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26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

IMHO it might be sooner as Ukraine has been biding its time in that area.

 

I realize the logistics suck, but Kherson can wait, Mariupol is the much more strategic city of the 2.  It being there keeps Russia from being able to supply Crimea from the land.

 

If the Ukrainians cant get supplies to Mariupol, they have got to get reinforcements there. Those Azov's guys are probably down to their last reserves, having been surrounded for 70+ days. 

 

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5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Is there any hope of freeing Mariupol in the immediate future? I've been thinking for weeks it was a forgone conclusion it was going to fall eventually due to its location.

Doubtful. look at the map:

image.thumb.png.d86cb6bdd81045a49c4c618c27c0d034.png

They are literally right outside of Kherson and unlike Mariupol isn't completely leveled (yet - Russians probably try on their way out of Kherson). 

Mariupol is just in a bad spot and a long way from relief. Ukraine's goal is to retake EVERYTHING in red on this map - including the stuff occupied by Russia before 2/24. That's going to take a while. 

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Doubtful. look at the map:

image.thumb.png.d86cb6bdd81045a49c4c618c27c0d034.png

They are literally right outside of Kherson and unlike Mariupol isn't completely leveled (yet - Russians probably try on their way out of Kherson). 

Mariupol is just in a bad spot and a long way from relief. Ukraine's goal is to retake EVERYTHING in red on this map - including the stuff occupied by Russia before 2/24. That's going to take a while. 

I'm wondering about that blue spot of "reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare."  I haven't seen any reports like that in this thread.  Or at least, if they're here I've missed them.  That's a pretty big chunk of territory.  I hope it's true.  

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6 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I'm wondering about that blue spot of "reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare."  I haven't seen any reports like that in this thread.  Or at least, if they're here I've missed them.  That's a pretty big chunk of territory.  I hope it's true.  

There isn't a ton coming out of it, but that entire spot is the city of Melitopol. The last news was the mayor saying partisans were killing Russian soldiers:

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/mayor-claims-partisans-killed-more-than-100-russian-soldiers-in-occupied-melitopol.html

but there wasn't much "proof," but the Russians are taking it seriously. Either because there really is a partisan force, or because they see these same maps and assume there is one still:

https://tsn.ua/en/ato/in-ukrainian-city-of-melitopol-the-russian-invaders-are-robbing-local-residents-under-the-guise-of-searching-for-partisans-2058475.html

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10 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I'm wondering about that blue spot of "reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare."  I haven't seen any reports like that in this thread.  Or at least, if they're here I've missed them.  That's a pretty big chunk of territory.  I hope it's true.  

#MeToo.     Perhaps you could helo-drop a few hundred Ukrainian warriors into that area and begin a push eastward.  

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Are we so sure that's homegrown Ukrainian or something from a NATO member or Sweden?

I've worked with Ukrainian engineers before. There's no doubt in my mind they could do this with local talent. It's not super hard to do, just requires a bit of inventiveness -- which they were highly motivated to be.

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2 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I've worked with Ukrainian engineers before. There's no doubt in my mind they could do this with local talent. It's not super hard to do, just requires a bit of inventiveness -- which they were highly motivated to be.

Yep.  I have quite a few friends and peers in the tech business who have crews of Ukrainians working for them, from 2-3 person operations to dozens, and they have universal praise for how hard they work, and how clever/smart they are.  Add a layer of SERIOUS motivation.....and it's very believable.

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13 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

I'm wondering about that blue spot of "reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare."  I haven't seen any reports like that in this thread.  Or at least, if they're here I've missed them.  That's a pretty big chunk of territory.  I hope it's true.  

I think that is the area east of Melitopol.  Drive down to there and knockout the bridges over the river to Kherson and you've got a big pocket of trapped RU forces that you could leave trapped while going to work on Mariupol.

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8 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I've worked with Ukrainian engineers before. There's no doubt in my mind they could do this with local talent. It's not super hard to do, just requires a bit of inventiveness -- which they were highly motivated to be.

