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28 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

The argument is not to stop sending arms, it's to ensure there are safeguards to track their delivery and dispersion.  That is a clear role of the State/Defense departments as we did in Afghanistan (prior to the withdrawal)

Agreed. The larger systems should be easy enough to track but smaller weapons, specifically MANPADS, are going to take some effort. I would go further and say it's not just US State/Defense Departments but includes all countries who have sent similar systems too. Throw in the who the fuck knows what Russia is going to do with any captured weapons beyond studying them. Russian delivered stingers/AT4s/etc. to other conflict zones is not a good look for the US regardless how they got there.

I absolutely don't think this should prevent any allied nations from fulfilling all Ukrainian requests they are capable of but we should have a plan to limit the chances of our weapons ending up in the wrong hands as well. 

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Just now, Fico said:

Agreed. The larger systems should be easy enough to track but smaller weapons, specifically MANPADS, are going to take some effort. I would go further and say it's not just US State/Defense Departments but includes all countries who have sent similar systems too. Throw in the who the fuck knows what Russia is going to do with any captured weapons beyond studying them. Russian delivered stingers/AT4s/etc. to other conflict zones is not a good look for the US regardless how they got there.

I absolutely don't think this should prevent any allied nations from fulfilling all Ukrainian requests they are capable of but we should have a plan to limit the chances of our weapons ending up in the wrong hands as well. 

Absolutely.  That needs to be -- and needed to be -- part of our consideration and planning from the beginning.

My thought was that we should already have straw buyers set up to pay top dollar for any systems that end up on the black market.  Yes, buy back our own stuff at a premium.  Better outcome than letting that stuff go to other third parties.  One of the inefficiencies of modern war.

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8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Absolutely.  That needs to be -- and needed to be -- part of our consideration and planning from the beginning.

My thought was that we should already have straw buyers set up to pay top dollar for any systems that end up on the black market.  Yes, buy back our own stuff at a premium.  Better outcome than letting that stuff go to other third parties.  One of the inefficiencies of modern war.

Haven't thought about that strategy but absolutely spot on. On a side note, I've been wondering what the Brits have been doing with all those Exocets they scooped up. 

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

Drinking Vodka, talking shit on Telegram, shooting up railroad lines, and trying to figure out how to remove the circuitry from washing machines. 

Or all turning off their radars with HARMs in da house. 

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2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

That's a fucking explosion. I assume that is an ammo cook-off and not a direct result of the strike. Either that or we sent some real big shit to Ukraine. 

Based on it being such dark black smoke, and a lot of it, I would assume that this is oil/gas that is burning.  So the airfields oil or fuel storage.

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We should absolutely try our best to guarantee weapons get tracked and used as intended. That said, any plan we demand of State or DOD has to account for;

1. Security: We try to keep this shit on the DL and that means as few as possible know or observe even the movement to SE Poland.

2. Resources:  Here is who we have in Ukraine— we have a small contingent at Embassy Kyiv (think in the tens of American citizens at any moment) and any Marine security there who are not in theatre or trained to track weapons.  And anyone who is there unofficially, all of whom have other jobs and who also by definition are low-profile. 
 

You’re stuck either living with some ambiguity or upping the footprint— which will be seen as an escalation and brings danger. Afghanistan, where we controlled the battlefield and had literally an army in theatre not to mention civilians out the wazoo is NOT a comparison. 

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3 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Airfield in Crimea struck. Ladies and gentlemen the longer range missiles arrival in theatre has just been announced.

Sevastopol naval base is now in range.

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

That's a fucking explosion. I assume that is an ammo cook-off and not a direct result of the strike. Either that or we sent some real big shit to Ukraine. 

Ukraine leveling up

 

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5 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Based on it being such dark black smoke, and a lot of it, I would assume that this is oil/gas that is burning.  So the airfields oil or fuel storage.

Hopefully burning all the oil/fuel inside the planes too. 

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4 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

The west is slow playing this and looking weakish, single overwhelming support sends a message to Russia/China, don’t start shit and there won’t be shit.

