplined untrained troops in the world or Russia has been lying about their technology for decades. 
 

Drones are another issue. Those things are terrifying. Without air support all ground militaries are mostly sitting ducks to air attack assets. That’s why America invest so heavily in the military. It’s expensive stuff gaining air superiority the way our doctrine calls for.
 

I asked my Lockheed engineer buddy why equipment is so incredibly expensive. It's all the design, mock up, and redesigning parts that fuck up during testing. He said it is not uncommon for a new generation of fighter jet to have close to a half million redesigns. I asked him, "so if one component has been redesigned 5000 times and the design still isn't working, what happens next?" He said, "well, you start working on redesign 5001." It's all trial and error, and still needs to meet government requirements.

CHIEF

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45 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Agreed. You also cannot trust Russia to keep its word. If you negotiate with them now and then agree to stand alone (neutrality) then you're just giving them the time it needs to re-invade you.

 

44 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Of course.  Just curious if they even bothered to write it down and/or define it?

I just assumed the reason they had vague/undefined and unmeasurable things like "denazification" was so that once the "demilitarization" part of the agreement is done Russia could unilaterally declare Ukraine as non-compliant with the undefined stuff and re-invade with Ukraine's military largely out of the way.

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1 minute ago, CHIEF said:

I asked my Lockheed engineer buddy why equipment is so incredibly expensive. It's all the design, mock up, and redesigning parts that fuck up during testing. He said it is not uncommon for a new generation of fighter jet to have close to a half million redesigns. I asked him, "so if one component has been redesigned 5000 times and the design still isn't working, what happens next?" He said, "well, you start working on redesign 5001." It's all trial and error, and still needs to meet government requirements.

CHIEF

This is a great point about the sudden non-existent Russian R&D the lack of capital is going to see grind to a halt.  They can't support existing production.  New material....lol, good luck with that.  They aren't designing or upgrading crap for some time now.  

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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This is a great point about the sudden non-existent Russian R&D the lack of capital is going to see grind to a halt.  They can't support existing production.  New material....lol, good luck with that.  They aren't designing or upgrading crap for some time now.  

....which is why wrecking even more of it, and depleting the shit out of Russia's military, is in Ukraine's interest.  Every tank they blow up today is one they won't have to face in 5-10 years, and it's not likely to be replaced.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

....which is why wrecking even more of it, and depleting the shit out of Russia's military, is in Ukraine's interest.  Every tank they blow up today is one they won't have to face in 5-10 years, and it's not likely to be replaced.

The longer the war goes on, the larger the Ukraine military gets.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

....which is why wrecking even more of it, and depleting the shit out of Russia's military, is in Ukraine's interest.  Every tank they blow up today is one they won't have to face in 5-10 years, and it's not likely to be replaced.

Easy to say.  Harder to reconcile with the loss of life they experiencing.  Horrible spot to be in.  

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16 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

This is a great point about the sudden non-existent Russian R&D the lack of capital is going to see grind to a halt.  They can't support existing production.  New material....lol, good luck with that.  They aren't designing or upgrading crap for some time now.  

well they still have plenty of these and some old JS-1's I am sure. 

image.png.9206f35e8d94ac7f0200e60a1fb60834.png

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13 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Easy to say.  Harder to reconcile with the loss of life they experiencing.  Horrible spot to be in.  

Indeed, shitty spot to be in.

But Ukraine has been forced to expend a lot of blood and treasure, and vital infrastructure.  Now, they're committed.  If it was me, it would be hard to convince me not to fight until total victory -- if it takes 6 months, a year, 10 years, I want to fight, with whatever I have, to push the invaders all the way back across their border.  And frankly, my willingness to do so is one of the best bargaining chips I have.

"Hey Russia.....you'll just keep bleeding, dying, and losing, bit by bit, until I get tired of killing you.  And because you invaded my country, destroyed my cities, and raped my people, I will never, ever, ever get tired of killing you.  So, you want a deal?  These are my terms....."

Bargain from a position of strength.  And when you have even the slightest advantage, even if there are costs, press that advantage farther than anyone thinks you can.  That's how you win.

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another thing happening that we arent talking about is Ukraine cant sustain fighting the war economically for more that a few months.   They have effectively lost half their taxable territory along with another 50% of their total infrastructure being destroyed. 

