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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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29 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/these-are-the-riverine-patrol-boats-ukraine-is-getting-from-the-u-s

35’ SURC

3BA49112-98E2-4790-B8E9-739201B5481E.thumb.jpeg.e796df0ad54ccdd51cf9923f90fc5984.jpeg

 

40’ Riverine 

021B4898-9D16-4675-920E-FDCC2FF07FE3.thumb.jpeg.f13b6bf893ee27de517068e5a3a44430.jpeg

this will be handy to drop a couple hundred guys off somewhere on the beach in Crimea

To be honest I was thinking about how helpful they would be opening up new fronts along the Dnipro River. 

I do not feel confident about any kind of amphibious assault on Crimea. Maybe after they get the section of Ukraine from the Dnipro to the Black Sea under their control again. But to me that’s the first priority. 

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8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

To be honest I was thinking about how helpful they would be opening up new fronts along the Dnipro River. 

I do not feel confident about any kind of amphibious assault on Crimea. Maybe after they get the section of Ukraine from the Dnipro to the Black Sea under their control again. But to me that’s the first priority. 

Or let’s think big. Those Norwegian made navel strike missiles are about 800 pounds. And if each of the six 40 footers can carry 1 missile - maybe the Moskva can have friends to play with on the sea bottom. 

For sure they could carry some spike missiles. They don’t weigh or cost much - and I think they have one that goes 15 miles.  Ukrainians seem very innovative. 

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29 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I do not feel confident about any kind of amphibious assault on Crimea. Maybe after they get the section of Ukraine from the Dnipro to the Black Sea under their control again. But to me that’s the first priority. 

Don't think of it in terms of some kind of D-Day style beach assault across a wide front.

This is going to be a river crossing, something the Ukrainians have gotten extremely good at over the past year and have done many times against the Russians, and all of those boats we are giving them are good for that (and we know they have already raided into Crimea with small groups). Also keep in mind that not only would it be a river crossing, but the Ukrainians are going to have up-to-date reconnaissance info from both eyes on the ground as well as drones, and they'll be able to put the Russians within 20 or 30 miles or so of the river banks under HIMARS fire at that point, and possibly even M777 fire as well, so the Russians won't have much of an opportunity to group up or to get armor into place.

 

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don't think of it in terms of some kind of D-Day style beach assault across a wide front.

This is going to be a river crossing, something the Ukrainians have gotten extremely good at over the past year and have done many times against the Russians, and all of those boats we are giving them are good for that (and we know they have already raided into Crimea with small groups). Also keep in mind that not only would it be a river crossing, but the Ukrainians are going to have up-to-date reconnaissance info from both eyes on the ground as well as drones, and they'll be able to put the Russians within 20 or 30 miles or so of the river banks under HIMARS fire at that point, and possibly even M777 fire as well, so the Russians won't have much of an opportunity to group up or to get armor into place.

 

We’re saying the same thing. Amphibious assaults are extremely challenging. These patrol boats aren’t the right tool for that. 

But they can support an attack against weak points across the river. 

Also, I still feel like a lot of the Russian troops are under equipped, poorly trained, unmotivated, and if they face an attack across multiple vectors - especially if their lines of communication are cut off - we could see the same kind of widespread panic we saw in Kharkiv. 

But the main thrust needs to be some kind of successful armored assault along the southern front somewhere. An assault across the river could be successful in conjunction with that, but it won’t be a main thrust. Even hit and run tactics that pin down troops, sow confusion, and call in reinforcements from other areas can be effective. 

As far as artillery and HIMARS, I think it’s fine to talk about their effectiveness theoretically, but it’s obvious the Ukrainians are in an extreme shell diet at this point. I do not believe the Russians would be making the incremental advances they’re managing along the eastern front if Ukraine had 250,000 shells per month to fire off. Quantity is indeed proving to have at least a limited quality for the Russians in the short term in terms of their willingness to throw away human lives to achieve an objective  

I am sure the preponderance of incoming shells are going to go to support the main offensive, and everyone else is going to get scraps for the most part. 

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5 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

I think they realize that no one respects them in any way, so the only thing they are left with is their false belief that people fear them. Some of the Russian Talking Heads earlier were bemoaning the fact people don’t fear them anymore.   Now that we’ve had a year of synchronized Tank turret tossing, they no longer have the ability to threaten people realistically.

