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56 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Imagine all the rebuilding construction work to be done once the war is over.

Based on my experience, within 90 days of the cessation of hostilities, there are going to be a metric shitton of hardworking mexicans there, already pouring foundations and setting up scaffolding.  My geography might be a bit wonky on this, though.

Who are eastern Europe's mexicans?  (Brisket asks jokingly, but also semi-seriously).

I can't wait for the Caldo de Pollo/Borscht fusion. Or the Chicken Kiev Tacos...

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55 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If the US isn’t going to send F-16s then we need to send them ATACMS.  And it’s not hard to ask them not to shoot deep into Russia - if we are worried, just tell them that if they do, the HIMARS ammo stops coming,

If we sent them ATACMS now, there is little training that is necessary since they would already know how to use the fire control systems, and if they started laying waste to Russia forces in Crimea, it would shut down any Russian offensives from the north or east as they rushed to reinforce Crimea.

 

While I don't think sending F-16s is really suitable, I do think it is (past) time to send ATACMS.  I actually hope we are giving them ATACMS without announcing it, and just giving them a good enough stockpile to really fuck some shit up before Russia realizes that their safe zone has contracted significantly. 

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1 hour ago, morehornsepower said:

While I don't think sending F-16s is really suitable, I do think it is (past) time to send ATACMS.  I actually hope we are giving them ATACMS without announcing it, and just giving them a good enough stockpile to really fuck some shit up before Russia realizes that their safe zone has contracted significantly. 

“We’re not sending ATACMS. We’re sending a different weapon system. It’s called ATTACKEMS.””

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Imagine all the rebuilding construction work to be done once the war is over.

Based on my experience, within 90 days of the cessation of hostilities, there are going to be a metric shitton of hardworking mexicans there, already pouring foundations and setting up scaffolding.  My geography might be a bit wonky on this, though.

Who are eastern Europe's mexicans?  (Brisket asks jokingly, but also semi-seriously).

That would be Bosnian and the Balkan area. They do a lot of construction work in Germany and other countries, a lot of young people left and working in the western countries. I recall while in Germany asking them and they said the whole crew at the site were Bosnians 

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That's a pretty map. This seems like an excellent compromise. The only practical limitation seems to be the rest of Crimea and the Kerch bridge. All logistics, command centers, ammo dumps, barracks, etc in Ukraine are in range. It'll be interesting to see if Russian territory is off-limits, as that limitation hasn't been mentioned much that I can recall.

Edited by KYHorn
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14 minutes ago, Steel Shank said:

Kate Levchcuk:

Image

 

"Transhumanist and Futuristic Consultant. I Fight for Democracy, Equal Rights & Technological Progress."

Kendra Sue Johnson/AKA Kate Levchcuk???

7375789E-EED5-4C4B-91B4-7A454AF65729.png.0b59a4733cdfe0c05e7526c5b2d4801b.png

“I am a Gemini! I am very outgoing, straightforward, open-minded, nonjudgmental, hyper sexual. I’m built for pleasure, mine and yours, to ride and be ridden. 37, 5’7, 140, very energetic, and enthusiastic, no apologies. “

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WJS: U.S. Company Offers Advanced Drones (Reapers) to Ukraine for One Dollar, With Some Costs

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-company-offers-advanced-drones-to-ukraine-for-one-dollar-with-caveat-11675203260

Spoiler

U.S. Company Offers Advanced Drones to Ukraine for One Dollar, With Some Costs

Sale of long-range, high-speed Reaper unmanned aircraft would require Biden administration approval

 
im-714185?width=860&height=573

A Reaper drone returns from a mission over the U.S.-Mexico border last November at Fort Huachuca, Ariz.PHOTO: JOHN MOORE/GETTY IMAGES

By Gordon Lubold
 
 and Nancy A. Youssef
 
Updated Jan. 31, 2023 5:15 pm ET

A U.S. weapons maker is offering to sell the Ukraine government two Reaper MQ-9 drones for a dollar to help the country defend itself as it prepares for an expected Russian offensive.