I don't necessarily agree with this - hell, there's a reason why Russian state media is talking about bringing in North Korean soldiers after they pretend Syria was going to make a major contribution.  Russia is the one looking weak.  And we dropped a shit-ton of sanctions on them, sanctions that are hurting them, and we know they are, otherwise Russian state media wouldn't be so angry at the West and trying to threaten us with nukes (which the official state media has done).

I used a video game analogy early, about Ukraine leveling up, and it's 100% true.  We simply could not have given them HIMARS back in early March, until we saw what they could do with the M777's, etc., and we could not just rush in our best, most expensive systems until we could see that Ukraine was doing good work with what they had and what we gave them early on.  More importantly, we needed to see that they are efficitely using and protecting the high-end stuff we give them, which they are with HIMARS.

 

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3 hours ago, utee94 said:

Roger Waters seems like he sucks.

Dave Gilmour, Nick Mason, and Rick Wright (RIP) could have told you this back in the late 70s.

I only went to a few Roger Waters concerts after he broke from PF, and one was with a friend and his teen son not too many years ago, and after the concert was over, we asked his son what he thought, and his response was "Roger Waters likes to use the f-word a lot."

Waters is a dick.  He became the things he railed against.

And don't discount the fact that Dave Gilmour has a Ukrainian daughter-in-law, has done a bunch of stuff for Ukraine, and even released a pro-Ukrainian song under the Pink Floyd moniker.  Waters does not like Gilmour/Floyd getting attention without him.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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1 hour ago, BabaYaga said:

When talks were held on allowing Russia to hold on to initial, modest gains this was scoffed at that in no way should Russia benefit from their actions at all.  Again, fine.  But there is the argument as well that the flow of weapons is prolonging the conflict and eschewing peace talks that many, many EU nations are trying to facilitate.  

The only thing that Russia will agree on is holding onto everything it has occupied in Ukraine, with the ability to take more in the future.

Putin has publicly said multiple times they aren't going to give up what they've occupied.  Putin believes Ukraine belongs to Russia and has written and talked about it at length.

When Putin tells you what his plans are, fucking listen to him.

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3 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Rogers grew up in post-war Britain and his father died in ww2 and grandfather in ww1. It’s not surprising that he’d be hard core anti-war. 

“I grew up in a Britain ravaged by war after all of Europe ignored the aggression and ambitions of an increasingly unstable autocrat. My dad died fighting him and his army as Britain hung on desperately for two years alone. That’s why I think it’s so important to just let the bad guy win this time.” 

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5 hours ago, statsman said:

 All that being said, yes, if Putin were to die, it could be possible to negotiate a peace that was acceptable. 

4 hours ago, statsman said:

-Ukraine’s idea of a win is different than ours. Would you propose continuing to support them after they reject a possible truce back to 2014 borders?

The only acceptable peace is Russia out of all of Ukraine, including Crimea.  Because anything less is just opening things up to Russia doing this again in the future, with lessons learned from 2022.

The EU and USA fucked up in 2014 by letting Russia take Crimea without much in the way of deterring them, which is why we are where we are in 2022.

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5 hours ago, statsman said:

Russia can, and will, get nastier. They can kill civilians. They can blow up nuclear power plants, poisoning the land for generations. They can use tactical nukes. NATO will not respond in kind. 

4 hours ago, statsman said:

-Tactical nukes, chemical and biological weapons…Russia can get a lot nastier than we are willing to match. The west needs to avoid the mistake of 1915, when all its leaders were looking at each other sheepishly, recognizing that they never would have made the decisions they did if they knew that’s where they would end up. 

Russia isn't going to use tactical nukes or chemical weapons for a couple of reasons

1. The time has passed.  He should have done it early on after getting pushed back from the Kyiv suburbs and losing Kharkiv (but that would cause more problems, see #2).  Using them now is a sign of weakness to his people, something he can't afford to do.  He has to present a strong image to his people to stay in power, and they have to believe that he knows what he is doing.  He and his proxies on Russian state TV have been proclaiming that things are going well in Ukraine in the 6th month of his 3-day war.  If he pops off some nukes from out of nowhere, the charade falls apart and Russian society as a whole goes "WHAT THE FUCK?" especially as he and his proxies have been claiming for years after 2014 that Ukraine is a part of Russia and Ukrainians are just confused Russians.  Nuking a bunch of confused Russian brothers and sisters who call themselves Ukrainians is not going to fly.

