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Texas Jeff

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Posts posted by Texas Jeff

  1. Austin ISD's budget is in bad shape, although IMHO the admin is doing the best they can with the constraints they have.

    Austin ISD thought that their deficit for next year was going to be around $60 million, and they had a goal of cutting $30 million without touching classroom spending to get to a $30 million deficit for next year.  Attendance was less than projected and home values did not go up as much as planned.  They are now an additional $30 million in the hole ... so even with the admin cuts they are looking at a possible $60 million shortfall.

    Once solution to this is to ask the voters to up the tax rate to close the gap.  They can, with voter approval, raise taxes by 9.1 cents -- this is called a VATRE tax election.  0.1 of these cents are "golden" pennies, meaning that the district gets to keep all of the money.  9.0 cents of these are copper pennies, which are subject to recapture.  At Austin ISD's recapture rate, 75% of the copper penny funds will go to the state, and the district will keep 25% of the taxes raised.  The state currently has a surplus, so these "extra" Robin Hood funds won't go towards education, they will just make the surplus larger.

    Austin ISD would get to keep about $41 million of the new tax revenue.  From that bucket, Austin ISD teachers and librarians would get about $15 million and district would spend about $25 million on other stuff (individual specialists, registrars, reducing the deficit).  The state of Texas would get about $120 million.  Austin voters will probably have a chance to vote for or against this tax at the November election.

    The district can't deficit spend forever.  Within a few years, their fund balance will hit a critically low level and there will be no more savings to spend.  Without legislative action, they are turbo-screwed at that point, even if the new VATRE tax passes.

    Also, Austin ISD is currently under a TEA monitorship because of past problems with special education evaluations.  As part of their punishment, the trustees had to agree to a "Lone Star Governance" TEA-approved process.  Part of this process mandates that the board can only spend 50% of their time talking about issues that do not relate to student outcomes.  The budget is a non-student outcome issue.  So if they want to talk about the budget for an hour, they have to also talk about "student outcomes" for an hour.  Talking about student outcomes is great, but at some point in the year you have to buckle down and talk about the friggin' budget for a few days -- and the board has to be very careful to not violate their agreement with TEA to avoid a state takeover.

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  2. 18 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Yes. Just go look at the revised performance results HISD reported where almost every single school did worse than previously with even A-rated schools dropping to a C. Apparently Miles rates his own progress as pretty bad. 

    A word of caution when looking at school ratings .... COVID caused school ratings to be all over the map and probably inflated scores.  I don't understand 100% of the system, but here's the basic idea:

    The state ranks schools in a set of categories.  Pre-COVID, they averaged all categories to get a rating for the school.  School ratings were averaged to get a rating for the district.  So a school could get a F, D, C, B, A in five categories and that would average to a C.  During COVID, "bad" grades were changed to "not rated".  So those same ratings could have changed to NR, NR, C, B, A during COVID for an average of B.  Now, post-COVID, the NR's are being changed back to what they were before so a F, D, C, B, A school is back to a C average.

    In extreme cases, schools got a F, F, F, F, A before the pandemic for an F rating, then during COVID got all NR's and one A ... which gave them an "A" rating, and are now back to F, F, F, F, A post-COVID for a brand new "F" rating.  Give it a few years to stabilize but I would not trust any school rating during the pandemic to reflect the real state of a school.

    I have seen test scores which show that eco dis populations were really hit hard by COVID and are struggling to recover.

  3. 3 hours ago, tbone_ said:


    The planet isn’t going anywhere and doesn’t need anything to be “good” for it. “good for human use of” the planet is what you meant to say.

    Fair enough but I was actually thinking good for all of the plants and creatures on the planet, not just humans.

    Forests, whales, bison, whatever.  Too many of us is not great for them.

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  4. On 5/10/2024 at 12:39 PM, DixonHur said:

    Just a quick survey, am I the only one on this board who thinks population decline is a good thing?