The deal would require Kyiv to spend about $10 million to prepare and ship the aircraft to Ukraine, and about $8 million each year for maintenance and sustainment of the older model drones, which currently aren’t being used in Ukraine.

The proposal would include a ground control station to operate the drones almost anywhere, according to a letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The proposal was made by Linden Blue, chief executive officer of General Atomics, which makes the Reapers, to Ukraine’s defense attaché in Washington last week.


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The White House, which would have to approve the sale, declined to comment. The Ukrainian government also declined to comment.

A spokesman for General Atomics said the company couldn’t comment on specific deals, but that “we do believe Ukraine needs a capability like the Reaper, and soon.”

“General Atomics has been discussing the requirements of the Ukrainian armed forces with their government for many months, and remains committed to supporting them in any way possible,” said C. Mark Brinkley, the spokesman for General Atomics.

The U.S. has provided more than 700 smaller drones to Ukraine over the past year, including tactical Switchblade drones. Those drones aren’t armed, but can be carried in backpacks and are used to crash into targets. They have been used extensively to defend Ukrainian positions. 

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A Switchblade drone used in a Marine Corps training exercise in Twentynine Palms, Calif., two years ago.PHOTO: U.S. MARINE CORPS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Reaper, however, is a much more sophisticated drone with significantly longer ranges, speeds and capabilities. The Reaper has a wingspan of about 66 feet and can be armed. It can fly for more than 24 hours. The company is offering an older version of the drone, MQ-9A Block 1 aircraft, which would normally cost several million dollars a piece. 

The drones could be used to gather intelligence as well as surveillance and reconnaissance, but have the ability to carry weapons.

General Atomics didn’t say how much of those costs it would receive.

 

The Reaper drone along with the Gray Eagle, also made by General Atomics, would allow Ukrainian forces to conduct strikes and surveillance over Russian troops from a safer distance. The White House has resisted efforts to provide the Gray Eagles, which are currently operated by the U.S. Army, over fears that sensitive technology on board the plane, including the camera, could fall into Russian hands if the aircraft were brought down. 

im-714191?width=700&height=466

The Biden administration has held off approving a Ukrainian request for Gray Eagle drones.PHOTO: 1ST LT. JASON SWEENEY/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Reapers, which are larger and have a bigger payload, are flown by the U.S. Air Force. 

The sale of the drones would still require the Biden administration to approve the transfer of the technology to Ukraine. However, General Atomics is proposing to sell the Reapers directly to the Ukraine government, as opposed to through the U.S. government.

Write to Gordon Lubold at gordon.lubold@wsj.com and Nancy A. Youssef at nancy.youssef@wsj.com

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51 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

That's a pretty map. This seems like an excellent compromise. The only practical limitation seems to be the rest of Crimea and the Kerch bridge. All logistics, command centers, ammo dumps, barracks, etc in Ukraine are in range. It'll be interesting to see if Russian territory is off-limits, as that limitation hasn't been mentioned much that I can recall.

Will we give them enough to do serious work?

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Interesting reporting on an area that is not often discussed: the Dnipro River Islands around Kherson. 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-the-battle-for-dnipro-river-islands

Spoiler

Ukraine Situation Report: The Battle For Dnipro River Islands

Ukraine captured Kherson City in November, but the two sides are fighting over nearby river islands, used by Russians to attack the city.

BYHOWARD ALTMAN|PUBLISHED JAN 31, 2023 8:46 PM
Ukraine Situation Report: The Battle For Dnipro River Islands
Ukrainian Defense Intelligence directorate screencap
HOWARD ALTMAN

The creeping Russian advances in the Donbas have overshadowed an ongoing battle in territory that Ukraine has secured. For the past two months, as larger and deadlier clashes take place to the east, Ukrainian and Russian forces have fought for control of islands in the Dnipro River near the city of Kherson, which Ukraine captured in November.

Russia has been lobbying artillery and mortar fire on Kherson ever since evacuating. In response, Ukrainian forces have been attempting “small naval operations” on some of those islands to “establish control and push back Russian 122mm and 152mm artillery from the left bank,” a Ukrainian military advisor told The War Zone on Tuesday.