Everything I've read says UKR software engineers are in highly sought after around the world.  Plus they started doing those things back in 2014/2015 with the original RU invasion not now.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
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1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Great Twitter thread on Ukraine's artillery targeting software. It's much better than ours. But you know as close as we're working with UA, we're taking notes.

 

 

EDIT: it's the same thread @ShaggyBevo RIP linked to here: 

 

You guys are silly.  These "Ukranian" tech is the US war nerds playing what if stuff in real life using Ukrainians to shoot at Russians.  If you told me right now the Ukrainians are simply just moving artillery into place and we are shooting it for them remotely I wouldn't be surprised

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3 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You guys are silly.  These "Ukranian" tech is the US war nerds playing what if stuff in real life using Ukrainians to shoot at Russians.  If you told me right now the Ukrainians are simply just moving artillery into place and we are shooting it for them remotely I wouldn't be surprised

I think you're severely underestimating the Ukrainians.   Your post is bad, and you should feel bad.  

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5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You guys are silly.  These "Ukranian" tech is the US war nerds playing what if stuff in real life using Ukrainians to shoot at Russians.  If you told me right now the Ukrainians are simply just moving artillery into place and we are shooting it for them remotely I wouldn't be surprised

im-ok-with-that-thats-fine.gif

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43 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Doubtful. look at the map:

image.thumb.png.d86cb6bdd81045a49c4c618c27c0d034.png

They are literally right outside of Kherson and unlike Mariupol isn't completely leveled (yet - Russians probably try on their way out of Kherson). 

Mariupol is just in a bad spot and a long way from relief. Ukraine's goal is to retake EVERYTHING in red on this map - including the stuff occupied by Russia before 2/24. That's going to take a while. 

Looks like the quickest way to Mariupol would be from the east, assuming that that area of red is easier to take than the solid red Russian controlled portion. Would also split the forces completely in half, at least inside the Ukraine border. 

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12 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You guys are silly.  These "Ukranian" tech is the US war nerds playing what if stuff in real life using Ukrainians to shoot at Russians.  If you told me right now the Ukrainians are simply just moving artillery into place and we are shooting it for them remotely I wouldn't be surprised

Read a little more. They started doing this in 2015 with their 122mm artillery. 

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Link because of autoplay:

Territorial Defense Forces of Odesa Region prepares and trains Volunteers

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/umn3go/territorial_defense_forces_of_odesa_region/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

And that's great.

 To the northeast of Kharkov, we reached the border with the occupying country.

 Where exactly, I can't say. You'll soon find out.

 More and more lands are being returned, and the enemy has less and less strength to hold the temporarily occupied territories. Step by step, without haste, to the borders 1991

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2 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

Thread moves fast so SIAP.  Pretty funny

 

About 18 hours ago. So this is not me being a dick, this is me just offering some courteous advice. If you see the date on a tweet and it's over a day old, chances are it's been posted here for, oh, about a day. 

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34 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

You guys are silly.  These "Ukranian" tech is the US war nerds playing what if stuff in real life using Ukrainians to shoot at Russians.  If you told me right now the Ukrainians are simply just moving artillery into place and we are shooting it for them remotely I wouldn't be surprised

Seriously? I mean, you've had some really stupid takes before, but this level of ignorance and stupidity takes the cake, even from you.

At this point I'm going to need to see proof that you're not a paid Russian propagandist to believe otherwise. Because nobody is this stupid on purpose.

Well.

Almost nobody.

But still. I'm choosing that you're not actually this stupid and are really a Russian agent, because I just refuse to accept this level of idiocy in someone who's otherwise able to type compete sentences on a computer.

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47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yep.  I have quite a few friends and peers in the tech business who have crews of Ukrainians working for them, from 2-3 person operations to dozens, and they have universal praise for how hard they work, and how clever/smart they are.  Add a layer of SERIOUS motivation.....and it's very believable.

Also, the tech isn't really that difficult. (Speaking as someone who's written a distributed system or two, that is.)

