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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

Yeah from the telegram that tweet linked to earlier, it's looking right. There is still a lot of confusion around what happened. We all saw what looked like missiles striking simultaneously causing two explosions, but Ukraine came out today and said it was a "Special Forces Operation." Which means it wasn't long range, so what happened?

I imagine Ukrainians say lots of things so the Russians will be all goobered up trying to stop the next one.

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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

OK this is a third scenario. And funny as shit.

Maybe the UA SF used vodka, started some fires with the wind and just started a big fire. "Hey HQ Kyiv, you will never believe what we just did." 

 

I could see saboteurs starting a brush fire if the wind was right, then closing in using the smoke for cover.

In any case you know every single sentry was on their phone checking out porn.

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Something to keep an eye on. We have heard before about a false flag to pull in Belarus. Or maybe Ukraine said fuck you.
 

RU false flags are conducted on civilians not military assets.

I’m guessing it is more likely that the - Andrei, you’ve lost another air wing? meme will be trending equally with what airdefense doing soon.
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1 minute ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Now that the color satellite pix are out, the intel peeps are saying ATACMS are the only known weapon that could have done that.

I hate the human costs but the tactics are amazing.  Hey look over here while I hit this dam, whoops, you were looking the wrong direction and boom goes your airbase.  

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2 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:


RU false flags are conducted on civilians not military assets.

I’m guessing it is more likely that the - Andrei, you’ve lost another air wing? meme will be trending equally with what airdefense doing soon.

Read some of the accounts from Chechnya. There are reports of just the opposite. Russians hitting Russians. The rebels never had air power, yet Russian troops got bombed. Buddy spent his academic career at Cambridge studying that war. Insightful discussions drinking. 

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Read some of the accounts from Chechnya. There are reports of just the opposite. Russians hitting Russians. The rebels never had air power, yet Russian troops got bombed. 

An old sergeant told me that a hostile aircraft is one that is attacking you, and a friendly aircraft is one that is not. Doesn't matter where the pilot's from.

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I guess we’re approaching 6 months? The Russian assumption was that some combination of overwhelming Russian power, welcoming by Ukrainians, and instability of Ukrainian government and armed forces would allow them to take over in days, creating a fait accompli before the west had time to respond?

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian response is remarkable. Russia badly miscalculated just about everything. 

I have to admit that I am very much disheartened by the savagery of the Russian troops and leadership. They are willing to sacrifice their own indiscriminately, and even more ready to assault, torture and murder Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. And to despoil the land for generations. 

Plus, there are the nukes. The nukes are the reason the west is holding back full support. Because of the nukes, if Russia is successful with indiscriminate bombing and civilian slaughter, western armies will not send troops in support. Because of the nukes, the western support comes with strings attached. 

I find myself a little disturbed by my happiness in the reports of dead Russian soldiers, but it is balanced by my disgust of the Russian murderous cruelty to civilians and captured POWs. I have been downvoted here for prior expressions of desire for a truce, even one that surrenders territory to Russia. My motive is a wish for an end to the Ukrainian suffering, and a fear that Russia can and will get more barbaric, using their nuclear threat as a backstop against western retaliation. It seems to me, that unless Putin were to die, the likely outcomes are either a protracted vicious war of attrition (with Ukrainian civilians doing most of the attriting), or a brutal Russian victory. I don’t see NATO openly joining in as long as Russia doesn’t expand (NATO needs to make it clear that if Russia expands, we are coming in). 

I can see even a bad truce as superior to either outcome noted above. That said, I don’t get a vote. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting on, I support arming them as much as possible. I also support helping any Ukrainians that wish to relocate outside the country for the duration. I marvel at their willingness to endure as much as they have so far, and it’s not my place to tell them that it’s too much. 

Sanctions are good, but I don’t have delusions about them. As soon as Putin dies, a new leadership in Russia will state that Putin was driving everything, they (the new guys) are reasonable and let’s negotiate those sanctions away and do business. Of course, the western business leaders will want to do business. I hope some international body does an accounting of costs (property, injuries, lives) and makes reparations a requirement for sanction lifting. 