Screen-Shot-2023-01-31-at-1.09.03-PM.png
Ukraine and Russia have been fighting over Dnipro River islands for the past two months. (Google Earth image)

In addition, Russians have been launching sabotage raids from those islands, using smaller mortars to attack Kherson, Andrii Ryzhenko, a retired Ukrainian Navy captain and military expert, told The War Zone on Tuesday.

 

Over the past 24 hours, the city was hit by Russian fire seven times and the region 54 times in total, Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Sergey Khlan said Tuesday on his Facebook page. “Fortunately, there were no casualties. But the invaders are knowingly destroying housing and critical infrastructure to avoid the possibility of extinguishing fires or providing medical care to the wounded.”

Previous attacks have hit a local hospital, wounding a nurse.

 

Ukrainian troops tried another such island attack on Tuesday, according to Russian military bloggers and official Russian state media. While the details may differ, those accounts fit with what we are hearing from Ukrainian sources about the islands being hotly contested.

“At about 9 am on Jan. 31, 2023, the enemy landed on our bank of the [Dnipro] in three boats and entrenched themselves in the nearest houses,” the pro-Russian “Two Majors” Telegram channel reported Tuesday. “Our rocket and cannon artillery is working on the enemy right now, the area has been shot.”

DniproIslandAttack1.jpg?auto=webp&optimi
On Tuesday, Ukrainian troops attempted a raid on Dnipro River islands held by Russians. (Two Majors Telegram channel image)

Russian gunners "fixed" the area “for an hour and a half,” according to the Two Majors.

 
 

“Previously, the enemy had already tried to land three times,” Two Majors reported. “Forces up to the company tactical group were involved. The enemy has failed.”

Ukrainian troops “tried to [forge] the [Dnipro] in the Kherson region,” the official Russian RIA Novosti news agency reported Tuesday, citing regional authorities. “The attempt was repulsed.”

 

The Ukrainian military advisor, who acknowledge that another island attempt may have taken place, called the river islands “a gray zone” where neither side has established control.

 
 

Ryzhenko told The War Zone that Ukrainian troops have also conducted small cross-river sabotage operations on Russian military operations and returned. On Jan. 24, for instance, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence directorate (GUR) claimed it carried out one such night raid "with the support of the Armed Forces of Ukraine... in the area of Novaya Kakhovka," upstream from Kherson City.

 
 

But a large-scale Ukrainian river crossing, using pontoon bridges, “is impossible” right now due to the ongoing Russian shelling,” said the advisor. The Russians, you might remember, came under tremendous fire trying to get across the river back in the fall.

“Do you want to be the driver of a tank crossing a huge river on a temporary bridge on barges?” the Ukrainian military advisor asked rhetorically. “Everything is shaking. The Russians are trying to shoot you with artillery. And how fast can you get one brigade from the right bank to the left bank over a temporary bridge? It’s impossible.”

Maybe so, but Ukraine will almost certainly continue trying to wrest control of the Dnipro River islands, to reduce fire and fix Russian forces ahead of any wider maneuver operations by either further to the east.

 

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3 hours ago, Steel Shank said:

Kate Levchcuk:

Image

 

"Transhumanist and Futuristic Consultant. I Fight for Democracy, Equal Rights & Technological Progress."

Futuristic Consultant?

Shit man, their political Fitlump is so much hotter than ours   

 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, The Dog said:

If this is part of the package it puts the land bridge to Crimea in HIMARS/M270 range. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_Launched_Small_Diameter_Bomb

Unnamed sources announced GLSDB in the last package and it didn’t come through. 
 

It’s a relatively new system and hasn’t entered into mass production, so one question would be the volume we can provide.

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Here's a translation from Dmitri from a Russian describing how Ukraine special operators are working to isolate fighting groups in specific encounters:

BTW, I'm going to be sad when we pass on to the next page. I find myself mildly obsessed with @Gatorubet's pic of Kate Levchcuk and her obvious BPD. She has crazy written all over her. Count me in. 