Think about it: they can’t even win a war against Ukraine without begging weapons from North Korea, China and Iran.     It’s like America went to war in Iraq, but had to ask the Brits and Canadians for weapons.   If Putin is sitting in his dacha, planning on how he can turn Russia into the world’s biggest pariah, he needs to be congratulated on the work so far.

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4 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I think they realize that no one respects them in any way, so the only thing they are left with is their false belief that people fear them. Some of the Russian Talking Heads earlier were bemoaning the fact people don’t fear them anymore.   Now that we’ve had a year of synchronized Tank turret tossing, they no longer have the ability to threaten people realistically.

Think about it: they can’t even win a war against Ukraine without begging weapons from North Korea, China and Iran.     It’s like America went to war in Iraq, but had to ask the Brits and Canadians for weapons.  

More like if the US invaded Canada or Mexico, but I get your point. 

This isn’t some faraway country. This is a next door neighbor with antiquated weapon systems for the most part other than a few key Western systems. Honestly it’s been an embarrassment for the Russian military as a whole as well as their defense industry. 

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24 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Think about it: they can’t even win a war against Ukraine without begging weapons from North Korea, China and Iran.     It’s like America went to war in Iraq, but had to ask the Brits and Canadians for weapons. 

9 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That would be far less embarrassing

They share a border with Ukraine.  It's like going to war against Canada or Mexico.  Mexico might be a good example - a third our population, similar to Ukraine/Russia, and Mexico could easily have Central and South America backing them up, and the US would be saying on official US State TV, with official US government spokespeople, that after we are done with Mexico, we are heading into Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Brazil, etc. next.

Edit: And we couldn't sail our carriers or destroyers in the Gulf of Mexico, because Mexico sunk one of our carriers earlier in the war.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I think they realize that no one respects them in any way, so the only thing they are left with is their false belief that people fear them. Some of the Russian Talking Heads earlier were bemoaning the fact people don’t fear them anymore.   Now that we’ve had a year of synchronized Tank turret tossing, they no longer have the ability to threaten people realistically.

Think about it: they can’t even win a war against Ukraine without begging weapons from North Korea, China and Iran.     It’s like America went to war in Iraq, but had to ask the Brits and Canadians for weapons.   If Putin is sitting in his dacha, planning on how he can turn Russia into the world’s biggest pariah, he needs to be congratulated on the work so far.

I think this is how Russians feel but in reality this is a proxy war.  The entire Western World is fighting against Russia using the West's older weapons and an army from a country with a population of 40 million. Ukraine is also fighting with one arm tied behind its back as it can't use weapons that can reach deep into Russia and can't enter the Russian mainland.

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27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They share a border with Ukraine.  It's like going to war against Canada or Mexico.  Mexico might be a good example - a third our population, similar to Ukraine/Russia, and Mexico could easily have Central and South America backing them up, and the US would be saying on official US State TV, with official US government spokespeople, that after we are done with Mexico, we are heading into Nicaragua, El Salvador, Chile, Brazil, etc. next.

Edit: And we couldn't sail our carriers or destroyers in the Gulf of Mexico, because Mexico sunk one of our carriers earlier in the war.

Saw this a while back 

 

image.thumb.jpeg.24b119352bd7b56faf0b7d8c5a7c12d8.jpeg

 

 

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don't think of it in terms of some kind of D-Day style beach assault across a wide front.

This is going to be a river crossing, something the Ukrainians have gotten extremely good at over the past year and have done many times against the Russians, and all of those boats we are giving them are good for that (and we know they have already raided into Crimea with small groups). Also keep in mind that not only would it be a river crossing, but the Ukrainians are going to have up-to-date reconnaissance info from both eyes on the ground as well as drones, and they'll be able to put the Russians within 20 or 30 miles or so of the river banks under HIMARS fire at that point, and possibly even M777 fire as well, so the Russians won't have much of an opportunity to group up or to get armor into place.

 

i-loved-you-in-wall-street-martin-sheen.

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35 minutes ago, 686 said:

Dude in small foxhole must have tried to kick the drone grenade away, it removes his leg below the knee. OUCH.