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13 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

Roger, I think I'll hang up on this thread and just listen from here out.

Don't let Sydney scare you off of posting in here.  This thread moves really fast, though, so tweets don't typically have a very long shelf life before they're posted here.  

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4 hours ago, Macanudo said:

While that sounds good and all, killing Russian civilians, no matter how much they might be complicit in this whole thing, may not have the desired affect on Russian leadership.

True. Which is why the washers need to have permanent blue or yellow dye secretly added to their innards so Russians’ laundry will be sending them a message in a less lethal form. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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4 minutes ago, Mach 1 said:

Haha, actually he had every reason so to be a dick.  I'm 0 for 2 in this thread, I needed a little nudge to exit stage left before I strike out.

It’s okay dude.  Just post away.  It’s not like you are asking if everyone heard about what Ojomo said about the culture of the football program.  

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12 minutes ago, Bigbend1812 said:

It’s okay dude.  Just post away.  It’s not like you are asking if everyone heard about what Ojomo said about the culture of the football program.  

Ain't nobody got time for that.  Can someone please post what Jim Rome said about the aggies? 

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24 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Seriously? I mean, you've had some really stupid takes before, but this level of ignorance and stupidity takes the cake, even from you.

At this point I'm going to need to see proof that you're not a paid Russian propagandist to believe otherwise. Because nobody is this stupid on purpose.

Well.

Almost nobody.

But still. I'm choosing that you're not actually this stupid and are really a Russian agent, because I just refuse to accept this level of idiocy in someone who's otherwise able to type compete sentences on a computer.

Haha.  Yes yes.  The Ukranians the very same Ukrainians who have been trained by NATO forces for the past 10 years all of a sudden develop and implemented this savage ass counter battery program that their NATO instructors were too ignorant to adapt.  The same Ukrainians who who just got satellite link from Elon Musk and just had their guys trained up on using artillery from NATO forces has somehow did this fucking badass implementation where their artillery can not only kill Russians but can suck the soldiers dicks while doing it.  Yes the same Ukranians who have had to have artillery shipped in had so much free artillery to practice with so they were able to go and just shoot shell after she'll to perfect this badass system.   Yep.. my.take is bad.  

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5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Haha.  Yes yes.  The Ukranians the very same Ukrainians who have been trained by NATO forces for the past 10 years all of a sudden develop and implemented this savage ass counter battery program that their NATO instructors were too ignorant to adapt.  The same Ukrainians who who just got satellite link from Elon Musk and just had their guys trained up on using artillery from NATO forces has somehow did this fucking badass implementation where their artillery can not only kill Russians but can suck the soldiers dicks while doing it.  Yes the same Ukranians who have had to have artillery shipped in had so much free artillery to practice with so they were able to go and just shoot shell after she'll to perfect this badass system.   Yep.. my.take is bad.  

I guess you missed the part, repeatedly saying they were doing this in 2015. Before NATO/US instruction...which happened after Crimea when the Urkaine realized they were likely going to have to go to Russia at some point. 

It's weird that conflate things like "country with limited resources that needs outside weapons" and "they need Star Link because they didn't build their own Star Link and the Russians cut their internet infrastructure" with "These guys are clearly a bunch of stupid rubes so the US must be shadow running this entire war with unheard of technology to date." 

 

attempt-there-was-an-attempt.gif

Edited by SydneyCarton
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Just now, The Dog said:

 

Okay, practical question.  If the Russia troops just withdraw to the other side of the border to regroup, reform, and launch a counter-attack.....does Ukraine go ahead and physically cross the border (with land forces) to take them out/keep pushing them back?  There are both tactical and strategic implications to that decision, I'm curious as to what the thinking is on that point.

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Okay, practical question.  If the Russia troops just withdraw to the other side of the border to regroup, reform, and launch a counter-attack.....does Ukraine go ahead and physically cross the border (with land forces) to take them out/keep pushing them back?  There are both tactical and strategic implications to that decision, I'm curious as to what the thinking is on that point.