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bbcrussian has an article they call a long read - it's about half as long as my standard post, so I'm not sure what they're talking about - going over some details about how Russian prisoners are recruited into Wagner. 

Some of the more interesting snippets:

"At the end of December, John Kirby, representative of the US National Security Council, put the number even higher, saying the US believed that 40,000 out of 50,000 Wagner mercenaries fighting in Ukraine were prisoners."

__________________________________________

"“Prigozhin told us: ‘When you’re pardoned in six months, you’ll go home, reoffend, and end up back in jail. Then I’ll come back for you. It’ll be a long war, at least 10 years. The army is losing. We’re the last hope. This is World War Three. The whole world’s against us!’”

_________________________________________

"Alexander Paramzin was convicted of murdering his baby son. The court heard that he was motivated by a “hostile personal relationship with his partner.” Ivan Tomilin, killed his brother with an axe. Vasily Svinshchev beat his own mother to death.

Sergey Molodtsov, 46, was buried with honours in his home town of Serov, in the Urals. His coffin was covered with a Russian flag and a guard of honour stood at his graveside.

An obituary published by the local authorities said Molodtsov was a creative man who had worked in a jewelery workshop and loved life.

What it did not say was that in 2017 Molodtsov received 11.5 years in prison for kicking his retired mother to death.

Former security guard Yevgeny Losev, 23, from Yaroslavl region, was buried without fanfare. In 2019 he set fire to a house with homeless people in it, for money. Two people died and he was given a 14-year jail sentence."

_________________________________________

https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/criminals-wagner-fighting-in-ukraine

Edited by SL Xpress
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Spain sending 4 to 6 Leopard 2 A4 tanks. These are not as advanced as the A6 models Poland and Germany are allegedly planning on sending. 

It's a disappointing number, frankly. At one point I had read they were thinking about sending 51 out of storage. Hopefully this is simply a first batch.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-send-up-six-leopard-2a4-tanks-ukraine-el-pais-2023-02-01/

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11 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Spain sending 4 to 6 Leopard 2 A4 tanks. These are not as advanced as the A6 models Poland and Germany are allegedly planning on sending. 

It's a disappointing number, frankly. At one point I had read they were thinking about sending 51 out of storage. Hopefully this is simply a first batch.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/spain-send-up-six-leopard-2a4-tanks-ukraine-el-pais-2023-02-01/

I've heard those 51 in storage are in pretty rough shape. They were trying to sell them a while back and there were no takers. 

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19 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Imagine all the rebuilding construction work to be done once the war is over.

Based on my experience, within 90 days of the cessation of hostilities, there are going to be a metric shitton of hardworking mexicans there, already pouring foundations and setting up scaffolding.  My geography might be a bit wonky on this, though.

Who are eastern Europe's mexicans?  (Brisket asks jokingly, but also semi-seriously).

 

 

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37 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

 

I'm curious what the Austrian president is going to say since the Hungarian and Austrian defense ministers made a joint statement neither country would be providing arms to Ukraine in an effort to avoid escalation. 

https://www.newsweek.com/austria-hungary-weapons-military-aid-ukraine-1778151

Also, fuck Hungary and Austria right up the ass. 

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A few thoughts and questions-

1. The Jerusalem Post has a report that Ukraine sunk five small boats carrying Russian recon and sabotage crews. If true, sounds like Ukraine still has a big Comms advantage. 
2. Gerry Baker (WSJ) has a podcast, “Free Expression” that is often very good. This week, he had an English analysts who said, wrt nukes, “Putin is hyper-sensitive to threats and hyper-attuned to opportunities. On nukes, the west needs to let him know the response and repercussions thoroughly and in detail.”

3. He also said the major nations responded the way they always do:

US: “There’s a war in Europe! We need to respond through NATO!”

Germany: “There’s a war in Europe! It must be brought to an end quickly!”

France: “There’s a war in Europe! France must play a part in ending it!”

The UK: “There’s a war in Europe! We are on the side of the just! (Where’s the US?”

Edited by statsman
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