    1960 - three billion people
    2023 - eight billion people

    The planet really didn't need an extra five billion of us.  We obviously shouldn't kill people but a long term slow reduction through slower birth rates is probably good for the planet.

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  5. 20 hours ago, texasdago said:

    ...and McCallum does have a great reputation for their music program.  For AISD, Bowie and McCallum are the better programs until you start looking at Leander, RR, etc.  Again, one hopes that helps with "next steps"

    McCallum sounds better than the other AISD bands because the district has designated them as a magnet, so they get transfers for Fine Arts.  Bowie sounds louder than the other AISD bands because they have 700 more kids than many of the other schools, and in some cases 2000 more kids.  Austin High, Anderson and LASA also have good band programs, they just aren't fine arts magnets or larger schools.

    At McCallum or Bowie, your somewhat talented kid may find themselves in a lower band or chair because the really talented kids are beating them out.  At Austin High, Anderson, or LASA, your kid may be challenged to take a solo or sit first chair.  My kids were at Austin High and I often saw kids respond to a challenge by working harder and leveling up.  Not just musically.  We put kids in charge of trailer crew or game day prep or other leadership positions and watched them mature into the role.  The Austin High band programs are double blocked, so the kids see each other every day and band becomes their high school community.

    If you really want to put your kids in the most award winning bands, McCallum and Bowie and the other AISD bands lose out to Leander, just like the rest of the state.  Leander has some structural reasons why they are doing well and AISD doesn't have their advantages.  AISD is taking steps, with new instruments and putting turf practice fields on campuses, but they are a generation behind the suburbs.  AISD has been lazy, IMHO, by designating magnet schools, and then saying "hey look, wow, they are better than the other schools we have, what a great job we are doing."

    McCallum and Bowie get the spotlight within AISD, but there are other programs that may be great for your kid and shouldn't be overlooked.

  6. On 2/8/2024 at 10:35 AM, High Plains Drifter said:

     

    Not an expert at all, but I think this is correct, more or less: 

    AP is administered by the College Board. (Google them). Teacher has to be "accredited" by the College Board. Not sure what that process entails. Very high level, you take a test at the end of the year, the college decides if your score is good enough to get college credit for that class. Test grade is from a 1 (or maybe 0) to 5. So for example, if you take AP Physics 1, and get a AP test grade of a 3, TAMU might say that is good enough for a physics credit for a history major, but UT would say that is not good enough for a physics credit for a chemistry major. 

    Dual Credit get your kid a HS and college credit for that class if they pass. Kid graduates HS with a college credit regardless of major or school. (Although I would assume a college that cares about its academic reputation would take a close look at the rigor of the class before awarding that credit, but I don't know). 

    Not sure about IB, or how it is different/similar to AP or dual credit. 

    My feeling is that the AP classes are much more rigorous, and harder to get that credit. 

    tldr: Both are good, take both if the kid can, but AP is probably better, but harder. YMMV. 

    I can add a little more .. what you said is pretty much correct...

    The College Board supplies the AP content and the exam at the end of the course.  The teacher can be straight out of school and needs no special training, but usually they are interest in the subject.  The College Board recommends, but does not require, that the teacher have a bachelor's degree in the subject.  Students learn the material and spent time taking practice exams to get ready for the test.  The test costs about $100 if you are not low income and maybe $20 if you are low income.  Students who take the test get a score from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest).   Generally, 3 is a passing score to get credit.  Each college has a list of what tests they accept and what score gets you credit for what class.  You are not guaranteed to get credit for a class.  Some students collect lots of AP credits so that they can max out their college application.

    Dual credit is usually a community college class (like ACC) or something like UT OnRamps (UT's dual credit offering).  The students usually take them in a high school classroom and get "dual credit" for the class, meaning it counts for high school and college.  You take the class and you get a grade in the class, credit in the class, and it is on your college transcript for that school.  Texas requires universities to accept credit classes taught in Texas and has a standard naming structure for them, so they are easy to transfer.