I'm not in the military nor do I have any military training whatsoever, but I think they should drive all the way to Moscow and take the city by storm.

 

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15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I guess you missed the part, repeatedly saying they were doing this in 2015. Before NATO/US instruction...which happened after Crimea when the Urkaine realized they were likely going to have to go to Russia at some point. 

It's weird that conflate things like "country with limited resources that needs outside weapons" and "they need Star Link because they didn't build their own Star Link and the Russians cut their internet infrastructure" with "These guys are clearly a bunch of stupid rubes so the US must be shadow running this entire war with unheard of technology to date." 

 

attempt-there-was-an-attempt.gif

I'm not saying they are stupid rubes.  They have been shown to be pretty damn capable.  Sometimes a little too capable like they have some sort of cheat code.  I'm all for it.  Kill all them fucking Russians.  I'm just saying it's a little too convenient.  Like oh, here's a little tidbit you didn't know.  The Ukranians have been practicing small unit tactics and battalion size formations and integrate seamlessly for years.  Then it's haha.  Here's another fun fact Ukraine for some reason has technological advanced drones.  Then now oh ha, you silly Westerners Ukraine has been toying with this autonomous counter battery system since you were in diapers.  It's like playing war with my nephew.  I say ha I shot you with my laser gun.  He says oh yeah.  I block it with my anti laser shield.  Like where the fuck did you get an anti laser shield at.  That's how it is when reading about the Ukrainians

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Okay, practical question.  If the Russia troops just withdraw to the other side of the border to regroup, reform, and launch a counter-attack.....does Ukraine go ahead and physically cross the border (with land forces) to take them out/keep pushing them back?  There are both tactical and strategic implications to that decision, I'm curious as to what the thinking is on that point.

I'm just a guy interested in this stuff who happens to follow some good Twitter feeds, but my understanding is that the Ukrainians aren't interested in putting boots on any Russian territory. 

They will, however, blow up anything Russia is using to attack Ukraine as they have in Belogrod. So blowing up rail lines in Russia and keeping the Russians at bay with artillery is certainly on the table from what I understand. 

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5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Okay, practical question.  If the Russia troops just withdraw to the other side of the border to regroup, reform, and launch a counter-attack.....does Ukraine go ahead and physically cross the border (with land forces) to take them out/keep pushing them back?  There are both tactical and strategic implications to that decision, I'm curious as to what the thinking is on that point.

I would guess it probably depends on how close it is to supply line factors, otherwise wouldn’t you want to keep pressing in the direction of ejecting more Russians from your country until you can threaten the supply lines of bigger areas 

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Just now, FartingMonk said:

I'm not saying they are stupid rubes.  They have been shown to be pretty damn capable.  Sometimes a little too capable like they have some sort of cheat code.  I'm all for it.  Kill all them fucking Russians.  I'm just saying it's a little too convenient.  Like oh, here's a little tidbit you didn't know.  The Ukranians have been practicing small unit tactics and battalion size formations and integrate seamlessly for years.  Then it's haha.  Here's another fun fact Ukraine for some reason has technological advanced drones.  Then now oh ha, you silly Westerners Ukraine has been toying with this autonomous counter battery system since you were in diapers.  It's like playing war with my nephew.  I say ha I shot you with my laser gun.  He says oh yeah.  I block it with my anti laser shield.  Like where the fuck did you get an anti laser shield at.  That's how it is when reading about the Ukrainians

They've been practicing small unit tactics and formations because that fits their resources and it was demonstrated the older ways didn't work against Russia last time in Crimea...so yeah.

They bought their "advanced" drones from Turkey. And now they have ones we've given them. It's not so much their shit is advanced as much as Russia's shit is already 20 years old and hasn't been replaced because Oligarch's steal defense funds. 

They battery system was explained. You know, people other than the US can make technology advances, especially when they have less resources and have to be creative. 

Nevermind, sorry everyone. I'll stop, back to the thread.

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