 

even if their army is 99% volunteers at this time, at some point, they have to start paying their army, plus they need the civilians that joined up to eventually leave and go back to their normal jobs where they can make money and Ukraine can collect some taxes from them.

 

They are going to need Billions of Dollars in aid to rebuild....  thats not going to be easy to do, let alone finding someone who wants to be some sort of entrepreneur.

plus who the fuck wants to spend $100M to build a new mega apartment building that is 50 Km from the Russian border when they may just invade again in 5 years?

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2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think by conceding on NATO, they're wasting their entire efforts. Even if they concede Crimea or Donbas, fine, but don't concede NATO. Once they get NATO, then it's game over. 

Do they have a standing invite or a clear path to get in?

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1 hour ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

 

Drones are another issue. Those things are terrifying. Without air support all ground militaries are mostly sitting ducks to air attack assets. That’s why America invest so heavily in the military. It’s expensive stuff gaining air superiority the way our doctrine calls for.
 

What kinda anti drone tech do we have, jammer and such?  How vulnerable are our ground forces?

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2 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

another thing happening that we arent talking about is Ukraine cant sustain fighting the war economically for more that a few months.   They have effectively lost half their taxable territory along with another 50% of their total infrastructure being destroyed. 

 

even if their army is 99% volunteers at this time, at some point, they have to start paying their army, plus they need the civilians that joined up to eventually leave and go back to their normal jobs where they can make money and Ukraine can collect some taxes from them.

 

They are going to need Billions of Dollars in aid to rebuild....  thats not going to be easy to do, let alone finding someone who wants to be some sort of entrepreneur.

plus who the fuck wants to spend $100M to build a new mega apartment building that is 50 Km from the Russian border when they may just invade again in 5 years?

This.  Easy to armchair them on to keep fighting, but the cost is tremendous and not sustainable without massive western support. 

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4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

The engineer that hires all of the other engineers, at the Ft. Worth Lockheed, was at my crawfish boil this weekend. He gave the hard sell to CHIEF Jr. (again) this weekend and told him to pick out his classmates that have true mechanical aptitude, and can turn wrenches to come apply. F-35 and F-16 orders are going through the roof. This has scared  the hell out of Europe, Japan, Turkey, and the Baltics. He said Lockheed is about to be building "balls to the wall". If any of you have a kid that is about to graduate with an engineering degree, feel free to DM me. It's a great job, with great benefits.

CHIEF

My buddy was over this weekend as wellnd he works on the wiring harness in the cockpit for Lockheed out there. He said work is crazy busy and lots of open positions all over the place out there

 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

I think their military has earned it. Would also allow for NATO forces to go forward and serve as observers like they did in Bosnia under IFOR and SFOR. 

Military?  They can fight, but can they contribute?

Their path before was never clear, so now?  France and Germany blocked prior.  Germany is on the Russian O&G tit, not sure about France, but article 5 responses to a country we KNOW Russia will flip a switch over if admitted may not be in the cards for them.  Guessing their political and legal mess is still broken, as they ranked well below any current NATO countries on the international corruption index before the invasion?  You'd also have to get the dozens of NATO countries to agree, which seems a tall order?

 

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6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Maybe.  But.....how many are we going to need anytime soon?  The opponent we're most likely to need to use them against -- Russia -- is having its vehicle stocks pre-depleted, with little ability to replenish them.

Man, wish I'd bought some Lockheed stock last year.

Might want Switchblades maker stock instead.

 
 
 
 
 
 
cmnZjZFf_normal.jpg
 
 
And when DoD saw the breadth of its domain it wept, for there were no more Russian tanks to destroy.
Quote Tweet
 
 
 
 
 
 
EuSuuTqD_mini.jpg
 
Jack Detsch
 
@JackDetsch
· 2h
NEW: The Pentagon plans to buy fewer Javelin anti-tank weapons than two years ago, despite giving more than 4,600 of the missiles to Ukraine's military to fight Russia. DoD plans to buy 586 Javelins in the upcoming year, down from 866 buys of the tank-busting weapon in FY2021.
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4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Military?  They can fight, but can they contribute?

Their path before was never clear, so now?  France and Germany blocked prior.  Germany is on the Russian O&G tit, not sure about France, but article 5 responses to a country we KNOW Russia will flip a switch over if admitted may not be in the cards for them.  Guessing their political and legal mess is still broken, as they ranked well below any current NATO countries on the international corruption index before the invasion?  You'd also have to get the dozens of NATO countries to agree, which seems a tall order?