    At our kids' school, sometimes the AP teacher was considered "best" and sometimes a dual credit teacher was "better", so ours ended up with a mix of AP and dual credit.

    The US News "Best schools" list gives a lot of weight to schools that have a high percentage attempt or pass AP tests.   You can collect "smart" kids at a magnet and/or max out AP participation and almost guarantee that school will have a high ranking.  Do the same with dual credit and your school goes down the list.

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  7. 6 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    Why isn't it as simple as seeing why the fertility rate falls once an economy becomes developed?

    It's pretty much that simple, according to the book "Empty Planet".
    Birth rates decline as women gain access to education and birth control.

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  8. DJT will go to zero, give it time.  I worked for a startup for a while. I joined after the IPO and stock crash. We had an actual product and revenue, but an unclear product roadmap.

    The stock IPOed around 18 and zoomed up to 200.  At that point every employee was a millionaire on paper.  Six months later, the day I interviewed, the stock was at 51 cents a share.  Everyone's options were underwater.  The founder and a few early employees made millions.  I got a lot of options at the lower price, so I figured it might work out.  It did not.

    My interview was the standard "talk to six people for an hour each" format.  One interviewer walked in, said "You want to work here?  Sure, whatever..." and walked out.

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  9. 8 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

    Wherein We Ask: WTF Is Going on With DCAD’s Property Valuations?

     

      Reveal hidden contents

    Property tax valuations have increased by hundreds of thousands for some Dallas homeowners, providing quite a shock. What's up with that?

     

    “Oh my god,” a friend texted me Monday morning. “Have you seen the DCAD appraisals yet?” A few minutes later, I got another message on Facebook: “These appraisals are insane.”

    And so I looked at mine. Casa Erickson is in North Dallas, just off of Forest and Marsh. For the last two years, the valuation of our three-bedroom, two-bath, 1,900-square-foot home built in 1961 has been exactly the same. This year, it increased by more than $85,000, or 26 percent over last year.

    “WTF is DCAD’s deal?” another friend asked. Indeed.

    So I asked around. A coworker in Oak Cliff’s Elmwood neighborhood didn’t see any increase, but a friend who lives just three blocks north saw her market value go up by almost $71,000, with most of the increase attributed to land value. My land value didn’t go up at all—the increase is solely in the home itself, which hasn’t seen any substantive improvements since last year. 

    I’ve talked to people throughout Dallas who saw their property values go up substantially. A homeowner in Old East Dallas saw her home’s improvement value go up by $64,000 and the land by $95,000, but she says in reality, “My house is falling apart around me.” Another who lives off of Westmoreland and Jefferson in Oak Cliff says after her protest was denied last year, she made about $8,000 in repairs and saw her market value go up by $102,000 over last year. A homeowner in Capella Park in southwest Dallas says that homes “are not selling” but says his valuation went up by $212,000. Another property in South Oak Cliff jumped from $117,000 to $230,000. 

    And it wasn’t just single-family homes, either. A condo-dweller near Mockingbird Station saw her valuation increase by 18 percent. Bisnow reportedthat commercial property valuations in Dallas County increased by an average of 21 percent, despite the fact that transactions were down by almost 60 percent last year.  Multifamily property valuations were up 20 percent, retail was up about 10 percent, and industrial properties were up a whopping 50 percent. Offices, which have stagnated the most among these non-residential uses, rose between 5 percent and 10 percent.

    So why such large increases?

    Dallas Central Appraisal District chief appraiser Shane Docherty did not respond to questions. (A lengthy explanation of how DCAD conducts residential appraisals can be found here.) But earlier this year, we spoke with Gerald Klassen, a research data scientist with Texas A&M University’s Real Estate Center. He says that part of the issue stems from Texas being a non-disclosure state; if you sell your home, the sale price is not public knowledge. 

