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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Russian Ground Forces/Army itself is small - less than 300,000 troops. Since they aren't all in Ukraine, I wonder if he would try and replace some of the regular army troops at other outposts with mobilized forces and then send the regular troops to Ukraine.  But then those outposts are manned by extremely poorly-trained and led troops, which could be very, very bad if some of the republics heat up.

Hell, if Chechnya blew up right now, I doubt he could keep it.

Notice we are not hearing a lot about the the Chechen forces? They get pulled back to guard the gates? 

And yes, the boys who were in Syria are being pulled back. That is their Airborne. They are going to meet HIMMARS. 

2 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Wouldn't surprise me if most of these newly-mobilized end up staying inside Russia and pointing guns at other Russians.

Agree. And driving trucks and raising the price of vodka around every base. Pretty soon all of Russia will be one big Hay Street. 

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Stupid question - 

What if Putin thinks he can brush everyone back with some small nuclear attack.  Something in west Ukraine?

And then says “I’ve got more.”  I understand we all say “that’s unthinkable, that would be criminal, his generals wouldn’t follow his orders!”

Well, so far he has apparently blown past the fear of:

1.  International sanctions

2. Economic isolation

3.  UN unpopularity 

4.  The threat of war crime prosecution

5.  Political unpopularity

And, his generals are going along or having accidents.

Why is a small nuclear action so improbable?

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2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

the US brings cruise missiles into play, lots of them. 

Ok, so if Russia does that then the US / NATO instinctively responds by what?  Attacking Moscow?

Some outpost?

Cruise missiles blow up some government buildings?

Then what?

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10 minutes ago, CoTex said:

Stupid question - 

What if Putin thinks he can brush everyone back with some small nuclear attack.  Something in west Ukraine?

And then says “I’ve got more.”  I understand we all say “that’s unthinkable, that would be criminal, his generals wouldn’t follow his orders!”

Well, so far he has apparently blown past the fear of:

1.  International sanctions

2. Economic isolation

3.  UN unpopularity 

4.  The threat of war crime prosecution

5.  Political unpopularity

And, his generals are going along or having accidents.

Why is a small nuclear action so improbable?

If he uses nukes he becomes a complete pariah government.  The sanctions that China and India are working around for cheap gas and goods gets shut down.  The US says to anyone who violates the sanctions that we will apply the same sanctions to them or anyone violating them.   Pick a side.  Be part of the world economy or shrivel economically and die with Putin.

We would also triple down on arms and support to Ukraine and open the flood gates to all the top end stuff.  
 

I am not sure if we get actively engaged with people or air power, but when someone uses Nukes we might.

CIA works actively on regime change.  
 

Putin’s not crazy, but he is from the Russian school of threatening and bullying.  His inability to accept any reality and reassess the situation means many more will die for his hubris than is needed, and will have to result in regime change at some point.   Hopefully sooner rather than later.
 

 

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2 hours ago, CoTex said:

Ok, so if Russia does that then the US / NATO instinctively responds by what?  Attacking Moscow?

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Evidently the US has had some conversations with Russians about consequences of using nukes. 

We have told them not to, as per the link above, as well as public statements by White House officials.  Also, NATO has publicly stated don’t do it.  And I’d imagine that China has as well.   As mentioned, if he did, we probably flood Ukraine with a lot of stuff.  We would also apply the same sanctions to China and India that we are applying to Russia, unless they completely shut down relations.  China does not want hundreds of millions of pissed off Chinese out of work and in the streets over trade with Russia that is a drop in the bucket compared to their trade with everybody else.

  His mouthpieces on state TV talked about it because Russian was gauging the response of the West, which was not fear, but instead laughter and memes.  When he told the world that he wasn’t bluffing, well anybody who tells you they aren’t bluffing is, in fact, bluffing.

If Putin thought he could drop a nuke and make everybody back down, he would have done it long before mobilization.  Probably either after the humiliation of Kyiv, but definitely after Kharkiv.  