Ten years after the war, I expect us all to be working with Russians again. I’m sure they will tell us that we only heard one side of the story, that there is more to it. In our minds, we’ll be remembering the pregnant mother shot on the bridge, fleeing, the little girl with her legs blown off, but we’ll be silent, because it’s our job and what’s the point after all? (Somehow, the “Fawlty Towers” episode where they are exhorted to not mention the war to the German tourists won’t be as funny). They’ll say they were victims of Putin as much as anyone and we’ll probably nod along in agreement that that guy was an asshole. 

Thanks for bearing with me on this long post. I’m just trying to figure out how this ends (a Putin death seems like the simplest route to the least pain), and disheartened by the cost (more in lives and innocence than in dollars) of getting there. 

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2 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Why would have of the Russian's nuke capable TU-160 be stationed in Crimea?  They have a combat range of just over 4,000 mile.   From deep inside Russia they would be fully capable of hitting everyplace in Europe easily.

Big bomber with a shorter trip can carry a shitload more ordinance? Hubris? Idk but I'm all for putin losing his big shiny expensive toys

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2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Big bomber with a shorter trip can carry a shitload more ordinance? Hubris? Idk but I'm all for putin losing his big shiny expensive toys

I think people may be getting their swing wing SU-24s confused with T-160s. Correct me if I'm wrong, we've only seen TU-160s and TU-95s using ALCMs from way outside Ukraine mostly over the Caspian. 

But I would love to be wrong, especially as I think Russia just finished(?) modernizing them. 

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I haven’t seen good sources on the Tu-160 at Saki.  Their operating base is Engels near Saratov. And Saki is a naval aviation base, and Tu-160s are VVS. 

 

1 minute ago, Fico said:

I think people may be getting their swing wing SU-24s confused with T-160s. Correct me if I'm wrong, we've only seen TU-160s and TU-95s using ALCMs from way outside Ukraine mostly over the Caspian. 

But I would love to be wrong, especially as I think Russia just finished(?) modernizing them. 

Yall are talking about graphing calculators right? 

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46 minutes ago, statsman said:

I guess we’re approaching 6 months? The Russian assumption was that some combination of overwhelming Russian power, welcoming by Ukrainians, and instability of Ukrainian government and armed forces would allow them to take over in days, creating a fait accompli before the west had time to respond?

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian response is remarkable. Russia badly miscalculated just about everything. 

I have to admit that I am very much disheartened by the savagery of the Russian troops and leadership. They are willing to sacrifice their own indiscriminately, and even more ready to assault, torture and murder Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. And to despoil the land for generations. 

Plus, there are the nukes. The nukes are the reason the west is holding back full support. Because of the nukes, if Russia is successful with indiscriminate bombing and civilian slaughter, western armies will not send troops in support. Because of the nukes, the western support comes with strings attached. 

I find myself a little disturbed by my happiness in the reports of dead Russian soldiers, but it is balanced by my disgust of the Russian murderous cruelty to civilians and captured POWs. I have been downvoted here for prior expressions of desire for a truce, even one that surrenders territory to Russia. My motive is a wish for an end to the Ukrainian suffering, and a fear that Russia can and will get more barbaric, using their nuclear threat as a backstop against western retaliation. It seems to me, that unless Putin were to die, the likely outcomes are either a protracted vicious war of attrition (with Ukrainian civilians doing most of the attriting), or a brutal Russian victory. I don’t see NATO openly joining in as long as Russia doesn’t expand (NATO needs to make it clear that if Russia expands, we are coming in). 

I can see even a bad truce as superior to either outcome noted above. That said, I don’t get a vote. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting on, I support arming them as much as possible. I also support helping any Ukrainians that wish to relocate outside the country for the duration. I marvel at their willingness to endure as much as they have so far, and it’s not my place to tell them that it’s too much. 

Sanctions are good, but I don’t have delusions about them. As soon as Putin dies, a new leadership in Russia will state that Putin was driving everything, they (the new guys) are reasonable and let’s negotiate those sanctions away and do business. Of course, the western business leaders will want to do business. I hope some international body does an accounting of costs (property, injuries, lives) and makes reparations a requirement for sanction lifting. 