    This makes it more difficult for appraisal districts to track trends and immediately account for them. It also means that if you enjoyed a relatively flat valuation for the past couple of years, the new valuation may reflect what the market is really doing in your area. In our case, I wasn’t incredibly surprised—homes have been listed (and sell relatively quickly) for prices comparable to what our home was valued this year.

    “When the market changes so fast, your appraisal district has no way of anticipating it and making the rapid adjustment in assessed values,” Klassen said. “So they’re behind the eight ball—they don’t have a crystal ball that tells them where prices are going to go in the coming year, or in the coming six months.”

    Meritax Advisors partner Ryan Chismark shared a similar sentiment with Bisnow regarding industrial properties. “There’s an argument to be made that industrial values have historically lagged from an assessment perspective,” he said. He theorized that this year DCAD decided to “mark to market” valuations all at once.

    In reality, home sales in Dallas have only slightly slowed—especially in the median price range (which, at $371,000, is up 7.5 percent since last year). Homes spend an average of 45 days on the market, and there’s roughly 2.8 months of inventory in the county. That’s how long it would take to sell all the properties presently on the market. Economists say that somewhere around six months of inventory is considered a balanced market. Nearly all the homes are selling for almost 100 percent of list price—or higher.

    All of that means that the market value of a home has increased.

    But by how much can and should vary by location, which is why protesting a higher than normal valuation is important. It’s highly likely that DCAD will see a new record number of protests this year—the service we use has already started compiling our documents. Most local property tax services will argue your protest for you and only require payment if they are able to get a reduction.

    Compiling the documentation for your argument on your own is also relatively straightforward—download the paperwork, take photos if you think they’ll bolster your case, and reach out to a friendly real estate agent to pull comparable home sales in your neighborhood. You’ll eventually get a date to argue.

    For many, hiring someone—or doing it themselves—is an easy task, even if it might require taking some time off work to plead your case. But Klassen said that the community should keep a keen eye on who is being overtaxed and make sure that those areas that have experienced historic disinvestment and redlining have resources to fight their property tax burdens, too.

    “Somebody needs to help,” he said. “They’re not going to have a lot of money to pay to do the challenge. So somebody’s gonna have to step up and do it pro bono. If we’re that passionate about it, we’ve got to figure out a way to help the folks challenge the fairness of the assessment.”

     

     

    Austin says "Those are rookie numbers".

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  10. On 4/6/2024 at 9:36 AM, CooterBrown said:


    I’ve heard from a reliable source that in the next major bond package (probably 10 years away) there’s a plan for McCallum to be rebuilt into a 4 story high school. They’d build the majority of it on the baseball/softball fields so the school can stay open during construction. When complete, new ball fields and the remainder of the new campus would be built on the old school location. The teams would practice and play at northwest park in the interim.

    McCallum talk not going away...

    Here's the latest presentation showing what they are planning (starts around slide 12).

  11. On 4/3/2024 at 3:20 PM, LCHorn said:

    I was actually thinking, in my reply to @Samson's Wig, that maybe one solution would be more partnerships with AISD that would allow ACC to be on high school campuses for AP or introductory college classes (and maybe AISD could save on labor) but I bet they do that already or the savings just doesn’t move the overall needle by much.  

    Austin ISD offers at least three ways to get college credit, maybe more.  Most are free or cheap and cover the basics for a kid's first year or two of college.

    Students can take AP classes, and then take the AP test, and maybe get credit if a college offers credit.  Austin ISD provides the AP teachers and the class, and the student signs up for the test.  The test is $98, but economically disadvantaged kids pay around $21.

    Students can take ACC dual-credit classes, where the student is enrolled at ACC and high school in the same class.  Most of the "ACC" teachers for this are actually Austin ISD high school teachers with the credentials to teach at ACC.  The student ends up with high school credit and ACC credit, and the ACC credit can usually transfer elsewhere.  I think public schools in Texas are required to accept the credit.

