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camel at sea

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Everything posted by camel at sea

  1. Auburn draws eyeballs on TV in the one sport that matters and they've played for two national titles in the last 15 years. They're a take under whatever paradigm you want to look at. They've been pretty good in the other revenue sport lately, too.
  2. Of all the Big 12 schools that I wish had been able to go too, OSU is at the top of the list. They *feel* like an SEC school. The problem is that they're Mississippi Stat (with a better history and all-around AD), when they needed to be Auburn.
  3. I hope he's being paid well for this.
  4. If the PAC NW schools are willing to take a deal like that, then I think we see the tone from guys like Wilner and Mandel begin to change. For whatever it's worth, they absolutely should take that deal if the B1G is willing to give it to them.
  5. If the Big Ten goes to 20 with the PAC schools mentioned, I think the SEC can take what it wants from the ACC *and* keep the Big Ten out of the South. If the top 4 ACC schools end up in the SEC and Notre Dame is off the board, who could the Big Ten add to grow past 20, that would be financially additive?
  6. That would be my guess. But if UNC/UVA don't want to move, then Virginia Tech gets a look. Georgia Tech might also due to location, academics, existing rivalries, etc. Louisville's AD is one of the most valuable in the ACC but I'm not sure they'd want to add a 2nd school in Kentucky.
  7. The Big 12 is more stable than the PAC because once you get past the schools at the top of the PAC, the Big 12 is a lot better. To whatever degree things are evened out by those schools at the top, that advantage is lost when those valuable schools are desperate to leave. This has been obvious for a while to just about everyone except the PAC apologists in the media - all of whom were happily dancing on the grave of the Big 12 a year ago. If the Big Ten is willing to take UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal, then the PAC is dead. The Big 12 will add the Four Corners. Then we'll see what happens with the ACC. The Big Ten might not be able to raid the ACC - and have the money work - if ND is not involved. With the Big Ten at 20 members, the pie would have to grow dramatically to justify slicing it into even more slices. The SEC could make it even tougher for the Big Ten by taking the Top 4 from the ACC first. If so, then 10 ACC schools + a partial ND is still a viable conference and maybe they absorb the Big 12's eastern wing as backfill.
  8. One solution to the PAC situation would be to let the Four Corners leave (or push them out) and then add four G5s that won't complain about unequal distribution. PAC North schools + SDSU, Colorado State is relatively easy. Those add markets and good-enough academics. Assuming they want to go to 10, then it gets tricky. Boise has the media value but not the academic clout. Fresno might have some CA state politics help. Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii are state flagships and easier for the PAC to stomach. SMU could plant a flag in Texas, has a decent athletics brand, and is a US News Top 100 school. My guess is that they could figure out how to raid the MWC/AAC and make it work. End result of this would be FOX gets its late night games via the B1G/B12, Disney keeps PAC after Dark and the remaining valuable PAC brands, and the Oregon/Washington/Stanford group might end up making more money individiually than anyone in the Big 12 due to unequal revenue distribution.
  9. It's not just the PACN - though Tier 3 is going to market and being negotiated for them, too. They don't have L.A. for Tiers 1 or 2. That matters with respect to expected ad revenue.
  10. The PAC is negotiating new media rights deals. Stanford and Cal are not equivalent, in California, to UT in Texas. If I'm a rights partner with the PAC, or a cable company they're asking to carry inventory, I'm looking at them and telling them they don't have L.A. and that I won't pay for L.A. as though they do.
  11. Having Stanford and Cal remaining in the conference doesn't mean you can charge adequate sub rates (or get cable deals at all) in Los Angeles after the Trojans and Bruins leave. That's like adding Rice and UH and expecting full cable carriage throughout Texas. Beyond that, SC is the biggest Tier 1 brand in the conference. So it's a media rights gut shot on that front, too. The media guys are trying to have this both ways. If gaining cable subs in L.A. is huge for the Big Ten, then the risk/reality of injury to the PAC is catastrophic.
  12. This is from March 2022 - and it was put together by a company (Navigate) that evaluates media deals as part of their job. The Big 12 hired them back in 2015-2016 when we did the expansion discussion that went nowhere. https://nvgt.com/blog/p5-payout-estimates-12-team-cfp-expansion/ Navigate said in March of 2022 that the PAC, with SC and UCLA still in the fold, was only very slightly more valuable than the new Big 12. We know that SC and UCLA were a hugely valuable addition to the Big Ten. That means that they were a huge loss to the PAC. So either the professional media valuation guys from last March were very wrong, or Mandel and all of these PAC defenders in the media are now very wrong.
  13. From Arizona's 247 realignment insider:
  14. The faculty would rather that the football team play in games that they don't watch, against west coast schools, than in games they don't watch against Big 12 schools. If the higher-ups there let themselves be dictated to, by that crowd, then they deserve their eventual MWC fate. That said, it does seem like a lot of the higher-ups in Boulder understand reality. The Denver media isn't putting out "get out while you can" articles without some encouragement. That doesn't mean that they can get their ducks in a row, though.
  15. Yeah. WVU won BCS games in '05, '07, and '11 from a power conference (admittedly the weakest one) and played for national titles after the '88 and '93 seasons. TCU won the Rose Bowl after the 2010 season and finished with a Top 10 team in '05, '08, '09, and '10. The Frogs were in a major conference for about 70-80 years prior to the end of the SWC. Neither SDSU nor Fresno have ever done anything remotely on par.
  16. If they're talking about 14 teams, then they know or suspect that more schools will be leaving.
  17. This is good advice. Eventually - whether it is one year from now or ten - the PAC is going to sustain additional losses. When that happens, what's left of the PAC will be *much* weaker than the Big 12. If you know it's going to happen eventually, you might as well secure your best possible landing spot now. There's no guarantee that the spot will still be there down the road. The money is probably going to be better short term, too. The Big 12 + Colorado and Arizona (the two that seem most likely to make the move) would be in really good shape going forward.
  18. When has Baylor been any conference's headline team? Or are you referring to rape and murder headlines?
  19. The Big 12 + just the Four Corners schools would be a fun, very competitive league. If Oregon/UDub join, too, great, but you'd almost rather not have schools in the boat that don't want to be there.
  20. The interesting thing in this, though, is the Big 12's very public openness to raiding the PAC. The McMurphy "Four Corners" leak happened almost immediately after SC and UCLA announced. Baylor's AD said yesterday (paraphrasing) "you act or you get acted upon." And that NBC/Notre Dame thing had interesting timing, too.
  21. Of course... it's not like the PAC side of that situation will know that Arizona asks the Big 12 for an invite. And it's not like Arizona would say so until they've sent their paperwork. Wilner knows that, though, but has a PAC PR job to do, apparently.
  22. The PAC basically has to at least add SDSU to get a flag back in southern California. But making that choice probably makes it more likely that UW and Oregon become open to leave for the Big 12. The Ducks and Huskies might plug their nose over the two G5 additions if they can get unequal revenue distribution, but then that financial concession signals the Four Corners that it's time to leave. There aren't many good moves left on the board for the PAC.
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