 

The French power systems are 70+% nuclear, with most of the rest Hydro and renewable.  The Nat. Gas thing isn’t a big deal for them.  I’m sure they don’t love high auto gas prices, but relatively speaking, their economy is probably better positioned than virtually any other Western Nation for the current crisis.

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17 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

another thing happening that we arent talking about is Ukraine cant sustain fighting the war economically for more that a few months.   They have effectively lost half their taxable territory along with another 50% of their total infrastructure being destroyed. 

 

even if their army is 99% volunteers at this time, at some point, they have to start paying their army, plus they need the civilians that joined up to eventually leave and go back to their normal jobs where they can make money and Ukraine can collect some taxes from them.

 

They are going to need Billions of Dollars in aid to rebuild....  thats not going to be easy to do, let alone finding someone who wants to be some sort of entrepreneur.

plus who the fuck wants to spend $100M to build a new mega apartment building that is 50 Km from the Russian border when they may just invade again in 5 years?

Counterpoint......in some respects, Russia has already taken everything from them.  The dead will not come back to life.  The ruined cities will not be rehabilitated in our lifetime -- you are right that investing in Ukraine is not likely while Russia has it in its crosshairs.  Russia has wrecked Ukraine for a generation, probably two.

Take everything from me, and I have little reason to bargain, to back down, or ever stop fighting.  With sharpened fucking sticks if I have to.  I'll fight with a stick and eat the rations I steal from the invaders.  It's what they deserve.  And meting out that justice is all I have left.

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7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Military?  They can fight, but can they contribute?

Their path before was never clear, so now?  France and Germany blocked prior.  Germany is on the Russian O&G tit, not sure about France, but article 5 responses to a country we KNOW Russia will flip a switch over if admitted may not be in the cards for them.  Guessing their political and legal mess is still broken, as they ranked well below any current NATO countries on the international corruption index before the invasion?  You'd also have to get the dozens of NATO countries to agree, which seems a tall order?

 

Yes, they can be a road block. That is Polands role as well. 

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3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The French power systems are 70+% nuclear, with most of the rest Hydro and renewable.  The Nat. Gas thing isn’t a big deal for them.  I’m sure they don’t love high auto gas prices, but relatively speaking, their economy is probably better positioned than virtually any other Western Nation for the current crisis.

Why did they block before?  Was it just the destabilizing notion of admitting them?  

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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

This is good to see.  Give them NV capabilities as well and it's game on.  

 

It's good for every Ukrainian infantry to have an anti-tank weapon. It's priceless for Russian tankers to think that every Ukrainian infantryman has an anti-tank weapon. Can't hide in the woods or the village, they'll get you with an RPG. Can't feel safe out in a field because a Javelin will get you, or they'll crawl up a gully your own seemingly non-existent friendly infantry failed to notice, and get you with an RPG anyway.

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1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's good for every Ukrainian infantry to have an anti-tank weapon. It's priceless for Russian tankers to think that every Ukrainian infantryman has an anti-tank weapon. Can't hide in the woods or the village, they'll get you with an RPG. Can't feel safe out in a field because a Javelin will get you, or they'll crawl up a gully your own seemingly non-existent friendly infantry failed to notice, and get you with an RPG anyway.

Sleep well Ivan....

UC50Mn.gif

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Why did they block before?  Was it just the destabilizing notion of admitting them?  

part of it is moving our forces west. Reforger (US Exercise) showed we needed 7 days to reinforce Germany. Sure the game has changed now, but to think after the Russian debacle their military can just run over smaller nations is not the reality we are seeing. 

I am not saying they have to join, but I would like to be able to have 60,000 armed and NATO coordinating infantry sitting in the Ukraine than not have them. 

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

Why did they block before?  Was it just the destabilizing notion of admitting them?  

Without knowing more, I would assume it’s a combination of oligarch money sloshing around the system, Total being balls deep in Russian oil production, and stereotypical French moral relativism. 

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

part of it is moving our forces west. Reforger (US Exercise) showed we needed 7 days to reinforce Germany. Sure the game has changed now, but to think after the Russian debacle their military can just run over smaller nations is not the reality we are seeing. 

I am not saying they have to join, but I would like to be able to have 60,000 armed and NATO coordinating infantry sitting in the Ukraine than not have them. 