    Students can take UT On-Ramps classes, where the student is enrolled at UT and the school.  UT provides the curriculum.  The student ends up with UT credit.  It's like ACC dual credit but the kid earns UT class credit using UT content.

    The district has a number of "early college" high schools, which are mostly the schools with the highest percentage of low economic students.  At these schools, students can earn an associate's degree from ACC while still in high school, leaving them with just two years left to complete a degree.  Eastside Memorial is across the street from an ACC campus.  I think ACC classes are already free for kids in high school, but I can't remember for sure.

    There's no reason why an Austin ISD student can't knock out most of their freshman year and a big chunk of their sophomore year at almost no cost.  The district also has a fire academy, cooking schools, nursing training and bunch of other CTE stuff for kids that are not college bound.

  12. I was near the Georgia border for the last eclipse. Getting to a spot was easy. After it was over, we had about ten minutes before gridlock started.

    Waze saved us and it routed us some very weird ways, but we kept moving. I had planned a three hour buffer at the Atlanta airport and I ended up walking right on the plane when I got to the gate, but I made it.

    So when it’s over, get moving as soon as you can, get as far as you can before the rush and have a plan. Or … just be prepared to wait.

  13. 2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

    You think school doesn't work if kids miss 5 days?

    I'm sure you know this but I wanted to remind everyone that the way the school gets money is to have students in class.

    The school has to pay for the teacher, the building, the admin, the custodians ... everyone who keeps the school open.  If you miss five class days to go to Hawaii, the school does not make revenue for those days to pay everyone who works there.  Each family taking a few days off across the district adds up to a ton of lost revenue.

    Lots of us donate to our schools above and beyond what is asked, but if you are going to go on vacation and miss school, you might consider asking them what their daily revenue per student is and cutting them a check, just to make up for not being there.

  14. 37 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

    Why do I need an app? When there is still light, use your eclipse glasses if you stare at the sun. When it is dark, take your glasses off. When the light appears again, put the glasses back on. What am I missing?

    Well, you can "eyeball" it if you wish...  I was surprised with the amount of glare from the sun during the 2017 eclipse, and how dark it didn't get.  More like dim.  It was tough to tell exactly when it was safe to look, or when the sun was going to suddenly come back.  The app gives you some kind of assurance that you are in totality.

    I waited until the app said I could look, counted to ten, then looked without glasses.  I put my glasses back on about ten seconds before the app said it was over.  I am paranoid about retina damage, especially for kids who will need their retinas a lot longer than I will.

     

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  15. Consider getting an eclipse app for your phone and practicing beforehand.  I just re-downloaded Solar Eclipse Timer that I used in 2017.  It's not free but it's not that much:

    https://www.solareclipsetimer.com/

    It uses your GPS location to calculate exactly when the eclipse is starting and stopping and plays some recorded messages during the eclipse to remind you when to look around.

    I'm not associated with the person developing this app, it's just the one I picked.  It's nice to have something to tell you when exactly the eclipse is at 100%, and when it's over.

  16. We used More Than A Teacher in Westlake over a summer and it worked well for us.  They have a few locations and they also do some prep classes on campuses.

    The most useful part of their program was being able to sit for unlimited practice tests.  I'm not sure if they still do this or not.  We my kids did it, once you had paid the tuition, you could sign up for as many practice tests as you wanted.  Simulated "real world" conditions helped my kids get used to the timing and pacing.

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  17. Bohemian the fuck do you accurately measure year to year population change with no census or anything? Honest question.

    I think the census folks take an American Community Survey every year, which is like a light census using sampling rather than a full enumeration. I got one once and sent it in.
  18. 1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

    This new one has just about all the bells & whistles on it, most of which we’ll never figure out how to program or use. 

    There is one switch on the center console that you should learn how to use.  It switches the car between Econ, Normal, and Sport modes.  Econ will save you some gas ... but ... alternatively ... Normal and Sport will make the car more fun to drive.

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