2. It's simply a line too far for the world.  There's a reason why we didn't use them in North Korea in the 1950s and why even India and Pakistan haven't resorted to nukes, even though they've had plenty of border clashes and continue to do so.  If Russia uses nukes in Europe against a country that it invaded, you will see China and India move to isolate Russia along with the West and its allies (Japan, much of non-Chinese Asia/Pacific, etc.).  China and India do not want to face the combined anger and sanctions of Europe, the US, Japan, Australia, etc., especially with the food crisis that is already ramping up.  Especially China, who is still coming out of problems caused by actual COVID lockdowns and the like.  The army that China has been building up for Taiwan or elsewhere would have to be turned against the Chinese people and tens of millions, even hundreds of millions will be in the streets because they are out-of-work and looking for food. 

A Russia that is completely economically isolated by the EU, China, India, and much of Asia in general, is a Russia that is completely finished, even before demographics break it.  It maybe able to feed itself, and keep the electricity on, but not for long as parts and machinery break down.

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32 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

“I grew up in a Britain ravaged by war after all of Europe ignored the aggression and ambitions of an increasingly unstable autocrat. My dad died fighting him and his army as Britain hung on desperately for two years alone. That’s why I think it’s so important to just let the bad guy win this time.” 

Pretty much. Sounds like he’s a peace at any cost person. Or at least at a much greater cost than most of us would bear.  

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4 hours ago, Bevo said:

Pink Floyd’s Waters backs Russia, calls Biden a ‘war criminal’ over Ukraine

by Judy Kurtz - 08/08/22 11:21 AM ET
 

Roger Waters is defending dubbing Joe Biden a “war criminal,” accusing the president of “fueling the fire in the Ukraine.”

“That is a huge crime,” the Pink Floyd co-founder said in an interview that aired Saturday on CNN’s “Smerconish.”

 

During his latest solo concert tour, the 78-year-old rocker includes an image of Biden in a montage of “war criminals,” with the message “Just getting started” over the 46th president’s face.

Speaking with host Michael Smerconish, Waters wondered aloud why the United States wouldn’t “encourage” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “to negotiate, obviating the need for this horrific, horrendous war that’s killing we don’t know how many Ukrainians and Russians.”

Biden has authorized more than $8 billion in security assistance for Ukraine over the course of 17 packages following Russia’s invasion, which began in February, according to White House national security spokesman John Kirby.

Smerconish pushed back on the remarks from Waters, leading to several heated exchanges between the two.

“But you’re blaming the party that got invaded, come on. You’ve got it reversed. [Russian President Vladimir Putin] is at fault,” Smerconish said at one point.

Russian troops invaded Ukraine in February after previously invading in 2014 and annexing the region of Crimea. Putin and Russian media have offered the false narrative to justify the invasion that it was necessary to denazify Ukraine’s leadership, despite the fact that Zelensky himself is Jewish.

 

Russia has since received international criticism for an indiscriminate bombing campaign that has hit civilian areas in Ukraine hard. Russian soldiers have also been accused of war crimes.

The United Nations General Assembly approved a resolution condemning the invasion and calling for Russia to remove its troops.

But Waters defended Russia in the contentious discussion with Smerconish.

 

“Any war, when did it start? What you need to do is look at the history and you can say it started on this day. You can say it started in 2008,” Waters said.

“This war is basically about the action and reaction of NATO pushing right up to the Russian border, which they promised they wouldn’t do when [former Soviet leader Mikhail] Gorbachev negotiated the withdraw of the USSR from the whole of Eastern Europe.”