Out of rep, but this makes sense.  Thx

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1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

Out of rep, but this makes sense.  Thx

And look at some of the members and think what can they contribute. Albania? North Macedonia? OK, they put pressure on the Serbs, but outside of the Balkan theater I would not expect much. 

Don't worry about Rep! Just glad to be part of this thread. 

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6 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

I think too many people are downplaying what this really means from a warfare standpoint and are getting swept up in the heroic Ukrainian defense narrative vs the small group tech advantage can decimate armor and limited air support topic.

Armor, in the current Russian approach/viewpoint, is now pointless in any theater in which infantry can get within  1 or 2 km of the target. The risk/reward of UAV+Jav 2 man group  taking out a tank is way slanted towards 2 man team. The economic investment of in the production of one modern battle tank as well as the training and personnel required to service and operate it can be quickly nullified by dudes with limited specialized training due to technology.

So outside of true blitz style large rolling attacks with a combined integrated infantry screen and total air control that allows for pinpoint retaliatory attacks, how would Russian tanks provide value on the battlefield? Beyond being used as a fixed gun emplacement dug in to limit exposure, what is an efficient use of the current technology?

And if you're going to have a fixed gun emplacement, might as well go with self-propelled artillery that is still mobile, but unlike tanks, can be very effective while still being miles behind the forward units.

5 hours ago, Parliament said:

"The end of armored warfare" has been predicted since the first 50 BMG punched a hole in a German tank in 1919.  We have counters to Javelins and such.  Infantry support tactics, TROPHY and stuff we haven't seen yet.

We don't gotta melt our Abrams's just yet.

Among many lessons, the Russians have proven something that should concern us:  future enemies don't have to take out our Abrams or whatever we replace the Abrams with.  They just have to take out the APCs, fuel trucks, ammo trucks, etc. because there is no way in hell that we will be armoring all of those things to the level that would resist a Javelin.

And that's just talking about Javelin/Javelin-like weapons.  We haven't even touched on armed drones.  Which is ironic, given that we have decades worth of using drones or UAVs or whatever you want to refer to them as.  The Ukrainians have done some amazing stuff with off-the-shelf components (commercial drones and grenades normally wielded by anti-tank infantry).  Now fast-forward to the Chinese or India or whoever taking those ideas and scaling them up just a bit.

There is going to be a huge paradigm shift in the coming years.  And I hate the term "paradigm shift", but it's true.  We will have to be concerned with hard-to-spot drones flying into our rear areas and hitting vehicles, depots, troop congregations, etc.

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16 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Why did they block before?  Was it just the destabilizing notion of admitting them?  

They were influenced/bought off by the Russians, either economically (Gas Pipeline), indirectly (the Nazi and nuclear power propaganda), or directly with low cost loans to decision makers.

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2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And if you're going to have a fixed gun emplacement, might as well go with self-propelled artillery that is still mobile, but unlike tanks, can be very effective while still being miles behind the forward units.

 

I wonder what the ratio in the Russian forces for towed vs. SP Artillery. We have seen lots of towed stuff blown up by the UA. I was taught their doctrine was blow holes with artillery and let armor run through it. Does seem to have worked this time. 

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

And that's just talking about Javelin/Javelin-like weapons.  We haven't even touched on armed drones.  Which is ironic, given that we have decades worth of using drones or UAVs or whatever you want to refer to them as.  The Ukrainians have done some amazing stuff with off-the-shelf components (commercial drones and grenades normally wielded by anti-tank infantry).  Now fast-forward to the Chinese or India or whoever taking those ideas and scaling them up just a bit.

There is going to be a huge paradigm shift in the coming years.  And I hate the term "paradigm shift", but it's true.  We will have to be concerned with hard-to-spot drones flying into our rear areas and hitting vehicles, depots, troop congregations, etc.

I'm thinking that a new element to join every battlefield element (convoys, rear staging areas, etc.) will be some sort of close-in-weapon-system meant to detect and take out multiple small airborne targets -- like a scaled down Phalanx system:

 

j7_V4b.gif

 

I mean, it's either that or get me and all my dove hunting buddies out there with 10 gauges with a big-ass magazine.  And fair warning, some of us are mediocre shots.

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45 minutes ago, Parliament said:

What kinda anti drone tech do we have, jammer and such?  How vulnerable are our ground forces?