People are claiming that the music playing is "a popular song about mother who buys for a kid a toy-horse without rear leg "

If that's the case, wow.  That's nice and dark.

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WHAT AIRDEFENCE DOING?
 

The movie scenes where some stressed out, sweaty, chain smoking Russian officer makes a bad decision to shoot are seemingly an accurate portrayal of reality. I wonder if Russian friendly fire incidents even exist in Russian media.
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1 minute ago, 686 said:


The movie scenes where some stressed out, sweaty, chain smoking Russian officer makes a bad decision to shoot are seemingly an accurate portrayal of reality. I wonder if Russian friendly fire incidents even exist in Russian media.

Friendly fire is the first drop-down on the incident report 

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2 hours ago, 686 said:

Russians making off with a bag of potatoes get droned. The dudes looking up with the “where is that thing?” look followed by “boom” right next to them never gets old.
 

Re B.O.B. Ep 8 David Keyon Webster:

Quote

In war, soldiers sometimes die in the fever pitch of a fire fight, or by artillery when they’re huddled in a foxhole. Bill Kiehn, a Toccoa man, was killed because he was carrying a sack of potatoes from one building into another.

 

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1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Um, are you sure about that?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gurkha

 

Yes. I worked with both and the level of competence is not the same. Brit's train their dudes to be top notch. Nepali troops are not of the same skill set. Ethnically? yes, they are the same. On the battlefield they are not. 

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16 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes. I worked with both and the level of competence is not the same. Brit's train their dudes to be top notch. Nepali troops are not of the same skill set. Ethnically? yes, they are the same. On the battlefield they are not. 

The dude that was in 14 Peaks - Nothing is Impossible on NetFlix (in which he did all 14 in 7 months) was a British Gurkha.  While that isn't what the documentary is about, they do go into his background a bit in the Gurkhas and the tradition of it.   I don't know very much amount mountaineering, but this was entertaining and interesting to me (as well as a bit insane).   It's an interesting watch, even if only tangentially related.  

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Shareable WSJ link on Bakhmut


The battle for Bakhmut is reaching a critical point as Russian forces close around the Ukrainian city like a vise
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrain...=os3830nhk1usavr&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

The stated Ukrainian reason for fighting here is stupid. The Wagner penal troops will be non-factors in any real counteroffensive. They’re not trained and are useful only for attriting Ukrainian troops and munitions. Russia will never miss them. Their mothers might not even miss them.
 
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will need to be fast, and use superior artillery and mobile armor. Recent Russian conscripts and penal troops will not be able to move fast enough to be factors. It sounds like Ukraine is attriting their own troops and doing Russia a favor by giving their career criminals death sentences. 

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58 minutes ago, statsman said:

Shareable WSJ link on Bakhmut


The battle for Bakhmut is reaching a critical point as Russian forces close around the Ukrainian city like a vise
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrain...=os3830nhk1usavr&reflink=share_mobilewebshare

The stated Ukrainian reason for fighting here is stupid. The Wagner penal troops will be non-factors in any real counteroffensive. They’re not trained and are useful only for attriting Ukrainian troops and munitions. Russia will never miss them. Their mothers might not even miss them.
 
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will need to be fast, and use superior artillery and mobile armor. Recent Russian conscripts and penal troops will not be able to move fast enough to be factors. It sounds like Ukraine is attriting their own troops and doing Russia a favor by giving their career criminals death sentences. 

I think this offensive is coming sooner rather than later. My guess is very early April. So, if that is true, it is better strategically to hold Bakhmut for another week and a half. I agree though: If there isn't an imminent offensive, losing a lot of trained soldiers in Bakhmut was a bad idea.

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I don’t know that Ukraine is losing that many trained troops there, but they are losing trainable troops.
 

A couple of months ago (because Russia has been “on the verge” of taking Bakhmut for a while now), I linked a WSJ article that hinted that Ukraine was using raw troops in Bakhmut, and that raised a couple of eyebrows here. Since then, there have been more such hints. 
 
You have to wonder if the time and personnel would have been better spent in training. Maybe Ukraine thought Bakhmut would fall much quicker, and a short term tactic (use raw troops in its defense) became a long term strategy?

Edited by statsman
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