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Simes is a Russian propagandist who runs this group out of Washington, D.C. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_the_National_Interest) which was setup by President Nixon and had his name attached until his family didn’t want to be associated with Simes, etc. because Simes was using the center to attack John McCain over his opposition to Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

 

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16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Shit will probably get really wild after the 27th.  Been kind of following threads talking about this tonight - basically the Duma started passing legislation this week blocking Russian men from leaving as well as mobilization stuff, Putin puts out the mobilization decree or whatever (which had a secret part that the public has noticed, and the secret part concerns the numbers that will be mobilized), and then all of that comes into play within 24 hours.  

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Basically, everything is leading up to martial law and movement restrictions (to further aid mass mobilization) after the end of the referendums.  There is a lot of chatter that Russia will throw the mobilized into Ukraine within the next few weeks, as well as the conscripts into the annexed areas.  We all wondered how their logistics can do it, but apparently Putin is rolling the dice and just going to push them to Ukraine using any means necessary, and they won’t be properly supplied.

 

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27 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

18 years of Putin dictatorship has sank the country, well done dumb ass 

dumb ass could have retired to Switzerland long ago, a billionaire, banging Russian figure skaters and gymnasts. 

Problem is he gets off more for killing people than good sex. Definitely would have been a serial killer if not a high ranking official. Also knows if he retired next ruler probably would have poloniumed him. 

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On 9/23/2022 at 2:07 PM, MillerEP said:
 

 

hell yeah. I mean obviously the guy looks like death, but I remember that first picture from early in the war and then there was another one of him getting hauled off with the other Azovstal defenders and I had wondered if he was still around or had died in a russian prison camp somewhere. \m/ Mykhailo!

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2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

18 years of Putin dictatorship has sank the country, well done dumb ass 

dumb ass could have retired to Switzerland long ago, a billionaire, banging Russian figure skaters and gymnasts. 

There is no off ramp for a dictator. Three options. Die during reign, prison, or death. even if he did try the Switzerland option, he would eventually be tried for his crimes 
 

 

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I posted the full video yesterday, but it’s making the rounds on Twitter.  I fully expect him to either flee the country or be mobilized, because while he’s tried to avoid crossing the line into what could get him in trouble, there’s probably nothing positive in the eyes of the authorities, in terms of what he’s been saying,

Plus,he said he’d flee if he was mobilized, and you know some FSB type is saying “challenge accepted!”

 

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Tangential, but still related to Ukraine. Roger Waters can go fuck himself.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-24/pink-floyd-founder-cancels-poland-concerts-after-war-remarks

Quote

Pink Floyd Founder Cancels Poland Concerts After War Remarks

Warsaw, Poland (AP) -- Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters has canceled concerts planned in Poland amid outrage over his stance on Russia's war against Ukraine, Polish media reported Saturday.

An official with the Tauron Arena in Krakow, where Waters was scheduled to perform two concerts in April, said they would no longer take place.

“Roger Waters’ manager decided to withdraw ... without giving any reason," Lukasz Pytko from Tauron Arena Krakow said Saturday in comments carried by Polish media outlets.

The website for Waters' “This Is Not a Drill” concert tour did not list the Krakow concerts previously scheduled for April 21-22.

City councilors in Krakow were expected to vote next week on a proposal to name Waters as a persona non grata, expressing “indignation” over the musician's stance on the war in Ukraine.

Waters wrote an open letter to Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska early this month in which he blamed “extreme nationalists” in Ukraine for having “set your country on the path to this disastrous war.” He also criticized the West for supplying Ukraine with weapons, blaming Washington in particular.

Waters has also criticized NATO, accusing it of provoking Russia.

 

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3 hours ago, Deej said:

Roger Waters is a piece of shit. 

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imagine what sort of garbage you are to not just think it, but put it down in a letter to  Ukraine’s First Lady. 

Rick Wright (RIP) and Nick Mason  say “hi”.  Waters managed to alienate everybody in the band over 40 years ago.  Nothing has changed.  Somebody should have told him that if everywhere you look there are assholes, then you’re the asshole.

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

I never thought I’d be a David Gilmour guy, but here we are. 

How could you not be?  Even if he didn’t have a Ukrainian daughter-in-law, he’d still be on their side.  Waters became what he wrote about.

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