I’ve been out over a decade so I would only be speculating. The Army was pretty behind on this topic though when I was in. We had a Naval Officer assigned to my unit to just help us jam cell phones, radio signals, garage door openers, etc. The Navy and Air Force have been playing this game a long time though so I’m sure grunts have something at this point. Hopefully.

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Indeed, shitty spot to be in.

But Ukraine has been forced to expend a lot of blood and treasure, and vital infrastructure.  Now, they're committed.  If it was me, it would be hard to convince me not to fight until total victory -- if it takes 6 months, a year, 10 years, I want to fight, with whatever I have, to push the invaders all the way back across their border.  And frankly, my willingness to do so is one of the best bargaining chips I have.

"Hey Russia.....you'll just keep bleeding, dying, and losing, bit by bit, until I get tired of killing you.  And because you invaded my country, destroyed my cities, and raped my people, I will never, ever, ever get tired of killing you.  So, you want a deal?  These are my terms....."

Bargain from a position of strength.  And when you have even the slightest advantage, even if there are costs, press that advantage farther than anyone thinks you can.  That's how you win.

Russia is losing soldiers. Ukraine is losing children.

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5 minutes ago, Hook'Em0608 said:

I’ve been out over a decade so I would only be speculating. The Army was pretty behind on this topic though when I was in. We had a Naval Officer assigned to my unit to just help us jam cell phones, radio signals, garage door openers, etc. The Navy and Air Force have been playing this game a long time though so I’m sure grunts have something at this point. Hopefully.

Oh yeah....duh...signal jammers.  Probably a lot more effective than a phalanx in every convoy.  I'm an old fart, I still think in terms of kinetic shit.

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2 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Russia is losing soldiers. Ukraine is losing children.

Yep.  Thus my motivation to never stop killing Russians.

And yes, I am aware that I am speaking from a deep and dark internal place that may be uniquely my own.  And if Ukraine wants to have a Ukraine for its next generation.....then killing every Russian on their soil is the only way to guarantee that.  Russia decided to start an existential fight.  It should be fought as one.

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5 hours ago, CHIEF said:

The engineer that hires all of the other engineers, at the Ft. Worth Lockheed, was at my crawfish boil this weekend. He gave the hard sell to CHIEF Jr. (again) this weekend and told him to pick out his classmates that have true mechanical aptitude, and can turn wrenches to come apply. F-35 and F-16 orders are going through the roof. This has scared  the hell out of Europe, Japan, Turkey, and the Baltics. He said Lockheed is about to be building "balls to the wall". If any of you have a kid that is about to graduate with an engineering degree, feel free to DM me. It's a great job, with great benefits.

CHIEF

 

57 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

My buddy was over this weekend as wellnd he works on the wiring harness in the cockpit for Lockheed out there. He said work is crazy busy and lots of open positions all over the place out there

 

Good friend and neighbor (also a Longhorn) is a higher up at Lockheed Martin.  Interestingly, we were talking last week and he commented that they can only build what they have capacity to build (implying that they were already at capacity so he didn't expect their revenues to jump as a result of the hostilities).

But I would think they'll scale up based on increased demand.

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51 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint......in some respects, Russia has already taken everything from them.  The dead will not come back to life.  The ruined cities will not be rehabilitated in our lifetime -- you are right that investing in Ukraine is not likely while Russia has it in its crosshairs.  Russia has wrecked Ukraine for a generation, probably two.

Take everything from me, and I have little reason to bargain, to back down, or ever stop fighting.  With sharpened fucking sticks if I have to.  I'll fight with a stick and eat the rations I steal from the invaders.  It's what they deserve.  And meting out that justice is all I have left.

In a war with Russia, Kyiv isn't in a great spot. Lviv would be a better place as a capital. Things may change but as of now, Odessa, Lviv, and Kyiv are the cities which can be revitalized the fastest. Mariupol is obviously just rubble. There isn't any revitalizing to be had there.

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9 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

 

Good friend and neighbor (also a Longhorn) is a higher up at Lockheed Martin.  Interestingly, we were talking last week and he commented that they can only build what they have capacity to build (implying that they were already at capacity so he didn't expect their revenues to jump as a result of the hostilities).

But I would think they'll scale up based on increased demand.

My wife's dad use to work at Lockheed Martin in Sunnyvale, CA. What stuff do they have in Texas?

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