NATO has taken on the Baltic states and other countries in Eastern Europe once dominated by the Soviet Union as members since the fall of Soviet rule. Ukraine had pressed for NATO membership, another spark in the conflict with Russia, though it was not actually close to becoming a NATO member at the time of the invasion.

 

Asked by Smerconish about the U.S.’s “role as liberators,” Waters harkened back to the Iraq War to exclaim, “You have no role as liberators! What are you talking about?”

Smerconish and Waters also tangled in a discussion about China, Taiwan and human rights.

After the CNN host described the Chinese as “encircling Taiwan,” Waters said, “They’re not encircling Taiwan — Taiwan is part of China.”

 

“That’s been absolutely accepted by the whole of the international community since 1948,” Waters continued. “And if you don’t know that, you’re not reading enough.”

Beijing claims sovereignty over Taiwan, but Taiwan has been governed separate from the mainland in the decades since the end of the Chinese Civil War. Beijing has been on a decades-long campaign to pressure other countries to not recognize Taiwan or risk being cut off from China economically.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) just made a controversial trip to Taiwan that angered Beijing and unsettled the Biden administration.

 

“You’re believing your side’s propaganda,” Waters told Smerconish about Taiwan and China.

When Smerconish said China was at the “top of the list” of human rights offenders, Waters replied, “The Chinese didn’t invade Iraq and kill a million people in 2003.”

England-born Waters has long been outspoken about his political views. He’s been a fierce critic of former President Trump, referring to him as a “tyrant” and a “mass murderer.”

*Looks at 2022 bingo card*

*Scrunches up face, looks around confused*

*Looks back at bingo card*

Did... Did anyone else have "Roger Waters supports fascist imperialism" on their card?

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2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Stop.  Its one article.  Newsweek and others ran the same basic premise - that the US from the start want to punish/bleed Russia by dragging this out.  Blinken a few months back dismissed outright calls for negotiations.  When talks were held on allowing Russia to hold on to initial, modest gains this was scoffed at that in no way should Russia benefit from their actions at all.  Again, fine.  But there is the argument as well that the flow of weapons is prolonging the conflict and eschewing peace talks that many, many EU nations are trying to facilitate.  

Seriously? Newsweek? You just made 956's point for him: You're unable to discern the quality of one source versus another. 

It's not enough to pay attention to the news; you also must pay attention to the source of the news.

 

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1 hour ago, ABSR said:

Based on it being such dark black smoke, and a lot of it, I would assume that this is oil/gas that is burning.  So the airfields oil or fuel storage.

There's some red in the smoke, too, which is a signature of nitrates burning.  I think that, unlike the Japanese at Pearl Harbor, Ukraine targeted both ammo and fuel storage.  Airplanes and helicopters without fuel and munitions are just fancy gate guards and scrap metal.

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6 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Seriously? Newsweek? You just made 956's point for him: You're unable to discern the quality of one source versus another. 

It's not enough to pay attention to the news; you also must pay attention to the source of the news.

 

He isn't even citing news. He is citing opinion pieces. There is no factual content backing up his statement. 

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33 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I want to chime in here to note that there are several posters on this thread that know shit about fuck and are clearly not the average bear when it comes to security and military affairs, or this conflict in particular. It’s a pretty cool asset on a football board and their posts stand out and are easy to spot. 

So... Not BabaYaga, then?

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Mothers Day Lol GIF by reactionseditor

https://www.facebook.com/MinistryofDefence.UA/posts/pfbid02rvUrrSwzeEkZ146wA2K2412n1AHPZSM4JucP3TEsmh4iudcWe3yKn1BZ9TN472Zkl

Quote

Regarding the fire on the territory of Saki airport in the area of Novofedorivka settlement in temporarily occupied Crimea Russia.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine cannot determine the cause of the accident, but reminds of fire safety rules and the ban of smoking in unsettled places.

Fire can be used by terrorist country in information war. We don't rule out that the invaders "accidentally" will find some characteristic " Chevron ", " business " or even " DNA ".

Please note that cotton clothes are very hygienic.

Keep calm and believe the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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