Ten years after the war, I expect us all to be working with Russians again. I’m sure they will tell us that we only heard one side of the story, that there is more to it. In our minds, we’ll be remembering the pregnant mother shot on the bridge, fleeing, the little girl with her legs blown off, but we’ll be silent, because it’s our job and what’s the point after all? (Somehow, the “Fawlty Towers” episode where they are exhorted to not mention the war to the German tourists won’t be as funny). They’ll say they were victims of Putin as much as anyone and we’ll probably nod along in agreement that that guy was an asshole. 

Thanks for bearing with me on this long post. I’m just trying to figure out how this ends (a Putin death seems like the simplest route to the least pain), and disheartened by the cost (more in lives and innocence than in dollars) of getting there. 

50 years from now it'll be clear that the current path is the path to least suffering. Not only do we avoid the Chamberlain situation, we are making it clear that for certain parts of the world -- basically, non Africa, non-Middle East, borders are borders.  No more imperialism in this way.

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57 minutes ago, statsman said:

I guess we’re approaching 6 months? The Russian assumption was that some combination of overwhelming Russian power, welcoming by Ukrainians, and instability of Ukrainian government and armed forces would allow them to take over in days, creating a fait accompli before the west had time to respond?

There is no doubt that the Ukrainian response is remarkable. Russia badly miscalculated just about everything. 

I have to admit that I am very much disheartened by the savagery of the Russian troops and leadership. They are willing to sacrifice their own indiscriminately, and even more ready to assault, torture and murder Ukrainian soldiers and civilians. And to despoil the land for generations. 

Plus, there are the nukes. The nukes are the reason the west is holding back full support. Because of the nukes, if Russia is successful with indiscriminate bombing and civilian slaughter, western armies will not send troops in support. Because of the nukes, the western support comes with strings attached. 

I find myself a little disturbed by my happiness in the reports of dead Russian soldiers, but it is balanced by my disgust of the Russian murderous cruelty to civilians and captured POWs. I have been downvoted here for prior expressions of desire for a truce, even one that surrenders territory to Russia. My motive is a wish for an end to the Ukrainian suffering, and a fear that Russia can and will get more barbaric, using their nuclear threat as a backstop against western retaliation. It seems to me, that unless Putin were to die, the likely outcomes are either a protracted vicious war of attrition (with Ukrainian civilians doing most of the attriting), or a brutal Russian victory. I don’t see NATO openly joining in as long as Russia doesn’t expand (NATO needs to make it clear that if Russia expands, we are coming in). 

I can see even a bad truce as superior to either outcome noted above. That said, I don’t get a vote. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting on, I support arming them as much as possible. I also support helping any Ukrainians that wish to relocate outside the country for the duration. I marvel at their willingness to endure as much as they have so far, and it’s not my place to tell them that it’s too much. 

Sanctions are good, but I don’t have delusions about them. As soon as Putin dies, a new leadership in Russia will state that Putin was driving everything, they (the new guys) are reasonable and let’s negotiate those sanctions away and do business. Of course, the western business leaders will want to do business. I hope some international body does an accounting of costs (property, injuries, lives) and makes reparations a requirement for sanction lifting. 

Ten years after the war, I expect us all to be working with Russians again. I’m sure they will tell us that we only heard one side of the story, that there is more to it. In our minds, we’ll be remembering the pregnant mother shot on the bridge, fleeing, the little girl with her legs blown off, but we’ll be silent, because it’s our job and what’s the point after all? (Somehow, the “Fawlty Towers” episode where they are exhorted to not mention the war to the German tourists won’t be as funny). They’ll say they were victims of Putin as much as anyone and we’ll probably nod along in agreement that that guy was an asshole. 

Thanks for bearing with me on this long post. I’m just trying to figure out how this ends (a Putin death seems like the simplest route to the least pain), and disheartened by the cost (more in lives and innocence than in dollars) of getting there. 

I find little to disagree with in terms of your thought process.  This whole thing sucks, and identifying the optimal route out of the war is super challenging.  Much could still go very wrong, and not just for the Ukrainian people.

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Every indication is that Ukrainians want to fight.  How patronizing is it to suggest that they are our puppets and just need us to stop helping them so they can come to their senses and sign a bad treaty? 

Which is not at all what I posted. 

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